Juniors with Near Term Production

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Thu, Sep 8, 2011 - 3:34pm
metcoalfan
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DVM

Glad to have gotten you over here - I've noticed we've followed a bunch of the same companies the last few years and it's always a plus in my book when I see you on a company's board over at SH.

I've had Croc so long I totally forgot about putting it on here - frustratingly laggard share price, but then that is part and parcel of stumbling on a truly cheap miner. Ideally Cosmo can get online and get their cost & cash flow situation turned around.

If you've not been to Turd's page before, his daily blog posts are among the best, if not the best, I've seen anywhere, brilliant dude. And the forums here are a nice complement to the more company specific boards on SH.

Thu, Sep 8, 2011 - 3:39pm
metcoalfan
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CMC Metals

Teeny Tiny CMC - roughly 20 mm market cap, but it's mostly silver with little gold, but possibly a noble metal or two. They are at the point of large bulk sampling - stating intent a few months back to do a 2500 ton bulk sample in 2011. Their last bulk sample of roughly 100 tons contained 133 oz silver per ton - so 2500 x 133 x 40 would be revenue of 13 mm. I can't find cost info anywhere though. Needs a lot more dd.

Mon, Sep 19, 2011 - 2:16pm
metcoalfan
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Endeavour Mining

271 mm market cap.....but these guys have 195 mm in cash and marketable securities (174 & 21 mm respectively). Back that off the market cap and operations are going for less than 100mm. Last qtr operating profit was almost 15 mm, and that would have been at closer to 1500 gold I believe. Haven't looked at the ramifications of the upcoming merger (friendly), but this seems really really cheap and worth a much closer inspection.

Thu, Feb 16, 2012 - 4:00pm
metcoalfan
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Took a little break....

Digging back into my favorite part of the mining sector, the tiny juniors (nano/micro) on verge of production, and cash flow!!

Looking at UC Resources today. V.UC. 12 million market cap, and they just recently sold off a project for 6 million....cash....so they got cash. They did park a portion of that in Sprott Physcial Silver Trust, I like that sort of decision on the part of mgmt. They are in production with their own mill - 200tpd. But it's not yet commercial production, so they don't report oz. Mill needs about 500k in improvements to hit commercial production according to mgmt. Need to do more work on it, but throwing it out there for comments. MCF

Thu, Feb 16, 2012 - 4:17pm
metcoalfan
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Abcourt Mines

20 million market cap, with 5 mm in the bank. They have two past producers in the stable. Dewatering of Elder Mine could be finished in 2 months, with surface stockpiling of ore possible by end of '12. No mill, they'd have to contract out for custom milling. (~135,000 tonnes per year with an average grade around 6+ g/T)

Fri, Feb 17, 2012 - 12:38am
Koddo
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Fire River

So I was taking a look at Fire River Gold for the first time. I first looked at the stock price - near an all time low, so I thought, interesting. I go to their website and read about their property, dear lord, nothing about this company excites me to the smallest degree. I realize they picked up the property on the cheap but man, seems like they really have their work cutout for them to convince shareholders this company will not just mine for break even, or produce a small profit, and then whither away. They are convinced that additional drilling will drum up some more ounces but they don't have barely any in the bank so it just seems like an unnecessary gamble buying this company.

Just curious on someone's positive take on this company other than the cheap equipment/property they bought, which appears to be out in the middle of nowhere with a landing strip... which makes it meh too.

Fri, Feb 17, 2012 - 9:59am Koddo
metcoalfan
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Fire River

First I'd like to note that I don't put my picks on here, just prospects that need further vetting. Second, since I'm mostly adding nano caps under 50 million market cap that are close to or in production, they will have their fleas. My background prior to mining was bankruptcy investing, so I'm partial to these cheap plays - trying to identify the specific reasons they have fallen out of bed with the market in general and then trying to assess if those problems can be rectified, and if mgmt is capable.

I largely agree with your assessment. Two big problems with Fire River that have cropped up since I mentioned it many months ago - 1) they announced that one of the richest ore bodies in the mine plan had already been stoped out by the previous miner - must have taken some time one way or the other to reach that level. 2) Within just the past few weeks, they announced that the camp was essentially stranded without fuel and running low on supplies. While that is an inherent risk of running a remote camp, it also reflects rather poorly on mgmt for not pre-provisioning adequate supplies and fuel. Cash costs are also no doubt highly influenced by fuel prices here, and that's a little scary too. I'm keeping it on my watch list for now with a small placeholder position.

Fri, Aug 24, 2012 - 4:35pm
metcoalfan
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Pricing has gotten really compelling, and POG is looking strong

in ever more turbulent times. Starting a project to move my favorite niche (and most unfavorite companies) back to the front burner. A lot of these are well below half what they were 6 months ago, yet are now into production...and hopefully a good way through the painful production ramp process. Looking for any names turdites can add to the list. As stated at the beginning, being on this list is not a function of merits or being a 'buy' - it's just a list of juniors who are in or are close to (like 6-9 months) production, with a market cap of less than 100 million, give or take. The entering production phase is the worst part of the valuation life cycle for a miner, which is why I prefer it - lots of distress as its put up or shut up time, and Murphy's law reigns supreme. If anyone knows of a company that fits the bill, please add it in, especially if everyone else in the market despises it right now.

My tentative list, again just a starting point for DD project and not a rec: American Bonanza, Metanor, Armistice, Golden Band, Carpathian, Gyphon, Scorpio Gold, Tirex, Sutter Gold, Caledonia, Atna, Bralorne, NWM, Timberline, Alhambra, Orosur, Oroco, Luna, Rambler, Gold Ore, Crocodile, CMC Metals, UC Resources and Abcourt Mines.

Fri, Aug 24, 2012 - 5:08pm
metcoalfan
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Click through on this link

https://www.canadianfinancing.com/mining/

Great link in and of itself, but I think it confirms what I've been feeling in my bones....look at the volume of deals in April, then May, and then June, then July and August is off the scale - money is coming back into the Junior sector in a big big way, and this deal flow list is possible the best visualization I've come across.

Looking at the column on far right - August is mostly closed deals....April/May was all proposals, nothing closing.

Fri, Aug 24, 2012 - 6:46pm
Eric Original
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Arian Silver might fit your

Arian Silver might fit your list. They were mining under a contract milling arrangement. Then lost their mill. Now have a letter of intent for a newer and better one.

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Fri, Aug 24, 2012 - 7:36pm Eric Original
metcoalfan
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Thx Eric

Been diving back into the list and already seeing a few that have altered significantly for the worse over the last 6 months, for reasons other than price - and they are all worse on that metric. I've only kept up closely on a few in the interim, in part focusing on other parts of the market. There was little point in fighting an outgoing tide. I'm feeling a disturbance in the force now though and it's a little bit exciting, especially at these prices. Miners are priced worse than late '08 in some cases, but with significant development work done and a really nice POG. As with the dot.com companies, this feels like a 2.0 version - crap that roared forward in '09 isn't going to necessarily catch the breaks this time around. For sure there is a lot of crap on my list, but I plan to inspect every last piece of pooh. If you know of any with a great project but crappy mgmt - that's really what I'm looking for - these Canadian miners are over rife with incompetent/self-dealing mgmt.

Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 2:36pm
pickaxe
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Cardero Resources

MetCoal - any thoughts on Cardero's met coal project in BC?

Thanks, ~pickaxe

~pickaxe
Wed, Sep 5, 2012 - 12:38pm
metcoalfan
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Cardero

Pickaxe - metcoal was the commodity that originally got me looking at the Canadian resource stocks, but I've moved farther and farther away from it - it's so tied to economic expansion and I'm not overly sanguine about prospects there. I am familiar with that Peace River area and one big problem up there is skilled labor scarcity. Most of the companies don't discuss that publicly, but it's their #1 private complaint. There are many mines in the area, and it isn't a really great place to live....so they wind up scalping each others employees which is harsh on labor costs. And then they wind up having to hire less than skilled workers - and they can botch up operations in a million different surprising ways. Plus BC isn't the greatest these days with gov't regs. I'm not overly familiar with Cardero or it's project - but those are major issues up around Tumbler Ridge.

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