Getting Real, Real Fast

Fri, Jun 1, 2012 - 10:29am

Your blissfully unaware family and friends notwithstanding, the global financial "situation" appears to be deteriorating rapidly. I hope you have prepared accordingly.

First this morning, I suppose we should address this month's BLSBS. As you know, the period between 8:25 EDT and 8:35 EDT on the first Friday of the month is the only time all month when I actually watch CNBS. Today, the usual crowd of misfits populated my screen. There was The Shill happily expecting glorious growth. The Coug was prowling and LIESman was stuttering, as usual. Then, the party ended when we went "Live to Hampton Pearson at the Labor Department". No real reason for me to rehash the dismal numbers with you as I'm sure you've had enough of that already. I don't wish to add some color, however.

  • The media will tell you today that gold is rallying on fresh "hopes" on more QE. Bunk. This is not true. Gold is rallying on fear. If gold was rallying on QE, why are stocks down? Why is crude down? Additionally, gold is rallying and extending gains because of a squeeze in the massive spec short position that has been built up over the past month or so.
  • The last commercial I saw before the numbers were released was a promo for a CNBS program that promises to "show you how you can profit from the declining euro". Looks like the bottom is close there.
  • The printed NFP was +69,000 but the "birth/death adjustment" was +204,000. This means that, without the BLS statistical make-believe, the actual number might be -135,000. I wonder how shiny LIESman's head will get as he attempts to spin that? Chances are he won't even try.
  • The 10-year note is now at 1.47%. This is incredible! Even using the nonsensical and worthless CPI, the 10-yr now has a -1.0% real (inflation-adjusted) annual return.
  • The 30-year Long Bond is at 2.55%. Never in my life did I think I would see the day when the Long Bond yield fell below the stated rate of inflation. Well, OK, maybe I thought it was possible that the Long Bond might yield 10% when the CPI was 12% but parity? At 2.5% Amazing!
  • And crude is now down over 20% in the past month alone. This in spite of the ongoing, geo-political risk in The Middle East.

Speaking of crude, anyone thinking of buying some had better take a long, hard look at the chart below.

(I just snuck a peek at gold here at 10:10 EDT. UP to $1610. Wow! Continuing to rally post the PM fix. Very surprising.)

As stated above, the metals soared on the BLSBS and are continuing to rally. Fear, short-squeezing and QE anticipation are driving things higher. For gold, a move through and close above $1610 would be very exciting. Your short-term target to watch in silver is $29.

I mentioned negative, real interest rates above. Remember, negative real rates are a hugely positive indicator for the precious metals. If you need a refresher on this, go here:

Today's CoT is going to be very, very interesting when it is released at 3:30 EDT. I'll be sure to post some comments and analysis once I see the numbers.

Lastly, please take a few minutes to page through this scribd doc. It was written by Raoul Pal, one of the most successful hedge funds managers of all time. Doom? Gloom? Yes. Heed his warnings.

The End Game

I cannot imagine that I won't have more for you later on this crazy, crazy day so please keep checking back. Gold is now 1617! WOW!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jun 1, 2012 - 4:31pm


Hi ivars, yes they have to be either simmered at 160 to 200 degrees for twenty minutes or dried at 200 degrees. No you do not have to drink any urine, :). It is said that the ancients drank their own urine after ingesting and that the effects of the mushroom were intensified by being thusly concentrated. I'll pass on that.

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:34pm

Urine: The body's own health

Urine: The body's own health drink? Some claim it cures everything from colds to cancer, while stranded hiker Paul Beck drank nothing else for six days and survived. So does urine have genuine health benefits? Maxine Frith investigates No, I haven't tried it ...just read similar article a week ago...

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:36pm

dr g

silver didn't get quite the pop cause its got the 'industrial' part........deflation fears grabbed that alittle.[grabbed everything else almost today]

we know its closer to the end silver really goes off n %wise outdoes gold.

we ain't there yet.

all this my firm opinion only.

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:37pm

Unit, that would require

Unit, that would require crap, nothing but crap to admit they were wrong...they never do or will.

I Run Bartertown
Jun 1, 2012 - 4:40pm


"The Banking Cartels think they are going to take our Social Security"

Haha! The politicians beat them to that a long time ago. But you'd think the banks would know that. General Revenues, Suckers!!!

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:40pm

Silver Shortage - not yet, ~but....

I am going out on a limb and forecasting a serious silver shortage at dealers approx. 6-7 weeks from now. We are already seeing some interesting species run out, like the 90% at tulving, right? There is still PLENTY of silver to be had, though, just a little less now than 2 weeks ago. I think that small retail investors will flood the market within 6 weeks, and accelerate a serious depletion of inventory.

Disclaimer: I just want credit for calling it first. Otherwise, I am not a professional, and have no idea what I'm talking about, ok? No liability, here. :-)

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:43pm

Ranting Andy

Ranting Andy statement at Silverseek

"June 1, 2012 will be remembered as a watershed day. “Cartel Rule #1” was already broken on Wednesday – i.e., “thou shalt not let PMs rise when the Dow plunges,” and nearly was yesterday as well, until they viciously ATTACKED PMs and GOOSED the “Dow Jones Propaganda Average” at midday. But today – with European markets already in freefall, the BLS published its third straight catastrophic NFP employment report. Upon its release, gold EXPLODED $50/oz – actually, $65/oz given its typical overnight, Cartel-induced weakness, while the Dow plunged 220 points, with three hours remaining in the trading day. Today could be THE DAY when the world realizes PMs are the true “safe havens,” catalyzing the END GAME for the ill-fated GLOBAL fiat currency system."

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:44pm

re gold in dollars and euros

Gold is, for once, up considerably in both USD and euros. This was not just a currency event, except in so much as gold obviously caught a bid as the currency of choice. The euro and the USD are going down, as are the rupee and and and ... all money made entirely of paper and worthless trinkets.

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:47pm

"Gold's 4% gain is the

"Gold's 4% gain is the biggest day since January 2009. " From... 3 years for a 4% daily gain? Wonder how many 4% or more daily drops in 3 years there were?

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:51pm


Does anyone remember this? The guy's name is Derek. Perhaps he can come on here later today and add some color?


Yes, I remember. You and moderator Jane banished his religious ideas to his own personal page here.

Your faith? LOL!

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:52pm

Just talked to my Aunt...

...She told me she bought some ' you know what' (fb) on margin! .... She is sort of pissed at cnbc, why - I just don't know...I've been trying to get her on this site for 2 years. She also told me gold was dead, oh well - you can lead a horse...

Also, I have minority friend of mine that came around today looking for work...He doesn't own a computer and can't read but was talking to me about what he saw coming down the pipe chaos-wise.....It's not like I would ever normally take what he had to say too seriously, but when someone like THIS guy is telling ME whats gonna happen when tshtf ----It tells me there are winds a blowin out there....It's good to have friends in low places sometimes. Think I might skip the round this week and go preppin this weekend...Nice to have a good finish to the week for a change, huh?

I've got a question....If we know there'll come a point when things crash before they go up, why aren't we waiting till then to btfd? Because there won't be any to be found?


Jun 1, 2012 - 4:54pm

re Derek

he is a great guy, and recognized that religion can come to dominate the main page.

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:54pm

I've been communicating with

I've been communicating with him via email in the days since so I don't think he's too pissed off.

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:54pm

Hey, Where is Victor the Cleaner?

I was hoping you would chime in this recent market activity. Perhaps also, you could update us as to the pending JP Morgue silver manipulation class action suit, in light of the Court having heard oral argument and taking the Morgue's motion to dismiss under submission?

Well, where are you?

Where are you as well, Retireyoung? Care to share any wisdom for us?

Jun 1, 2012 - 4:56pm

It ain't all rosy US Debt

It ain't all rosy...... US Debt Soars By $54 Billion Overnight, Closes May At Record $15,770,685,085,364.10 Stack-a-lacking? I wonder what the EE will discuss Saturday and Sunday at the Bilderberg weekend getaway?

Jun 1, 2012 - 5:03pm


he is a great guy, and recognized that religion can come to dominate the main page.

I've been communicating with him via email in the days since so I don't think he's too pissed off


No, just trashed.

Jun 1, 2012 - 5:06pm
Jun 1, 2012 - 5:23pm


I listen to it all day long in the background when I work from home, which is most days. They have gold bulls on the time, I'd say maybe two or three a day average. They also have gold bears on, bears probably outnumber bulls, but not by much, which I consider good, what good is listening gold bulls all day long going to do. I don't understand the hate, I've only been listening for a few months, maybe they've changed and you don't listen to anymore.

Jun 1, 2012 - 5:27pm

Rtabit, lol..

Rtabit, lol..

Jun 1, 2012 - 5:34pm


The latest from Detlev Schlichter "Is gold in a bubble"

He talks about gold's purchasing power from the 70's-current, and how it's average value is above the rate of inflation. Touches on the last four decades in more detail. A somewhat lengthy read, but good for this community.

An article by the Mogambo Guru-Richard Daughty

he highlights Ron Paul's recent article in the Financial Times, and mocks the bernake.

LMR recaptureamerica
Jun 1, 2012 - 5:50pm

data for 5% drop

This is from contributing writer Frank Holmes that I found while searching for historical data on highest percentage gold moves. So far, no success in that.

Santa's Elf
Jun 1, 2012 - 6:28pm

@ Cal Lawyer - VtC

Victor's actively posting on FOFOA and Screwtape, amongst other places

Bobbejaan George Clooney
Jun 1, 2012 - 6:47pm

OMD !! (= Oh ... My ... Dog !!)

Xty said :-

Ah, yes. But I was referring, obviously obliquely, to your nickname, which implies you might also stack these:

I think I finally understand why you keep losing your PMs overboard, XTY .... Not enough Opposable Thumbs amongst your crew for handling all that shiny & slippery metals.


Bobbejaan exiledbear
Jun 1, 2012 - 7:05pm

Duelling Drachmas ? ... OR ... Stupid Punts ?

They'll be happy to steer you to the COMEX table though, where they'll bend you over, pull your pants down and make sweet love to you.

European Translation ..... "They'll make you squeel like P.I.I.G.S."


Jun 1, 2012 - 7:11pm

Nice day

I am sorry to have missed all the fun today, but if these are the results I will stay away more often. Since it was a really rainy day we saw The Avengers. A good day all around.

@Stock Canines- two borders collies here. But I grew up with a 140lb female Newfoundland. It was the one of the best dogs you could hope for. However, NOTHING outdoes a BC for smarts, athleticism and love. Well maybe an Australian Sheepdog

Nice pic Xty

cliff 567 obiwan
Jun 1, 2012 - 7:39pm

refinancing / I'll take a shot


I have no qualifications to back this up other than my own reading.

I think that the new mortgage agreements are a lure to get a fresh signature on a new loan agreement.

The fraud in the loan rehyporforcation needs to be absolved and unless they can foreclose, the system does not work.

They eliminated the ownership trail to hide the ponsi and now they need you to reaffirm that you owe them money to re-establish the paperwork.

I say that if they are willing to give you a new note on your home, stand back and DEMAND that they produce Full Documentation of their right to claim title.

You may find that you own the property because no one else can prove a better claim.

No sin here, it was them that burned the trail.

I would wager this is a skimming op and clear titles will not get this deal.

But, what do I know?

Bobbejaan Dr G
Jun 1, 2012 - 7:41pm

The Rise and Fall of Silver

Dr G said :-

I'll take this opportunity to note that silver is still down 25% on the year.

... And I'll take this same opportunity to note that Silver is still UP about 612% on the decade.

(May 2002 average = circa $4.70 an ounce -vs- Today's price @ circa $28.78 an ounce).


The Green Manalishi
Jun 1, 2012 - 7:59pm
cliff 567
Jun 1, 2012 - 8:03pm

@Cliff 567

Certainly, one should do their own negotiating with the lender on a refinance, but with understanding of the rules.

A refinance may end up being recourse, so watch out.

Second, the paper trail may be suspect, BUT, even a refinance may not clear up a later clouded title.

I would ask for a clear chain of title, replete with documentation, before engaging in any refinance. I would also make DAMN sure that the title insurance policy does not contain exclusions which essentially leave the borrower naked of protection in the event of some adverse claim on title down the road.

I would make the new lender indemnify and defend against any adverse claim on title as a condition of signing a new loan deal. If they balk, that tells you something, no? Who bears the risk of a bad title? If the Title Ins. company excludes the past chain of title issues, like MERS, etc., then what have you really purchased? Put the risk on the lender to clear title before extending the loan. If they won't do the loan, then forget it.

Just my $0.02.

Good luck.

retireyoung California Lawyer
Jun 1, 2012 - 8:09pm

California Lawyer

I am gratified and somewhat humbled that you have taken the time to, in a manner of speaking, recognize me for the wisdom that I may or may not spread. I must have made an impression on you.

It is interesting to note that if you practiced at all at CCB in Los Angeles, we probably know each other. But I ramble.

I have to admit that you "lost me" several weeks ago in one of your postings. This was during the time of the great "troll scare". You actually cast doubts on the validity of somebody's posting because he did not make mistakes in grammar and actually used paragraphs. He didn't use Turdisms either which seemed to raise suspicious with you.

So since I do use paragraphs and do not make many grammatical mistakes and ALSO avoid Turdisms, I do not know what you will make of my posting.

But I am alive and well and living in Southern California. Thank you.

I am not sure what you expect me to say about the market activity today. Silver and gold are about back to where they were at the beginning of the year. There is no special mayhem going on in the Middle East and society as we know it is still ongoing. Shucks--what a bore. I know Turd and others here were expecting much, much more.

I own mining stock and physical so I am happy today. But I am happy most days--not expecting society to crumble anytime soon.

The USD is still the currency of choice in the world. Paper money is still being printed but there will be no QE3 anytime soon. The stock market knows that. It would be political suicide for Obama to urge another QE and next year I have great hopes we will not have Obama to deal with.

So--cheers on a good day for precious metals and I hope we have many such days to follow.


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