Guess this is a bad time to sell my physical?

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#1 Fri, Sep 2, 2011 - 6:10pm
toxic8
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Guess this is a bad time to sell my physical?

LoL .. I know you guys are gonna FLAME me for this but hear me out.

So, I'm a student and I absolutely KILL myself cause I've been watching silver for three years (since ~$7) but never acted on it till recently - a few months ago. Picked up 100oz of 2011 Koala's from Gainsville at around 35 spot and sat on it till now.. thing is, I'm totally out of cash and I believe I have an investment opportunity (regarding a M&A move on a stock) that will play out this month which I believewill outperform silver exponentially in the same time period ...

The plan is to sell my physical next week and use the fiat generated over the next month or two to buy back in 2x-3x more ... only thing is ... I can feel the electricity in the air.. summers done, iran's going underground, banks are under fire, massive cables released, israel and america are aggresively positioning navy fleets, turkey just recalled it's ambassador 2 israel, new debt ceiling breach etc. etc. you get it ... I get it.. this could be it ...

I don't know. I'm just venting. It's a very risky move.. but I think I might sell somewhere around 45 and try to buy back in a little later... if we break 50 in silver shortly (logically, that SHOULD happen sometime in the next month) do you guys think there's no looking back?

Edited by: toxic8 on Nov 8, 2014 - 5:08am
Fri, Sep 2, 2011 - 6:30pm
Brotha Bob
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How close the ends is?

You are asking how near the end is. Who knows. All I know is it approaches, and gets closer every day. The old adage, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, applies. You have phyzz in your hand, and to bet that on an if-come proposition, is highly risky. In the end, you have to make your own decision. No one can do that for you. Not sure what kind of position you are looking to take in this M&A deal. Consider an options position. Cheaper the get into, if possible, and you can maintain more of your stack. I would maintain my stack. Hope this helps.

May God Help Us All But, what do I know?
Fri, Sep 2, 2011 - 9:27pm
kemp
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Does it have to be an all or

Does it have to be an all or nothing approach? If you really think the other investment will do well, sell a portion of the silver and get in. But going whole hog may leave you unhappy if it doesn't play out as well as you had hoped. 

Fri, Sep 2, 2011 - 10:08pm
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toxic8 wrote: LoL .. I know

toxic8 wrote:

LoL .. I know you guys are gonna FLAME me for this but hear me out.

So, I'm a student and I absolutely KILL myself cause I've been watching silver for three years (since ~$7) but never acted on it till recently - a few months ago. Picked up 100oz of 2011 Koala's from Gainsville at around 35 spot and sat on it till now.. thing is, I'm totally out of cash and I believe I have an investment opportunity (regarding a M&A move on a stock) that will play out this month which I believewill outperform silver exponentially in the same time period ...

The plan is to sell my physical next week and use the fiat generated over the next month or two to buy back in 2x-3x more ... only thing is ... I can feel the electricity in the air.. summers done, iran's going underground, banks are under fire, massive cables released, israel and america are aggresively positioning navy fleets, turkey just recalled it's ambassador 2 israel, new debt ceiling breach etc. etc. you get it ... I get it.. this could be it ...

I don't know. I'm just venting. It's a very risky move.. but I think I might sell somewhere around 45 and try to buy back in a little later... if we break 50 in silver shortly (logically, that SHOULD happen sometime in the next month) do you guys think there's no looking back?

I hate to rain on your parade of doom and gloom but the end is not happening tomorrow. The world isn't coming to an end anytime soon and the dollar isn't collapsing tomorrow. I've been reading about it since 1987 and back then they were writing about it as if it were going to happen tomorrow. 

And as long as I've been alive somebody has been bombing Israel or Israel bombing them, America sticking it's nose where it don't belong, crashing planes over Hainan Island and spending money where it don't belong. None of that is new. What is new is the realization of these things by a greater number of people and the beginning of the transformation of these outmoded ways of being. I hate to pull the "I've been around the block" cliche because age doesn't bring wisdom unless they sought it out. But in this case, many of the events you've mentioned probably isn't gonna be the lever that we are looking for the next bullish trend in PM's. I'd be watching Europe very closely and Germany and France.

I am not down playing the seriousness of the global economic issues we are facing. But if you think it's happening tomorrow and you are just preparing today, you're too late. Go to the local pub have a beer and throw up your arms in surrender.

I like what one of the popular metals traders always tells his readers "Be Patient, there is always another buying opportunity, ALWAYS" It's also a good time for you to start incorporating the basic strategies of a successful trader which include money management and control of the emotions. When everybody else is panicing that's when you are making your money, but if you panic because you think the end is near, then you've joined the crowd. 

If it were me, I'd hold my physical position in silver for September as it is historically the hottest month for silver. and take profit in the next run up toward 50. And then look to the end of September for another buying opportunity in the mines. Germany is paying for welfare programs in other countries and we could see riots explode there or in France as they are doing the same. This could lead to another major market decline in September. Watch these events carefully.

Sat, Sep 3, 2011 - 12:56am
SilverFocker
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If you gotta sell it

Sell it to someone you know.........or borrow up against it with them. This is one reason why we need a mini forum to be able to buy other turd fan's coin in a time of need. Just a place to mention, then it goes private for the rest.

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 2:43pm
Jrandom
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Just remember, you can sell

Just remember, you can sell silver to buy silver, and not have a taxable event. Selling silver to buy stocks is taxable. Then again, selling the stocks to buy back silver is taxable (short term captial gains if it is under a year, which is the same as income tax, very bad). You are taking a huge gamble. I also agree with the other posters, the "End is Nigh!" talk is always around. I appreciate it to help motivate me to get off my ass and do something, but as far as being a indicator of market timing, it is very bad.

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 8:29pm
toxic8
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Thank you for the great

Thank you for the great advice everyone. Always good to get different perspectives and take them into consideration - there were a few pointers there I hadn't thought of.

I'll let you guys know how it works out, hopefully some good news to report back.

If anyone's in NYC and it goes well, beers on me :]

Tue, Sep 6, 2011 - 4:06pm
No1Hunter
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Selling Silver

Just how much are you going to sell? All 100 oz? As Jrandom indicated, you are going to have a taxable event and you are going to have to prove your cost basis. I have a feeling Bullion sales are going to be big red flags in the future for most of us little guys as I feel the IRS won't think we will have the records to proved what we paid. Thus, all the proceeds will be taxable rather than the profits. With your recent purchase, I would hope you still have your receipt.

Fri, Sep 9, 2011 - 3:27am (Reply to #8)
donpaulo
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I reckon booking err taking

I reckon booking err taking profits is never a bad thing.

hindsight being 20:20

you COULD have made more or you COULD have left something on the table

either way if you take cash and got what you needed its a winning situation for you

hopefully you can return to the silver market in the future

Tue, Sep 13, 2011 - 3:03pm
WheelerSilver
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Do It.

If you feel good about making money after taxes then do it. You'll kick yourself down the road if it turns out aces and you never buy in. 

https://www.wheelersilver.com ~Handmade Fine Silver Bullion~
randomness