Ivar's Charts

As I begin to look at your charts....my first questions  (if you have already addressed these questions please post the link so I can just go there and read to save time and trouble)

it looks like your gold and silver charts are forecasting a hyperbolic rise in price just before the 2012 presidantial election. with silver doubling  and gold almost doubling (1700 area to 3000)

Question. .....  What is it about the 'presidential election' that will cause gold to blast off ...and silver a month or so before gold.?

Is this the only 'major event' that will be  the cause for the price move?

To be honest , i do not know but will try to present my view-since the correlation with election cycle is not my wish, that is just how charts came out.

First, the doubling of silver and almost doubling of gold are bubble, so based on herding of the opinions what is to come- similar herding happened in May with silver, when everyone was saying this is cheap, people in China, India buy up all worlds silver in retail etc.  The value after election for Gold settles at 2700 for some 6 months ( from 1800, so 50% increase), Silver at 45-55 fo almost 9 months ( from 40, so about 25% increase) . The peaks are just bubbles, self feeding expectations.

So we can say, short term prior  to the increases are bigger, then after elections they settle at somewhat lower, but still high values. 

The only economic principle I have surely derived for myself and that seems to come up again and again is that the USA ( not even mentioning most of Europe, Japan) will be in recession from Q1 2012-onwards. A long one.

So the obvious question for the president and congress and senate and "independent" FED chairman who serves TILL January 31, 2014 ( so he will be the same) what tools and at what scope they will use to get economy moving. (by the way, gold chart makes a significant dip in January 2014 so who will head the FED seems of crucial importance in January 2014).

So far I have learned of 2-QE and stimulus. Stimulus is anyway partly becoming a form of QE because by end of 2012 most US debt will be bought by FED. FED is getting more powerful as recession progresses.

My interpretation then:

1) USA in recession 2012  Q1, Q2 , Q3 but there is no QE nor stimulus- but they are definitely promised by Obama if he gets reelected

2) Republican candidates (also to House/Senate) are perhaps trying to keep a strict line of no more stimulus/QE,   as government debt continues to grow and next ceiling will be needed already in 2012. So gold waits as the outcome is not sure, while silver is more prone to mood swings being more affordable. 

Anyway, Obama seems a weak candidate but if he wins, stimulus and QE is coming.

3) With recession continuing, life gets tougher, and Obama's chances to win by promising more QE -> stimulus grow, so a bubble starts to form in especially silver but also gold , that predicts as usual infinite printing of USD, but as usual forgets about the restriction placed by the USA debt  and reserve currency status, whose buyers/owners other that FED does not like too fast USD devaluation.

4) in the end, whoever wins, moves on with stimulus/QE  as neither winner is really and alternative to each other and does not see any real other short term "solutions"-hence prices remain elevated.

5) If I remember correctly, in May 2011 with silver, and in August 2011 with gold bubbles, there were no events at all that would have been responsible for corresponding 88% and 27% increase in prices in the top of the minibubbles, so presidential election could be a triggering event, but the underlaying cause is continuing long term credit bubble deflation, recession and how to get out of it.

6) the price of gold after 2014, jau 31 shooting up seems to indicate that Bernanke will stay for 3rd term and that may mean that
Obama wins his 2nd.

How does is sound?

Ivars I'm seeing a possible blind spot in your approach here. You speak of "the charts" as if they are written in stone and events come to meet them instead of the charts being prompted by events.

That is true. Every market, represented by a price/time chart, is a system, some essential part of whose behavior as whole is represented in this chart. In such complex systems, predicting events and than trying to predict chart long term is impossible. That would be physics. Here, on the contrary, the dynamics of charts themselves might be predictable based on some assumptions about the market and , most importantly, that its properties does not change too fast, so past patterns allow to predict future. That is how i get my charts. Now, what events might create charts similar to the projection of past into future- that is a question to a historian of relevant subject. I am not that one, but feel free to interpret what You see on the charts.

On other hand, charts drive events. E.g. traders look at charts and make decisions , than look at charts again. Bernanke looks at stock prices and releases QE or does not. etc. Happy are those people who does not have to look even at their income/spending chart and can make decisions which are independent of these numbers, but I do not think there are many such.

If something totally does not make sense, or if the chart happens to be wrong already in first months since its charting, it has to be looked at once again, and either the deviations can be explained ( like in my 1929-2008 comparison chart deviations in stock prices  from what would be expected are caused by QEs), or, the chart has to be redrawn -its dynamics are different- or prediction just does not work with this particular chart, or even that market (too small, too Gaussian=efficient=random-unpredictable).

but as the price of silver is rallying it seems that more short positions are being added. Is this figured into your projections at all?
I see silver rallying into the high 30's before the short position increases even more and we get smacked down again to 35. your thoughts?

How can this be figured in IF  the chart I based my short term prediction made on September 27th here https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/60954#comment-60954 was made on March 13th, 2011?

1) Silver may fluctuate around 30 USD (+- 3?) for 1 month or so, then move up sharply about 5 USD to 35-40 and drop again, now to little higher level of 33-35 +-5, and not change much anymore this year.  So the bottom will be kind of close from time to time during October.

2) Gold, on the contrary, seems to be posed for relatively steady growth till 1800 in November, around which level  it should fluctuate for few months (+- 50 ?) .

See, above I have predicted sharp move up by 5 (10) USD from October 27th or so, than drop again to 33-35+-5 in end of December 2012. Sharp short (daily) spikes in between are unpredictable from long term view. But I could not have predicted its connection with concrete actions- though logically, if silver or any asset moves down, there are more sellers than buyers around -so yes, of course, they will bring  current positive silver price blip caused by Euro zones last weeks debt problem projection on USD, down. 

Sincerely, I do not recheck the chart of silver presented here as long as prices behave as predicted-so I do not have much to add.

Its still valid until the newer longer term https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/78025#comment-78025takes over: