What's your secret BTFD strategy??

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#1 Fri, Jul 1, 2011 - 2:42pm
Dr Durden
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What's your secret BTFD strategy??

I guess the doldrums are in full effect and since it's 100*F here today in the shade, the government is so broke they have to take a sick day, I thought what a better way to beat the heat than to talk about this nice silver sale the EE has given us.

I'm feeling a growing consensus around the forums/blogdom that in-demand physical supplies are running thin and sort of an anxious attitude of "get it while you can."

So I'm curious how everyone is playing this out. 

What is your strategy going forward?

Do you automatically, on principal buy every dip? Set price targets and buy only when they're met? Dollar cost average? Save up dry powder and back up the truck when spot hits the marks the "experts" claim to forsee in the future? Buy whatever you can now and forget about the small price swings? Buy the first upleg before it takes off and never comes back down? Buy only on weekends when spot is stable?

Lets talk details. Many newcomers are getting into the game and could benefit from our experience.

Edited by: Dr Durden on Nov 8, 2014 - 5:09am
Fri, Jul 1, 2011 - 3:26pm
Sockeye
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The Bell Will Ring

Shut off the damn TV & Radio & Music and sit in total quiet.

Listen carefully

For Whom the Bell Tolls.

Shut down your own thoughts in your mind.

Sit with a blank mind.

Sit in silence waiting for the quiet voice to ring the bell. 

And from within you shall KNOW that the time has come.

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.
Fri, Jul 1, 2011 - 6:17pm
Pax Argentum
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Well, the first step in BTFD

Well, the first step in BTFD is to define what you call a FD, since price volatility is the norm these days.

Of all the strategies enumerated here and elsewhere, and there are many good ones, I tend to go with an educated guess.

Specifically, I hit a few quality PM blogs daily, this one and Santa's chief among them, occasionally will take the time to try to understand the technical analysis of a Trader Dan (a stretch for me), and then fill in the bigger picture by catching the most recent Celente, Sprott, or Schiff. I'm also a ZH-addict but I hear there's a 12-step program for that.

After I've completed a given month's prep purchases, I decide how much fiat I need to keep on hand versus the need to protect it in PMs, based upon how fast the fires are spreading here in the U.S. and across the globe.

Is this a f***ing dip? Compared to the run up to $50 it sure is. What if it drops to $25 in a month? I'll buy then too. My outlook is measured in years, rather than weeks or months.

Every purchase is a risk (duh) but in these days of extreme uncertainty, NOT to purchase is also a risk.

Disclosure: I bought 10 ASEs today at $5 over spot and it felt really good to stack them with their sisters.

Best, Pax

Fri, Jul 1, 2011 - 8:38pm
Jimbio
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I've never tried it, but this

I've never tried it, but this is what i'm gonna try next time around.

Everytime there's a dip, i ask myself: "If i had a long now, would i panic and sell?" If i answer yes, then i buy.

Will this work?

Edit: fyi/disclosure; i'm really prone to panic.

Fri, Jul 1, 2011 - 8:42pm (Reply to #4)
Eric Original
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jimbio

Yes, I think that works. But it's hard to do. Hard to tell which is your momentum monkey panicky self, and which is your calm cool contrarian self.

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Sat, Jul 2, 2011 - 8:43am
bigmark99
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My plan

I by a little silver every paycheck, if the price is at or under the price point I have set. If the price is over, I save and wait.

The simple plan is buy all I can, wait for run up and sell and start over again.

 What I should do is buy a safe instead of using local bank to store my silver and save the fee's.

I know its simple but it works for me.

Sat, Jul 2, 2011 - 9:12am
zopilote
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I buy then watch it go lower

Well, I'm buying physical when the budget permits and trading etfs in the IRA. That is, I'm learning to trade etfs in the IRA. I like SCO (dbl short crude), UCO (dbl long crude) and UGL (dbl long gold). I don't short and I don't use margin (too inexperienced)

I watch for the range it's trading in, then wait until it drops to the bottom/top of that range and buy small. The trouble is, it always seems to choose that time to move outside the trading range. I think the key is to not panic and sell - I'm not on margin so I can wait if need be. I put in a limit sell one point higher (we're not talking high finance here) and leave it alone. That helps me keep a cooler head. 

BTW, don't try this with AGQ - the moves are too huge. Right now it drops more in one day than I can stand. I found myself panic selling too often (having been caught in the May downdraft) which just guarantees a loss. Instead, by waiting for the computer to sell at a small gain, I find myself pleasantly surprised later by an email announcing my successful sell. Meanwhile, I watch for the next opportunity, having kept dry powder.

Finally, I don't like to go against the trend - bull or bear. That way lie monsters. A small dip in the big trend on news that will later turn out to be unimportant - like the recent news of release of SPR oil and the consequent brief dip of crude price - is the safest. 

I'm waiting for Turd to announce the chance to back up the truck, however. 

Patience my a$$...gonna sell something.
Sat, Jul 2, 2011 - 1:11pm
Fighting Gael
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simple strategy

the simplest is u buy massive positions when silver hits or goes under the 200 day moving average.....

all other buys are over priced short term......................................

Sat, Jul 2, 2011 - 1:46pm (Reply to #8)
Pablo
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Dollar Cost Average

We have a set weekly budget that comes out of the paychecks, we have a $ limit per week. If the trends is up we might borrow a little budget from the following week, if the trend is down we might postpone an oz or two until the next week.

Tue, Jul 19, 2011 - 4:59pm
Dr Durden
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Using the recent intermediate

Using the recent intermediate high of $40.60 as a basis, I'm looking to buy a roll of Maples at a 5% drop [$38.60] and back up the fing truck at a 10% pull back which would put us back at $36.50. If we take off again and never look back then I feel I have enough and will sit flat in cash.

Got GIABO? "It's called the American dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it." ~George Carlin
Tue, Jul 19, 2011 - 5:17pm (Reply to #8)
pailin
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Fighting Gael wrote: the

Fighting Gael wrote:

the simplest is u buy massive positions when silver hits or goes under the 200 day moving average.....

all other buys are over priced short term......................................

So no buys since August 23, 2010? I call BS on that.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Aug 4, 2011 - 12:55pm
Dr Durden
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Fingers crossed for $38.

Fingers crossed for $38. Figure a 10% off sale from $42 or so. 

Got GIABO? "It's called the American dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it." ~George Carlin
Thu, Aug 4, 2011 - 4:32pm
SilverSurfer21
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Aug 38 SLV Calls

Just picked up some August SLV $38 calls for cheap. Expires in 2 weeks and I think we'll be back to at least 39-40 by next week. With Gold over still over $1600, there's no way they can continue to keep Silver under $40 

Fri, Aug 5, 2011 - 10:55am
Dr Durden
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Never got $38,

Never got $38, dammit. 

Strategy going forward is to stay flat. If by some miracle the mega deflation scare brings us down to $32, then I walk to the coin shop with an empty duffel bag to drop my DCA down a bit. For now I ride the waves.

Got GIABO? "It's called the American dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it." ~George Carlin

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