Just arrived from Peak Prosperity, asking your opinions.
Are you buying physical metals at these premiums?
Gold or Silver?
If not, what will have to happen for you to start back buying?
Any thoughts will be greatly appreciated!
Years ago I finished buying the amount of silver I desired for my 'insurance' and I have sat on it ever since.
I nearly sprang for a monster box or two about 6-7 weeks ago, didn't follow through and silver went back up. The next time I went to look after silver had dropped a bunch the premiums were through the roof. Of course the covid-19 caused the run on metals and cleaned out the mints and nearly everything else also.
My silver was bought with premiums between $.89-$2.99 and even though I would love to take advantage of the spot price and GSR above 100, I will not pay the current premium prices. The availability is poor as well right now for any junk silver or ASEs that I would be interested in.
There are two factors: spot price and premiums.
As "sierra skier" said, the premiums for silver are VERY high right now. This happens when silver hits news lows (which it did in March) which then gets everyone buying physical and driving the price up. This also happened in October 2008. I would wait a bit for this reason.
Premiums for gold, on the other hand are not TOO bad.
The spot price of silver is OK, but is it going to go up or down? This is a big question. I think it will go down more. (Though I did just buy a small amount of "junk silver".)
This spot price of gold is higher, but I think this is the one with a much better chance to go up soon. Maybe we get another dip to buy in May?
This is all conjecture.
If you don't have any gold or silver, I would suggest buying some pre-1933 gold ($5 or $10 coins) to get into the game. Your understanding of the market will increase if you fork out a few bucks. Maybe also some pre-65 silver (junk).
This is the best price I know of:
Right now, it is also important with regards to how much cash you have on hand. In the insanity that is likely to happen over the next months/year, gold might be good, but cash will definitely be good to have.
My two cents.
First, thanks for your response!
I currently have some of both, but with the "insanity" it makes me question whether I need to draw off some more. I think I will some gold, and your point on silver is well taken, I will hold off on it for a while. Appreciate the new source.
Regarding you comment on cash, I agree. I have been out of the "market" (not a market) and all in cash for several years, except for my coin. The "insanity" has me worried about cash-in-the-bank. Currently I'm in middle-rated commercial banks with mortgage default exposure. FDIC, but I figure that may default as well, or be hung up for years and then only get part. My gut tells me to take it all out, vaccum-seal it and bury it in my back yard. (Like my great-grandad did after he lost money to defaults in the GD) Thoughts on what to do to protect cash?
Thanks again!, RD
I was on the hunt at "antique "stores and resale shops for old Morgans before the lockdown. A lot of times the dealers set their price at the beginning of the month and are not sensitive to market moves. Sometimes there is value to be found.
Depending upon the size of your stack , level of fear, availability, resources to spend and assessment of future economic environment should all be considered. To me its ounces in hand not fiat price paid.
I miss my old dog.
10-4 on level of fear and ounces in hand.
my gut says ignore the premium and buy some more. Fiat is the walking dead.
thanks for the input!
Are we going to see inflation or deflation?
I think the immediate danger is definitely deflation. Great examples from the last couple days are oil and palladium. There's no more available storage for oil, so oil storage fees are VERY expensive in Texas right now. Palladium dropped over 10% in one day!
If you look at some charts for 2008, you can see the type of across-the-board price drops you can get: stocks, oil, gold, silver, wheat, real estate, etc.
This is a more immediate danger than cash in the bank, in my opinion. (Unless your money is in Europe, in which case that is a very high danger right now! Banks will screw depositors in the EU before the US, so use that as warning sign.)
But what do I know?
I think it is a good idea to study a bit on the 2007-2008 crisis. I don't think it will be the same, but some things will be similar. I believe this is going to be more like 911 + 2008 financial crisis together.
If this lock down continues for much longer, it will be worse than that.