I certainly think we have a long way to go in this market, but what are your thoughts on an exit strategy? How will you determine the time is right to unload? What things are you watching and looking at? I'm looking at this from a long term perspective and not a trading situation.
I just posted this on another thread (don't remember which one) but I'm getting out when the Gold / Dow ratio hits 1 : 1. Don't want farmland (I'm 55 and lazy) but just will buy one DOW for every ozt of Au I have.
Ibú Ayé fun o mi opolopo owo
Interesting occurrence :)
I just started similar thread. As a summary it appears that Exit Point vary a great deal for different people due to different approach / goals.
- There are Gold Bugs, that will not sell regardless of the market
-There are Gold Standard Believers, that will not sell as they are waiting for Gold to become official Money
-There are those that have certain FIAT figure in mind, say $20,000 USD. Once reached - they say that they will sell
-And last is my category, Cyclists. We are trading on the Gold : Other Asset Class ratio. Say when 100oz Gold will buy us a house or a Land or so many shares - we will trade Gold for this asset. The goal is to 'ride the cycles' multiplying the gains.
Each of the 'classes' of people described will have there's own data they work off. Exit point is drastically different. So please, define your question :)
I agree with Simple. Ther are various types of investors, who have different goals. Ask yourself why you are here, and why you stack. The answer to that should tell you when to get out. There are many reasons to stack phyzz. My biggest concern is the debasement of the dollar. There certainly other very valid reason to hold metal. My stack is pure insurance against whatever may come. Since, I can not see the future, I am just stacking and holding. Time will tell when/ if I get out. But, what do I know?
I was asked this same question a few weeks ago on main street. Here's a copy of my answer.
The reality of it is that I look at our PM stash as just another portion of our retirement plan. There's 401(k)'s, Roth IRA's, and gold. It's an asset allocation within the grand scheme of things, an allocation that I have that is larger than most conventional planners would recommend, but that's just my way I guess. It's there to insure the rest of it against all the things we worry about on this blog all the time. No need to reiterate all that here.
Somewhere down the line, it may get reallocated to something else. I could see that happening. If we get the big meltdown in the dollar that we fear, and come out the other side with everything now denominated in whatever comes next, and if it looks like that may be something more stable for a while, then it's role as insurance may have served it's purpose and it might be time to reallocate to something else. What is that something else? I just hope I know it when I see it. It might be land, it might be stocks, who knows?
Or, and I think perhaps this is more likely, it will just get gradually consumed as a regular part of our retirement income stream. Especially if we end up retiring into the teeth of hard times. I totally could see me putt putting to a nearby coin shop once a month to sell off a coin or two to supplement our retirement income. Whatever is leftover when we're gone will go to our kids just like everything else we've got.
If we get to a more comfortable place where it looks like our hoard may outlast us, we could start gifting it to our kids, just like folks often start to do with other types of assets.
Cold and impersonal? Sure, but no more so than a quarterly statement from your 401(k) or IRA. You can't eat stock certificates either.
Tough to let go of? Sure. But you know I've sold a coin or two also over the past year. I had a couple in terrible condition that really annoyed me. Also swapped silver for gold, and also sold some silver outright. Each time it seems hard. Getting especially hard now to choose which silver to part with. Getting down to the point where I really like everything I've got left. BUT, after the deed is done, I always feel really good about it with no regrets. A short time later I'm thinking "what was so hard about that?" So I think it will be fine.
I just posted this in the exit strategy thread in the silver forum.
"I'm heavily invested in physical right now, and plan to hold a good amount of it for some time to come. However, I do have a plan to diversify in the future, although I'll always hold some phys. As energy becomes increasingly expensive, local production of everything is going to be key. Investing in local ways to produce food, energy, tools, or other goods locally will be a very good way to go in the coming years to insure you have income. It will also have the benefit of strengthening your local community, and that's really what's important here, not getting rich. I'm currently waiting to buy farmland until I can get in at a much cheaper price on land that is no currently classified as farmland. In many parts of the country there are very productive soils that have been turned into the insanity that is suburbia. When the soccer moms can't afford the gas for the SUVs any more and suburbia finally crashes, this land will once again be cheap enough to farm. This will be good timing as the cities will be crawling with hungry people."