I have a long time farmer friend here in west Tn. that raises a few thousand bales of cotton every year. We had a real cool and damp spring here and cotton planting was delayed a good many days. I went out to the farm to see him the other day and I asked him how his cotton was doing and his response was " It looks real good as long as you don't look at the calendar" Thats the way it is here but in a normal year it would be blooming by the 4th of July but its a good two weeks from that now. He has quit drinking but he has not lost his sense of humor. Great guy
Cotton report OT but kinda funny
Very on topic as we discuss inaccurate or manipulated government reports. I can't buy the extra cotton acres as most of it is in drought stricken Texas and SW US. And like your friend said, his crop is late and so is some of the corn crop. USDA left yields the same although it is most likely we see less than trendline yields. And time will tell if the corn acres go down due to flood losses.
anyone know why? Is it a buy here at these prices?
Art Lomax, do you have a buy target? I'm looking for important MAs, but can't find a good chart.
The breakdancing Granny is getting torched right now in Cotton. I am buying slivers on down but expected this thing to bottom temporarily around 70. Now it looks like it could fall lower. Anyone have any wise and experienced feedback on this thing. Its falling right now like WTC 7. Is this real response to supply and demand and weather or is this some kind of game played on the inside?
thanks, Granny the sale shopper
I'm no cotton expert, but I have heard there are contract default issues in the world cotton trade. Supposedly US firms sold cotton to foreign buyers (India, Pakistan, ect) earlier this year when the old crop futures were up near $2.00. These were high priced trades sold to buyers at a fixed price and covered from farmers at a fixed price. Market has corrected and buyers are not wanting to honor contracts. This leaves the cotton merchant having bought high priced cotton with no sale. Could place some cotton merchants in a financial bind or unable to honor farmer contracts. Remember US does not use any cotton, almost all of it is exported. Can be hard to enforce a contract with a foreign entity.
This info is second hand and shared for discussion purposes only. Please do not rely on this for trading.
did a little looking for news here; couldn't find much. india a mess but can't seem to export much. bought some thurs and fri; too early? we'll see. target=1.22 for dec. back home tues a.m.
Thanks to you Lomax, I always appreciate your knowledge on the grains and Ag Com.
Looks like Cotton may be getting up off the canvas at least temporarily. And Corn has come roaring back over the Obottom's attempted manipulation entry. The Market speaks.
Looks like you made a good trade buying cotton. Certainly appears it was oversold and due a bounce. Granny feeling better now. I might try to buy March contract in the 95 area.
With respect to Art's comment last week, here's an FT article discussing canceled contracts and export orders from 7/14:
"Texas grew 43 per cent of last year’s 18m-bale cotton crop in the US, the world’s top exporter of the fibre, with the main cotton lands in the high plains encircling Lubbock. The US Department of Agriculture last week cut its forecast for this year’s domestic cotton crop by 1m bales to 16m, as farmers abandoned a record 30 per cent of their fields."
Granny is back down at the auction house to buy more Cotton. She does not know if it goes lower for the time being but she does know that it is now 50% off its highs. It is the most discounted item on the menu, including gold stocks in her opinion.
The cure for high prices is...high prices. Now we'll see some demand inch back just in time to buy some big Panama hats and fancy ourselves Cotton Merchants!...yeah, that's the ticket!...Cotton Merchants!...kinda like Lehman Brothers!
Loved this shot too from article. It's Brazil!
I've stayed away from cotton for over a year but I'm in now. Just bought a March contract at 95.55 with another order in at 95. I think the deferred month will be a safer play expecting the inverse to go away.
July 22, 2011 Spot cotton quotations averaged eleven cents lower than the previous week, according to the USDA, Agricultural Marketing ServiceÂ’s Cotton Program. Quotations for the base quality of cotton (color 41, leaf 4, staple 34, mike 35-36 and 43-49, strength 26.5-28.4, uniformity 81) in the seven designated markets averaged 106.77 cents per pound for the week ended Thursday, July 21, 2011. The weekly average was down from 117.85 cents last week, but up from 76.19 cents reported the corresponding period a year ago. Daily average quotations ranged from a high of 108.90 cents on Friday, July 15, to a low of 104.25 cents on Monday, July 18. Spot transactions reported in the Daily Spot Cotton Quotations for the week ended July 21 totaled 265 bales. This compares to 2,228 bales last week and 0 bales reported a year ago. Total spot transactions for the season were 646,463 bales, compared to 888,355 bales the corresponding week a year ago. The ICE October settlement prices ended the week at 99.33 cents, compared to 106.35 cents last week.
By July 17, seventy-one percent of the cotton was at or beyond the squaring stage, 14 percentage points behind
last year and 8 points behind the 5-year average. Cotton on the High Plains of Texas was in need of moisture,
while some dryland cotton on the Low Plains was abandoned, due to a lack of germination. By weekÂ’s end, 31
percent of the nationÂ’s crop was setting bolls. This was 8 percentage points behind last year and 3 points behind
the 5-year average. Overall, 28 percent of the cotton crop was reported in good-to-excellent condition,
unchanged from last week, but 40 percentage points below the same time last year.
Just added another March contract at 95.00.
don't look now D E but BAL is on the move and looks to be coming out of the cellar on good volume. I don't know much about science books, don't know much about the French I took, don't know much about Algebra, don't know what a slide rule is for, but I do know accumulation when I see it. Its 50% off its highs this year and not so long ago.
Chillaxing, as the kids say. Family doing well, so the irreplaceable is in good shape. Haven't been following too much news, as it is so bad, but cotton looking better, corn looking better, PMs looking better and Swissie headed for moon vs. Euro and Dollar -- not sure how Swiss and Japanese are going to handle these exchange rates other than try and change them. Oil falling down, so I guess I missed peace and love breaking out in all the OPEC countries. Time to snooze!