Tulving posted this on their website tonight:
We Have Been Shipping To Customers An Average Of About 100,000 Ozs Of Silver Every Working DAY Since Sept 23.
Copied the page here, because they update their site often: https://docs.google.com/document/d/11asBTZkq9JdLLcx6CIgtVTU0DOXgNdvzw4fANQVL4Mw/edit?hl=en_US
This is incredible. For those that aren't aware, Tulving has been sold out of 90% silver for many days now. APMEX has been sold out of 90% for a number of days too (they just started listing fresh inventory yesterday). It also looks like APMEX has been moving 100 oz bars like hotcakes. Provident Metals sold out of 100 oz bars as well.
The US Mint now lists 1,012,000 ASEs sold this month already. They listed ~700k on Monday and that means about 300k in the two days following. We know that its safe to say that once an ASE hits the market, its rarely ever melted down and put back into a highly leveraged block that trades on the paper markets. Anyone keeping a running count of how much physical is going into stronger hands?
This is insanity. I can only wish that silver dips lower.
Just more solid evidence that the bulls are correct and demand is soaring in spite of falling prices and bearish outlooks and views.
If Tulving goes dry, shortages will be widespread, and premiums will skyrocket. You can count on that.
I can't wait for this thing to turn around again and get going the other way. It's going to be epic, IMO.
that allot of metal is being sold, but I no longer trust anyone I do not know personally, in pumping or dubbing down the numbers.
The #s may be correct, but I would think the spread would be getting a wider gap reflecting the numbers......a buck or two rise is not much, and when your talking this much volume the spread is lower according to most posted prices.
Aaaaand then wait till we hit $50 again, better yet $100 and everyone that thinks silver is a trade will be selling their coins cause they need to pay rent or buy gas. We've been hearing about this supposed supply squeeze forever it seems. It's just noise. There's plenty to go around for the 1% of the 1%'ers. It will never go "mainstream" cause people are fucking idiots and haven't the slightest clue about what we Turdites know in our heart of hearts.
I see it today @ 30.........it's really sad that people are doing this. A good buddy of mine has a pawn shop.....a girl came in with 4 ASE's last week, she says I want to sell these....he asked what she wanted for them...She said I think they should be worth 30 bucks for all 4...........he skinned out 3 tens and I guess those were turned into a 30 oxy.
As long as actual metal can be withdrawn from the comex for spot price and turned into Bars and coins, it will be THE spot price. The game will be over when it's over. You won't see the end coming. As Hemingway said, "a man goes broke slowly, then all at once". Position yourself accordingly. If you have never witnessed a commercial signal failure, you'll not soon forget it afterwards. Everyone short... hedged producers, speculators, everyone... goes broke almost instantly.
We metalheads are a skeptical bunch to begin with...let's not forget to apply that skepticism to our "friends" in PMs too. "Limited edition", "supplies running low", "only 2 per customer" and "sold out" have been used forever by slickricks to market shortages...which may or may not actually exist. I worry about Tulving's honesty...
CALIFORNIA COIN DEALER AGREES TO SETTLE - 06/92
Hannes Tulving, Jr., president of Hannes Tulving Rare Coin Investments, Inc., a California retail marketer of numismatic coins, has agreed to settle Federal Trade Commission charges that he created and maintained an artificial coin market to induce the purchase of coins at inflated prices.
Under the proposed settlement filed in federal court, Tulving would be prohibited from misrepresenting, among other things, the degree of risk or any other fact material to a consumer's decision to purchase any investment offering. The order also imposes a monetary judgment, which will be partially satisfied by the payment of $260,000 over a five-year period.
In August 1990, the FTC filed a complaint against Tulving and his company, Hannes Tulving Rare Coin Investments, Inc., of Newport Beach, alleging that they misrepresented the degree of risk and appreciation of their coins, falsely represented that the figures published in their coin price guide reflected the actual wholesale market price of their coins and that their customers' portfolio updates reflected the current value of the customers' coins; and that they failed to maintain a reserve of funds to enable them to honor their buy-back guarantee. The case against the corporate defendant, Hannes Tulving Rare Coin Investments, Inc., is still pending.
Under the terms of the proposed consent order settling the charges against Hannes Tulving, Jr., he would be prohibited from, among other things, falsely representing that his coins are an excellent, low-risk investment or that they have consistently appreciated in value; that portfolio updates given to customers reflect the current value of their coins; and that the prices he charged for his coins were at or near the prevailing market price.
He also would be prohibited from falsely representing the profitability of any investment offering, the services he offers in connection with such an offering, or the earnings of any of his customers.
Further, the proposed order would prohibit Tulving from falsely representing that he has a reserve of funds sufficient to honor any buy-back guarantee for a substantial number of customers, if he offers such a guarantee; misrepresenting any other fact material to consumers' decisions to purchase any investment from him; and from representing that the FTC endorses or approves his activities. Misrepresenting the terms of the settlement also would be prohibited.
The proposed settlement would further require Tulving to place a written notice on all coin-related promotional material to alert consumers to the risk of investing in rare coins. If he offers a buy-back option, he also would be required to disclose clearly and conspicuously the following notice on all promotional material:
"BUY-BACK OF COINS: We cannot guarantee that, when you desire to liquidate your coins, we will be able to repurchase them from you. Moreover, if we are unable to repurchase your coins and you are forced to sell them to another dealer at the current wholesale price, you will probably receive much less for the coins than what you paid for them."
Defendant Tulving has agreed to the imposition of a $10 million judgment. In light of his recent filing for bankruptcy and the absence of security, however, the Commission cannot be assured that it will collect the full judgment. The $10 million judgment against him would be non-dischargeable in bankruptcy -- that is, he still would owe it. Under the settlement, Tulving would pay $50,000 within 14 days of the entry of the court order, $210,000 over five years, and the remainder at the end of the five years.
The Commission vote to file the consent order was 4-1, with Commissioner Deborah K. Owen dissenting. Owen stated, "I find no financial justification for reducing the defendant's required monthly payments from $5,000 to $2,500 after two years. More- over, I disagree with imposing, on paper, a monetary judgment that may be 'empty' in practice. Such an empty judgment is a departure from recent practice, and could give the impression that the Commission's monetary judgments are illusory."
is all you can do once they put their eye on you. You have no power to resist, so who knows if he really did anything "wrong." Maybe he was a proprietor of precious metals. The government couldn't keep its promises that it would redeem its certificates for metal so it had to stop promising more than full faith and credit. hmmm.
The FTC says selling gold, which has no counterparty risk, is bad because he is tricking a consumer? laughable if you think about it. They cant defile the product so they defile the purveyor. Maybe a coin has a scratch; maybe he can't buy it back later? OOOOHHH sounds risky in a world where only paper can pay your taxes and fines and groceries.
Maybe gold does carry a counterparty risk -- it makes you a traitor to your own governments plans.
Sorry, I know this is a trading thread. But even a trader might like some shiny if their brokerage account becomes inaccessible.
there are tons of wise guys across the metals market boards who have this theory and that. Its all just speculation.
You can buy rounds for $1.60 over spot for Christ's sake.
When that number starts to go up dramatically then I smell the bullshit, otherwise all this is heresay and pumping. Besides its all in the timing. I only care about 'the event' when it begins to become believable.
I am tired of this nonsense. It misleads people and makes them think that they have to learn all the ins and outs of the bullion dealing business. Your never going to figure any of that out sitting in front of a little monitor and relaying rumors. What a waste of time. Like the 'Miners are going to go Ballistic!' crap we all have been hearing for years.
Get real. This is mostly based in peoples' excessive pride. The beleif that they are smarter than anyone else and have the inside track. Give me a break.
The signal for me is when the big firms (Tulving, Apmex, Gainesville, Provident et al) are PAYING over spot even on generic 100 oz bars. And not by .01 either, try $2/$5 whatever, something significant per oz over.
When dealers pay premium, then I know wholesale supply is tight because if they can't source at spot from the wholesale market, they have to buy from retail or be out of business (empty storefront). As long as there is high premium product on shelves (like all those joints have) and only the low prem stuff or "hot" new issue is sold out, not convinced. Feels like bait-n-switch to me.
Again..I'm a skeptic of all things, not just the gub'mint.
amazing how excited everyone gets on an uptick. I agree be careful who you trust. when it is finally finished and they write the history, we will probably find that the trusted gurus, industry icons, were just as untrustworthy and out for themselves as the cartel. thankfully this is still a free country and you are free to believe what you choose.
Nothing goes straight up or straight down. Sure would be a strange sight if our resident cheerleaders from main street Turdville would show up here when we were down a couple of $ rather than on a bounce.
I have difficulty believing a militia uniform.
Sorry guys, I thought I was in the trading corner. Didnt mean to pee on anyone's leg on this forum. Thought I was in Pailin's house. Still asleep. Apologies
Tulving is now sold out of 100 oz JM and 100 oz JM/Englehard bars. Still out of 90% junk there too. In fact Tulving is sold out of ALL 100 oz bars except RCM.
Provident remains out of 100 oz bars.
Sure seems like the online dealers got cleaned out... wonder what Bill Haynes will say this week on KWN! I understand the frustrations expressed above, but you must not forget that supply disruptions are often the trigger of big market moves in any resource-limited market.
When multiple dealers start saying they're having a hard time sourcing metals, it may be a good time to buy up shares of the miners at a more rapid pace. It seems that APMEX is always tight-lipped about how much metal they get, have in stock, and are willing to sell... When they offered huge premiums to buy back ASEs earlier this year, that was strange behavior. Frankly, I don't trust that they're as honest and open as they should be for the market place.
When Bill Haynes says that he's seeing a long period of the metal getting harder to acquire, I think we can believe that as a sign of a tighter market than when APMEX plays their games. Wonder when that day will come...
Took my 10 yr old to a pretty busy coin shop in Portland, OR. (coin cottage) today to spend his allowance money. I've seen members here mention it before. No .90% junk, none. Clerk said they sold it all. Hard to believe since they've had bags and bags and bags of it in the past, but who knows ? They did have a few ASEs.
I think, in reality, there is enough physical silver out there for the current demand.
What is more likely happening, in my opinion, is the commercials buying up the physical to sell it on their
next run up in the market.
Also, on a side note, a lot of commercials were covering their shorts at a higher rate than normal towards the end of last month. I think this is the biggest signal if one were to decide on the likley trend of the market.
Long term I think all PMs will pretty much crash within a year. Short term, I think profit taking, the EU crisis, and silver becoming much more physical demand in the market will drive the price up.
My projection for December is around $36 tops.
did I miss something...........has there been a major change in the bernanke buck that has made it more that inked paper.
PM's crashing in a year, with all the world FUBAR. Not to mention long term being a year. How about 5000 years, to me that's long term. Fiat is always short term.
Good luck going long in dollas, and EBT card would be a better bet........"long term".
My sincere hope is that those that are new to this silver game or still haven't learned after two vicious hammerings will pull their head out of their asses and realize 1) the paper game is for paper traders 2) buy as much silver as you can afford, when you can afford to buy it, bury it in your backyard and forget about it till you need to spend it.
We'll all look back at this and laugh at how foolish we were to get involved in their games. Only the fools play into the devil's charade.
Is anyone able to find any silver, Shortages still going on?
Is anyone able to find any silver, Shortages still going on?
Lots of silver around. APMEX has a 24 hour special on Sunshine 1oz rounds, .99 over spot.
Retails silver is fine. All the ASEs and 10 oz bars you can carry out the door or stuff in a USPS Flat Rate box.
According to Sprott bulk for billionaires and sovereigns is tight. Same for COMEX deliveries.
As always...we shall see :)
I'd say there is a 80% chance the BOTTOM was in on Wed the 25th. Confirmation will be when silver crosses $32.07. Golds bottom is in for sure.
Silver had every opportunity to go down on Wed and it didn't. Once the GDP numbers came in below expectations at 2.2% vs the 2.5% expectation I flipped long from short. The Hedge funds will be front loading before the next Fed meeting in June when they think the Fed will be purchasing MBS as stimulus.
And by the way the silver supply is fine. I work at a PM broker. The only thing I was having a slight delay on was 90% silver bags but they were being shipped out 3 days later than normal shipping time. Other than that everything is being shipped out normally.