Juniors with Near Term Production

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Sat, Aug 27, 2011 - 11:21pm
metcoalfan
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I think I've finally answered my own question

As I said a big dilemma I've had is going with small fries or majors to start out with. Intuitively it does seem like the majors should run first, but I've been fighting the idea to put dollars there. Right now it really seems to make the most sense that picking a solid junior works best, dart boarding a major works second best, and taking random bets on the rest of the penny stocks is really dumb (it would only creep to a solid second place after the majors took a good heavy run). It makes the Penny Arcade and all the rest of the ideas on Turd's page priceless. That this site exists and is so popular is one of those often overlooked but strongest market signals. Thx Turd, on both counts.

Sun, Aug 28, 2011 - 2:23pm metcoalfan
TheGoodDoctor
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Actually Gold Corp. and

Actually Gold Corp. and Barrick have a billion ounces each of silver. I don't own them but want to. These are worth it. I think the Penny Arcade stuff is worth it too. And there is plenty of info on juniors and how to pick them around here.

But I wouldn't wait too long. You have to get rid of that stage fright eventually.

“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.” Norm Franz
Sun, Aug 28, 2011 - 8:13pm
metcoalfan
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I'm feeling more comfortable taking a pass on the big boys.

I do appreciate your thoughts, they helped me sort mine out. I'll be better at picking 10 cent companies that hit .50 or better before Barrick ever hits 200. I saw an article by Tom Calandra this morning and I meant to post it but now I can't seem to find it. The gist was that the big boys are sending out a new breed of analysts to comb through the 100 million to 1 billion market cap companies, and that this is a relatively new phenomenon. I want to play where they won't go, and they won't by and large go below 100 million because if they find something they like, it's too hard for them to scale in with necessary size. That makes the bottom less efficient, or at least a more even playing field. The only thing that scares me is not having the best possible odds in my favor.

Mon, Aug 29, 2011 - 3:09am metcoalfan
TheGoodDoctor
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That is how you limit your

That is how you limit your risk is buying in to some of the big boys. Anyway, I would like to see that article. I also think it is wise to get a few companies that might be bought out or joint ventured to the big boys. Will give you a nice pop. Best of luck to you on the companies you choose.

“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.” Norm Franz
Tue, Aug 30, 2011 - 7:49pm
1trojan
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how about a new producer

What do you guys think of monument mining mmy.v I own a starter position. I like their financials , good cash flow. .62 cents 182million shares o/s 319.6 fully diluted.

They produced 44,438 oz last quarter and their operating costs are low and should be generating a lot of cash the coming quarters. But their producing mine right now has a 5 year mine life. Not sure how to value their earlier stage properties.

Tue, Aug 30, 2011 - 8:17pm
metcoalfan
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Gave MMY a five minute look...

I like it so far. Home on my iPAD and there is some dd I prefer on this, and some places I only like to check on a desktop, especially Sedar. I noticed a high degree of frustration on the SH board, in past experience that is one of those really good intangible x factors IMO. Why the huge diff. with fully diluted o/s? Warrants or mgmt options? If warrants, at what strike? What is Malaysia like politically?

Tue, Aug 30, 2011 - 8:22pm
metcoalfan
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Oroco

Been picking up some Oroco the past few days at .30 range. They are probably 12 months out from production, but have a gold stream loan close to done. Feaz suggests production would be around 25k oz, and 7k would go to lender for first 3 years. Costs in the 500 range. Market cap is 18 million....that is pretty much the operating cash flow after you back off the stream in year one.

Tue, Aug 30, 2011 - 8:36pm
metcoalfan
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Orosur

I keep forgetting to dd this one, and keep forgetting it's name, so I'm putting it down cause I come back to this list when I have time. Market cap under 100 million, they did 55k oz this past year and roughly the same the year before, at cash costs between 725 and 800....725 this year and 800 last. I need to check mine life, exploration potential and jurisdiction...seems very cheap for an established producer.

Tue, Aug 30, 2011 - 8:49pm metcoalfan
infinite_easing
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What is Malaysia like politically?

haven't been for a couple years, but it is a moderate Muslim state, with a stable government. The state level governments have widely varying political sympathies, though only a couple are what we might consider "radical". On the whole the central government is able to keep a fairly tight lid on things.

Wed, Aug 31, 2011 - 12:04pm
metcoalfan
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I like that MMY more and more...much appreciated infinite

Wed, Aug 31, 2011 - 12:47pm
metcoalfan
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HCA - Timberline (TLR) does look very solid as well

I sorta like the concept of a miner with their own drills. I have some of that one and thought I had put it on the list, but maybe I posted it on a different thread. Thx for adding it. I was just going through from the beginning and noticed I never put Golden Band on here either. So many emerging miners and so little time.

Wed, Aug 31, 2011 - 12:50pm
metcoalfan
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Golden Band

Wed, Aug 31, 2011 - 12:50pm
metcoalfan
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Golden Band

Thu, Sep 1, 2011 - 1:38pm
Eric Original
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Update on Armistice recently

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Wed, Sep 7, 2011 - 12:32pm Eric Original
metcoalfan
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Luna Gold

She ain't the cheapest at 250ish market cap, but she is starting to hit her stride production wise and I like the way those guys over at Sandstorm pick 'em. On the prospect list for further dd.

https://www.stockhouse.com/tools/?page=%2FFinancialTools%2Fsn%5Fnewsreleases%2Easp%3Fsymbol%3DV%2ELGC%26newsid%3D8296707

Wed, Sep 7, 2011 - 12:44pm
metcoalfan
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Rambler

Back to a better size with 62 mm market cap - another Sandstorm streamer - on the list for further dd, especially full production guidance which I haven't found yet, nor the cut that Sandstorm gets.

https://www.stockhouse.com/tools/?page=%2FFinancialTools%2Fsn%5Fnewsreleases%2Easp%3Fsymbol%3DV%2ERAB%26newsid%3D8285431

Thu, Sep 8, 2011 - 12:17pm metcoalfan
GoldistheFuture
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Monument looks very good!

Great Cash Flow, Very low cost of production, future projects. It seems way undervalued. Will do some more DD but so far it looks solid!

Stupid is, is what stupid does...
Thu, Sep 8, 2011 - 12:23pm
DetVicMackey
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Thanks mfc for bringing me to

Thanks mfc for bringing me to this awesome site. There seems to be many investors here that have a similar taste in low risk high reward junior producers. I own shares in many of the stocks listed in this thread with the others on a watch list.

Thu, Sep 8, 2011 - 12:38pm
DetVicMackey
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Crocodile Gold (CRK)

Market cap just over $220M but should produce 150,000oz in 2012 when their flagship Cosmo mine ramps towards full production. Cash costs are above average from $900-1000/oz which makes them highly leveraged to gold prices. Very cheap valuation since it's been in the penalty box for years of overpromising and underdelivering. They have multiple open pit mines across a huge land package with various high grade intercepts within those deposits. The company however is prone to heavy rainfall and only now have begun implementing plans to stockpile more ore for the rainy season. Longer term I think production can reach 200,000oz+ and cash costs to fall towards $700-800/oz. About $80M in working capital after Q2 and expected to end the year with $50M.

Thu, Sep 8, 2011 - 12:47pm
DetVicMackey
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Gold-Ore Resources (GOZ)

Long time gold producer still not getting much love by the market. Production has gradually increased YOY and should be about 45-50koz in 2012. Cash costs ranging from $850-950/oz depending on grades. Market cap about only $80M. Management continues to replace reserves and extend mine life. Not much in terms of a growth profile, but really undervalued in terms of cash flow. $15M in working capital as of Q2. The Bjorkdal mine is one of the world's environmentally friendly mines since no cyanide is used and tailings are extremely clean.

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