Gents It amazes me that are people here who have a really clear understanding of the markets, though at the same time can write pieces where they sincerely believe that quite soon NYC, for example, is going to look something like the final scenes of "Zombie Flesheaters". I think you need to consider howv resilient communities are when put under great stress e.g. London in 1940 and that even takes into account revisionist histories of the civilian experience of WW2 by people such as Alexander Calder. I do have my stash of food and water, though no guns and ammo as this is the UK. However this is on the basis that in the time of a severe economic dislocation, I do not want to be pissed off with the hassle of having to deal with panic buyers swamping the supermarkets and petrol stations, such as happened during the fuel protests in 2000. Panic buying is more likely an outcome for us than Bristol than the city turning into something like the Warsaw Ghetto. Here in Europe, even in the unlikely outcome that should we find ourselves living under a police state, Warsaw in 1981, rather than 1941provides a guide to what more than likely would happen. In that the 1981 declaration of martial of law did see the odd "whiff of grapeshot" to show who was actually in control for the moment, but save the rationing, empty shops and a burgeoning black market, as per the experiences of my relatives who lived their at the time, life more or less went on as normal.
I for one do not know what the heck nyc would like look. i could say that while manhattan would be pretty safe, i couldnt say the same for east new york, brooklyn, ALL OF THE BRONX, parts of queens, et. al. See those are the counties outside manhattan and are the areas directly outside the manhattan power center. lok at crime rates, poverty, and ebt usage..same goes for D.C. my personal thinking is while i would be okay in nyc, it does not hurt to have a lesser know , path less traveled dwelling away from densely populated areas that goes in line with the prepare accordingly meme. capital and malinvestment ( read stocks) have been diverted to assure proper investment in this area.
'Patriots A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse' and 'How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It' written by James Wesley, Rawles should be added to your summer reading list. I will give you the short version, Rawles narrows it down to two scenarios 1) Grid Up: Deep Depression, 2) Grid Down: Significant Die Off.
Is it really a good laugh?
"Hope for the best and plan for the worst"
No one really knows how things will look, at the same time do not be sure things will be so calm and normality will rein. In a true global economy this effect will be global, nothing we have in our history to look back on.
We are an odd lot in this country, if kids were to lose the ability to game 24/7 parents will double up on Valium, so it could be a zombie effect, not to mention the missing EBT cards for the masses.
As far as NY, LOL good luck with that one, Manhattan will get crushed.
Things will be different here than across the pond, that you can bank on.
When in Newark New Jersey the crime is already so bad that the city council has mandated fast food joints to have armed guards on duty after 9pm, I don't see how you can not help but to expect a complete break down in society when the economy collapses. https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/City-Council-Votes-for-Armed-Guard...
When someone I'm chatting with disagrees with my expectation of a societal break down, they usually point to the Great Depression in the 1930s. I counter this with this argument: The societies of 1930 and today couldn't be any farther apart. In the 1930s over half of Americans were still farmers. If you were not, you either already knew how to farm and/or had a farm in the family you could go back to (I.e. your parents, siblings, uncles, etc.). Also the society of 1930 was much more courteous and had morality about it. Today, much less so.
Today, less than 2% of Americans are farmers. Most Americans are at least 2 generations removed from farming. So they have absolutely no way of providing for theirselves when the global food system breaks down (and it will). Because they are so far removed from their food and are brainwashed idiots, this sets off their primal instinct of doing whatever is necessary to survive. When they realize they may starve to death, they will lose it. Do you really believe that when two people come across a bag of rice one will concede and say, "I'm hungry but it looks like you need this worse than me, so you can take this one and I'll continue to look for another one!" I would not want to be in NYC or any other large city when things really start breaking down. All one has to do is just look at hurricane katrina in 2005. Americans are so complacent and use to having everything on demand and when this ends, they are in for a real shock, and it wont be a pretty scene.
Nobody knows for certain what will happen but an honest risk assessment will indicate that the upside potential for violence and crime is HUGE. That may not equate to "Zombie Flesheaters" scenes but I guarantee it will be no laughing matter for those involved.
Katrina has many good examples to draw from for at least a partial picture of what could happen in a collapse. I would add Fernando Aguirre's book to required reading as well for getting an idea of what to expect:
The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse
Here's the general problem with thinking that things will be fairly civilized if there was an economic collapse :
What is left of the civil society? Almost nothing! How many drones who live wholly, or partially on federal aid, benefits, vouchers, tax deductions, handouts or other "free shit" are there in relation to people who take care of themselves? This ratio has been rising constantly for more than 50 years. Just ask yourself this : If there was ONE single weeks delay to all welfare payments, in how many cities would there be riots? If there were TWO weeks delay, in how many cities? Three months? This kind of exercise quickly tells you what to make of the situation.
Now, the US is both better of and worse off than Europe, I'd say. The US is better of because you can protect yourself, and from what I've heard, there are still small communities here and there one can try and flee to. You are worse off, because you have never had to ration welfare before - in Europe its a constant political battle on who gets what share of the loot. The US, in this aspect, resembles Greece - while many other countries in Europe have not been able to be as profligate as Greece for decades. The european welfare model has already started hollowing out. The US has long pretended that there is no end to the loot. And from what I've understood, it seems that in many parts of the US, all it takes is a natural disaster for all hell to break lose. Japan after the latest tsunami - no reported instances of any looting, rioting, crime or anything, as far as I know.
Not until civil society re-emerges after the storm can there be any "recovery". That could take a few years, or decades, or centuries. All I know is most of us will have to live through it, in one part of the world or other.
Ali G comes to NY with a business idea
Jason King wrote: I do have my stash of food and water, though no guns and ammo as this is the UK... ...Here in Europe, even in the unlikely outcome that should we find ourselves living under a police state...
equating London at the height of the blitz and 2011 is a losing formula IMHO. I understand that your point is to illustrate that things have been worse and despite the relative collapse of infrastructure within "the city" the English carried on.
The reason I think this conclusion isn't valid are for the following reasons
1. Nationalist feelings for fighting the right war
2. England could still draw upon her vast global holdings
3. The US was offering lend lease which amounts to unlimited credit
Where are the nationalist feelings now ? the last time I saw any vestige of it was when the Royal Navy sailed to engage the Argentinian junta.
Where are the vast global holdings now ? The North Sea appears to have passed her peak as a source of easy capital.
Who is offering the UK unlimited credit ? the IMF ? ECB ? Bank of England ? any confidence in that lot ?
Nothing wrong with being prepared but I'd be willing to bet you that the average person in 80s Warsaw is a far sight better prepared to go without than your typical 2011 London bloke.
I recommend buying toilet paper. Unlimited shelf life and always of value to someone.
New Orleans, post Katrina.
Enough said. If you can't see the barbarism that comes out when a group of armed individuals seek to control a group of unarmed individuals who are starving/dying of thirst/infected with disease, then you're going to be in for a rough lesson.
Pax I have not got any problems with gun ownership the only thing that does not fit with me is that for those who do have them is the credibility of their use. its a bit like a nuclear weapon given the ciircumstances would you really use it? let alone have you thought of the consequences of using a AK47in the close quarters of your house, how you are going to dispose of the corpse or how are you going to fight off the inevitable retribution from the gang/ethnic group you have now been sucked into an ongoing conflict with.? for me guns are just a baby's dummy for Walter Mitty types who fancy themselves as Charles Bronson Donpaulo
You should have been here on the day of Prince Williams wedding. I agree the UK has nothing to offer the world except insolvent financial services companies but is that not the case with America too? Remember your principle export to the Far East is only soybeans? Agreed toilet paper will be worth it's weight in gold as per the experiences of the citizens of Sarajevo https://www.survivalblog.com/2010/09/letter_re_survival_tips_from_a.html For those of you who are obsessed about Katrina being an indicator of a complete descent into the depths of hell being the likely outcome for any urban centre in the middle of a disaster have a read of this on what really happened https://www.wsws.org/articles/2005/sep2005/brit-s09.shtml
I don't know anything about you.. but you have an invite to the range any time you want to swim on over. I'll take you out with some buddies of mine and we'll have a great time.
I truly think you have the extremely wrong impression about gun ownership in America. We're not buying guns to go Charles Bronson, Dirty Harry or Mad Max.. we don't buy them because we WANT to use them in the sense that you think we do. No.. this is not the case. I own mine in the case that I might need it.. but I certainly do not go looking for a reason to use them in a deadly fashion. Shit.. I'd much rather go out to the range with the guys and have a good time.
Now, this is probably a bad bet.. but I'm willing to make that bet that you've not been to the range and or fired a weapon; but if you have, you were probably overwhelmed by the conscious understanding of its' power. If the latter.. good for you.. now just over come that fear and gain some confidence that you are in control. The weapon doesn't jump up and start firing on its own. When idle and unloaded, it's no more dangerous than a broom stick.
...in light of the conversation, I often refer back to this bit of info to give a mental picture & frame 'why' katrina happened the way it did. I found this letter to be outstanding not in the sense of fear-mongering but trying to understand and frame the behavior that occurs in an urban landscape. From someone who has rubbed elbows among all cultures, ethnicities, and income levels from the most bourgeois multimillionaire / corporate CEO to the grittiest ex-felon thug-life gangsta, this article rings true.
I used to be in the naval reserves so I am familiar with these small arms and I have nothing against a day on the range, the only problem is that with the RNR you still have to buy your own ammo despite you using navy guns https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SA80 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Browning_L9A1 I just cannot see them being of any utility in a domestic situation, once you have crossed the threshold it's you against them. I presume gangs/other ethnic groups are going to be the key problem not the a lone interloper on your property
Well, the old saying goes.. "You don't need it until you do..." I'd prefer to not need it.. but I sure as hell want it around in case I do.
Jason King wrote: Gents It amazes me that are people here who have a really clear understanding of the markets, though at the same time can write pieces where they sincerely believe that quite soon NYC, for example, is going to look something like the final scenes of "Zombie Flesheaters". I think you need to consider how resilient communities are when put under great stress...
I agree with you. There will always be pockets of insanity during crisis times (we all know the areas/communities that are prone to that), but overall American society is orderly and resilient. There is an outspoken segment of folks in the US who treat TEOTWAWKI books such as "Patriots" as prophecy. They believe we will jump, almost overnight, from being a functioning society to one of utter chaos. They prep with that in mind. (Sometimes I wonder if that mindset is an excuse to keep buying more "toys.") I think they are wrong; there is way too much "Hollywood" in their thought processes. But they are outspoken about it and are all over the internet. Our history (and the history of other civilized nations) shows that we work our way out of crisis situations without going "Mad Max." Could it be "different" this one time? I suppose; but my money is on history rhyming.
Now... as for firearms... :) We Americans apparently view them in a much different way than does the rest of the world. What is not to love about a nice combination of metal and wood (or plastic) that works together in a way that allows you to make a big "bang" and knock things over? A great sport and hobby, but also an insurance policy on freedom.
Ok, I should probably get ready for a few incoming rounds from my "Mad Max" cousins...
I agree with the Katrina comparison. It's hard for us to wrap our brains around what a currency crisis really does. It is so far removed from what we normally experience that you think it can't possibly happen. That's exactly why when it happens, it will be bad.
With Katrina, they knew it was coming, it was on TV constantly. They had time to prepare and leave, and they still didn't/couldn't. This storm is worse than katrina. Only a few can see it. And the TV tells you to stay right where you are, everything is fine.
Jason King wrote: You should have been here on the day of Prince Williams wedding. I agree the UK has nothing to offer the world except insolvent financial services companies but is that not the case with America too? Remember your principle export to the Far East is only soybeans? Agreed toilet paper will be worth it's weight in gold as per the experiences of the citizens of Sarajevo https://www.survivalblog.com/2010/09/letter_re_survival_tips_from_a.html
valid points all, I respectfully submit that comparing a wedding and a negative black swan event is rather foolhardy and not applicable in any real sense.
also speaking of toilet paper, I wonder do you know offhand how much public wealth was flushed down the toilet in celebration of this royal wedding ?
I would go so far as to say the cost would easily keep all libraries in the UK open an extra hour a week for a decade. Why the police overtime alone could have easily helped pay for at least part of Chancellor of the Exchequer bailout of the Icelandic crisis.
With all due respect to the UK.
It will not get like zombie land, that's true. But if you haven't lived here in the States then you are not keenly aware of the attitudes and culture of guns and frontier like justice/existence in our culture and citizens. We split off from Britain long ago because a certain segment of that Empire had enough of tyranny.
The rebellious DNA that has endured and strengthened over the centuries is far more intense then you might imagine. There are so many guns and "willing" users of them that there is a reason why Japan wouldn't even consider invading us in WWII...and that was 65 years ago.
There are lots of guns and lots of attitudes over here and the DNA of the new patriots hasn't changed at all.
It will get ugly and I'm not proud of it but I do acknowledge that the potential and will is here to protect and procure whatever needs to be done at the time the SHTF. It sucks to say, but there is a reason more people are murdered here (by other citizens, not govt.'s) then any other industrialized nation.
An epic lack of foresight, accuracy and rationale... https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/170246#comment-170246