Same Old, Same Old

Thu, Jul 28, 2011 - 10:00am

 First of all, I want to thank again all who participated in yesterday's "Turdathon". The threshold I hoped to reach has been met and work will begin as soon as possible on the site improvements we discussed.

The criminals are after silver hard today. As that Dave guy pointed out back on Tuesday, the EE likes to raid silver on the two days post gold option expiry. Here's a re-print:

"One quick technical point about the gold market. As of this morning there were about 18,900 open calls at 1600 that expire today on Comex gold futures. Historically, the big bank manipulators write those calls and then drive the market below the price point at which they've written calls in order to keep the premiums. It's not huge money but it's been easy money for them over the last 10 years. Today obviously those calls expired in the money by about $17, which means the holders of those calls will likely exercise their option and take delivery of futures contract. A few months ago this same situation occurred and the manipulators hammered the silver market the day after expiration, likely creating a large number of sellers out of the traders who had taken delivery of their profit-position silver futures. It was a very transparent manipulative move, but effective nonetheless. IF we don't see the manipulators successfully "run the stops" tomorrow or Wed, my bet is that we will likely see $1650 gold very quickly, as this will be a very bullish signal that the gold cartel is losing its ability to manipulate the market at will."

Add to this the fact that silver open interest is finally rising, particularly in the front-month September contract, and you've got all you need to send The Monkeys into action. As I type, gold is down $1, crude is up 0.25 and copper is up 160 points, yet silver is down 70 cents. Hmmmm.


Gold continues quite strong, however. It's quite clear now that The Cartel has drawn a capping line at 1625. Like all lines in the past nine years, this line will eventually fall. All it does it give us a level to root for. As long as gold stays above 1610, it's only a matter of time. IF 1610 fails (like on news of a debt "deal"), look for support near 1600 and again near 1585.


Sorry for the brief update but time is short this morning. More after the close or as conditions warrant. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Richard Booze SRV - ES339
Jul 28, 2011 - 12:49pm

SRV, Don't knock the Tea Party

It was great to see McCain step up and get real on the House TP kids... the deal will get done (next Tuesday?). These guys live in some kind of alternate universe and do not have a clue (seems there is a down side to placing rank amateurs who act on programmed ideological views with no critical analysis of the issue at hand... Plan B for the TP brain trust?).

Some of my best friends are members. If the U.S. government were all-Tea Party, rather than charlatan republicans and democrats, we wouldn't be in this economic fix.

McCain, a pure RINO politician with no loyalty to anything or anyone, particularly this country. What he says is meaningless.

Stick to PMs. Let's all buy and stack!

Jul 28, 2011 - 12:50pm

Eric, 2 great bacon heads

are better than one, so thanks for the nod/ sanity check :-)

Ok, so how 'bout IAG too? Fine company, great management, got da goods, stock hit for another .25 again today. With Au at 1615... Here's a look at one of their Calls, what do you think 'pard?

IAG 1/21/'12 $25 down .41 (32%) Bid .85/ Ask .95 

The contract is now 66% off its 52wkh. 52wkh for IAG itself is 23.38, currently sitting at 20.46

Jul 28, 2011 - 12:54pm


what if, aside from a lack of desire to buy more of our treasuries (and now reducing) people start realizing the other major countries do not have the buying capacity to soak up what we are printing.

Further, is there a limit to what the Fed can do? Practical or otherwise?

How much in assets do retirement plans have to buy treasuries, if dictated. (knowing if that happens we are way past cooked)

Adam Smith ewc58
Jul 28, 2011 - 12:56pm

@ewc58 Miner Calls

Just bought some Jan GG 60 C. Thanks. Hat tip to you.

Also Bought SVM 15 C and CDE 40C.

Hope these work out. I think they will.

Darth Smoker
Jul 28, 2011 - 12:59pm

Bot Spread

Just bot SLV Sept 40/45 bullish call spread

Mickey Adam Smith
Jul 28, 2011 - 1:01pm

gg calls

wow--for 1.10 for the Jan 60's vs 3.80 for the Jan 50's--for the extra bucks I think would rather have the 50's or even the itm 47's and sell a nearer term otm call

Jul 28, 2011 - 1:04pm

Executive Order Probably/Direct Fed. Intervention Possible/video

If an executive order isn't exercised then the following train of thought on the video from Judge Napolitano will happen. Think about what he's saying and there is no way you can convince yourself that what he outlines is impossible.

 We know this for a fact.....The Fed is not elected, nor a political party and is not bound by anyone...even the law.

Given the fact we are in extraordinary times and the Fed. has been intervening on a unprecedented level so far, ask yourself this..........why would they stop now?

Sit through the brief ad. It's worth it.

Jul 28, 2011 - 1:11pm

Lacker says more Fed stimulus would not work


Bidders offer $2.63 for each $1 in 7-yr debt sold

Treasury sells $29 bln in 7-year debt at 2.280%

ragandbone Dr G
Jul 28, 2011 - 1:12pm

Dr G You are right and I too

Dr G

You are right and I too think that its unlikely, however after what happened on 1st May... I'm certainly more wary of these market manipulations... Having said that I think it would need yet more complicity from the CME to aid another raid of the magnitude that occurred in May, either that or complete market meltdown driving all stocks and commodities lower. Neither are impossible. For the record though I'm going to buy more AGQ on this next leg down / latest raid happening now..

Hopefully this will be the last of this weeks takedowns... will keep some more dry powder just in case though...


tyberious Shill
Jul 28, 2011 - 1:12pm

I LOVE IT!!!!!!!

smileyGreat Gif

In GOLD, OIL, and DRUGS (GOD) We Trust!

Jul 28, 2011 - 1:22pm


GDX just busted $58...go team!!

LaMachinna Shill
Jul 28, 2011 - 1:23pm


heartlove that Shill! You brought such joy. Thank you!

Jul 28, 2011 - 1:29pm

Debt Ceiling and QE3

All the metal gurus and even the MSM are saying that a debt ceiling deal would be reached. BUT, (and as Pee Wee Herman use to say "everybody's got a big but") the only politically correct way to start QE3 is to have it as a means to lower the interest rate increases caused by a temporary debt default. What else can the elite use to justify QE3 before this fall? Maybe a war with Iran, maybe not.

This debt ceiling default provides a means for QE3 especially since they also need to raise $250 billion to repay the public pension funds that they borrowed from. As the Turd says, there are not enough buyers for U.S. debt. 

Jul 28, 2011 - 1:30pm

Same Sh$t from GS.....Hunt Bros tried this and they got

bent over....

nothing will happen to GS.

where is the SEC?

the only reason GS does this is to control the price. Freaking amazing.

Jul 28, 2011 - 1:34pm

Does Big Brother Have a Father?

A large part of me believes that all the Republocrats want the Prez. to invoke the 14th to relieve them of the very thing that is going on now. They are tired of the debate and don't want the responsibility or blame when the debt ceiling issue comes up now or in the future again.

They are not really offering anything solid in terms of the plans they have offered. And more importantly, they have not offered up any plan that seems able to get enough votes to pass.

Besides Ron Paul, does anyone else really go after the Fed. in any meaningful or public way?

I think it's because the vast majority of older Pol's. know where their bread is buttered and that it's not going to diminish but actually increase. We are now in that phase I believe where it's just the beginning of the Feds. presence on a day to day basis in our Govt.'s daily affairs.

Another part of me believes that at some point the Fed will just take contol of "the situation" we are in and have been in for the last 3 years or so. It will be a national security issue or just a blatant continuation and amplification of the heavy handed banker cartel going for the reigns to the whole pony show.

It does seem like we are headed towards that Orwellian type situation except the big brother might not be the Federal Govt. as much. The Father Fed. of Big Brother is the one to watch.

We're talking about a institution, that effectively up to now, has backstopped the entire planets banking system with tens of trillions of dollars.

I think we are witnessing the implementation of the final phase of the banking cartels FRN system. Whoever the hell devised it long ago was one smart (ok, evil) MF'r and I'm sure this has been planned for quite awhile once the ponzi FRN system got down to a certain point. Were at that point.

They have a plan and in this seemingly chaotic, indecisive situation there is a safety valve or lever they will pull. Whether that's the Prez. invoking the 14th or the Fed. take control is apples and oranges.

Jul 28, 2011 - 1:36pm

If the extra volume the other

If the extra volume the other day was to paint a blow 0ff top. You would expect them to bring out the debt deal now to keep PMs snowballing down before credit rating change sends things skyward.

Eric Original
Jul 28, 2011 - 1:46pm


I'm not expert on the intricacies of option pricing, so I wasn't really commenting on those particulars. More just chiming in that I think your timing is great right now, time to be a buyer. Whether buying miners outright, miner etf's, or calls on miners I think now is a good time, and you are putting out good info to folks about one way to play it.

On the particulars, again since I'm not expert in option pricing, I would have to go right to the charts for the stocks you are looking at. GG, AEM, IAG. If I had to pick one that looks to me like it is sitting smack dab on support as we speak, and would therefore be the best play whether in the stock or in the calls, I would go with GG. Bouncing hard off of support at 48 and I think you could get some calls here and be in the green on them right quick.

With GG and AEM also, I tend to like these situations where there's a kneejerk selloff on earnings, that tends to be overdone. The stock, and the calls, are on sale cheap today. I think it's a limited time offer.

Jul 28, 2011 - 1:51pm


U.S. sells 7-year notes at lowest yield since November

 I see abandoned $300k homes all over the place, but I've yet to see an abandoned pile of 200x 1 ounce gold eagles..

Consumer bankruptcies on the rise: Equifax - MarketWatch

Deleveraging is a bitch.

Jul 28, 2011 - 1:58pm

Right on Eric

I think your last point is particularly true in the AEM's case.

I heard CEO Sean Boyd interviewed on Bloomberg radio yesterday, he attributed their earnings miss mainly to a fire in the office of one of their main mines, and the production schedule disruption it had caused.

So while in reality it was only a temporary hiccup, of course the Street bailed and the shorts pounced on 'em...

Calls or shares, at 35% off its 52 wkh, AEM is indeed a great buy here.

Jul 28, 2011 - 2:05pm

Open letter to Blythe & Friends

Dear Blythe, Thank you for reading my post on Turd's website yesterday. I really wanted to add to my physical stash of both gold and silver yesterday but the prices just kept increasing. I complained that it was hard to know whether to wait for a dip or go ahead and buy at higher prices. Well, rather than pull the trigger yesterday I decided to be patient, rub a couple silver eagles between my fingers, and wait for a better time. Thank you for bringing that better time to me today! I saw your smackdown and raised you 5 gold eagles and 30 silver eagles! Cool, huh? Have you ever held a gold eagle in your hand, Blythe? Well have you? I know you think you are smarter than me, and maybe you are. But know this--I am not done. I am not out of dry powder. I WILL buy more when you play your little witchy games. In closing I have just one more thing to say. FU Blythe Masters. FU to you and all of your flying monkeys. Sincerely, winemaker

Jul 28, 2011 - 2:09pm

Damn You Shares!

The gold and silver stocks have performed horrifically the past week, especially with the very high gold and silver prices in mind. The market is nervous with everything going on right now and a lot of people start thinking about what happened to the gold and silver shares in fall of 2008. There are two major differences though that you should have in mind:

A: The hedge funds were heavily invested in the sector and went on a liquidation spree after Lehman. Today they are massively short and any liquidation of their positions would rocket the shares higher.
B: Gold and silver are not at $1000 and $20 this time around. Even a 30% wipe out would leave most companies very profitable.

Let's have a look at the HUI:

Basically it is and has been in a wide trading range for about 10 months. Despite rising precious metals prices the HUI has refused to do much at all. A consolidation this long will act like an enormous springboard, launching the stocks on a tremendous ride once they break out from the pattern. Timing is the tricky part of analysis, but I still think it will happen within months. If gold stays up, not even the hedge funds can hold back the shares much longer. In the near term I would like to see the HUI hold 520-530 and major support is found at 490-500. Immediate support is the 200 day MA at 545.

Eric Original
Jul 28, 2011 - 2:13pm

ewc58 re:AEM

Yup, AEM has earnings plus the dump on the RBY investment. Double dump today. Again, a limited time offer IMHO. Can't go wrong with AEM here either. Now I can't decide whether I like AEM or GG better right here.

Decisions, decisions!! Screw it, just buy 'em both! :D

Bro D
Jul 28, 2011 - 2:13pm

U.S Downgrade Inevitable

Possible Outcomes for the Current Debt Impasse in Congress

  1. Get your act together now, and we'll take you off credit watch.
  2. Raise the debt ceiling without a credible long-term plan and we'll downgrade you -- and fast. Within weeks. In early August.
  3. Let the U.S. default on its debt and you'll push the U.S., and the world, back into the Great Recession.

The stakes couldn't be higher. If Congress fails to act quickly to raise the debt ceiling and implement $4 trillion in budget savings over the next ten years, the ramifications will be dire - and not just for the U.S., but for all of our international partners, suppliers and customers around the world.

SRV - ES339
Jul 28, 2011 - 2:17pm

Richard Booze...

Typical TP approach... telling everyone else what to do!

Sorry, but I can't help you with choices in the company you keep... offer an opinion and I will listen and reflect... the TP had their 15 minutes... it's over. There are of course some reasonable ideas within the TP supporters, and they are a welcome addition to the conversation... unfortunately, the movement has been co-opted by big corporate money and the House members they put in place are an embarrassment.

BTW... it seems one of the more prominent TP Freshmen has some fiscal problems of his own... defaulted on his mortgage and his child support payments, and is still telling the world how to fix it's fiscal problems... pure TP!

Jul 28, 2011 - 2:18pm

Oh What a feeeling...

♫ When your dancing on the debt ceiling...♫

Come on - everybody now...Pure Lionel Richie style - circa 1980's.

All night long. Allll night...Alll nighhht. All night LonnnnGGGG printing PO(fkn)S fiatttt...

(im off tomorrow and for Civic Monday holiday:)=pumped

@Tesla - I am hanging tight definitely until after they sign a deal. I should've expanded further - i have been itchy&scraatchy to add to my horde since last But, i am glad that i at least waited until today - but am hanging tight until after the deal is signed:) So sometime next week, along with the advice of fellow Turdites.


Jul 28, 2011 - 2:22pm

The New Frontiers of Idiocy

Ladies and Gentlemen, my friend just sent me this link: in it, the writer discusses 3 possible solutions to the debt ceiling debacle(all BS)...but please take the time to read the first bit of the article. It just may be the most ludicrous thing you read all year. Allow me to paste below:

"Sovereign governments such as the United States can print new money. However, there's a statutory limit to the amount of paper currency that can be in circulation at any one time.

Ironically, there's no similar limit on the amount of coinage. A little-known statute gives the secretary of the Treasury the authority to issue platinum coins in any denomination. So some commentators have suggested that the Treasury create two $1 trillion coins, deposit them in its account in the Federal Reserve and write checks on the proceeds."

In the words of Jim Sinclair, "this is too stupid to be stupid."

Jul 28, 2011 - 2:22pm

Still have NOT touched 20-DMA

Certainly not the most brazen raid. Almost like EE is treading it carefully.

Jul 28, 2011 - 2:30pm

couple things...

Cleburne 61- interesting albeit stupid idea BUT it is kindof interesting that JP Morgan has been loading up on platinum hand over fist.

Also, has anyone read about the "Capps' law concerning gold"...essentially not allowing people to take out more than 6.5oz of gold out of the country and a bunch of other things affecting your 401K and safety deposit boxes. It is discussed at Daily Wealth...but I just read about it by googling and going to the second page of searches.

Violent Rhetoric
Jul 28, 2011 - 2:34pm

It's all a charade my friends.

It's all a charade my friends. Kabuki theatre. In the words of the philosophers and poets of Motley Crue (that's a hint for you DarkPurpleHaze) It's the same old, same old situa-a-a-a-a-a-tion.

House Speaker John Boehner has revised his budget plan in response to an unfavorable analysis by the CBO. The CBO has examined Boehner’s new plan and finds that it would cut spending by $917 billion over 10 years. Of the total, only $761 billion would be cuts to programs. The rest of the savings would be from reduced interest costs.

Actually, the revised Boehner plan doesn’t cut spending at all. The chart shows the discretionary spending caps in the new Boehner plan. Spending increases every year—from $1.043 trillion in 2012 to $1,234 trillion in 2021. (These figures exclude the costs of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan).

The “cuts” in the Boehner plan are only cuts from the CBO baseline, which is an assumed path of constantly rising spending. If Congress wanted to, it could require CBO to increase its “baseline” spending by, say, $5 trillion over the next decade. Then Boehner could claim that he was “cutting” spending by $5.9 trillion, even though his plan hadn’t changed. You can see that discretionary “cuts” against baselines don’t mean anything.

Blight Master
Jul 28, 2011 - 2:35pm

HSBC to cut 10,000 jobs.

HSBC to cut 10,000 jobs. Guess their PM scam isnt paying as well as it used to.

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