If we go stage #3, the first things that happen is that newcomers get butchered

I think there is a significant chance that a small amount of public participation will occur soon, and likely the johnny-come-latelys are going to be butchered by it. Just like the first-time buyers who picked silver up at $40+ and didn't sell in time did. I don't know, maybe I'm completely wrong, picked the idea up from a KWN interview and then elaborated a bit. The whole thing here :

https://savecapitalism.wordpress.com/2011/08/08/gold-investment-advice-serious-such/