Obviously, this is a WAY downfield question, so don't everybody get all worked up that I'm thinking of getting rid of my PM's...
The question is, in the next financial system, after the chaos, if/when the metals go parabolic and fiat dies etc... when there comes a time to liquidate PM's (say for me, currently paying mongo high rent in NYC, to buy a suburban home), what's the real process? I've been reading about 28% capital gains at present...
Now we can all speculate about witch hunts, and TPTB raising tax levels, and confiscations and such down the road... and more than a few of us probably have traceable rap sheets at Gainesville and APMEX... Now I know you could sell some on ebay, or in person for cash at the local coin shop etc, but if you're talking about serious weight - how would you practically liquidate PM's? Is Uncle Sam necessarily involved?
Part two of my question is real estate, particularly 1st home ownership. Is home buying in the next couple years a good thing? Worth trading in the PM stack for? I shudder to think of a high mortgage and shaky employment outlook (even for "in demand" fields") contrasted with having a few years rent stacked up and knowing you have that liquid security.
I'm at an inflection point, I guess - recently married, mid 30's, gearing up for procreation - and think about this stuff all the time. Love to get feedback/advice from y'all.
possibly getting a loan against your pm's, might be a way to go, no capitol gains anyway.
anybody else have some thoughts on this?
to your question..........we are speculating that the dollar will die, we don't know when and we don't know what black swan event will cause the end.
The outcome is unknown to what this will look like in the aftermath.........we may not have a tax system in place, we may continue with the dollar valuated against PM's.......No one knows.
Don't put your life on hold waiting for an unknown outcome......live to stack, stack to live!
I think you raise some good questions and it's interesting to note how our station in life can magnify these questions.
I've not been stacking too awful long, but I am persisting, and hold some of the same questions, and, as SilverFocker wisely put it, I'm trying to live and just "be" and exist through all the uncertainty.
I guess there could be several routes of liquidation...some we see and are cultivating (such as relationships with local coin dealers, etc.) and others we only speculate about.
What if, in a great move of exceptional timing, a good portion of us stackers time the coming run up just right, right before the whole thing pops, and we all hit the market trying to liquidate. I don't know if my logic off here, but would that overload the market? Are all the larger-scale vendors/outlets going to be able to service the lot of us trying to liquidate?
One would think, but in such a mania, even at ridiculously high prices, don't people "get in" too late, meaning, there'll be buyers? That's the hope I guess, but this thing could ramp up and happen exceedingly fast.
Perhaps hopes in that states would remove some of the cap gains tax burdens (such as similar to what we're seeing in Utah and other states where they are trying to pave the way for these things) is another option.
As far as the real estate, I'd suppose it depends upon how practically mobile your family is/can be and what your threshold is for what will continue to be an unruly market. I'm currently a homeowner in the 'burbs looking to get out to acquire land, but not too far from my local city here. Depending upon your local market and just where you intend to go and whether your employment situation gives you much leeway, if you can save while you're renting, that's never a bad thing.
Get in a housel....hyperinflation sets in.....you got a fixed rate......hopefully have employment......you can pay off that note in fiat much quicker. Land/houses around me lay fallow.....there's not a lot of movemet in these markets which could be a good time to get in. Again....depends on your location and longer term desires. Whatever you do, expect that THAT could be the place you'll be for a good bit, as conditions here deteriorate.
But, speaking for myself, if I were looking for a home now, I would not look to the suburbs myself, given where things could go. It's not a fear thing for me, but an intentional desire to be a more faithful steward of the resources I/we've been given. And I can only barely touch the surface where I currently am. My connection to the land is a dimension of my being right now that is currently neglected.
Sometimes the greatest solace in the face of uncertainty is to be active doing something meaningful.....something intentional (stacking/preparing physically, communally, emotionally, spiritually)- even if we can't figure out all the pragmatic angles.
Thanks guys -
It's tough to know the right answers, and I guess a prudent flip side to that is hopefully being able to spot the wrong ones. Steady as she goes for now... but I think it's healthy to think a bit down the road and not get too stuck in the obsessive reading the daily PM blogs, oggling charts, and stacking. Good to remember we still have everyday lives to lead!
At what price in FRN's would you consider a good place to liquidate? $75 $100? $500?
No way I'd sell at $75, not enough ROI.
Perhaps at $100, but what does that say about the nature of paper problem we're having at right now at $30? It's 3x as bad?
Does $500/oz silver have any implication as to what has happened to the POSX? What does selling your stack get you back in paper-denominated assets? If the dollar is complete horseshit, then nothing, really.
Point is, by the time your stack is "worth a shitton" you're not going to want to sell it for even 5x spot.
On the flip side, maybe the Cartel just decides to take it down to $6 and keep it there forever. What does that say about the Cartel? And in what world are we living in where the banks (maybe it's Bank by then) have that much more power? On paper, unless you bought at $3/oz, you basically got your ass handed to you. On paper.
As far as I know, silver is extremely stable, will always be on the period table and has no half life. It's a fact that every fiat currency will go to 0; it's mathematically guaranteed. It has no half life, cause it never had a life, and it's not stable cause it's fake, fraud and counterfeit.
Just my opinion.
Housing is going down further the next couple of years. The downward pressures on housing far, far outweighs the upward pressures. You might ( <- note the word "might") possibly see a bottom in housing in a couple years. But that's if we're lucky, and I think the odds on that are small.
Granted, housing is location dependent. But for the U.S. as a whole, IMO we'll see an 80% fall in prices from the peak. At least. Right now I have to wonder what's going to happen to housing prices once the Feds stop backing home loans, when the Greece situation visits here. These home loans are 95% of the loans out there these days, and when that stops, housing crashes further.
As far as the Tax system not being in place, don't bet on it. One of the things which survived even the Fall of the Roman Empire was the Bureaucracy. Another thing which survived was the general mindset. Even the Barbarians considered themselve Romans, for a long while. And another was the foundations of Serfdom. Keep that in mind for your Mad Max scenario.
When I plan on liquidating, I plan on doing it the same way as accumulating. Slow and steady, over long periods of time. Hopefully I'll have the option of doing so.
The simple truth is the government has no clue how much I have in PM's and certainly has no clue what I paid for what I have. Here in Washington you can purchase up to $10,000 in PM's with no questions asked; no name, no id, no address, etc.. So if and when I had to liquidate my PM's, the government has no way to know what I owe if any. Even if they did see some sales records from silver, they can't prove that the silver I currently own is that silver. This is really an issue for people like the Turd who profit from trading but it's really a non-issue for people like me who only own 1oz. of physical silver and no gold ;)