I must admit that days like today are really tough. The PMs are not trading on any rational fundos. They are simply reacting to headlines and the algo gyrations they cause. Yuck.
As mentioned this morning, we should all be prepared to buy any significant dip that develops. IF you get a chance to buy gold close to $1600, consider yourself fortunate. IF gold were to fall through 1600 and approach the significant support near 1585, consider yourself blessed. Silver, on the other hand, is just no fun at all. I'm now firmly in the camp that considers the margin hikes of May to have been so significant that silver can't seem to muster the open interest necessary to sustain a consequential move to the upside. The rallies are real but they don't have the depth necessary to sustain their gains. Once the buying pressure is exhausted, JPM steps in and pushes it back down. Earlier this year, rallies in silver were two-steps-forward-and-one-step-back. Now, it's more like 1:1. We had a very nice run from $34 to $41 but $42 is beginning to look like a real stretch. At this point, a pullback to $38 looks more likely in the short term. IF, by the grace of God we do see $42 this week, I plan to unwind my December call spreads and move to the sideline for a while.
Wrapping up for today, here's some user-inspired content for you to chew on. First up, ScottJ recommended this video series to me last week. Though it appears to be about a year old, you'll likely find it interesting.
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 19, 2010
I found this image on Google and it seems to sum up my point of view. We are but children, at once hopeful and optimistic, yet watching our future drain away. The arcade coin drop is a metaphor I've used often in the past and I think it provides a decent visual. In the immortal words of Inigo Montoya: Let me explain. No, there is too much. Let me sum up.
Our "coin" was dropped by the great Texas slimeball politician, LBJ, when he created The Great Society in the 1960s. A new, expanded role of the US federal government was created and politicians learned that they could manipulate government largesse to their own political gain. In 1971, the coin began sinking into the funnel and spinning faster when republocrat President R. Milhous Nixon, realizing that the gold-sponsored money supply of the US could never grow at a pace sufficient to support this ever-expanding government, removed the US from the "gold standard" and the US dollar has been backed by nothing but the full faith and credit of the US government ever since.
Republocrat Jimmy Carter presided over the initial wave of stagflation brought upon by Nixon's decision. The "coin" kept dropping and circling faster and faster during his four years in office. In 1980, suddenly there was hope. Conservative Ronald Wilson Reagan was elected and through a policy of tax-cutting and higher interest rates, the conservative Reagan defied the laws of physics as the coin actually moved up the funnel and slowed. However, having succumbed to old age and senility, even Reagan suffered a "death-bed conversion" to Republocratism and the coin began dropping again in 1986. Republocrat giant, G. H. Walker Bush took the reins of government in 1988 and, by 1992, our coin was spinning faster than ever and dropping at an alarming pace.
With the election of hick republocrat Billy Jeff Clinton in 1992, things began to get out of control. Soon, faced with a rapidly approaching end game, all republocrats in Congress and the Federal Reserve decided to go for broke. By massively inflating the US money supply, an illusion of prosperity took over, not just in the US but globally, too. This mirage held our collective imagination until the year 2000 when, suddenly, we began to realize that all was not well and that the coin was actually spinning faster and was much closer to the bottom than we'd thought.
"Good heavens. We can't have that!" exclaimed the new republocrat president Dubya Bush. With his partners in crime in Congress and the Federal Reserve, Little B reached into the funnel, grabbed the already speeding/dropping coin and actually gave it a push faster. By 2008, the coin was nearing the bottom of the funnel.
Just then, a dangerously under-qualified former street radical republocrat was elected president. President B'rock O'bottom is now presiding over the end of the game. At the end, the "coin" spins faster and faster until the bottom simply drops out. This is where we stand today. Are not events spinning faster and faster? Are your politicians and policymakers not making more rash and spurious decisions with each passing day? Are global leaders not positioning themselves for the next World Order?
The end of US hegemony is near and with it, the end of the US dollar as "world reserve currency". This catastrophe and all in entails could have been avoided with responsible leadership and an educated/involved populace. However, selfishly, we in the US decided it was best to pursue a plan where we foolishly thought our recklessness was beneficial. This attitude was best summarized by republocrat and Keynesian legend, John Connally, who, as the coin was dropped in 1973, told the world that "the dollar is our currency but it is your problem". Sadly, we allowed Mr. Connally to be prescient for almost 40 years but the world is about to turn the tables. Soon...very soon...the coin will finally reach the narrow end of the funnel and the bottom will simply drop out. What happens next will not be fun and games.