Selecting explorers and junior miners

183 posts / 0 new
Last post
Sat, Oct 27, 2012 - 4:25pm Gwyde
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

Explorers don't get any respect

A month ago, I 've written a blog article titled "Gold explorers have a long way to go". This is ever more true since explorers still don't get any respect. Precious metals have been weaker since Friday Oct 19. Broad stock markets were spooked by poor business results: earnings missed, a lower guidance. All of this doesn't bode well for miners. Though we had two swoons, Thursday's rally made up for most of it. On balance our list is down about 2% over the week, which brings the aggregated gain down to 1.58%. The (truncated) cap weighed gain is down less than 2% to 15.17%.

Keegan Res. and Romarco Min. turned from gain to loss again, bringing the balance to a less favorable 11 gains against 16 losses. Argonaut gold digested the Prodigy acquisition well and is up close to 8% over the week. Monument Mining and Medusa mining saw prior gains dwindle. Cariboo Rose deepened its loss.

Gwyde
Fri, Nov 2, 2012 - 8:15pm Gwyde
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

Escaping nicely

Last week we came close to a break-even again, seeing previous gains evaporate. With today's landslide loss on precious metals you might suppose we're deep in the red by now. However we're escaping nicely: the gains accumulated throughout the week more than balance today's sell-off (-1.8%). Over the week the contributor driven explorer and junior miners list adds 0.88% to its gain, bringing us back to 2.46%. The cap weighed result stands at 16.29% (up 1.12%).

Timmins Gold and Medusa Mining rallied nicely over the week. (For Medusa we were saved by the bell as Sydney was closed before the slide of gold started on NYMEX.) Monument Mining also added to its gain while Brixton Metals mitigated prior losses. Aurizon slid into the red again. We now have 10 gains against 17 losses on the list. The worst weekly result was for Rockhaven Res down 8.7%. Could have been worse...

Gwyde
Sat, Nov 10, 2012 - 6:07pm Gwyde
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

Outperforming the market

Outperforming the market is what we collectively try but seldom realize. Whenever luck is on our side, we too eagerly start believing we're gifted somehow. The contributor driven explorer and junior miners list is a collection of picks from various contributors and as such the risk we start believing in our collective genius is somewhat limited.

OK, I just need this lengthy intro to mention that our list adds 6.58% to its performance, bringing us back from closely above break-even to an 8.16% return. Cap weighed we even add 7.28% to a return of 22.44%. Three stocks went from loss to gains, bringing us back to 14 gains against 13 losses. Not too bad: keep in mind that on the GoldMinerPulse list (last graph on the before link) losers outnumber winners by 3:1.

Last week's big moves are:

  1. Brixton Metals went from a 25% loss to 19.44% gain
  2. Romarco Minerals curbed a 5% loss to a 10.2% gain
  3. Keegan Resources came back to the green and now posts a 11.76% gain
  4. Aurcana, Timmins Gold and Sandstorm Gold significantly added to previous gains
  5. On the downside the worst we find is Aurizon deepening its loss by over 10% to -12.6%.

Precious metals came roaring back after last week's beating, yet miners were not too keen in following. Even though they resisted the general stock market drag rather well, Friday was another disappointment for major miners.

Gwyde
Sat, Nov 17, 2012 - 6:11pm Gwyde
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

Running out of luck

Miners have been beaten down relentlessly last week. The broader stock market selling off caused a selling spree among precious metal miners, with many explorers nosediving double digits. Presious metals were holding firm till Wednesday and faced only minor losses on Thursday and Friday. The miner sell-off therefore drove down valuation relative to the metals, with silver miners hit at least as hard.

No wonder we have been running out of luck on the contributor driven explorer and junior miners list. The list is down 8.64% over the week, reverting the comfortable gain to a 0.48% loss. The cap weighed result still stands at a 11.65% gain, but that's down from a 22.4% gain last week. Two explorers (Keegan and Almaden) changed gains for losses again, but Pilot Gold gained to reach its break-even level. This brings the balance to 12 gains against 14 losses and 1 break-even.

Sandstorm gold gave up much of its gains, Aurcana Silver and Argonaut Gold also saw previous gains clipped. Rockhaven and Beaufield Resources considerably deepened their losses.

As for the bitter-sweet dessert: Friday's result on the list is positive (+0.20%) and zooming in on this week's gains (yes, there are a few): apart from Pilot Gold having recovered its losses, Minera Irl is again up double digits cutting its losses, followed by Excellon Resources. CB Gold cut losses to the single digit range.

Gwyde
Sun, Nov 25, 2012 - 2:56pm Gwyde
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

Out of the red...

Precious metals made a nice rally, essentially on Monday and Friday this past week. Miners were following suit, both juniors and major miners. Yet the mid-week was a lackluster show, with juniors weakening while precious metals were essentially flat. Majors enjoyed another uptick on Wednesday with general stock markets reviving.

Yes on balance we advance, turning a 0.48% loss to an aggregated 1.51% gain. The cap weighed performance does better, going from 11.65% to a gain of 14.93%. Gains (14) outnumber losses (13) by the smallest difference possible. Seeing where precious metals are heading, I feel a little dissatisfied about our list performance. What's the merit of keeping out of the red, while more easy profits can be made holding on to silver and gold bullion?

Individual explorer performances:

Keegan Resources again turns loss into gains, rallying nearly 10% over the week. Pilot Gold did even better, rallying 12.5% from its break-even level. Both Aurcana and Sandstorm Res could recover from last week's swoon and again add to their gains. On the downside CB Gold and Minera Irl disappointed with a 9% and 5.4% slide over the week.

Looking at the benchmark section at the bottom, you will notice that both leveraged (3x) plays: the bullish miner ETN NUGT and the bearish miner ETN DUST are posting a loss now. As mentioned by the issuer, these products are not designed for a buy and hold strategy, but to take advantage of directional short term trends, up (NUGT) or down (DUST). By now we have "experimental evidence" of this theorem.

Gwyde
Sun, Dec 9, 2012 - 6:05pm Gwyde
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

Mining shares pummeled

Those among you following my regularly updated blog page on miner valuation relative to precious metals (through HUI/Gold and SIL/silver) have quantified how horribly the situation has evolved. HUI/Gold now stands at 0.254, which is barely above the 0.245 we found at the mid May and the July double bottom of gold in 2012. The brief September recovery of miners has been but a brief bright spot in a lengthy decline. If miners still quote higher than they did in May, this is mainly due to gold up over 10% since then, not to miners having outperformed the metal.

I failed to post last weekly update due to technical reasons, let me put in brief that we lost about 1.7% last week. Dropping Rockhaven Resources (an underperforming 'draft' component) mitigated the figure, yet this operation is purely cosmetic. You will notice that, including "exiled" components and successful exits, the situation continued worsening.

As pointed out above, last week was worse: the list performance drops into the red once more. We've lost 2.78% over the week ending up at an average 1.69% loss. the cap weighed aggregated gain dwindles to 8.96% (down 3.17%).

Romarco Minerals turns from gains to losses, changing the balance to an equal number of 13 gains/losses on the list. The most prominent bright spot in the sea of red is Almaden Minerals up over 10% over the week. Excellon, Seafield, Keegan Res. and Pilot Gold (one of our recent inclusions) also managed to escape the down draft.

At the opposite end Oceanagold saw much (12.7%) of its accumulated gains evaporate last week. All other losses (and that's many of them) are in the single digits over the week. We did end with modest gains on Friday, if that's some comfort in these harsh days.

Gwyde
Mon, Dec 10, 2012 - 9:37am Gwyde
NotRelevant
Offline
-
Netherlands
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
51
241

Best explorer in Ozzy?

Hi Gwyde,

Made a post on this little Ozzy, Kalgoorlie, stock already on the site but i just noticed this forum thread so i figured i might as well mention it here on this thread for explorers and juniors.

The name of the Ozzy stock is Excelsior Gold Limited, stock code EXG. The following link is from the ASX

https://asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=EXG

It contains some of the announcements of the company etc. There is some research out on it so if there is any interest i'll put it in another post. Further to that i can say that on the current 17000 mtr drilling program we still have to see the results of another 12000m and it seems there is still some good stuff in the pipeline. .. Don't ask, i have been in the Ozzy mrkts for ~20y and made a couple of friends that come through.

This particular stock is from the same source that gave me RRL (Regis Resources) at A$ 0.80c (currently A$5+)

I have been in the stock (decently ;-) ) already for ~1.5y. I'm not talking my own book because this thing will fly with or without us turdites .. .. Just figured it to be a nice change from North-American stocks in general ..

Cheers,

F DCG

Mon, Dec 10, 2012 - 5:32pm NotRelevant
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

RE: Best explorer in Ozzy?

Thanks, I'll give it a try on the "Contributor driven explorer & Junior miners list", the spreadsheet that goes along with this thread. You'll notice this is the second stock from the ASX as before I've added an Ozzy junior, Medusa Mining. On Yahoo I only find a German quote for Excelsior Gold. Guess the small shares on the ASX usually aren't covered, so the Frankfurt quote will have to do.

Not many brokers offer access to the ASX. The large caps like Newcrest usually only have a quote on the non-regulated US market (the pinkies), where liquidity is horrible and spreads often are discouraging.

Gwyde
Tue, Dec 11, 2012 - 6:25am Gwyde
NotRelevant
Offline
-
Netherlands
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
51
241

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr

https://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=exg.ax

This will get you the latest price from Yahoo. I checked it and it is the correct one .. ;-)

Just let me know if and when you want some more info on it.

Cheers

Fermin DCG

Tue, Dec 18, 2012 - 3:30am NotRelevant
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

Excelsior gold

Last update to the "contributor driven explorer and junior mining" spreadsheet includes Excelsior gold, with inclusion date yesterday Dec 17 at AUD 0.235. This addition is the only compositional change, not or very little affecting the list performance. The aggregate result stands at -0.42%, only slightly up compared to last week.

Brixton Metals turned losses to gains and Beaufield Res. recovered some of its losses. These were the main moves to the upside. Platinum group metals is last week's major disappointment. Aurcana starts up production at its Shafter site, without too much effect on the stock performance.

Gwyde
Fri, Dec 21, 2012 - 5:58pm
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

All shook up

While stock markets rallied, precious metals plummeted last week. Miners predictably chose to follow PM down. Thank God they forgot to 'leverage down'. As for today, we've seen stock markets correcting with PM recovering, though bleakly. Little improvement for miners, which now tend to follow stock markets... The HUI holds up, but some Canadian miners are a drag.

During this miserable week, we've seen the loss of our 'contributor driven explorer & junior miners' list aggravate to -7.1% against -0.42% last week. The break-even seems ever further away. (Adding curse to blasphemy, I needed to correct for some flaws in the Yahoo download. What is there today for Aurizon and Romarco is quite appalling.)

Even the cap weighed return nearly is down break-even. We now have long term losses outnumbering gains 11 to 15 on the list, with Brixton Metals down to break-even.

As for last weeks gains, the list is short: modest gains for Excellon Res, CB Gold and Pilot gold. Sandstorm Gold manages to uphold. As for the losses, Aurcana made a major slide today, spoiling the week's performance. Medusa Mining, Oceana gold, Timmins gold and Santa's Tanzania Royalty Expl. saw prior gains dwindle. Romarco deepens losses considerably. Other slides are single digits.

Gwyde
Fri, Dec 28, 2012 - 8:04pm Gwyde
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

Bottoming out

Best wishes to you all,

This last update in 2012 only covers two and a half trading days on TSX. US Stock markets are worried about the fiscal cliff. In Europe sentiment turned down today, with the French CAC40 and Spanish IBEX35 among the weakest. Precious metals attempt to gain footing again, but equally suffer in today's downturn.

Miners somewhat pulled themselves together after last week's blow-off. We 've seen the loss of our 'contributor driven explorer & junior miners' list mitigate to -5.36% against -7.1% last week.

Also the cap weighed return is up to 2.2% from a near break-even. We now have long term losses outnumbering gains 15 to 12 on the list.

Aurcana recovered nicely after its slide on Friday last week, booking the largest gain on the week. Beaufield Resources adding 8% to its loss is the worst performer. Nothing very spectacular around.

Hoping for better mining returns in 2013,

Season's greetings, Gwyde

Gwyde
Sat, Jan 5, 2013 - 8:47am Gwyde
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

Nearly flat after a hectic week

Avoiding the fiscal cliff spurred a stock market rally with precious metals joining in less than a day and ending well off the highs on Wednesday. This was an omen to the precipitous swoon on Thursday, bottoming around the London morning fix on Friday. Gold closed the week well above the lows and silver even managed booking a tiny Friday gain, effectively recovering from an intraday slide of over 2%.

Rumors were spread that, given the nascent economic recovery, the FED is to be less inclined to continue its QE3/QE4 bond purchase program, leading to precious metal weakness. I've explained before that managing public opinion is a far cheaper and more effective way to bring down precious metal prices than short-selling into weakness. The latter is only profitable while flushing out speculative longs and covering the short before surging physical demand pushes prices back up.

Miners had their manic rally on Wednesday only to leading to a depressive Thursday swoon. We ended the week with a mild positive undertow, as the short attack on precious metals faltered before the Friday opening on Wall Street.

On balance the HUI index is down marginally over the week. Strength is among silver miners and juniors for the moment being. You find more detail on the GoldMinerPulse page.

Our 'contributor driven explorer & junior miners' list mitigates its accumulated loss by 1.92% to 3.44%. The (truncated) cap weighed return firms to 4.14%.

We have 16 components up over the week against 8 down, with 3 unchanged.
TRX plunging into the red brings the balance to 16 components down against 11 up since inclusion on the list.
Romarco significantly mitigated its loss, while Pilot Gold added double digits to its gains.
In the benchmark section, you notice that both directional leveraged ETN’s are now down since inclusion: NUGT massively because of the mining slump, but even DUST has retreated because of volatility.

Gwyde
Sat, Jan 12, 2013 - 7:54pm Gwyde
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

Friday ruins our week

Despite a poor start for precious metals on Monday, our 'contributor driven explorer & junior miners' list wasn't beaten up too badly and we enjoyed a nice rally on Thursday, as we were well on our way to break-even. Unfortunately Friday ruins our week. The list is still up 1.5% over the week, mitigating the accumulated loss to 1.91% (from a loss of 3.44% last week). The cap weighed return adds up to 5.64%.

Excelsior, our Aussi developer, regains break-even. Beaufield Res. and Platinum Group Metals significantly mitigated losses last week. Sandstorm gold added to its already impressive gains. Aurcana (-7%) and Excellon (-6%) are among the laggards this week.

Gwyde
Fri, Jan 18, 2013 - 6:26pm Gwyde
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

Above break-even

Miners were disappointing once more over the past week, unable to follow precious metals in an albeit timid recovery. Especially silver miners have been lagging the metal, ending their relative outperformance. Our 'contributor driven explorer & junior miners' list surprisingly regained break-even over the past week, though today we face some head winds. The list performance now stands at 1.24%, up 3.15% from a 1.91% loss last week. The cap weighed return is written in double digits again: 10.07%, up over 4% from the 5.64% last week.

Aurizon was past week's best pick, completely recovering from its 26% loss and ending shallowly above break-even. Platinum Group Metals and Romarco also changed losses for gains, as did Monument Mining (though with a less spectacular rise). We now have gains outnumbering losses 17 against 10 on the list. (with no break-even). Timmins Gold and Sandstorm Gold added to their gains and Cariboo Rose significantly mitigated losses.

On the downside, Atna Res. gave back some of its gains, while Beaufield and Seafield aggravated losses.

Gwyde
Sun, Jan 27, 2013 - 8:38am Gwyde
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

Not rewarding at all ...

Gold mining investors lived the worst week of the last six months. Whatever remained of the September recovery is not only wiped away, in relative terms gold mining majors put down a triple bottom, with the HUI index down to 24.1% of the gold price in USD/Oz. Investors were taken by surprise because mines were plummeting regardless the daily moves of the gold price. Gold sliding back towards its end 2012 price level has only been an aggravating factor since Wednesday.

Not surprisingly we've lost 4.6% on our contributor driven explorer & junior mining list, giving back the timid gain scraped together and plunging back into the red: -3.34%. In this perspective it may be comforting that the list is doing far better than the ETF's we use as a benchmark: GDX: -28.92%, GDXJ: -42.16% and GLDX: -50.77% over the same time span, yet being down is not rewarding at all. No less than 5 list components give up their gains since inclusion. We now have losses outnumbering gains 17 against 10.

Silver miners, which had been outperforming in the second half of 2012, had a very hard time lately, with the SIL ETF plummeting more rapidly than silver bullion, after failing to keep track of silver rising in the first two weeks of 2013.

Nevertheless, we may have a few gains on the list last week. Yet I grew wary telling anything about gains. With shorters reading along over my shoulder, it seems little more than revealing the a target list for next week's short attack.

Last week we've also witnessed platinum ultimately quoting higher than gold. However not quite in the way we like: platinum simply held up somewhat better while gold was sliding. I've recently been studying the gold-to-platinum ratio in a blog article on platinum, its scarcity and the industrial needs.

Gwyde
Fri, Feb 1, 2013 - 7:02pm Gwyde
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

Arranging new defense lines

For miners, more hardship was alternating with relief days this week. HUI/Gold marks a new post 2008 low at 0.237. The third leg of the miners slump eventually proves much worse than expected, given $1667 gold (at the first bottom by mid May '12 we dropped below $1540). Until Thursday night, it looked as if this week brought along another disorderly retreat of our mining stocks. Yet it looks as if we'll manage arranging new defense lines.

Today's gains make up for nearly half of the rest of week's loss and our contributor driven explorer & junior mining list only incurs a minor (-1.3%) weekly loss, bringing us to a loss of 4.65%. The cap weighed return even manages to uphold: +0.17%. The cap weighed gains stand at 3.44%. A few of our juniors uphold better than do the (micro-cap) early stage exploration plays.

We still have 12 long-time gains on the list, against 15 long-time losses. Two miners swapped camp: Aurizon Mines is out of the red again, while Medusa Mining gave up gains for losses; since Sydney closes before the London opening, Medusa may still await some recovery. The worst pick this week has been (micro-cap) Brixton Metals, down 22%, while at the up-side Timmins gold adds 10% to its gains.

Gwyde
Sat, Feb 9, 2013 - 5:58pm Gwyde
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

More adversity

Gold has been flat over the week while silver slid 1.3%. Whereas PM mining majors upheld well (the HUI appreciated 0.8%), there's more hardship among juniors and explorers. In our benchmark section, GLDX now is down over 53% since inclusion end Oct 2011. GDXJ is down 42.8% over the same time stretch. Poor comfort for our contributor driven explorer & junior mining list, which is down 2.2% over the week to a 6.85% loss. The cap weighed return is down 1.5% to 1.93%: last profits are eroding away... We only have left 9 list components up since inclusion against 18 down. Three more components dip in the red: Excelsior Gold (our recent Aussi pick), Almaden Resources and Aurizon Mines.

Platinum Metals Group (PLG) saves us from total devastation, popping nearly 25% last week. Platinum has overtaken gold because of tight supply and extremely low stock levels.

Gwyde
Sun, Feb 17, 2013 - 10:19am Gwyde
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

No place to hide

Precious metal miners continue their losing streak, acerbated by precious metals sliding last few days. Yet especially relative to gold, mining majors are hitting rock bottom valuation with the HUI index now at 23.5% of the gold price (see graph); this is autumn 2008 revisited, however without gold well over twice the price of back then.

Whenever majors suffer, juniors and especially explorers are taken to the woodshed. Our contributor driven explorer & junior mining list lost 6% over the week, with a 'great finale' on Friday: a plunge of 2.48%, responsible for over 40% of the loss over the week. The list (mal)performance now stands at a 12.68% loss and even the cap weighed performance drops into the red, now showing a 4.92% loss, down 6.85%, having completely wiped away whatever gains remained by mid-week. Seven list components hold on to some gains while 19 are in the red, with Monument Mining regaining break-even.

Continental Gold and Oceana Gold, two long-time outperformers, dropped into the red. A few more of our elite picks saw prior gains dwindle: Aurcana (down 17%) stands at a meagre 2 ct above its list entry level. Gold streamer Sandstorm also had a bad week, with triple digit gains now gone. There really is no place to hide. We only had five picks avoiding the downdraft over the week, five of them just mitigating prior losses.

Gwyde
Fri, Feb 22, 2013 - 5:54pm Gwyde
Gwyde
Offline
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
809
2324

Capitulation phase

Precious metals continued last week's sell-off, with gold plunging below $1560 on Asian markets on Thursday morning, before some timid recovery set in. The yellow metal is still down 1.8% over the week, while silver even sheds 3.5%. Miners have been plunging off a cliff with the capitulation phase culminating on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday, volatility continues wildly, but price swings are heading both directions.

On balance our contributor driven explorer & junior mining list lost 2.4% over the week, with the loss now standing at 15.25%. The cap weighed return deteriorated to -9.70%, another 4.78% down. Several of the elite picks have taken a serious blow: streamer Sandstorm Gold and Argonaut gold saw prior gains dwindle. The Aussi developer Excelsior gold deepened its loss.

Hectic times for Aurcana, bottoming at C$0.68 to recover its loss and end the week up 8.7%. Brixton Metals made a 48% leap today, turning from loss to a 25% gain on the news of a strategic (2.6M$) investment by Heda mining. It surely saved our day: +2.7% this Friday, mitigating the weekly loss. Medusa Mining also rallied to a 13.7% gain on Friday but nevertheless ends the week down close to 4%.

Gwyde
randomness