Price drop = BS

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#1 Tue, Sep 27, 2011 - 12:14am
Joined: Jun 14, 2011

Price drop = BS

Nobody who owns silver coins is selling at these absurd prices (except a few dealers).

Ebay auctions are going for, maybe, 5% lower than last week.

I am heartened that so few are panicking and dumping their metal. . .

Edited by: mdcromer on Nov 8, 2014 - 5:08am
Tue, Sep 27, 2011 - 6:07am
Brotha Bob
Joined: Jun 15, 2011

Spot vs Future markets

What you see is the difference between the spot and futures markets. For too long the futures have set the price. This is coming to an end. Higher margins are forcing people to the physical market. The higher the margins go, the more power the spot market will have over price. The EE over played their hand last week, and sent the prices too low. Thus the spike in physical demand. The smaller players are exiting the futures market. Who can afford to play there any longer? This will force prices higher, because of deminishing physical supply. The EE was too smart by half. The last thing they want is no available physical. And, they can't print physical. The price take down was not BS. But, it is backfiring on them.

May God Help Us All But, what do I know?
Tue, Sep 27, 2011 - 7:23am
Dr Durden
Twin Cities, MN
Joined: Jun 14, 2011

I've been following the eBay

I've been following the eBay premiums on gold on 24hrgold's tracker and I don't recall seeing these premiums this high even when both metals were heading parabolic. It's always seemed the case to me that hype has driven the casual investor toward buying physical, but if this is a new change in trend.....holy shit. 

Got GIABO? "It's called the American dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it." ~George Carlin
Tue, Sep 27, 2011 - 8:25am
Joined: Jun 14, 2011

post-crash prices

I wouldn't make too much of this yet A couple of days does not a trend make. I saw the same thing after the May Massacre. On eBay you will still see high prices for two reasons -

1. Early bids were placed too high on auctions that close after the crash. This is true of all auctions at all times. Unless there's a BIN or Best Offer to end something early, there's no % in bidding before the last couple of hours/minutes/seconds and pushing the price forward. Snipe at the end!

2. New listing by sellers that don't need the money today. They just list it at the price they want and let it ride, relisting or setting a high BIN, until they get their price or need to lower to pay real-life bills. I have a 100 oz Englehard that I bought in June for 3850 (straight spot at the time) on eBay. If I wanted to list it now, I would just put a BIN on it for $4200 (or whatever) to cover my fees and still come out approx break even. Unless I needed the money today, that could sit and relist every 30 days forever at a cost to me of only 50 cents/month. See? That doesn't mean $4200 is the real market though. More than likely I'd have to wait a few weeks or months for spot to catch back up to that area again. I might get lucky and have a sucker grab it, but most regular stackers follow all the bullion sites and know they can get the same from Provident right now for $3600. Thus it wouldn't sell.

Assuming futures hangs around 33 area (up/down couple of bucks range from that) into next week and the week after, I would expect to see eBay prices slide down towards that general area as those pre-crash auctions with early over-bidders clear and new ones take their place. As for dealers, they closed up shop or pulled product from shelves because they couldn't adequately restock at lower prices or hedge in the market. Nobody logically sells for a loss unless they think they can buy back even lower or need the money today. Until you see the big online dealers with consistent buy prices higher (and rising) than spot on even bulk material (like 100 oz), there isn't any physical squeeze. The big pro dealers are just moving product at a spread, price doesn't matter to them as long as they feel they can buy for x and sell for x+15% (or whatever). They for the most part don't care if they sell books, comics, GI Joe figures, etc as long as there is a liquid spread that allows them to turn product over consistently at a profit. They're not kill JPM devotees. But they do appreciate us drinking that Kool-Aid, makes us easier marks...erm customers :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
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