Gold retracement

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#1 Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 3:04pm
Dr Durden
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Gold retracement

Full credit for graph goes to Jesse: https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/09/gold-daily-and-silver-weekly-charts_23.html

Could a plausible scenario be that we bounce at 1610, rally back for awhile and then go down to test $1542? If history serves, I really don't think gold is ready to just snap back to all time highs and forget what happened.

Thoughts? 

Edited by: Dr Durden on Nov 8, 2014 - 5:31am
Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 9:19pm
2turdledoves
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My bet, Gold bottoms at 1610 and retraces to 1780-1800 and finds resistance. Then again this Euro fiasco could set the whole world on fire. 

“Truth is treason in the empire of lies.” ― Ron Paul, The Revolution: A Manifesto
Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 9:37pm
SilverFocker
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I think

The big bitch and her little sister are nothing but buys. Charts seem useless to predict anything anymore as we get closer to the end.

The further they take it down the easier it is to stack. In the end there will be nothing left to put out the fire on the metals as the fiat will burn in effigy to the power brokers.

Mon, Sep 26, 2011 - 8:15am
Dr Durden
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Right through $1600 like a

Right through $1600 like a hot knife through butter. Of course has to bounce at $1533 in the middle of the night. Crap. Now back up $100.

......aaaand then the CRIMEX opens.....lulz.....

Love to see a few bounces off that lower low so I can buy up some UGL on clearance sale. 

Got GIABO? "It's called the American dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it." ~George Carlin
Mon, Sep 26, 2011 - 4:46pm (Reply to #5)
Aeonios
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I'm seeing a cup&handle

I'm seeing a cup&handle forming on the 24h charts. Unless there are additional hikes I expect a quick but modest recovery to at least $1650 in gold and probably $33-35 in silver.

That's where my money is anyway :X.

Mon, Sep 26, 2011 - 10:17pm
Dr Durden
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Gold seems to have a real

Gold seems to have a real issue with the 100MA right now at $1635. Gonna be a draw in my mind if London tonight deems it worthy of a steadfast rally or no...and we stay under and grind some more. I prefer it take some time cause I'd like a little more of the hard stuff. 

Got GIABO? "It's called the American dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it." ~George Carlin
Tue, Sep 27, 2011 - 1:52am
Aeonios
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After fighting with $1630

After fighting with $1630 resistance all day and evening, gold is now holding with $1635 as support, and after silver's battle to break $30.70 it's now holding $30.90 as support. I can see yet another cup and handle forming in both metals. It looks a bit like the "ascending staircase" pattern I saw back before the smackdown at the end of august, only so far they don't seem to have the characteristic vertical jumps that come with a short covering ralley.

Everything after yesterday's assault has been nice and orderly and very timid. Whoever is trading right now is obviously afraid of triggering margin hikes, but they seem to be determined to inch forward as quickly as they can get away with. I think we have a subdued FUCME/FUSH on our hands, with a possible FUBM a bit later on.

Of course there's no telling what will happen the next time markets go red.

UPDATE: Now they're challenging $1645/$31.50 as the next supports. Looks like we'll get steady advances at least till Blythe's usual witching hour. I'm guessing by the trend that it'll probably crawl to ~$1665/$33 tomorrow, barring unnatural disasters.

Tue, Sep 27, 2011 - 5:58am
Silverman
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Great come back for gold. 

Great come back for gold. 

Tue, Sep 27, 2011 - 7:18am
Dr Durden
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Currently trying to fill the

Currently trying to fill the $1675 gap from the beginning of Aug. Yowza! 

Got GIABO? "It's called the American dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it." ~George Carlin
Tue, Sep 27, 2011 - 11:16am
Aeonios
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HuhwhatIsay? I think I have a

HuhwhatIsay? I think I have a name for this chart formation, I call it "FU Naysayers".

Now short the tar out of SXP/DOW/R2k while it's floating on thin air and rumors.

Tue, Sep 27, 2011 - 12:05pm (Reply to #11)
Dr Durden
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Aeonios wrote:HuhwhatIsay? I

Aeonios wrote:

HuhwhatIsay? I think I have a name for this chart formation, I call it "FU Naysayers".

Now short the tar out of SXP/DOW/R2k while it's floating on thin air and rumors.

$1650 would be a nice support basin for a few days, here.

Oh, like it's my job. I'd love to see a sucker rally up to the 200ma's on all three or at least a little pop out of the bollinger bands...cause if you look at the action over the past month, it's choppy up and fast and furious on the way down. Look ma, I'ma momentum trader!

Got GIABO? "It's called the American dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it." ~George Carlin
Tue, Sep 27, 2011 - 12:44pm
Aeonios
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Haha, no kidding. However I

Haha, no kidding. However I should warn everyone that the charts turned bearish after about 10-11AM today, and will probably reverse hard when people figure out Greece defaulted today.

The Germans are not going to be happy about this, and if the Europonzi decides to start throwing around more "QE to Infinity and Beyond" rumors they'll only guarantee that the EUR 440bn fund they keep touting they have will not ever be 440bn.

Needless to say, if I see silver under $30 again, I'm BTFD and leveraging myself up to my eyebrows. Stupid? Maybe, but I doubt it.

Tue, Sep 27, 2011 - 5:21pm
BUDDHA PRINCESS
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Gold Technical Analysis Sept27.2011 by Endless Mountain

Wed, Sep 28, 2011 - 4:21pm
Dr Durden
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I love endless's analysis,

I love endless's analysis, but his math makes my head spin. 

In his latest silver vid he went over how the volatility is starting to get up over 5% and head up to 10% (extreme.) If he's correct in his assertion that extreme will be the norm then it should come as no surprise as silver makes $3-5 moves all day long. And the same with gold at $75-100 moves. It's enough to make you puke. Never a better time to sit tight and be right in the hard stuff.

I was just saying in the blog that neigher metals have bottomed on their daily Macd's. I can only go back a few years on the forex site I use, but I'm not seeing anywhere near the level of oversold conditions that we have now. Hold that beach ball under water as long as you can, Blythe. 

Got GIABO? "It's called the American dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it." ~George Carlin
Wed, Sep 28, 2011 - 9:59pm
Collectivist
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The flaw in trying to

The flaw in trying to ascertain gold's value through the lens of a USD price is like reasoning that a silver coin has the same value as a current debased version since they both have identical face values.

Indeed, if you were to trade 10 such silver dimes at a bank, a dollar is what you would get.

The confusion today around the precious metals market is due to those who believe a single price can accurately value both the paper and physical ounce.

The USD price of gold and silver increasingly tracks paper gold and silver much more than it does the physical and, as such, must not be given much credence lest you want to be ripped off. Most of us stackers know this and we simply keep stacking, never dispensing with our metal hoard. We actually rejoice as the paper price falls as it gives us more opportunity to buy more metal at the paper traders expense.

Unfortunately, Gresham's law will eventually force the fraudulent paper forms of paper gold and silver to be traded in for real gold and silver until the physical metal, like those silver dimes, will disappear from circulation.

In the meantime, keep guessing at what the paper price of gold and silver is, like it matters.

Wed, Sep 28, 2011 - 11:13pm (Reply to #16)
Dr Durden
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Collectivist wrote:In the

Collectivist wrote:
In the meantime, keep guessing at what the paper price of gold and silver is, like it matters.

Will do because it does matter. It matters a lot. Predictability and perception in a speculative commodity market is a keen asset. If you argue otherwise, then play another game - maybe poker or Monopoly is better for you.

Last I checked, I got paid in toilet paper USD's which, as of right now, are the only link to my metal stack and my labor. And since I can only work so much, get paid so much, then it would be to my advantage to get as much metal for my money/labor. 

You make good points and I think everyone gets the implication, but that ain't reality, player. When things change rather drastically which is not going to be tomorrow or next week, then your diatribe is apt.

Back on topic. I've officially earned a whole new level of respect for Santa and Kenny if tonight's $1584 dip holds and gold moves up and away from here. 

Got GIABO? "It's called the American dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it." ~George Carlin
Thu, Sep 29, 2011 - 12:40am (Reply to #17)
Aeonios
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Did I, or did I not say "boy,

Did I, or did I not say "boy, that chart sure is looking bearish"? Christ.

And, for that matter, I'm 3 for 3 thus far- called the cup&handles yesterday(ish) and the bullish action that followed. Called the bearish turn, called the markets going plunk-o.

Gimme at least a little credit, sheesh.

Anyway, TA is mostly BS. A few chart formations are telling (sometimes), and EMAs have psychological value, but MACD and other things are entirely trailing indicators and not useful at all for making predictions. Much-much-much-much more important is noticing the market associations (for example, gold and silver are currently market-associated rather than safety-associated) and connecting that with current events and market responses to them in order to understand where things are probably going to go next and how that will affect the assets in question.

I mean, there's always that whole value investment thing (which I do follow and have done my research on), but value investment only works when the market is at least pretending to pay attention to fundamentals. Not to say that it doesn't work still (assuming your chosen assets aren't tied too closely to the rumor mill), but it's a much bigger gamble since PE ratios are highly unstable and pricing-appraisal is thus much more difficult.

Thu, Sep 29, 2011 - 10:12am (Reply to #17)
Collectivist
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The point is the more

The point is the more disconnected the price becomes, the less available the metal. But if it is bottom's you're after, we still have plenty to go. The paper commodity market is going to disintegrate with all other artificial investment vehicles.

But you keep on playing your game of musical chairs for now.

Thu, Sep 29, 2011 - 10:09pm
Aeonios
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Thanks, I will. Not all of us

Thanks, I will. Not all of us are 50 year old rich buggers who have had the luxury of sitting around stacking metal for the last 10 years or so. If you got anything worthwhile to say about what's going on right now, I'd love to hear it.

Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 8:59pm (Reply to #20)
Collectivist
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The obvious is that wealth is

The obvious is that wealth is being destroyed. Wall street is currently the next group to be fleeced. Those dumb protesters up in arms against wallstreet are ensuring that their own throats are to be slit.

I am sure these protests are being funded by those whose interest it is to see wallstreet take the blame for something the banking cartel is guilty of.

Wallstreet is the patsy and with its final fleecing, the employment picture will get substantially worse.

Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 9:05pm
Rich MyGold
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Q3

Well, with Q3 one would expect the prices of gold and silver to go up, instead they drop as soon as uncle Ben spoke. This market has been driving by fear, but intead of gold, investors are rushing into dollars, bonds, etc.

Exciting times we live in!

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