Buy/Sell signals using Moving average cross system

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#1 Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 10:11pm
CK
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Buy/Sell signals using Moving average cross system

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Title says it all. I will document Buy/Sell signals as I see them.

Silver-Gold- SPY/QQQ mainly. Agriculture, Currencies and Bonds as well. The system works on everything. Long term signals are ridiculously high %.

 I'll try to update as many as I can.

I am not a licensed or professional money manager/investor. This is just a personal page for me to document signals.

Silver & Gold both recently gave very strong sell signals. I'll update this thread with some shorter term signals as well.

This is a link I found in one second searching on google to give you an example of how this works. https://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/MASimple2.html

I combine this with charting + fundamentals to come up with targets and timing on shorting/going long. I am very much new to this and wish I knew of it before. Check it out for yourself as time goes on and maybe we'll fill our pockets during these SUPER VOLATILE times.

Edited by: CK on Nov 8, 2014 - 5:08am
Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 11:43pm
kemp
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Out of curiosity, what MA

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Out of curiosity, what MA periods do you follow to get your signals? 

Mon, Sep 26, 2011 - 12:10am
CK
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I use  5-10-21-50-100-200

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I use 5-10-21-50-100-200 moving averages on 5 min, 15 min, 30 min, hourly, daily charts.

Hourly + Daily are clearly the strongest.

And I use Interactive Brokers.

I also add 2 min charts for early signals on day trades, but it's really not needed. 200 day MA not really needed either but can be useful, especially long term. Again, I'm new to this but am very pleased.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Mon, Sep 26, 2011 - 11:54pm
CK
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Gold and Silver signals

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Gold and Silver signals starting to strengthen. Dominant signal is still a sell on the daily.

15mn-30mn-hourly starting to look nice.

Targets for gold= 1675, 1725, 1750 and 1800

Silver targets 33.37 , 34.50, 35.60 and finally around 37 if we can make it that high later.

With the dominant signal being a sell it can and probably will turn around and get nasty sooner or later. These are fairly short term targets. Could be a rocky ride up there and might never hit any of the targets, who knows. 

If we head down again short term targets are 1580 & 1550 for gold. 29.50 and 28 on Silver.

SPY - around 116.80 now, nice bounce from the test of the lows on the low of a 2.5 year bull channel. Expected resistance at 117, we break through there and the target is around 121.. and a second target of 123 or so.

Dominant signal is a sell. Short term signals clearly broke out on buy.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Tue, Sep 27, 2011 - 7:54am
CK
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First targets have been hit. 

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First targets have been hit. Could see a nice pull back now. Buy signals getting stronger & stronger. 

Still a dominant sell.

 

Dollar and Bonds getting weaker on the 30 min + hourly. Giving off what could be shorter term sell signals.

Still a dominant (daily) buy.

So we basically have the hourly signals showing that gold + silver + the markets getting way stronger. 30 yr bonds & Dollar index weakening giving off hourly sell signals. The daily is definitely more important but the hourly can not be ignored. It is a great tool for a confirmation on the daily sell after a non-confirmation of a rally failing.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Tue, Sep 27, 2011 - 8:03am
CK
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Natural Gas, Crude Oil and

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Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Copper are all on the same page as Gold & Silver. 30 min + hourly signals strengthening, showing buys. All on dominant sells as well. I'm looking forward to the reversal of SPY and possibly Gold & Silver depending on how much we rally.

I don't expect any of these to go straight up as the dollar & bonds are fairly strong. But this is clearly the bounce off the lows across the board.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Tue, Sep 27, 2011 - 8:26am
CK
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We're seeing the pull back

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We're seeing the pull back from the first targets.

I will update with 5 min and 2 min signals as well. These are clearly more volatile and what I use for day/fast trades.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Tue, Sep 27, 2011 - 9:11am
CK
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News today :  CS Home Price

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News today : CS Home Price Index 8:55-9am EST

Consumer Confidence & Richmond Fed Manuf. Index 9:55-10am

This could get much uglier. 5 min & 2 min sell signals are getting stronger. 15 min buy signals getting weaker.

Will edit this with an update when I get some of the first signs of a reversal.

Edit: nothing's changed yet. Will update more later today.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Tue, Sep 27, 2011 - 11:33pm
CK
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Deflation trade coming back? 

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Deflation trade coming back? Gold & Silver definitely getting weaker. Stock markets, copper, oil... all look pretty dangerous overall.

This market's been super volatile so no surprises if we go back and forth.

Apple gave a clue yesterday when it was weak and started selling off. The market and everything else started following.

More tomorrow.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Wed, Sep 28, 2011 - 3:40am
KK
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So MA's and candlesticks

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on the various time frames and for all types of markets is your play.. no BB's, Vortex-indicator or whatever indicator in addition to that?

Well Einstein said, "keep it as simple as possible, but not too simple".

It requires some experience to be able to judge the strength of the movement on the shorter time frames. In hindsight I could have seen that gold and silver were set up for a dive on the larger time frames (the plans of the FOMC giving the last push). I didn't anticipate the decline I have to admit.

A few charts would be welcomed, if it is not too much trouble, but thanks for your posts anyway.

Wed, Sep 28, 2011 - 11:26am
CK
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Yes, keeping it simple is

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Yes, keeping it simple is best. It definitely requires some experience to judge the strength and price action patterns with the movement.

I'm using Exponential MA's instead of Simple for now, though both are fine. I have also added MACD & Stochastic Oscillator for more clues/confirmations. But overall I do not need anything but the MA's crossing.

Can TECHNICALLY choose any stock or any market and not have a clue about it.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Wed, Sep 28, 2011 - 11:55am
CK
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Copper may be giving us a

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Copper may be giving us a sign again for Gold, Silver and the markets. Things don't look too good. 

Pretty much have sell signals on every time frame for Gold & Silver. Who knows if it reverses from here. 

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Wed, Sep 28, 2011 - 12:16pm
CK
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Yup.. if we go under those

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Yup.. if we go under those 1629 and 30.52 levels, Gold may go down to 1605-1580. Silver to $29.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Wed, Sep 28, 2011 - 12:30pm (Reply to #13)
Eric_2
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Thanks for starting this

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Thanks for starting this thread CK, I am very interested in learning about how to use and follow different types of moving averages. Palin posted a link a few days ago to a site that explains the theory, but I am looking forward to seeing how it works in the real world. It would be great if you could post or link to some charts as the thread develops. Thanks again.

Wed, Sep 28, 2011 - 12:48pm
CK
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No problem, Eric. These

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No problem, Eric.

These signals are so ridiculously profitable that I need to stay away from here during trading hours.

Golden.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Wed, Sep 28, 2011 - 3:03pm (Reply to #13)
KK
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Tolbert
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CK wrote: Yup.. if we go

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CK wrote:

Yup.. if we go under those 1629 and 30.52 levels, Gold may go down to 1605-1580. Silver to $29.

Where do you base those levels on, are these certain MA points, or Fibonacci levels?

Wed, Sep 28, 2011 - 6:08pm (Reply to #14)
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200 DMA

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Eric_2 wrote:
Palin posted a link a few days ago to a site that explains the theory, but I am looking forward to seeing how it works in the real world.

Eric_2 (and for the benefit of everybody else) - What I posted was this:

https://www.runtogold.com/2010/07/200-day-moving-average/

200 DMA is not a short term trading signal (by definition 200 DMA is a long smooth curve for trend trading). It's great for at least one particular scenario. Let's say you've allocated a percentage of your resources to PMs, say 10%. No matter what you'll always have that chunk in PMs (we'll assume you're not reallocating back to 10% regularly, just the once initially). With that as a basis, the reading above provides an excellent strategy to move out of overbought PMs and into underbought PMs (relative to the 200 DMA of each). PMs tend to move up and down together, but not at the same pace. Gold got smacked got, as did silver. But silver is the better buy. Platinum and Palladium are too. If you're allocated in PMs at all times, you're not looking at the USD value of them, you're always in. The question is in what? Following this strategy gets you to sell the winners and buy the losers with the tacit assumption that any PM is better than USD/fiat in a long term secular bull.

CK - Don't want to hijack your thread but since this was mentioned I thought some detail might be of use to others that check in here. Otherwise..carry on the good work!

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Sep 28, 2011 - 6:19pm (Reply to #17)
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pailin wrote: Eric_2

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Eric_2 wrote:
Palin posted a link a few days ago to a site that explains the theory, but I am looking forward to seeing how it works in the real world.

Eric_2 (and for the benefit of everybody else) - What I posted was this:

https://www.runtogold.com/2010/07/200-day-moving-average/

200 DMA is not a short term trading signal (by definition 200 DMA is a long smooth curve for trend trading). It's great for at least one particular scenario. Let's say you've allocated a percentage of your resources to PMs, say 10% or $100k (yeah right!) No matter what you'll always have that chunk in PMs (we'll assume you're not reallocating anything out to stocks/bonds/cash). The chunk may grow or shrink beyond $100k in USD terms, but this now a PM allocation and USD only matters when you cash out of PMs for good and buy...???

With that as a basis, the linked article provides an excellent strategy to move out of overbought PMs and into underbought PMs (relative to the 200 DMA of each). PMs tend to move up and down together, but not at the same pace. Gold got smacked last week, as did silver. But silver harder, much harder and now silver is the better buy. Platinum and Palladium are too. So you would swap your gold which is now at par for under par PMs like the other three.

If you're allocated in PMs at all times, you're not looking at the USD value of them, you're always in. The question is in what? Following this strategy gets you to sell the winners and buy the losers with the tacit assumption that any PM is better than USD/fiat in a long term secular bull. This can work for your stack or your trading account. I've backed it up to 2006 and in rough terms it would have provided a much greater overall return and better yet retention of gains than just buy/hold. It gives you a logical way to trade occasionally without ever feeling you're at risk of missing a run up. All metals are up and the beaten down usually catch up by outperforming. Like silver did since 2008 with returns eclipsing golds'.

CK - Don't want to hijack your thread but since this was mentioned I thought some detail might be of use to others that check in here. Otherwise..carry on the good work!

[sorry for the dupe post!]

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Sep 28, 2011 - 6:56pm
CK
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Agree that Silver is the

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Agree that Silver is the better buy. My thread is your thread Pailin.

KK, my targets are my own unique levels that i get from drawing trend lines, etc. I'll be the first to admit that I don't master it by any means, but I tend to get pretty close. Overall I have a lot more to learn and a lot more experience to gain in every field.

On the Moving Average cross front, I think a 12 year old can probably profit using this system. It's so simple. But it really does take good judgement and some experience following the moving averages crossing.

I'm pretty sure most professionals use it for mostly long term moves. I have my own way of doing it both long and short term. It definitely works but I can't really say it's EASY. More simple than easy. 

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Wed, Sep 28, 2011 - 7:58pm
CK
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S & P to follow copper test of low?

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SPY getting whacked. With this Copper destruction going on I wouldn't be surprised if SPY finally falls off the lows and goes to 105. Though we might have already established a low for a while at around 110.

I had a target of around 116.30 for SPY then 115. Further downside targets = around 112, 110 and then 105.

Copper's probably heading to 3.07 to test those lows from the other day. Break under there and it's on to 2.88

Sell Signal Mania. 

With sell signals being SUPER STRONG, I don't really want to be a buyer. With that said, we are very close to the $1580, $29 targets and could see retracements that will most likely be sold off again. 

We could just head to $1550 and $28 of course.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Wed, Sep 28, 2011 - 8:40pm
CK
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Ahh, I'm loving it.  With

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Ahh, I'm loving it. With daily, hourly, 30min, 15min, 5min all showing sell signals - you can bet the retracements will be sold off.

ES is falling harder, following copper. To think we could see a monster sell off still even after all of this. That's the reality of the situation.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.

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