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Euro Crosses

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#1 Tue, Jun 28, 2011 - 8:49am
D E
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571
1935

Euro Crosses

Not sure if there's any interest, but these FX currency crosses enable one to trade the Euro against something other than the dollar. May be of interest, especially since Canadian and Australian currencies are viewed as more tied to real assets due to natural resource-based economies. I'm not an expert by any means, but hope to contribute something and learn as well.

Edited by: D E on Nov 8, 2014 - 5:15am
Tue, Jun 28, 2011 - 8:55am
D E
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571
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Going Short

Going short the Euro/Chf cross on spike from "optimism" of Lagarde's heading up the IMF...because last French head of IMF did so well...

GLTA

Tue, Jun 28, 2011 - 1:04pm
D E
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571
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More Short

selling more at 1.1940-50

Tue, Jun 28, 2011 - 4:28pm
D E
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571
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Position Update

Here's how I'm going into the close (any changes will be noted):

Shorted 8 units, bought back two to generate a little house money;

Net short 6 units at 1.1928, so I'm underwater now.

Looking for flight to safety to take this down to 1.1850 to lock in some profit; stop over 1.2275 with plenty of powder to average in if I have to.

Will check back in tonight after corn-fed beef and bourbon; soaking up the corn crop anyway I can.

Wed, Jun 29, 2011 - 7:42am
D E
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571
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Got my gas mask on

and am shorting more at 1.2050

Wed, Jun 29, 2011 - 9:36am
D E
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571
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now what?

core position remains as of last night; shorting more at 1.2050 to scalp w/cover at 1.2000; PMs have been trading w/euro, but maybe that will change again;

GLTA

Wed, Jun 29, 2011 - 3:58pm
D E
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571
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Euro/CHF short taking it on

Euro/CHF short taking it on the chin, but still in and larger. 1.1976

Overall position theme: the Euros are lying about how bad things are for the PIIGS in the sty...

GLTA

Thu, Jun 30, 2011 - 2:15pm
D E
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571
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Could be worse

I could be long corn too...oops. Still in. 

Tue, Jul 5, 2011 - 12:15pm
D E
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571
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still in

Looking better today, but still underwater. Not hungover at least.

Tue, Jul 5, 2011 - 4:47pm (Reply to #9)
atlee
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eur/usd

Hey DE

Thanks for starting this thread. I am trading currency too but I have a vendetta with the EUR/USD. Thursday and Friday of this week are important days. ECB rate hike 100% chance of 25 basis points and 40% chance of a 50 bp hike baked in the market. What is said after the announcement is just as important as the actual hike (hawkish?) How do rate hikes relate to PIIGS. Then Friday NFP looking for increase of 100K in jobs. Depending on how bad this number is might be what starts a discussion of more QE.

Good luck with your position. I believe the Euro is a huge short but the interest rate differential has been holding it up. My thought was that after QE ended that we would see a spike in interest rates and that differential would vanish and the Euro would return to 130 or lower.

Tue, Jul 5, 2011 - 11:15pm (Reply to #10)
D E
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571
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eur/usd

Sorry for getting back so late, but I haven't been checking this as much. Here's my take, FWIW: trading eur/usd pair is very tough, because you have two central banks intent on devaluing. It makes no sense at all for the euros to raise rates, as it kills economic activity in the PIIGS and they aren't really digging a high exchange rate for their exports. So they have to talk a tough game on inflation, try and tamp down on volatility and save the periphery; not an easy game to play. I got killed about three months ago shorting euro vs. dollar as I couldn't believe they would raise rates--they did, and after that, the POS went down. I made it out alive, but the holding period was longer and the red ink larger than I liked. After that, I figured that dollar vs. yen or euro or pound was too dangerous for me to play as they all are in a race to devalue (may be changing; see PIMCO piece ref'd on ZH). That led me to look at PMs valued in different currencies to see how weak/strong they were vs. something real. The Swiss Franc, although not backed by gold, is issued by a country with a shitpot full of gold and an independent standing outside the EU. With the Bernankenstein Buck, the Swissie becomes a stand in for gold in flight to safety situations for euro holders (not without risk, however: Swiss exports are eating it due to high exchange rates and tourists are spending less there or not going at all; Swiss central bankers are not shy about intervening to teach speculators painful lessons). 

So much for the word salad. This week, I'd stay clear of shorting the Euro until after the rate announcement is made, and look for an entry during Trichet's comments -- he always causes wide swings, which can be traded if one has live quotes and quick fingers. If he gets the euro above 1.4550 USD, that would probably get Euro/Chf back around 1.23+ level--that would get me to short some more up to 1.26 with a stop at 1.2650 (Again, I won't play in the euro/usd club right now -- trying to choose between two babes is hard to do, and if they're both ugly, what's the point?). I believe Euro/Chf is headed back to 1.1850 and lower and screwed the pooch by being impatient; still in original trade at 1.1976. Will not increase position unless above 1.23 and can scale more up to 1.26 (risk reward better then; current position r/r is shot to hell already). My time frame ends in mid-Sept.

All the usual caveats apply: do your own analysis, make your own decisions and eat your own cooking. These markets are dangerous right now; props to Turd and Pailin for enjoying the summer.

GLTA

Wed, Jul 6, 2011 - 2:13pm
D E
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571
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Looking better

Still in current trade, short eur/chf at 1.1976. Looks like some good (bad for me) support at 1.1950; we got to 1.19667 today. If we get to 1.1925 by 5 pm edt, I'll take some profit to buy more Tums; if not, will reassess tonight.

Eurozone looks in full blown crisis, with Portugal and Ireland really in the crapper and now Italy catching the flight to safety flu. And the answer is to raise rates? I don't trust these EU bureaucrats any more than I trust Tiny Tim G. Biggest beneficiary seems to be gold, with silver joining the party. I'm listening to the Turd and Pailin here on PMs: too scared to be long or short and grateful I got a lucky short cover as I snoozed.

Thu, Jul 7, 2011 - 4:15pm
D E
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571
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Still the Same

Again, still in current trade, short eur/chf at 1.1976. Looks like some good (bad for me) support at 1.1950; we got to 1.19767 today, but then spiked back up because everything in EuroLand is looking so wonderful. The Trickster raised his rate, while dumping trucks full of fiat paper into Portugal in exchange for "certified government paper" from that deadbeat, basket case of sloth. He also praised Italy for their austerity budget, which also goosed the Euro, given the well-deserved credibility Italian government bookkeeping enjoys, well, everywhere! But hey, the ECB will remain vigilant regarding inflation -- good for them! They should be as vigilant as the fucking nobility in France circa 1789, and enjoy the same fate.

Anyway, I think I'll mosey on over to the Corn Forum, where the other yellow stuff caught a bid today, maybe because of all the buying out of China. Why were they buying? Because the price is cheaper after our brain dead boys in DC knocked the price down with their bullshit report, after jacking the price up the last few years with the ethanol boondoggle in the face of growing global demand. These assholes can figure out how to increase deficit spending coming and going and can't make it work for the country on either end of the trade.

Fri, Jul 8, 2011 - 10:20am
D E
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571
1935

STILL

STILL in current trade, short eur/chf at 1.1976. If we get to 1.1955 today, I'm out with a small tuition rebate.

Bad entry point on my part. A bit enthusiastic on how lousy the Euro is; also needed to consider how badly a high Swissie hurts their exports. Then again, they have a 3% unemployment rate...

Fri, Jul 8, 2011 - 10:32am
D E
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571
1935

OUT

All out...That was pleasant...

Mon, Jul 11, 2011 - 2:27pm
D E
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Funny? Funny how?

Ok, so I got out last week , and...now it's gone!

My target was 1.1850 and lower -- didn't see 1.1675 as imminent...

Will not trade this right now, as I would expect a dead-cat but am too fearful of central bank meddling.

GLTA

Thu, Jul 21, 2011 - 8:40am
D E
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571
1935

New Trade

Attempting new short at 1.7250. Target: 1.650 for today; half off there; let rest ride for 1.500 target. Plenty of powder to add.

Fri, Jul 22, 2011 - 7:23am (Reply to #17)
D E
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571
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added more

added more @1.1825; average is 1.1780

Fri, Jul 22, 2011 - 8:32am
D E
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571
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some off

taking off today's 1.1825 at 1.1750; letting rest ride

Fri, Jul 22, 2011 - 11:30am
D E
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571
1935

weekend

trying to exit today at 1.1700 to go home flat

Sat, Jul 23, 2011 - 9:08am (Reply to #20)
D E
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didn't get hit

Carrying small position into weekend; no one hit my bid so still short. Trade worked out, but not best entry level again. Still, a gain is a gain, and in the meantime, I found out that as I close the trades, they settle in CHF...so I'm building a small holding of Swiss Francs. I'm ok with that.

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