Here Comes Turd, Hat In Hand

346
Wed, Apr 18, 2012 - 10:27am

I must be a glutton for punishment.

In order to give all the Turdhaters some additional ammunition, I come to you today with another request for funding. The site needs improvements to keep it from crashing so often but the bills have stacked high while "revenue enhancement" plans have taken longer than expected to implement. Therefore, I need some help. More on that in a minute. First, the charts.

Longtime Turdites will recall how much of what I do is based upon "feel" and pattern recognition. When fighting within wholly-manipulated markets, these two traits allow you to survive. However, man does not exist on "feel" alone. Fundamentals such as simple supply/demand, the changes to Open Interest, the bullishness/bearishness of the CoT etc, all must be taken into consideration, as well. And currently, the fundos look great so why am I so uneasy?

Do you recall this chart from 3/28?

paper_3-28amcrude_1.jpg

The crude fundos were, and continue to be, very strong. Very few doubt that crude will continue higher long-term based upon dollar devaluation and geo-political risk. However, a clear "line in the sand" had been drawn at 104.50-105.00 and all sorts of sell stops had been placed below that line. Then, even though the global crude oil market is enormous and dwarfs the gold and silver markets, the stops got "gunned". Here's the chart from two days later:

paper_3-30amcrude2_0.jpg

How did this happen? Was it manipulation? In this case, no. The crude oil market is too large and diverse to be openly manipulated like gold and silver. What happened was that a delicate balance of buyers and sellers was broken when buyers temporarily stepped away. With more sellers than buyers left in the arena, down went price, through 104.50. The sell stops were then triggered and price fell very sharply to $102. Though it has since recovered and even traded back above $105 yesterday, that fact is small consolation to those who got their guts ripped out on 3/30.

OK, so what's the point, you ask? I fear that we are in the verge of a similar event in the metals, particularly silver.

As discussed here extensively, interest and activity on the Comex is waning. Post-MFG, the primary participants left are the Cartel monkeys and the HFT WOPRs. There are times when they balance each other out but, since the WOPRs are mainly programmed to follow technicals, and, since the current technicals aren't overly friendly, we end up with an unbalanced paper market where sellers outnumber buyers. The balance to this is the physical demand we continue to see in London and other venues. Simply put, paper price declines to the point where physical demand appears, which forces paper price back up. A sort of equilibrium and the primary reason why gold and silver have been mostly rangebound for the past month.

My concern is this: If you were one of these sovereign or big money buyers in London, why wouldn't you simply step back for a few days and see just how low the Cartels are willing to push? Seriously, why the heck wouldn't you? You might be content to "scale in" with your purchases for a while but if the stupid, arrogant Western bankers are willing to jam paper price lower for you, why not let them? And, like the crude market of late March, all it will take is a day or two of no big physical buying and paper price will tank. You, the big buyer, then can come back in a week later or so and buy a whole bunch of physical at a steeply discounted price.

Now, look at the charts below for silver. Do they not resemble the crude charts for late March? There's a clear point where buyers have continually emerged around $31 to $31.35. Even if I were a "resolute long", prudence would demand that I have at least a few stops right under $31 because if $31 were to fail, silver is headed to $30 or perhaps even a little lower.

paper_4-18amsilv4.jpgpaper_4-18amsilvd.jpg

As you know, silver and gold are about 95% correlated so let's just say the scenario described above plays out. The big money buyers in London take a few days off and gold falls down through $1635 and toward $1615. What do you think would happen to silver? It would be 30 and change in a heartbeat! In the end, I'm not saying that silver is going to collapse within the next hour. I'm simply warning you that, like crude in late March, this type of event is possible. On the bright side, like crude, silver will base and quickly recover. Like crude, the fundamentals are too strong to keep it down for long and any drop toward $30 in silver would be an excellent opportunity to BTFD.

paper_4-18amgold4.jpgpaper_4-18amgoldd.jpg

OK, back to the problem at hand with the site. I'm sure that most of you have noticed that the site has a tendency to lock up and crash during traffic spikes. I've had the Tech Team looking into it and they've concluded that it's primarily due to all the fancy, little fun stuff that I wanted built into it...the HatTips, the titles for each member like Muckman and Stomachlobber, even the liberty to post and store any video or picture you wish to post slows down the site. Most of the time, everything is fine but, when hundreds of folks try to refresh pages at once, the resulting traffic "bottleneck" is giving us fits. The good news is that this can be fixed. The bad news is that it will cost me a few bucks to do it.

So, I must ask you to consider helping out. The idea behind the subscription component of the site was to generate consistent monthly revenue. I had planned for the monthly fee to be under $5. Please ask yourself if this is reasonable. Do you get 17 cents per day worth of enjoyment, camraderie and knowledge from the site. If so, please consider enrolling for an ongoing donation. By clicking the "Feed The Turd" button to the right, you'll be directed to a PayPal screen where you can donate once or set yourself up for an ongoing, $5/month (or more) donation. Even simple, one-time donations can make a big difference. If the 25,000 or so individuals who visit this site daily all donated just a dollar, we'd be cooking. Anyway...as anyone who has donated in the past knows, each and every contribution is valued and important to me. I don't take this responsibility lightly and I don't take you for granted. However, the site is running on fumes financially so I feel I must make this request. Thank you for your consideration.

Hopefully, sometime soon, site revenues will increase. Once we are turning a profit, I still hope to schedule Turdapalooza, complete with open bar. Maybe that's just a silly dream but I hope not. The image in my head of 1000 big yellow hats "protesting" in front of 33 Liberty Street is too compelling to ignore.

Thank you all for your support, financial and otherwise. Keep the faith and keep stacking. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  346 Comments

opticsguy
Apr 19, 2012 - 10:04am

I'll bet Au closes under $1650

But clearly the buyers are stepping in under that.

Vaccines/autism. Big spike in autism rates when the MMR vaccine came out, then another one when they started giving a HEPATITIS B vaccine to NEWBORNS! WTF? I have only met two people that ever got Hep B, and both ate at taco stands in Tijuana (as did I). I think the US food standards are a bit better than that.

You liver creates more cholesterol than you ever get from your diet. Statins lower cholesterol by destroying your liver!

digin4gold
Apr 19, 2012 - 10:09am

war with russia

russia selling syrian gold

kingbee4
Apr 19, 2012 - 10:10am

I always find it interesting

I always find it interesting that the pro-vaccine crowd uses the argument that you need to vaccinate to protect others. This is just silly. Our schools use this ridiculous argument. If I don't vaccinate my kids, how does that do any harm to those that did get the vaccine? If the vaccine is effective, then those other kids are fine. It seem BS to me that I need to vaccinate to protect society. Let those that want it get it and leave the rest of us alone.

It surely is a disinformation mess.

linz47 TF
Apr 19, 2012 - 10:11am

Donation

I donate via WePay. Do you have an account there? Easier and less hassle than Paypal IMO. [I had a poor experience with Paypal when purchasing via a scammer on ebay. Not using them.] wepay.com ...talk to Stefan.

koan
Apr 19, 2012 - 10:21am

My 'good for you' rule

As far as eating goes: 'the further away from it's natural state it is, the worse for you it is'.

Like to think of it as a spectrum: eat as is (fruit, nuts, sashimi etc) to adding heat (slow roasted pig, stewed apples etc) all the way to processed-tastic (soda, reformed ham, frozen apple pies etc). Underlying trend along this spectrum is more stuff added (refined sugars is the worst imho, preservatives, etc). Hard to avoid any processing these days - irradiating fruit, homogenising milk etc.

Plus of course, always exceptions to the rule - soybeans!

boatman
Apr 19, 2012 - 10:27am

don't get me wrong

i have a appendicitis or get in a car wreck...or break a bone or something...i'm going to the hospital.

you just have to pick your way through the FDA/AMA disinformation bullsh*t.

medical mistakes the 6th or 8th[can't remember which] cause of death.

for instances the ADA still recommends mercury amalgum fillings........huh?

they broke a mercury thermometer in the local high school n they EVACUATED IT.....seriously

mercury in your mouth?.........whats up with that??????

and i've CURED 3 of my friends periodonal disease with oil of oregano...

their dentists were mistified.

its all about MONEY.........just look thru the fog.

its another FIAT problem.

then there is my four friends cured of HEPC with herbs and rife-barr treatments....they did it THEMSELVES.

mayo clinic blood test certified CURED.........

koan
Apr 19, 2012 - 10:36am

Too soon to get excited?

Nearly all the miners I'm looking at are outperforming their respective bourse - not by much but still feels like some time since I've seen it? Beginning to follow the underlying metal?

Orange
Apr 19, 2012 - 10:37am

Dr. G

If you have an interest I suggest you become a member of https://www.lef.org/

Their book, Disease Prevention and Treatment is about 1600 pages backed by all the science needed.

They also provide a monthly magazine. Their main theme is to follow Scientific Protocols that Integrate Mainstream and Alternative Medicine.

Also look into this: These people frequently became 100 years or more.

Probiotics was first conceptualized by the Russian Nobel Prize winner and father of modern immunology, Elie Metchnikoff, at the beginning of the 20th century. He believed that the fermenting bacteria in milk products consumed by Bulgarian peasants were responsible for their longevity and good health.

Unfortunately today, big pharma makes more money keeping people on medicine than curing them. If you are a medical doctor, you, I assume, have an interest to cure your patients. I think you will be impressed with the "Life Extensions" people, despite the fact that they also sell what they preach. Of course people can also buy it at their local vitamin store.


Apr 19, 2012 - 10:38am

Dr G - I know, that is why I traced the source article

The NaturalNews or whatever it was called used one article from Reuters, and they misrepresented it too. It clearly stated that the incidence of whooping cough was down since the introduction of the vaccine. One article. From Reuters.


Apr 19, 2012 - 10:44am

Xty

If I am not careful, I'll step out of my area of expertise and into the realm of unfounded opinions.

I'll try to catch up on the reading after my interview today--these college teaching interviews last all day long, for some reason I have not figured out.


Apr 19, 2012 - 10:49am

Dr Jerome - I think I have done that already!

I hope the interview goes well - just remember to be a Keynesian for one day - you might fit in better, unless you have found a rare and wonderful more libertarian educational environment.


Apr 19, 2012 - 10:51am

LAST!

Maybe there could be a rule - no posting FIRST, until you post LAST.

rpboxster SRSrocco
Apr 19, 2012 - 3:33pm

Wow, that's a crazy amount of fuel...

The math sounds about right. Even half that amount is insane. Always appreciate the insights into oil/mining production.

rassillon Moderator Jane
Apr 19, 2012 - 7:39pm

@Moderator Jane

Actually high traffic webhosting is cheap if you know what you are doing. Sorry if you have been informed otherwise.

I have seen numerous times where someone was being charged in the thousands of dollars nearly $10,000 per month where they could get comparable or better hosting for less than a grand. <----this is for multiple dedicated servers.

How your site is designed has a lot to do with if your site has to support all of the bandwidth needs.

Bandwidth and webhosting is one of the biggest rackets around when it comes to this websites in this size range. There is a reason you hear the same thing spewed "bandwidth is expensive"...BS, I know better. I been at this game too long.

Basically, if ad revenue isn't paying for the site, then something is wrong. Especially as much as I hear people say they are clicking ads.

If you believe you have any more control over things using a co-located server I have news for you. It is like precious metals, if you don't hold it you don't own it. Local back-ups are the only way to be sure some conspiracy event doesn't take place. Just sayin'

As far as AB goes, yeah, having his own servers really helped him out.....snark

-r

¤
Apr 19, 2012 - 7:42pm
bluechip
Apr 20, 2012 - 12:34am

Time to pay back the Turd !!!

Time to pay back the Turd !!!

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