Question? for the smart people. when to sell?

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#1 Sat, Aug 20, 2011 - 9:22pm
bigmark99
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Question? for the smart people. when to sell?

When do you sell?

I buy a 5 or 10 oz silver bar every 2 weeks or so and have a nice little pile going.

I have bills, that the silver pile could pay off.

My plan was to wait till the years end but silver has gone up so fast the last few days, I don't know, if I should wait?

When do you sell? what's a good profit?

Thank you for the input, Me

Edited by: bigmark99 on Nov 8, 2014 - 5:08am
Sun, Aug 21, 2011 - 12:20am
Vypuero
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don't sell physical

That is not what it is for. If you need money, don't buy any new physical until the bills get paid.

Sun, Aug 21, 2011 - 7:07am
Brotha Bob
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Any profit is good profit.

Any profit is good profit. But as stated above, pay your bills and feed your family first. Don't short term trade physical. You won't win. If you goal is short term profits,trade paper silver or gold, with money you would take to a casino. Physical is a long term EOTW investment.

May God Help Us All But, what do I know?
Sun, Aug 21, 2011 - 8:22am
snoochieboochies
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Hold onto the physical for as

Hold onto the physical for as long as you can, it will be in a bubble when you start hearing everybody from your family, friends, complete strangers talking about investing/buying into silver/gold. At that point it will be time to sell if a currency collapse hasn't happened beforehand

I'm a noob, please don't take anything i say as trading advice!!
Sun, Aug 21, 2011 - 10:07am
pailin
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My basic rule of thumb for

My basic rule of thumb for when to sell all my PM positions (paper, physical) is when that would seem like the absolute dumbest thing to do...because it's going up so far so fast that nobody (you, me, the world) doesn't want to miss out on the get-rich-quickness of it. When I have that eurphoria, I'll start selling tranches into that strength.

But understand where we are today - I'd need to see a $400 print on silver to even be close to the above thinking, not $43. $43 is hardly euphoric. Stop stacking and pay your bills with the unspent cash instead. Never be "all in", you'll just be forced to sell at exactly the wrong time. Silver has a funny way of losing 10% the same day the transmission in your car goes. That's just how it works.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Sun, Aug 21, 2011 - 10:41am (Reply to #5)
Rico
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pailin wrote: Silver has a

pailin wrote:

 Silver has a funny way of losing 10% the same day the transmission in your car goes. That's just how it works.

smileyThat's funny!

Also, agree with the other comments, although I'm probably even more philosophical about it i.e. I hope to literally never sell my physical, even if it goes to the sky, crashes, etc. It's now part of my kids' patrimony, and I hope they continue the work, adding to it, passing it on, etc. It's like the family farm, or the lake house.

Paying bills, and buying useless crap? Why, that's what that fiat is for!

Sun, Aug 21, 2011 - 10:46am
Mudsharkbytes
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My plan

It so happens that I'm going to need some money for a planned expense at the end of this year (a custom musical instrument that is being hand made to my specs by a professional luthier - these don't come cheap). It takes about a year to build one of these instruments, which he started in January, so I'm about about 8 months into my 'plan'.

I already have a decent stack, but rather than save fiat for this, and watch it devalue, and, being both relatively clueless and gun-shy about dealing in paper, I've instead continued to stack physical. When the end of the year comes and the instrument is ready, I plan to offer the builder however much physical it would take to cover the bill when converted into fiat at that time (hopefully the PM's will continue to rise substantially over the next four months). If he's smart, he'll take it. If not, I'll just sell enough to cover the paper and give him that.

Either way, I've done better than I would have if I'd merely stashed away fiat to pay for it.

This plan was for continuing to stack physical to use it a year later, IOW, somewhat 'long term' if a year can be considered 'long' in holding physical PMs. I have debts now, such as a mortgage, that I COULD sell physical and more than pay off, but I would consider that to be the height of folly. The longer I can hold onto my metals, the more my debt will devalue and less and less of my stack will be needed to pay any of it off, whenever I choose to.

Sun, Aug 21, 2011 - 12:37pm
Rico
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@mudshark, off-topic, but, as

@mudshark,

off-topic, but, as a musician, I'm curious about your instrument. Can you share what it is, and the builder? I understand if you consider that private info

Sun, Aug 21, 2011 - 1:17pm
clueless one
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When to sell...great

When to sell...great question. I'll hang on and use as a barter item. I can't quit my job, have monthly bills and a mortgage, and mouths to feed...but, rather than let the EE win, I took a couple small loans from the 401k before it's worthless, which I'm paying myself back via paychecks. Paid off all credit cards, bought some phyzz and more importantly, food and protection. My job will probably be one of the last ones to go, so I'm hedging in a way. I can add to the stack here and there, have no credit card debt, a small stack of PM's, protection and food, and cash left over at the end of the month.

May not be the smartest way to go about it, but I feel this is where the good Lord has led me ever since I woke up about a year ago. 

Best thing that I did, was realize I could absolutely live a simpler life and be much, much happier. No money worries anymore, because I don't need much. Material stuff was the burden, imho. I could care less now after realizing what is truly important...and it ain't status. Have a loving family and a roof over our heads, clothes on our backs and food on our table...still employed, thankfully, and counting my blessings each and every day. Heck, my wife lost her job a few months back...and let me tell you, the stress level in our home has disappeared completely. I thought it would be a disaster...turns out, it's been a true blessing. Brought us closer together and made us realize what matters.

All I can do now, is wait...and stack when possible. If Silv hits a couple hundred, then I can pay off any debt and move on accordingly. For me, it's all about ending the debt slavery...and helping out where I can, be it fixing a neighbors' mower or making donations to others not so fortunate. If I can do that, I'll die a happy man. I truly will. I don't want riches...I just want to be free of the slavery.

God bless you guys for the insight and assistance you bring to the table...it's helped me in ways you can't even imagine, and mean that with the utmost sincerity.

And a very special thanks to TF...for simply stepping up and helping the little guys of the world. You sir, are a Saint.

Be well, all.

"For nothing is secret, that shall not be made manifest; neither any thing hid, that shall not be known and come abroad" Luke 8:17 sounds a little like the current times, eh?
Sun, Aug 21, 2011 - 2:46pm
Vypuero
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in that case

If you are "saving" in silver, then just sell when you need it. Don't try to time it. If you have any friends who want to buy PMs then they can buy it say for spot price or spot +$1 per coin, which is what I did when a friend of mine did the same.

Sun, Aug 21, 2011 - 3:22pm (Reply to #8)
Mudsharkbytes
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Instrument

Yeah, sort-of off topic.

Much as I want to brag about it, not really comfortable going into details.

I will say this - it's a custom jazz model acoustic / electric mandolin that would be proud to stand next to anything David Grissman owns or Lloyd Loar built.

When I finally get it, I'll probably take a pic and use it as my avatar.

Which sort-of leads me into an aside. If you're going to trade, sell your PMs for something, at least try to put it into something that will also serve as somewhat of a hedge against inflation. There are lots of things out there - art (by well established artists) comes to mind first, as does high end musical instrument such as the one I'm having built. Sure, PMs will rise higher in value over the long term, but at least if I'm going to trade in some ounces for a purchase, the item I'm getting in return WILL increase in value over the long term too - just not as much, and, of course, it's not fungible.

Ever price an old Gibson mandolin these days? What used to sell for around $6 in the 1920s now commands prices in excess of $1000. Some Martin ukuleles from the same period can go for as much as $30,000! Seems outrageous to me, but I've seen 'em sell on eBay for that much.

Sun, Aug 21, 2011 - 3:37pm
Dr Durden
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x10 on not buying physical on

x10 on not buying physical on a trade. Buy, hold, ride out the storm. If you cannot handle the volatility and feel the need to jump ship, then it's the wrong place to park your money IMO.

At the same time, I understand getting pinched and you might need some cash. When to sell in this case? I'd personally look at the relative price movement based on a moving average. Silver has traded between .95 and 1.40 times it's 200MA since the beginning of the bull market in 2003. At the peak before the May takedown silver hit 1.66x it's 200ma and eventually bounced off it a couple times in late June, early July. Right now we're at about 1.20x.

This might be something objective and useful going forward.

Got GIABO? "It's called the American dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it." ~George Carlin
Sun, Aug 21, 2011 - 4:26pm
SilverFocker
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Sell it when you must

There is no real answer to your question, I no longer have long term savings, I buy PM's for the long haul......If I really needed to I would sell some, it would be no different than taking money out of savings.