#1 Sat, Jun 25, 2011 - 3:17pm
CAD broke decisively below 1.02 during NA trading, finally, after many attempts. It had broken lower in euro trading a few times, but always roared back as soon as NA trading started.
I covered some of my short CAD position at 1.02, as that had always worked before, but not this time!
Since then, I have continued buying slowly, and will buy some more on Monday if we get under 1.01, and I would back up the truck at par.
This is just a short term trade, and my plan is to sell my CAD at 1.02 on the rally I expect once Greece passes the austerity program on Tuesday.
Since CAD follows oil and the S&P, depending on the day, I also play around with HOU and HOD on the TSX. I had bought oil (via HOU) at 6.03, but since sold that and reversed, am now short oil (via HOD at 7.42) It's just a small position, and I expect I will lose on it on Tuesday as oil rises with the Greek news, but I now see that as a great chance to short oil, I think we'll see $85 easily.
I'll add to HOD from 7.42 to 7.00
I don't expect CAD to break below par anytime soon, but it's possible if S&P crashes, as it might. I just don't think it happens yet. The Greek event has been pushed back another 3 months, so lots of time to rally before the inevitable crash.
Edited by: humahuaca on Nov 8, 2014 - 5:15am