Timing to Buy

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#1 Sat, Jul 16, 2011 - 2:14am
StartThePurple
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Timing to Buy

First off, I’m a huge fan of this site – not only because of all of the great stuff from Turd, but also because of the community. I read the blog and forums nearly every day and have learned a ton. Everyone is extremely helpful.

Anyway, I’m now planning to pop my gold cherry and buy some physical. Of course, timing is everything and you’re looking at the guy who bought silver back in late April in the high 40s (emotions got the best of me).

Having said that, I’m a little hesitant to buy physical right now. What a run we’ve seen in gold the past week+! We’ve had such a good run that it seems like gold is sure to back off a bit, but what if it doesn’t? What if the summer doldrums are over and it’s off to the races? 

Do folks see a correction coming (at least short term) and should I wait and bide my time, or is this the start of something big? I’d hate to buy now and then watch the price plummet (even though I am a firm believer in the fundamentals and am in for the long haul). 

Thanks for your thoughts!

Edited by: StartThePurple on Nov 8, 2014 - 5:31am
Sat, Jul 16, 2011 - 2:28am
stalking wolf
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it's hard to lose?

It seems to me with my meager 15 hat tips and 70 posts that you can't lose right now? Not for a while, the long is your game, if your the little person? It seems you'd like to be heavy in silver since the gold silver ratio (GSR) is in silver's favor at the current 40-1.

"A building's form should follow it's function", Howard Roarke.
Sat, Jul 16, 2011 - 7:37pm
Captain Benny
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Correction

Correction? Yes I see a correction coming and its actually rather high up from the $39 we're at today. We're going to end the year with new all time highs in silver and we're in a bull market beyond belief. So yes, I'm still buying on a regular basis.

If you're asking about the short term as in this next week, well I'd say we could see silver come down $2-4 before it blasts above $40 again. If there is no $3+ pullback this coming week, then we've been given the all clear to move up to $43-45 range.

You shouldn't be worrying about the $2-3 moves right now, when silver hits the new highs you'll look back and laugh that you were worried about a $1 move in a day or $5 move in a week. There are so many derivatives wrapped around silver right now that when it hits $45-50 its going to erupt to making $10+ moves upward. The supply is too tight to meet market demand.


Remember: People are paying 19.32% more for Sprott's silver than the "spot" price. Do you know what kind of premium that is? With silver spot at 39.27, they are paying $7.58 PREMIUM​ just to know that there is physical metal to back their investment. Keep things in perspective and realize that the demand is absolutely massive for silver.

Sun, Jul 17, 2011 - 3:04pm
Rico
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@purple, Let's say you buy

@purple,

Let's say you buy tomorrow, around $1600. By next Monday, it's $1500--which would be a huge retracement, given the look of the chart. How much have you "lost"? $100. Why worry about it? If you wait, when it's 1600, 1700, etc, you will be even more anxious.

Sun, Jul 24, 2011 - 10:18pm
Jasper Puddlemaker
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StartThePurple wrote: Do

StartThePurple wrote:

Do folks see a correction coming (at least short term) and should I wait and bide my time, or is this the start of something big?

Congratulations; you have done what everyone has done (bought when higher). It only hurts for awhile (*if* the overall trend is still up).

Please don't rely on someone else's opinion about when to buy (or sell). At least don't rely on "free" advice. If timing is that important to you then learn some basic technical analysis. If you learn some basic TA you will probably still end up buying at the wrong time, and also occasionally at the right time, but at least you will only have yourself to blame or thank :) Isn't that the way it should be?

Sun, Jul 24, 2011 - 10:59pm
Dr Durden
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Heard the best quote the

Heard the best quote the other day regarding the nature of a bull market. I'm murdering it but it goes something like this: when the bull really starts running it's going to try to throw everyone off it's back that it can.

Point being, within bull markets those that wait to jump on and ride tend to miss out and those that make it on board need to hold tight.

So you buy 1 oz today at $1600. You hold for 5 years min. Gold goes to $1650, then back down to $1500 then to $1800, back to $1650, then to $2000, $3000, $4000.....∞

Every time it corrects, you WILL read "it's over, told you it was too expensive." Been happening since $250 oz. Fact is, gold has a predictable, average $30 per month gain since the bull market started. No other asset performs such beautifully and with such poise over time IMHO.

I tell this story all the time. A friend and I were talking gold investing in 2007 when it just crossed $800 oz. We couldn't fathom why anyone would pay THAT MUCH for it. 3 short years later, well guess what? The rest is ancient history....

Got GIABO? "It's called the American dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it." ~George Carlin
Sun, Jul 24, 2011 - 11:17pm
Bobbi
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It's all relative

So, we started buying gold in late '08. And we worried well, what if the price goes down in the immediate future? It is something we all have to deal with/overcome. Having been there, done that, I can confidently tell you just buy it and hold it and cost-average in. Don't second-guess yourself. 

We are still buying ... bought some more on Friday :)

Sun, Jul 24, 2011 - 11:44pm
Dr Durden
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And it pays to shop around to

And it pays to shop around and be patient to DCA your fiat in. I just got a Chinese Panda for ~4% under current spot. It's one way to buffer from corrections and not let yourself get sucked into buying up the wall of worry. 

Got GIABO? "It's called the American dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it." ~George Carlin
Mon, Jul 25, 2011 - 1:06am
CK
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If you care a lot about the

If you care a lot about the timing, I say wait till the end of September. Expecting a nice drop after August. Still think prices will go higher before they go lower. Might see a dip for the first week and a half of August. 

Cost averaging by buying every month is a very solid move.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
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