Bitcoin and alt currencies discussion

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#1 Sat, Jan 2, 2021 - 11:17am
silverseeker
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Bitcoin and alt currencies discussion

I hope anyone with information they wish to share about the merits and risks associated with digital currency may post here; for the benefit and consideration of other TFMR members.

A grain of sand in the gearbox of tyranny

Sat, Jan 2, 2021 - 12:19pm
dangerkitty
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Gold!

BTC is on top of podium.

Thanks for starting the crypto thread silverseeker!! While BTC is anti-dollar, promoting harmony on a metals forum, gold & silver being anti-dollar too, it'll foster better community relations, and we've always looked to support each other!!

Investing dot com list of crypto's LINK

Crypto market caps LINK

Sat, Jan 2, 2021 - 1:46pm dangerkitty
silverseeker
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Thanks dangerkitty!

There's another seldom visited forum in 'stackers and preppers' called Kinesis Monetary System ; which is a great thread supporting a hybrid approach of a Gold linked digital currency which affords its holder usage dividends, and a velocity token speculative option as well.

Hopefully we can share some objective views here of the same spirit!

A grain of sand in the gearbox of tyranny

Sat, Jan 2, 2021 - 4:31pm
SteveW
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Bitcoin: A conspiracy theory...maybe true, like many others

Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System" was published in late 2008 and BTC launched in 2009. At the time I wondered how a limited supply of BTC could possibly give it value (in that respect it was like gold). The real advance that SN solved, whoever (s)he is, they are, was a incorruptible ledger that could be distributed. Thus many other, equally limited, coins could be launched, although BTC had first mover advantage.

This is all well known but my sense is that the background to this innovation has totally fallen down the rabbit hole. I doubt that more than 1 in 100 know this background.

"HOW TO MAKE A MINT: THE CRYPTOGRAPHY OF ANONYMOUS ELECTRONIC CASH

Laurie Law, Susan Sabett, Jerry SolinasNational Security Agency Office of Information Security Research and TechnologyCryptology Division

18 June 1996"

https://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/classes/6.805/articles/money/nsamint/ns...

This NSA paper, published 12 years before Nakamoto, considers but does not solve the double spending problem. It seems quite possible that over that decade the NSA cryptography division solved that problem by invention of the original blockchain protocol and collectively published their solution under the SN banner.

Thus I have always considered Bitcoin to be a Trojan Horse and even though I could have purchased at less than $1 I have never regretted the fact that I am not a multi-millionaire. I have sufficient.

It does seem that the recent explosion in fiat value has been due to hedge funds, money managers and wealthy individuals making mega purchases of Bitcoin. I wonder how much of this is "officially sanctioned" in order to draw capital away from the metals market.

Well it's certainly a time of great change and an interesting time to be alive.

“Don't walk behind me; I may not lead. Don't walk in front of me; I may not follow. Just walk beside me and be my friend.” ― Albert Camus

Sat, Jan 2, 2021 - 7:12pm
dangerkitty
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Zerohedge article BTC & ETH

I guess that there is a supply squeeze going on in BTC, so here's the link.

LINK, Zerohedge BTC

Sat, Jan 2, 2021 - 10:32pm SteveW
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Round trip ticket vs One Way?

SteveW; that would explain the timing of this rally; kicked off on 1st delivery notice day July 27th; just as the Comex and LBMA were suffering delivery stress.

2017 FOMO buyers at $15-20k were fleeced, price was reset, then washed in March 2020. Speaking of Trojan Horses and a reset; would a soaring BTC price quote that suddenly becomes illiquid not be impetus for a 'proper crisis-solution reckoning of wild digital currency by the authorities whom can protect you best?' A crash from $20k to $4k wipes out some pocket change. A crash from $100k to $20k wipes out lives.

Along those lines; can anyone explain why there is minimal increase in BTC trading volume? Typically you see a ramp in volume of willing bid/asks during a major rally... and this rally is supposedly institutions buying in? This dearth of volume suggests that the whales whom purportedly hold 95% of BTC are not selling; causing a short squeeze on low float. This presents a major problem when volume gaps appear in the price progression... low liquidity cuts both ways and I question loudly; what are the motives of these whales? Sometimes being a small fry can work to your advantage. If you have enjoyed a 3x, 5x or greater gain, just selling 1/3 or 1/5th of your position eliminates your investment exposure; and you can let the balance ride higher, or DCA on the next dip.

Add free charts with TradingView.

A grain of sand in the gearbox of tyranny

Sun, Jan 3, 2021 - 8:16am
murphy
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Interesting

thread.

Many feel that this #Bitcoin market cycle is accelerating faster than 2017. As things heat up it's instructive to look back at past cycles to see how on-chain metrics moved and get some context into our current trajectory.

🧵with comparison charts 👇

— typerbole (@typerbole) January 2, 2021
Sun, Jan 3, 2021 - 8:38am
4 oz
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BTC

Well depending on how I look at it...I've screwed up on BTC three times now.

#1 Back in 2011-2012 when a friend was excited about this stuff called Bitcoin. He kept telling me to get in...begged me practically to take the summers beer money and put it into BTC...I'd never miss the calories he said....but for $2 a piece there was no way I was gonna put that kinda cash into that speculative ....beer money...sheesh, that'd have set me back $150 bucks or something.....

#2 Back in spring 2017 opened a Coinbase and started playing in crypto getting some BTC, ETH & LTC. Actually got ahead a little bit. But I hated it. Was fun somehow too, but I had zero confidence in this computer tech crypto stuff. What if the power was out...how does my BTC help me in that situation? Then article after feature telling of the IRS busting the chops of Coinbase....took my 'winnings' and off to JMB where the whole Coinbase account went into PM's that were sent right to my door..... and I was out...relieved.....shaking my head that .08 BTC/$600 had put metal in my hand with some mouse clicks.........

And now #3 here as 2021 begins completely on the sidelines, and way okay with that...haven't looked back since......the self confessed idiot said.

Sun, Jan 3, 2021 - 10:11am
PoBaloney
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I am sure everyone here is familiar......

with Willy Woo's work. This is a "way old" piece of his work. November 12th 2020 is ancient within the Crypto space. Willy is well respected in the space of Crytology:

https://cryptounit.com/2020/11/12/willy-woo-claims-btc-price-will-peak-i...

Cheers......EvAvenger

Sun, Jan 3, 2021 - 2:21pm SteveW
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If you are really

interested in the 'origins' I suggest you start with this article. LOTS here to spur research...

"02.01.1993 12:00 PM

Crypto Rebels

It's the FBIs, NSAs, and Equifaxes of the world versus a swelling movement of Cypherpunks, civil libertarians, and millionaire hackers. At stake: Whether privacy will exist in the 21st century." -- https://www.wired.com/1993/02/crypto-rebels/

From the roots

"From: tcmay[at]netcom[dot]com (Timothy C. May) Subject: The Crypto Anarchist Manifesto Date: Sun, 22 Nov 92 12:11:24 PST" --

https://activism.net/cypherpunk/crypto-anarchy.html

Sun, Jan 3, 2021 - 2:22pm silverseeker
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volume

Not sure if this is right but I will put it out there...

Your chart is showing bitstamp volume. That is the volume for one exchange.

If you go to an explorer for bitcoin like this for example: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/output-volume

and compare here:

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ (select the 1 year view just to zoom in a little bit)

you will notice that overall volume has picked up. Note that the volume is in bitcoins not in USD. So even though the volume picked up in Sept/Oct and is dropping a little bit from then, the overall "value as priced in USD" seems fairly good from this fall to now... because that's what institutions will be using to buy the bitcoin with.

Also unknown is where the institutions are buying *from*. Are they active in the futures market and just say "hey we bought bitcoin" but haven't taken delivery yet?

I believe at some point it will correct and as typical in bitcoin style, the correction will be swift and merciless. We are not there yet and you have some time to purchase I would think based on hype/volume so far. We haven't gone vertical on big volume yet.

What also happens is that some announcement is made by some official entity (say, CCP says crypto exchanges will be raided, etc...) and down it goes. Or the gov. in the USA lets the banks know a negative bit of news is coming and they position themselves in the future mkt before hand. No warning to us of course.

Disclaimer: I'm not a professional and can't give trading advice so make up your own mind.

Mon, Jan 4, 2021 - 5:12pm
silverseeker
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Thanks for noting the exchange volume, versus total volume

That makes sense; considering the huge price deviation relative to the underlying volume.

A grain of sand in the gearbox of tyranny

Mon, Jan 4, 2021 - 7:52pm
dangerkitty
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BTC coming back

BTC is now at $32,800 after a volatile day, meanwhile ETH is up 54% in last 7-days.

Funny how all my friends who didn't get into BTC 5 years ago, now all of a sudden asking me about it. lol. I'm trying my best not to take that as a 'shoe-shine boy' moment.

Wed, Jan 6, 2021 - 8:32pm
dangerkitty
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Wowzers

Just saw BTC crack through $37,000. At this rate, I might be able to retire at the end of the month. lol. I won't but it's sure fun to dream.

Seems like it started to take off as the Capital building was being occupied, I remember back in the day gold would react, not today.

Sat, Jan 9, 2021 - 7:48pm
dangerkitty
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Trend line still holding BTC

Wish I could post a chart, the trend line that started at 3PM low the Jan 6 is still holding on the one hour chart, BTC bounced off it at 6PM today and now climbing again.

Mon, Jan 11, 2021 - 1:48pm
PoBaloney
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BTC 4 Hour Chart

I use the 4 hour chart for BTC. Trading on a 24/7 cycle it gives me the right amount of info I need to see. Looks like we need to build some support in current area , that said being BTC it should happen fast as recent consolidations will attest too. Note the very OS conditions on my 3 main indicators and previous vertical lines of OS conditions. Not sure if anyone comes across this thread to view this but I do ot dare post a "God Forbid" BTC chart on Main Page Forum............. Good luck all!

Mon, Jan 11, 2021 - 1:50pm
PoBaloney
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OOOOPS!

would help if I posted chart...............

Mon, Jan 11, 2021 - 8:27pm
dangerkitty
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Great chart

Thanks for posting, that chart gives a good view, and you're more than welcome to post more charts as you see fit.

BTC is at $35,400.

I heard that there was an order imbalance at Coinbase, started this down draft, don't have the link, but this thing was so over stretched, a pull back overdue.

Sat, Jan 16, 2021 - 9:03pm
silverseeker
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Link to insights from a BTC trader

https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-do...

I cannot verify anything this person speaks of; but it does offer some insight to the opaque 'stable coin' and Tether relationship to BTC trading, and alt currency- off currency exchanges.

If you read the above; next go to GBTC and look at the 'premium to NAV' ratio people are paying real dollars for exposure; and think about what that means if there is a leveraged long on the other side.

https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/discount_or_premium_to_nav

I only post the above as raw info to persue.... nothing is so hot as a one way leveraged bet; and sadly; Greyscale is taking in real investor dollars and buying exposure at premium on a very opaque 'asset'

A grain of sand in the gearbox of tyranny

randomness