Will most likely not happen until around May 2013, if not sooner. If you have noticed the price of silver data from the last 10 years, you'll see that we go from peak to next peak roughly every two years, give or take a few months.
Going Beyond $30-50 Range
Bix Weir just announced the delay of the definition of "swaps" until Dec. 20th or Jan. 4th, via e-mail from Bart Chilton.
I knew this was going to happen... So, how are we going to take action here so that we can force this to happen anyway?
In other words, I stand by my conviction as stated here.
Huh? I thought they already defined swaps:
Embry et. al. (yeah, I know eternal sunshine pumpers) say silver will double next year:
I wonder if it's an indication of Sprott's plans with the PSLV shelf filing.
Thank you for finding it! Lots of the experts completely missed it. Reading further into the fine print, "Spot-month limits will be effective sixty days after the term “swap” is further defined under the Dodd-Frank Act." Why does it need to be further defined? Because "swap data needs to be collected." Why in hell didn't they do that months ago? I'm sure we all know the answer to that question here.
My feeling is, if "swap" is indeed defined fully for silver at this time, then participants must be in compliance by Jan. 17th. There is a comment noting increased volatility to watch for during this time. Embry can be right only in this instance. Something tells me this is not it, however... I still stand by my prediction unless it can be proven that silver swap is indeed fully defined at this time.
Ted Butler finally fucking gets it! I tried to tell him the connection 3-4 years ago, and he wouldn't listen as evidenced in his writings. He has to eat crow now.
I got this today from GATA:
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
In commentary from his proprietary newsletter published at GoldSeek's companion site, SilverSeek, silver market analyst Ted Butler realizes that JPMorganChase's overwhelming short position in silver is essentially a U.S. government operation under the supervision of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, of which the chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Gary Gensler, whose commission supposedly has been investigating the silver market for years, is a member. Butler's commentary is headlined "A Few Questions, One Answer," and it's posted at SilverSeek here:
The first paragraph reads as:
"Please read this article carefully because I’m disclosing for the first time that the U.S. government has given JPMorgan the green light to manipulate the silver market. This fact explains the shenanigans in the silver market. It answers all the questions and exposes this tawdry affair for all to see."
Ted backs up my assertion that assuming ceteris paribus, silver will not go up over $30/50 until about April NEXT YEAR, and I still stand by that. I hope I'm proven wrong.
Coin shops, people. Clear them out!
I don't know if it's a FedGov operation as a Federal Reserve / banking operation sanctioned by FedGov, but that's just nit picking. It's clear the operation is being protected by the gatekeepers who are well aware of the game being played. The only real question is how long they can maintain control as the markets wake up from their slumber.
So, how the hell do we break out of this without waiting another year and a half possibly?
I think it happens when physical demand (supply shocks in physical markets) overwhelms the paper markets.
I don't know that it's going to happen this year... We still have "We buy gold" sign holders working the main streets out here. I see that by now, silver is approaching $34 (watch out for margin calls or engineered announcements to bring the POS back down). It's possible that it might approach $40 by New Years, and that's not taking in consideration any black swans landing to eat, but really, I feel like it's still going to take getting to April before it hits $40, and maybe clear $50 by April of 2014. Look at a Kitco chart to see how the events of peak-to-peak activity occur. It looks very similar in shape and duration. I know that past performance doesn't guarantee future performance, but with this manipulation operation, it could be repeated. It looks like it is. However, any black swan can change that, but it has to be big enough to force the hand.
I think the best way to force this is simply removing all sources of silver for the financial markets. Period.
Don't forget the possibility that gold might be revalued as a Tier 1 asset under Basel III come January 1, 2013.
I knew something like this was going to happen. NOT surprised... Hence, I stand with my guess on the $50 hurdle.
After Friday's close (12 Oct 2012) of 33.48 which was a -.52 dip I decided it's good enough... The sideways movement of this beast has been eating at me for a long time and so Saturday night I just went on and burned up those worthless FRN's that I've been accumulating and got another one of those blue cases from Canada. Yes I know the spot dropped at the open in Sidney and the way I look at it every time I do a buy it always drops! So I view it like this... I did my part to make sure it would go on and fall so we can get this out of the way to finish up this round JPM raids! Best thing about it all.... JPM ain't getting this box!
Good for you. Whether you get it at $28, 33, or 37 really doesn't matter a lot unless you're trying to buy in volume from very little in your stash. At this point in my stacking, the amount I can afford to buy at one time is but a fraction of one percent of my total stocks, which isn't very much. I'm just a wage earner, so I'm fortunate that I got nearly all of it when it was below $20, most of it below $10. I've been busy with personal capital formation rather than my savings for the last 4-5 years.
Look at the post dated 9-9-12, when I said, "It's possible that it might approach $40 by New Years, and that's not taking in consideration any black swans landing to eat, but really, I feel like it's still going to take getting to April before it hits $40, and maybe clear $50 by April of 2014."
See? A little over an hour to go, and markets have closed for the next day. We're nowhere near $40. Not even close! I told you...
I have said elsewhere in article comments on this web site that silver hitting $40 by April was a possibility, but didn't feel very strong seems to be holding true so far. Remember, the title of this thread reads as "Going Beyond $30-50 Range." Apparently, I just reread this and realized that I put down 2013 instead of 2014. Whoops. It was supposed to be 2014, not 2013. There is no way it would happen before then.
I'll add another one here, since I see this needs some explaining.
Look at the 12-year chart on silver, and notice the interim peaks of 2004-2006, 2006-2008, 2008-20011, and now we have 2011-?. One of my sources (Louise Yamada?) noted that we had touched the trend line a third time recently and broken through. The feeling is that the third time is typically the time when things level out, trade sideways for a bit, and then take off from there. Look at each incident, and you'll see that there was a vertical expansion of the range of movement, but usually within range, like the 50% retracement each time it happens. That's pretty predictable so far. It's possible that it could take off soon, but the problem is, summer is typically a weak season for gold, and things shape up around end of September with the start of Indian holidays after the crop harvest there. http://www.321gold.com/charts/seasonal_gold.html However, I wonder if we have started to see a timeline expansion of peak-to-peak activity. See, the first two times, it went two years from peak to peak, but last time, it went from 2008 to 2011, three years. What will it be this time? Three years, or maybe three and a half years or four from 2011 before we reach the next interim peak? That's my gut feeling, though I would like to be proven wrong JUST ONCE so that I can get out of the big city and start living the life I have set for myself.
Remember, this is a manipulated market, so you can see how predictable it is. Imagine what this interim peak will look like.
Is turning out like I thought it would, except I didn't think it would go this low. But just as well, as it prompted my visit to the local coin shop to buy more TWICE in the last 20 days. I have left the big city as of Sunday. I finally vacated my apartment and am out in the country right now. The next time I go in or get near a coin shop, I'll buy some more, but I bought enough for this month, so I'm satisfied. I plan to go back into the big city to supply up and work out something with someone, so I'll buy my silver there before I come back out again.
Again, as I mentioned before, we may not see getting out of the $50 range for probably another 10 months, if not another 15 months, which I hope the latter is not the case unless there are two things that I can sell for more money to last me that long. In that event, I will be buying quite a bit of silver during this time. But because I'm not working right now, I'm buying very small amounts.
April of 2014, and we have not broken out of the $30-50 range. We're not even into it. I was hoping that it wouldn't happen, but I suspected that it was a strong possibility that it might be another 15 months, say September-October of 2015? I'd say this is a correction that will last 3-4 years, as I mentioned previously. Not surprised... I'll check in on this again in 6 months to a year from today. It has really helped to minimize contact with the silver happenings, except for the bare minimum of information needed to decide to buy or pay more bills down for the month.
I managed to find a way out of the big city without silver. I now have my own travel trailer in the free and clear, living nearby a farm rent-free while I work there. I spent a few weeks working at a medieval fair recently. Things are going well so far.
I am now living on the road, doing renaissance festivals. I was able to use the money to pay off ALL short-term bills incurred this year, and I'm taking advantage of this price decline to lock in and pick up more silver next week when I'm in the big city. I'm still sticking with the timeline of Fall 2015 before things really get underway. If this continues, hopefully, I can continue making money and saving it in cash and silver (maybe using the cash to pay the Jeep note down faster).
I've been looking at the 10-year chart and noticing the size of the movement of this period from interim peak to the next peak, and this is MASSIVE. It looks like the next run-up could take it past $100, assuming things remain the same (I have to wonder how the total capture of Congress by the Repubes will turn things in the next few years).
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