Does anyone know if this company is worthwhile keeping? I bought it a year ago or so and it has been a loser of a company so far vs. my other miners. I am thinking of just dumping it and taking the tax loss and moving the money into better performing areas.
Hi Vypuero, I took a look at Timberline, their website and the chart,just for a quick glimpse at the first impressions.
I'm not well versed about this company,as I dont own it. But to my eyes the chart doesnt look that bad.
In terns of elliott wave structure, It has been consolidating sideways with a down slant for ,wow,almost 2 years,thats a long time but not unlike many stocks that do this after a giant run up. Last year from august to november it ran up with the other miners,and doubled from .70 to 1.40, so it wasnt slacking at that time.
Its been doing a 'wave4' in elliott wave structure,which means it should see a move up this fall,to test the 200 MA around 1.30-1.40 area....which would be another double from its recent low of .62
There is resistance overhead now in the .90-.100 area...but breaking thru that after holding here around the .75-.80 area would be bullish for that move up during this 'strong season' for miners. depending on what price you bought at,the 'best time to dump' the stock would be around 1.30 area after the next move up.
But there are more things to see technically. If you look at a long term chart of TLR from the major plunge in 2008 to a bottom established in 2009 ,lets call it the july 2009 support area which is about 30 cents....to the top area which is around 1.30 ,with alot of choppiness along that 1.30 line but call it 1.30....hat whole movement is a giant Cup and this whole long sideways slide is a Handle. for sure. According to technical analysis, says there ought to be a 'measured move' up, equal to the same distance....which takes the .30 to 1.30 move, 1 dollar and takes it from 1.30 to a target of 2.30. At some point.
So the chart doesnt look too bad. in this regard.
The website mentioned they are reporting the first fall drilling results now.This could be why the stock jumped from 80 cents to almost 1 dollar the other day. The selloff and pullback from that is normal...back down to support and could settle lower a bit more to .75-.70m area for support. This time of announcing drilling results is likely to be crunch time for this stock...good results would send it into the wave 5 and a test of the 1.30 top. bad results would send it down and maybe below the .62 bottom.
You'll know soon enough.
But the chart looks like its been establishing a long slow handle bottom , in a cup and handle formation. I have a bunch of stocks doing that as well. But the time is now for the miners to show what theyre going to do.
Another thing the web site said was that their production plans are set to go forth in early 2012 which could also be a reason to hold the stock at least until then. Its a big moment when an explorer becomes a producer. If youve waited this long, you might logically want to wait until then ,a while longer.
But right now as the stock sits...its in a coiled up position to go somewhere. It just popped upon drilling news, now it pulled back. It could pop for real again in the coming weeks,depending on the drill results to come. The website sounds like this company sits next door to barrick which would make their plan to be bought out by Barrick some day if these results and future drilling looks promising.
If I owned this stock at .60 cents I would be looking to take some profit at a double in the 1.30 area and then sell more at 2.50 area
Hope this helps
But - Thanks for the analysis. I also wanted to be sure there was not something wrong with it. I can wait since I don't have a lot of money sunk into it.
Hello again..... I also noticed that with this stock ,looking at the chart, you can see that when the price took little dives to the bottoms...all the recent lows....they all got bought up hard and fast ,which created those tails. the lows at .70 and .62 and that area.....buyers eagerly stepped in and bought strongly. This is a good sign for the stock strength at support. Buyers step in strongly at .65 and .70....and traders will sell for a double at 1.30 -1.40