Ivar's Charts

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Fri, Dec 12, 2014 - 1:52am
ivars
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On war theme-one can be sure

On war theme-one can be sure events unfolding form spring 2015 will affect gold price positively, but if the scenario below is true, it shall peak about 2018 and then decline as new monetary system takes place, including USD and Yuan as reserve currencies, possibly also German mark ( EUR) and Indian Rupee, though that can also happen much later ( Tetrarchy in Roman Empire) . My bet is maximum at around 1600-1700 USD/oz.

No in fact I am looking for realistic options how this WWIII will not be like WWII, but something more drwan out less clear and less damaging.

So far I have managed to figure out that this is what should happen in Western front ( for Russia). Some gains, some losses, all in all some kind of face saving peace (for Russia) shall take place after turbulence around 2018 IF Putin is reelected in 2018. Today, much of his warlike actions stems from this reason as well, to keep nationalists at bay and ensure own power. He has to give in to some nationalists demands( Novorossija, temporary occupations in East Europe) in military terms, and to some in creeping invasion terms.

I do not see the big war with China either as any big war will be either Nuking each other out( makes no sense) or destroying Russia ( makes no sense for Putin). But there have to be some hostilities with China after peace in Europe is achieved, and they may end in Russia losing real or economic/monetary ground. For Putin, keeping country from splitting apart and being colonized directly with some gains in the West and some losses in the East will actually be a boon.

I sincerely hope it turns out this way as this means also mild war in Europe. Pretty reluctant from both sides, so to say. I can only hope that in 2018 we find ourselves ( Latvia) still in Western camp, not as province of Russia. Too much to ask?

If this happens, Putin would have outplayed those bankers who hoped Russia will engage in aggressive war and be deleted from the map. Seems it is not an option any more, given the nuclear arms. Creeping conventional wars, though the scale of one with China is difficult to predict. In essence, China does not need big war to control Russia via immigration/economic deals/Finance. I hope Russia will accept it and not go for ALL in option.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Dec 15, 2014 - 2:40am
ivars
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Let us see what happens

Let us see what happens here.. GSR seems to have found a support along older up trend.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Dec 15, 2014 - 11:16am
ivars
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Perfect bubble..this is not

Perfect bubble..this is not sustainable and will crash..meaning ruble will gain in value; why- i can not say ( I have voiced some options like nationalization of Bank of Russia and putting current liquid assets behind the ruble) but it will happen and sooner than I thought. I am doubtful with this speed they even have time till New Year. However, looking at the speed of convergence they (Russia) need to do something basically within 1,5 months max (then USD Rub may be already in 100 region) . Which makes it end of January . Or Russian financial system will be destroyed as will the ruble as Putin's regime. No country whose debt loses value so fast can (in CB fiat system, currency is backed by state debt plus foreign reserves) withstand the pressure without doing something unorthodox. Spending USD to contain this falling knife or raising interest rates above current 10,5% will not help much..too late.

Anyway, there is not much time if oil even stabilizes at 50 USD level which is unlikely..more likely it will shoot down to 40 then pop back to 50.

Forecast Putin 62 years old, USD /ruble 62 Oil 62 was fulfilled even faster then expected.

While I was posting this ruble went to 63,2...then back a little to 62,6 in less then 30 min.

On December 18th Putin has live annual press conference which usually lasts 4 hours. WHAT will he SAY with this chart in hands of everyone?

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Tue, Dec 16, 2014 - 2:27am
ivars
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So the spike of this bubble

So the spike of this bubble was broken off via unprecedented CB action. As I said, it was not sustainable. But the cost for achieving this is nothing short of dramatic. But if oil continues its downward move, its at most buying some time.

Even with rate hike to 17% it does not seem this USD RUB bubble is over, as , from going to 58 its back to 62 this morning..at best, if oil keeps moving down, there will be the indicated flag in the chart giving Russia about 1 month time to think while the economy stalls totally ( how can it move with 17% Volcker type rate..but this is not USD they are playing with, but RUB which is based on future oil prices, in essence). But they may have gained some time...It seems there is already a civil war going behind the scenes in Russia. This hike will damage both CB, government and Putins support, but first two will suffer more and become dispensable.

Fiat is getting expensive in Russia, they are tightening during coming recession due to oil prices/inflation.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Wed, Dec 17, 2014 - 2:35am
ivars
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@AM this last picture looks

@AM this last picture looks very very credible. Either end of December/early January (up to January 12th) must be the last chance to find new bottom for gold silver. That should be THE SETUP for the BIG TRADE.

Which coincides with Putin's ability ( the time window he has) to play poker waiting for everyone to show their intentions

https://itar-tass.com/en/economy/767403

Quote:

MOSCOW, December 17. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to make no special statements on the current situation on the financial markets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has told the Kommersant newspaper.

Putin is expected to voice his stance on the issue not earlier than during the annual question and answer session due on Thursday, the report says. Peskov confirmed that the event is to be held “routinely.”

Putin has about 2 weeks to prepare and then 10 days during Russian holidays while ruble will fluctuate around USD/RUB 70. So all in all he has about 3 weeks to 1 month time before Ruble falls significantly lower.

My bet is Putin will sound very unalarmed about finances, nonaggressive about Ukraine in his December 18th 4 hour live press conference and that will help to bring the gold down the final leg. I wish I had dry powder by end of December/early January as the spike down will be pretty sharp/short term. There are some hopes to get it.

BTW FOMC today may already start some movement in down direction if they talk more about interest rate increases.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Wed, Dec 17, 2014 - 11:49am
ivars
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I think someone has to take

I think someone has to take care of getting rid of David Rockefeller prior to Putin even thinking of invading Ukraine. His son, Nelson Rockefeller was taken care of on June 13th, 2014 when he suddenly was unable to control his airplane and crashed near David's house.

Seems that this did not stop USA to continue pushing hard line against Roths in Russia, so hard that even war which Roths- and China- need might not happen as USA will take over with no shots fired.

So now its David himself who needs to be removed. Obama is Roth guy with a task at hand.

Lets see if he needs to change CIA head for that, after so many damaging reports about torture..though it was in the past.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Wed, Dec 17, 2014 - 12:27pm
ivars
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Yep, someone in CIA stands in

Yep, someone in CIA stands in the way of the execution of procedure I mentioned above; it could well be that CIA is actual David Rockefeller Praetorian Guards.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/12/22/torture-truth

Quote:

Obama has made plain in his public statements and in his executive orders that torture, which is how he forthrightly labelled the program, was unacceptable. But, in leaving matters to the Senate, he left the truth open to debate. He further complicated things by appointing John Brennan to run the C.I.A., even though Brennan, as a top officer in the agency, had worked closely with George Tenet, the director during the worst excesses of the program. Last Thursday, in a rare press conference, Brennan called the C.I.A.’s past practices “abhorrent” but declined to say that they amounted to torture, undercutting Obama. Democrats called for Brennan and other C.I.A. personnel to be “purged.”Senator Mark Udall, who sits on the Intelligence Committee, said, “If there is no moral leadership from the White House, what’s to stop the next White House and C.I.A. director from supporting torture?”

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Wed, Dec 17, 2014 - 1:04pm
ivars
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So it started, the Praetorian

So it started, the Praetorian guard of Rockefellers:

Quote:
Nevertheless, Donovan began to lay the groundwork for a centralized intelligence program. It was he who organized the COI's New York headquarters in Room 3603 of Rockefeller Center in October, 1941 and asked Allen Dulles to head it; the offices Dulles took were on the floor immediately above the location of the operations of Britain's MI6.[9]
Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Dec 19, 2014 - 5:32am
ivars
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Interesting short term chart

Interesting short term chart from Societe Generale via Zerohedge. They suggest that divergence of oil and gold prices may spur Russia to sell some of its gold, and that sales have already started in W1 of December. As Russian CB reports- if it does- their gold reserve level to IMF next month about December Levels, we may know for sure if anything has happened ( GOFO went positive briefly in W1 of December):

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-18/russia-has-begun-selling-its-gold-according-socgen

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Sun, Dec 21, 2014 - 1:02pm
ivars
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It is an old story, so why

It is an old story, so why was CIA torture report released by Senate Dems NOW? The interview shows its unexpected and ..in my opinion is aimed to force some changes at CIA personnel or the way some of them operates; with the single simple aim of Praetorian guard (CIA) taking down the Emperor ( David Rockefeller). They may succeed also in blackmailing someone within CIA.

Mike Rogers- why was the report released NOW? It may have violent consequences

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Dec 22, 2014 - 4:03am
ivars
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I am still following the

I am still following the bitcoin gold overlay to predict gold prices; here is the outcome today:

If there is one more dip it will be as sharp or even sharper as spike into 1900. And it is going to be very soon, within January 2015 of early February latest.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Dec 22, 2014 - 12:03pm
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Please check this out for me

I invite everyone to check this out. The cost is only $7 and Forex is definitely not for everyone but please give this your consideration. Thanks!

https://www.wizardoftrading.com/tfmetalsreport.php

Mon, Dec 22, 2014 - 12:16pm
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What is that?

I get a website telling me to install something, and when I try to close the window it makes it difficult to leave, opening another window with audio.

Are you sure that isn't adware/virusware?

Tue, Dec 23, 2014 - 4:03am
ivars
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I think first I conceived

I think first I conceived analogy with gold here-November 7, 2013:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/609044#comment-609044

And potential predictive abilities ( i am not basing them JUST on the chart, but on potential and need for debt based system to perpetuate fiat by adding reserve currencies ( real reserve currencies not like EUR, but ones supported by sovereign military power as well) (fiat= paper money whose value is derived from future development of the reserve currency economy, hence only interest is paid for its creation, its not backed with 100% of current liquid assets but with confidence that next (if 5% average interest) 20 years that said economy will perform well);

Then more correlation here (starting by overlaying inception of bitcoin with inception of USD) :

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/609046#comment-609046

Then here after bitcoin crashed as i had predicted:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/610147#comment-610147

Here, with current gold value and next 6 years already visible on bitcoin chart plus some bullshit about bitcoin CB:)

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/612882#comment-612882

And here- May 14, 2014- what it told me, was that gold is not going go up before going down significantly from that level... and since then I have been waiting on sidelines ( and gold has followed the bitcoin chart)

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/618289#comment-618289

And then todays post. That is it. What is interesting is possibility to place the 2013 april peak and the beginning of bitcoin on USD beginning and 2011 gold price peak.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Sat, Dec 27, 2014 - 10:01am
ivars
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Revolution from above in

Revolution from above in Belarus due to economic pressures, including currency. Is this what is going to happen in Russia as well very soon?

Lukashenko has much longer autocratic experience then Putin; he can show way; remember, until 1941-1942 Mussolini was idolized by Hitler as "older brother" who was showing the way fascism should operate.

I guess some 20 key positions in the state replaced in one day! A clear message to Putin, no less!

https://eng.belta.by/all_news/president/Top-officials-appointed-in-Belarus-government-central-bank_i_78439.html

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Thu, Jan 1, 2015 - 11:26am
ivars
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A bit strange gold fork-but

A bit strange gold fork-but captures some trend channels well:

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Jan 2, 2015 - 5:46am
ivars
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Since the main USA export is

Since the main USA export is USD, relative increase in its value is good for the USA economy; e.g. trade deficit will be paid off with less USD.

Besides, FED rate increase may lead to additional inflow of capital and so reduction of money supply in emerging etc nations causing deflation there.

https://en.people.cn/n/2014/1230/c90000-8829613.html

In 2014 USD was the only currency that increased in value - by 1,5%- relative to gold.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Jan 2, 2015 - 5:58am
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Gold is not Dead, But

Hear you go folks. Martin says we are not done yet. Bottom not in. Let's see

QUESTION: Hi Marty,

I’m 47….basically one question……….is Gold over for my life time?

Should I just sell it?

What does the ECM say about Gold after big bang?

thanks for all you efforts.

D in … Australia.

ANSWER: No. Gold is still a vital component for what we face. My problem is purely with the gold promoters who get all crazy yell about $50,000 gold and pretend they would be right but for people like me and the bankers who manipulate it lower for not real reason.

Gold has performed according to our forecast which is a total global interconnected model. You can no longer forecast anything in isolation. It is entirely connected. Gold will decline further and shake the promoters from every tree. For a real bottom, it has to look like it is dead. The mainstream bastion of buyers are gone. The promoters have wiped them out as they have always done. They are no different than the stock brokers during the Great Depression who kept telling people to average in all the way down – but never sell. That is just not viable advice.

The key for gold is to make sure you use coins. Governments are hunting everything. They are connecting the dots. Gold refiners now must report every ounce in and out. The governments know about the underground system. They are hell bent on destroying it.

Gold will rally on the benchmarks as laid out in the special report on the International Precious Metals Report. Just keep in mind that you should NEVER put all your assets in one investment.

Tue, Jan 6, 2015 - 2:33am
ivars
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Lets see if this strange fork

Lets see if this strange fork holds now to the upside. If gold miners- possibly due to falling oil prices- are in green now, then gold prices first should make a dip then rise ( as costs go down, but raise with geopolitics =war in Ukraine). This all should play out pretty fast.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Wed, Jan 7, 2015 - 11:08am
ivars
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Experimental silver fork:

Experimental silver fork:

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
randomness