Selecting explorers and junior miners

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Sun, Aug 19, 2012 - 3:36am Eric Original
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Ah, my fault for not going

Ah, my fault for not going back to the beginning and reviewing the opening post. I don't think any of these are under $200M. Never mind.

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Sun, Aug 19, 2012 - 4:34pm Eric Original
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RE: That's getting to be a pretty

I appreciate you giving it a thought, Eric.

I'm not so strict in limiting to the $200M market cap, up to $1B may still do, but I don't like to have many mid tiers on the list, less it loses focus. I like First Majestic (own a bunch) and Aurico, but both are getting to be mid tiers > $1B. Osisko (close to $4B) is out of the question.

Endeavour ($750M) an San Gold ($400M) could do. Endeavour is well known in the silver space: the silver miners are but a small club. Yet both of those are on the GoldMinerPulse list already. I try to avoid double coverage. The miners of the GoldMinerPulse list have their composite valuation score and their track record since Nov 2010 included. Adding them on the 'contributor driven explorer and junior miner list' doesn't add much value.

Among your picks Richmont Mines and Lake Shore Gold are not GMP components, but if you have second thoughts on those, I won't take them on board.

Gwyde
Sun, Aug 19, 2012 - 8:01pm
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Richmont and Lake Shore

I'm not a big fan of either one right now.

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Thu, Aug 23, 2012 - 3:40am
Gwyde
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Aurcana: Overreaction on 2012Q2 results

AUN plunged nearly 6% yesterday, which probably is some overreaction to news perceived unfavourable. A second reading of the 2012Q2 results that came out Monday? If any weak point in there, it almost must be the cautious schedule put forward for the Shafter mine start-up.

https://www.aurcana.com/i/pdf/2012Q2FS.pdf (FS) and https://www.aurcana.com/i/pdf/2012Q2MDA.pdf (MDA)

Gwyde
Thu, Aug 23, 2012 - 5:24am Gwyde
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Could you look at Monument

Could you look at Monument Mining as possible addition to the list. They produced 45 000 oz at 300 $/oz and just upgraded their production ability so they are real cash cow and valued below 100 million.

Thu, Aug 23, 2012 - 11:13am Prem124
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Monument mining

Monument mining (MMY) goes into the list @ 0.43 (first quoted price today). They do generate good profits since several quarters and the stock hasn't risen much last few weeks; let's hope the mining witch stays away.

Aurcana seems to recover today (perhaps because I've got a buy limit order in the market that won't be allowed to fill); unfortunately we've got a few laggards among our elite stocks today: Sandstorm and Medusa don't look very well ...

Gwyde
Thu, Aug 23, 2012 - 1:53pm
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Aurcana

I upped my stake in Aurcana this morning. I'm not as patient as you. ;)

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Thu, Aug 23, 2012 - 7:45pm
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Scorpio Mining SPM up strong

Scorpio Mining SPM up strong the last few days, and today had good drills results, this beaten down silver miner might be worth a buy at this point, only a 178 million market cap. SPM has moved from .60 to .90 in short order on strong volume, shares still down a bunch from recent highs, one to watch for sure.

Fri, Aug 24, 2012 - 4:14am zman
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RE: Scorpio Mining SPM up strong

Scorpio Mining (SPM) is being monitored by 'GoldMinerPulse' and as such it is on our valuation list of silver miners, where it gets its composite score and the monitoring of long term stock price evolution on the Miners News page.

Since start of monitoring (ref. date Nov 19, 2010) SPM is currently down 16% (has improved since last update when it was just about average). This -16% compares favorably to the median of miners covered (-38%), placing SPM now in the second quintile of (relative) outperformers. I won't add it to the list, avoiding double coverage.

Gwyde
Fri, Aug 24, 2012 - 6:42pm
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Update to the 'contributor driven explorer & junior miner list'

This week's update to the 'contributor driven explorer & junior miner list' marks an inflection point: for the first time since early April, the average loss on our list is down to single digits. With an 8.68% loss, we are up 2.58% since last week... all of this despite a glitch for Aurcana, down precipitously early this week after releasing the 2012 Q2 results, only to recover almost all of its loss Thursday and Friday.

We also calculate a return weighed by a truncated initial market cap (in order to avoid overweighing juniors moving up to a mid cap range). Surprise: we turned from loss to profit: up 3.92% since starting this list late Oct 2011. This confirms that junior miners (with larger market cap) better resisted the miners slump than (small) explorers. The GLDX gold explorer ETF is still down over 35% since we started off this list.

A new component to the list is Monument Mining - MMY (added yesterday morning as mentioned). MMY starts off with a 4.65% gain after two sessions. We now have 8 gains against 16 losses on our list. Timmins Gold made it to gains, but Medusa Mining now posts a small loss since inclusion. After a rocky ride, Sandstorm Gold is almost unchanged since last Friday.

Gwyde
Sun, Sep 2, 2012 - 6:30pm
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Ending a rocky ride with a rally

Last week's action has been like a rodeo for miner shares. After four down days, we ended the week with an impressive rally. How does this play out for our contributor driven explorer & junior miners list ?

Friday's gains may look impressive in the spreadsheet, yet on aggregate we are up little less than 3%. Moreover half of the gain is due to dropping Wesdome from the selection (as announce last week). The newcomer is Continental Gold. It gets a draft status, since I didn't analyse the miner, nor was it contributed by anyone. CNL gets in at Friday's close. With the average performance now standing at -5.74% and the cap weighed performance up to 5.46%, the worst is over for our contributor driven explorer & junior miners list. In the benchmark section, GDXJ and GLDX (they come close to our focus) are still down a disappointing 33% and 37%. Even factoring in our portfolio changes, we are down only single digits.

We enjoyed a complete recovery for Aurcana. Almaden Resources rallied from loss to gain. Brixton Metals made a 36% leap last Friday, slashing the loss to less than 6%. Among the junior miners Argonaut and Timmins continue firming, but Aurizon disappoints; Eric O sounds pretty downbeat on this pick lately. If he can come up with a better alternative, we will replace Aurizon. Medusa Mining still quotes with a small loss; however this is a Sydney quote (in AUD). The Australian exchange was closed before the rally ignited. We may hope for some gain on Monday.

Gwyde
Sun, Sep 9, 2012 - 2:54pm Gwyde
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At the brink of a break-even

As precious metals have firmed and extreme miner weakness subsided, we're at the brink of the break-even with our contributor driven explorer & junior miners list. After this 4 day session week, the average loss on our portfolio is down to 1.51% (from a loss of 5.74% last week). The cap weighed performance is up to a gain of 12.24% (against a gain of 5.46% last week). Junior miners continue performing better than (early stage) explorers with a tiny market cap.

We now have 11 stocks up against 13 down since inclusion. Medusa Mining, Oceanagold Corporation and Keegan Res. rallied from loss to gains. Continental Gold started its first week with a 4.39% gain. Several of our micro-cap explorers mitigated previous losses significantly: Cariboo Rose Resources and Romarco Minerals, just to name a couple of good examples.

Gwyde
Fri, Sep 14, 2012 - 7:52pm
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Above break-even

Our 'Contributor driven Explorer & Junior Miner' list marks above break-even for the first time in a very long (too long) time. And even now, we have not been sheltered from adversity. A few of the contributed picks made a counter-trend slide on poor corporate news this past week. Yet on average we are up 0.70% (it ain't much) against a 1.5% loss last week. The aggregate gain (weighed according to a truncated market cap at inclusion) we are up 15.52% against 12.24% last week. We have 13 gains against 11 losses on the list, also a first time gains outnumber losses ever since I started monitoring this.

Last week's major moves are: Almaden, Aurizon and Monument Mining making it from loss to gain; Excellon Resources, CB Gold Inc. and Minera Irl Limited are significantly mitigating prior losses and Argonaut Gold, Medusa Mining and Sandstorm Gold are adding to their gains. At the opposite side, Kirkland Gold Inc. and Keegan Resources made a slide, with KGN turning gains into losses again. Beaufield Resources and Cariboo Rose Res. deepened their losses.

Gwyde
Sat, Sep 22, 2012 - 10:01am
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Adding to our gains

Our 'Contributor driven Explorer & Junior Miner' list adds to its gains. The list is at an average gain of 5.6% now. In a mitigated session among juniors on Friday, we escaped the downturn and even enjoyed some double digit gains for Aurcana and Seafield. The cap weighed return (using market caps truncated to $400 M at inclusion on the list) is up to 21.8%. The junior miners upheld better in the downturn than micro-cap early stage explorers and nevertheless enjoyed nice gains since August.

We have gains outnumbering losses 15:9 on our list now. Romarco Minerals and Rockhaven Resources rallied from loss to gain last week. Apart from those mentioned, we have some more double digit gains over the week: Atna Resources, Continental Gold, Sandstorm Gold (+31.6% !) and Tanzianian Royalty Exploration are all up over 10%.

Have a fine WE

Gwyde
Fri, Sep 28, 2012 - 5:44am
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A long way to go ...

Some pennies have rallied to triple digit gains since setting their low in May or July. Always spectacular, but given that most of them were sliced and diced two consecutive years, this is not the end of the story. We've got a long way to go...

I checked out how Gold explorer ETF GLDX has been sliding relative to GDX, the large cap gold miner ETF. Read it at: Gold explorers have a long way to go.

This being said, yesterday I added a few picks to the 'contributor driven explorer & junior miner list'. Stock prices for inclusion will be those at the close on Thursday Sep 27. I didn't do much research on them, so they get a 'draft component' status. Profits are all yours following them up north, but so are any losses when they head south...

First pick is 'Platinum Group Metals Ltd' (PLG) at US$1.06 (closed flat). They are bringing new reserves into production at what should be low cash costs relative to their peers. Platinum and Palladium have been weak for over a year and the supply disruption at Lonmin's mine has only temporarily boosted PGM prices. Platinum at marginal production costs however means that global volumes are unlikely to rise... which again is supportive for the future price level.

When looking for PLG, I stumbled across Pilot Gold (PLG.TO on TSX). This 'left-over' from Fronteer Gold is run by the same geologist team of the acquired explorer. That does bode well... Pilot gold goes into the list at C$1.68 (closed down 0.03). I should have found this one earlier, as they are up over 50% since announcing good drilling results on their project in Turkey.

Last pick is Oroco (OCO.V); it closed flat at C$0.26. Oroco develops a two gold resources. One is at Xochipala in the Guerrero gold belt, south of Mexico City. It's only miles away from the 'Los Filos' gold mine of GoldCorp. A future acquisition target? Don't take my word for it.

The three picks will be added in tonight's update.

Gwyde
Fri, Sep 28, 2012 - 5:39pm
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Flat on the week

This week has been mitigated for miners. We started out with a swoon on Monday, with losses extending till Wednesday. Yesterday's rally revived hope, but today juniors couldn't confirm. However we've had luck on our side this Friday, with three double digit gains on the list: Minera Irl, Rockhaven Res. and Seafield Res. (Yet 'luck' is relative since Rockhaven merely bounced back up after a slide last week.)

The average gain of the 'contributor driven explorer & junior miner list' now stands at 5.81% (flat after the 5.61% last week). The weighed return is at 20.62%, down slightly from 21.79%. We have 16 gains against 10 losses, with new comer Platinum Group Metals (PLG) still at break-even. Contributors still feel comfortable with their picks, they confirmed, even when at a loss.

Over the week, our "benckmarks" GLDX and GDXJ are down 2.9% and 2.3% respectively: we've nothing to be ashamed of.

Gwyde
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 - 8:18am
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Juniors not convincing ...

Over last week, gold adds $10, while silver is up just 2 pennies. The enthusiasm for miners seems to be waning, with the HUI index leveraging down any minor loss of the yellow metal. The HUI/Gold ratio slid back to 0.288 after peaking at 0.296 by Sep 21. Junior miners had Thursday's session attempting to compensate for a mitigated week. Friday's $10 slide of gold however drove explorers and miners back to their shelters and we face a 0.89% loss on our 'contributor driven explorer & junior miner list', turning red the net result for the week. Our list is now up 4.92%, down 0.90% from the 5.82% last week. The cap weighed return however gains a modest 0.64% to 21.27%.

The list now counts 14 gains against 13 losses: Keegan Res, Oroco Res and Almaden minerals slid back into the red. Platinum Group Metals now posts a tiny gain (against a break-even last week). Rockhaven Res. posts a near 24% loss over the week. That loss is well compensated by Sandstorm gold, adding double digits to its previous gain and now up 124% since inclusion. The stellar performance of young Nolan Watson's gold streaming company is what makes our cap weighed return keep up.

I recently checked out how Gold explorer ETF GLDX has been sliding relative to GDX, the large cap gold miner ETF. Read it at: Gold explorers have a long way to go.

Gwyde
Tue, Oct 9, 2012 - 9:29am
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Reporting on some of the explorers or junior miners

Almaden Minerals Ltd.

TICKER: AMM:TSX; AAU:NYSE

Almaden Minerals Ltd. is an exploration company generating new mineral projects with world-class potential. Its focus is new gold, silver and copper prospects in the western half of North America. The company has over 40 properties in its portfolio, highlighted by an exceptional Eastern Mexico land package, which includes the Ixtaca gold-silver zone and the El Cobre gold-copper project. This strong portfolio of exciting projects is the direct result of Almaden's commitment to exploration. Well-financed with five company-owned drills and an integrated in-house exploration team, the company has a proven discovery record and excellent risk management.

https://www.theaureport.com/pub/co/463#quote

https://www.almadenminerals.com/

Minera IRL Ltd.

TICKER: IRL:TSX; MIRL:LSE; MIRL:BVL

Minera IRL Ltd. is a holding company of precious metals mining and exploration companies focused in Latin America. The company is led by an experienced senior management team with extensive industry experience, particularly in operating in South America. The group operates the Corihuarmi gold mine and the advanced gold projects Ollachea (in the feasibility stage) in Peru and Don Nicolas in Argentina, currently in the permitting stage following the completion of a successful feasibility study.

https://www.theaureport.com/pub/co/2635

https://www.minera-irl.com/

Continental Gold Ltd.

TICKER: CNL:TSX; CGOOF:OTCQX

Continental Gold Ltd. is a Colombian-focused mining company with aggressive exploration and pre-development activities underway at its high-grade flagship gold project, Buriticá. Extensive exploration is also being carried out at the company's highly prospective Berlin and Dominical gold properties. Continental Gold carries eight additional gold properties in its portfolio, bringing its quality land position to over 197,000 hectares. Results from Buriticá include 14m at 446 g/t Au and 166 g/t Ag.

https://www.theaureport.com/pub/co/2406

https://www.continentalgold.com/

OceanaGold Corp.

TICKER: OGC:TSX

OCEANAGOLD PROVIDES UPDATE ON DIDIPIO PROJECT

(MELBOURNE) OceanaGold Corporation (ASX: OGC, TSX: OGC, NZX: OGC) (the “Company”) is pleased to provide a progress report on the Didipio Project in the Philippines where pre-commissioning activities are underway.

https://www.oceanagold.com/assets/documents/filings/2012-Press-Releases/121004-Didipio-Update.pdf

Note: Always keep in the back of your mind that TheAuReport is most likely paid to publish this information. It is little more than an extra distribution channel to bring their press releases to a wider audience.

Gwyde
Sat, Oct 13, 2012 - 3:59pm
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Down with the herd

Last week the best result for the S&P was a break-even on Thursday. Precious metals also booked their best result on Thursday, adding a tiny gain. This has been dismal week overall and especially for miners, again leveraging down the loss of precious metals. Before starting with the damage control, first a list change notification.

One contributor had second thoughts on his pick and asked me to withdraw it from the list. He felt bad because of having overlooked my PM for some time. So out went QMX Gold Corp. Next I checked out on the exile list on what explorers just might recover. I picked Kaminak to fill the empty line. Just for the record: Kaminak comes back at its original entry date and stock price level. Moreover, Kaminak's current stock price is 2 cts lower than when it was exiled. In doing so, I'm not cranking up the return on the list.

Our average return now stands at 3.64%, down 2.17% from last week: we seem to be sliding back to a break-even. The weighed return stands at 16.98% which is down 3.8% from last week. There's some damage in all segments: explorers and junior miners. The recent picks Platinum Group Metals and Pilot Gold saw prior gains turn to losses. We now have 12 stocks up against 15 down on the list. A few counter-trend gains save us from worse: Monument mining and Medusa Mining add to their gains while Keegan Res. mitigated its loss over the week. Among the benchmark items SIL ,the silver miner ETF, again quotes at a loss since the start of monitoring. Among the best long term performers on the list: Aurcana and Sandstorm Gold gave back some of their gains last week.

I'm considering Eurasian minerals and Renaissance Gold for inclusion. Any thoughts? Somebody would like to link his name to these picks?

Gwyde
Sun, Oct 21, 2012 - 8:08am Gwyde
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Flat over the week

It has been a rocky week for precious metal, ending with an option expiry for miners (and ETF's). The futures expiry follows next Friday, both may add some volatility, which usually doesn't bode well. On balance gold is down 1.9% over the week, while silver shed 4.2%. As stock markets sold off Thursday and Friday, the greenback strengthened, mitigating the loss of precious metals for international investors.

These circumstances generally imply a most general sell-off among miners. This week we escaped the fatal verdict and got along with the list almost flat over the week. The loonie weakening did support our TSX quoted miners on Friday. Our contributor driven explorer and junior miners list is now up 3.5% since inception (against 3.64% last week). The cap weighed return stands at 16.89% (against 16.98% last week). Losses approximately balance out gains.

Gains: Minera Irl, Seafield Res. and CB Gold substantially cut their loss while Keegan Resources turned from loss to gain. Consequently, we now have 13 stocks up against 14 down on the list. Kaminak is up 3cts since we picked it back up. Atna Res. adds to its gains.

Losses: Argonaut gold eased only little after its planned acquisition of Prodigy. Aurcana, Medusa Mining and Monument Mining saw some of their accumulated gains leak away. Brixton Metals Corp. and Beaufield Res. deepened their loss.

Gwyde