Wheat is selling off. Keeping an eye out and thinking through a strategy to accumulate somewhere.
Anyone watching this?
I had a wheat trade on a couple of weeks ago, small profit on 1/2, stopped out on 1/2. Not trading it now. I'm surprised at the depth of the selloff. It's due a bounce. Potential for rain in the dry hard wheat belt pressuring wheat today, KC wheat leading the way. CBOT Dec wheat trading a discount to Dec corn. Likely stays that way to encourage substitution of wheat for corn. IMO, wheat will be a tag along market to corn, with opportunities to trade it. Wheat is a streaker and when trend changes doesn't usually give you much chance to get on board. Might as well trade the leader corn.
These pictures were taken in Texas, but much of western Oklahoma and western Kansas look very similar. I am posting one picture and a link to the others.
The point I am trying to make is that the .25" shower we received this morning was pleasant, but the fact is that it will take several 1-2" rains to get to the point that the water profile in the soil is close to normal.
From my standpoint, the prognosis for a good wheat crop is unsure... at best (even being optimistic). Right now the seed bed is talcum powder dry going down several inches.
Coming Commodity Boom by Armstrong. Goes into Wheat in this article.
Wheat has surely been pounded down. But...Looking like the downtrend has been broken. Looking similar to Sugar. With the CRB Index looking like it could be setting up for big runs, there could be some great opportunities.
Multi-year implications for the Softs & Grains just occurred today.
USD Broke it's trendline and this could set a entirely new pace for this sector.
Up 2+% today
Agree that wheat is forming a bottom here. Funds already short. But the corn harvest selling may keep a lid on wheat prices for awhile. Will be a market to watch.
Here's some wheat news this morning.