Site Improvements

Wed, Jul 27, 2011 - 10:27am

First, some business before we get to the charts.

This site is now about six weeks old and, like a six-week old, continues to grow. We've already made several, behind-the-scenes improvements in response to your feedback. Now it's time to make a few more.

As you know, this site is no longer about's about you. For some reason, people take an interest in what I have to say about the PMs so I continue to write the main blog. The site as a whole, however, is about and for you. The forums, the chatroom, the charts...all are there for your education and the assistance you can provide others. The site costs quite a bit of money to maintain and the servers required to keep it running smoothly ain't cheap, either. Therefore, we have advertisements and, soon, affiliate sponsors.

Also, prior to building the site, I asked for feedback as to what features you'd like to see included. Two of the most common responses that we were unable to incorporate immediately were private messaging between members and an "ignore user" feature. I'd like to implement these features now. It comes with a catch, however. I'd like you, the user, to share in the cost. If adding private messaging and/or ignore features would be useful to you, please help defray the cost by "feeding the turd". Every little bit helps and once I get about half of the cost covered, I'll proceed with the additions. I'll keep you posted on the results of this first-ever "turdathon".

OK, back to your regularly scheduled blog. The PMs are kickin booty this morning as the nonsense continues in DC. There is a general "risk-off" feeling today as everything else is down. This may keep the metals from soaring but it should not be enough to inspire a protracted raid, either. For now, I'd love to just simply get through this day with these gains intact. A gold close above 1625 would set up another leg higher, toward the 1640-45 area. Similarly, a silver close above $41 primes a run toward 42-42.50.


It's just a hunch but I can sure see all of this coming together at about the same time. By tomorrow, the POSX begins dropping again and the PMs rally further. By Thursday or Friday, at about the time gold nears 1645-50 and silver is pushing 42.50, the POSX may be making new lows near or below 73.30 on the September contract. Then the news will hit. The grand compromise will be reached. The country will be saved. Economic nirvana will prevail. All will be well. For about a day. Then, reality will sink in. From where will all this new debt come? Hmmm? The metals will reverse and we'll be back to business as usual.

So, for today, watch 1625 and 41 very closely. More later. TF

p.s. We need a couple more "moderators", too. Anyone willing to help? If so, please email me. Thanks!!!


After a valiant fight, the metals finally succumbed to the short-covering rally in the dollar. Gold dipped as low as 1608.90 (remember that initial support is around 1610) before recovering slightly. Silver fell in tandem but has maintained above $40. Holding support, both technical and psychological, is very important. I'd expect the dollar rally to soon end as the "real world" re-asserts itself overnight. This should lead to a rebound in the PMs overnight and into tomorrow. Again, WHEN some type of deal is announced from DC, EXPECT the PMs to drop sharply. I'll be buying this dip. Within 24 hours (or maybe considerably less), rational minds will realize that the U.S. is again allowing itself to go even deeper into debt. These rational minds will stop the selling and the PMs will reverse.

On more thing on today's trade. Last night, Harvey again posted a note from Dave in Denver. With the benefit of hindsight, this proves quite accurate. Definitely worth considering and a good thing to file away for the next option expiry cycle:

"One quick technical point about the gold market. As of this morning there were about 18,900 open calls at 1600 that expire today on Comex gold futures. Historically, the big bank manipulators write those calls and then drive the market below the price point at which they've written calls in order to keep the premiums. It's not huge money but it's been easy money for them over the last 10 years. Today obviously those calls expired in the money by about $17, which means the holders of those calls will likely exercise their option and take delivery of futures contract. A few months ago this same situation occurred and the manipulators hammered the silver market the day after expiration, likely creating a large number of sellers out of the traders who had taken delivery of their profit-position silver futures. It was a very transparent manipulative move, but effective nonetheless. IF we don't see the manipulators successfully "run the stops" tomorrow or Wed, my bet is that we will likely see $1650 gold very quickly, as this will be a very bullish signal that the gold cartel is losing its ability to manipulate the market at will."

Lastly, the Technical Team here at TFM wanted me to point out a couple of improvements we've already made, just in case they've gone unnoticed. Here is a c&p from them:

Based on your suggestions, we adjusted the Recent Comments page ( so you can use it as a "dashboard" for reviewing all comments across the site. You can sort by newest or oldest first. You can choose a start date for comments. You can also filter by username and title of the forum topic or blog post. To quickly access the latest comments, click on the Comments link in the navigation bar. 

The main RSS Feed has been moved to FeedBurner due to inconsistent updates with FeedCat. The new RSS feed URL is:

OK, that's it for now. The "Turdathon" is going quite well and I hope to have some news for you soon on the potential improvements. Have a great evening. Keep an eye on the headlines!! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 163


TheGoodDoctor · Jul 28, 2011 - 3:29am

@DPH Maybe he is at Bohemian

@DPH Maybe he is at Bohemian Grove? Anyone got the attendee list for this year?

¤ · Jul 28, 2011 - 3:35am

A bit of insomnia & " Hey, Where's Joe Biden?"

Hi Irene...EV has me stumped at 3:00 a.m. 

It's probably obvious but I'm a bit tired. I guess it depends what city and what country and how bad things actually get.

I would say generally that crime is going to increase as people get more desperate in the poorer levels of society and start to prey more on others. That almost sounds like a everyday situation that we face right now.

I can relate two stories that don't necessarily bare that out but are indicative of how PM's are starting to get some spotlight and it's kind of negative.

There have been two stories in the news here (where I live) lately that show how times are getting tougher and PM's are getting recognized as a result.

Two coin shops robbed within a month apart and both targeted twice again after only 24 hours had passed. Probably based on the news story bringing it to light, the two guys were robbed twice after the initial robbery.

This last one that happened... someone walked into the guys shop and tried to taser him point blank but they only managed one taser "barb" into him and it didn't work. So he pulled a gun and that was that. Someone else came back 15 hours later and tried again. 

The other guy was successfully robbed twice in almost 24 hours. Tied up and held up. Desperation and a recognition that gold and silver are becoming valuable has me thinking that anyone who might be wearing nice chains and bracelets might just be getting sized up by some people in society as time goes on and gold/silver become more talked about and valuable.

I'm seriously considering getting a shotgun soon at this point because you can almost see where this is going to go here in the U.S. I'm starting to read what I feel is more home invasion type cases in the news.

The American Revolution 2.0 is going to happen at some point and it's not going to be pretty IMO.

I'm in a second ring suburb outside a poor city. The suburbs around here (like elsewhere) are loaded with big expensive homes and the people are really wealthy (not me). When I can do so, I'm moving a little farther out with a little land and some room between neighbors.

The fray and the prey will be left in the cities for the most part is what I feel, but it will extend outwards towards where the wealth is soon enough, once those resources are picked over and they are tired of robbing their own neighborhoods and city. I'm not envisioning Mad Max or anything like that.

The thing that comes to mind is if people can riot at a Walmart during Christmas during good times and people can get trampled, shot, stabbed etc. over a sale item then what might society (certain segments) get like when the going actually gets tough really soon?

Hence the shotgun posture I'm talking about.


Video unavailable
¤ · Jul 28, 2011 - 3:44am

Hey Doc, this is for you

Thought you might enjoy this before I get back into my nest for the night

See you on the other side in the a.m.

Hunter Thompson The Crazy Never Die Part 1 RARE footage
TheGoodDoctor · Jul 28, 2011 - 3:51am

@DPH Thanks man. Over at

@DPH Thanks man.

Over at business insider they are sure having a fun time bashing the Tea Party. I guess the talking points are out for the blame game. I'd post a link but I am sure you can find the articles.

Henry Blodget and Gary Anderson. Or as I like to call them douchebags.

RuNuts Turdle GG · Jul 28, 2011 - 4:25am



Submitted by buzlightening

Quote: Publicly bentrod keeps all confused but behind our backs the dead head feds...
RuNuts Turdle GG · Jul 28, 2011 - 4:30am


· Jul 28, 2011 - 4:34am

CaptainOverkill wrote: Thanks

CaptainOverkill wrote:

Thanks for the advice, admin. Part of my problem is I often read the site when not logged in. Thus a lot of the time the new comments option simply wasn't available and I didn't notice it. Appreciate the clarification.

No worries, Captain. Yes need to be logged in to take advantage of the "new comments" links. Hope it helps.

daveyboy · Jul 28, 2011 - 6:39am

Sadly you just reacted in the

Sadly you just reacted in the same way as the staunch supporters of any other party. The tea party politicians are bitches, bachmann, palin and co are just there as cohorts of the ruling order. I didn't say tea party supporters did not give a shit about the constitution. My point waa different flavour does not mean they are not poisonous. As for being a socialist, do the math the banks ran it all under socialism too. I agree there should be pragmatism but compassion and morality too. As for me being from england, sure, this is the same plutocracy here too. I see where this is being steered though and it's into an horrific social re-ordering. The fact is though that under the evil of Bush most of this was ignored. I am sick of this hear no evil, see no evil when "your" party comes to power. By the way the notion of a command eonomy, a world government, this is repugnant to me. However if being compassionate, railing against looting and dishonesty makes m a socialist then, terrific, I will embrace this new definition.

Violent Rhetoric · Jul 28, 2011 - 7:25am


Yes Tree frog - the trend is our friend

aurum argentum · Jul 28, 2011 - 7:30am


I voted for him but I won't next time...I always vote democrat. I'd consider voting republican if they truly went back to their roots, weren't all corrupt and especially stopped their religious wedge issue crap. Their shoveling of their pseudo christianity down everyones throat and their social agendas keep me far away from ever considering voting for a repub..But I believe they do that to divide and conquer, as well as the fact that they are devoid of real policy ideas. Keep religion out of politics ... I would vote for Ron Paul......I think this country and thus the citizens are screwed....

Shill · Jul 28, 2011 - 7:41am

Ouch comes to mind

Yerp indices down, volatility spiking. CDS rates rising faster on financials/crossover than on Yerp sovereigns. Overall CDS rates still heading up though. Bank stocks are again slicing through the bottom of their trading ranges after a week of relief.

S&P CDS Eurozone Developed Nation Sovereign Index OTR Wtd Ave Index Sprd (SPCDKR50:IND) Index Performance - Bloomberg

Stock Screener - TA largeover europe financial short change

And with all the accounting trickery, we may yet see some echoes of 2008 coming back. Remember the Year of Writedowns? That is, before FAS157 was suspended and Citi didn't have to confess to $1.4T of sh!tpile assets every quarter.

Well, it could be coming back, this time (o the irony!), falling on banks from sh!tpile sovereign asshats.

FT Alphaville » Ready, set, impair those Greek bonds!

I mentioned this a couple of months back pre-Greek deal. A number of audit and risk committees are going to be very busy, and have lengthy, rich, and lively discussions with their external auditors over the next year.

Yes folks this is the calm before the storm, enjoy it while it lasts.

Violent Rhetoric · Jul 28, 2011 - 8:02am

Each time they announce they

Each time they announce they have "saved Greece/Euro/etc." I take a shot of JD and buy some ASEs. Looks like another round headed my way.

Might have to start doing the same each time Boehner announces a plan or Obama calls a presser to bitch and moan. Maybe both in the spirit of bi-partisanship.

¤ · Jul 28, 2011 - 8:18am

Get ready for Obama Drama & the 14th to be invoked

House Democratic Leaders To Obama: Use The 14th Amendment [UPDATED] 

WASHINGTON -- House Democratic leaders emerged from a Wednesday Caucus meeting with a message for President Barack Obama: Invoke the Constitution to resolve the debt standoff.

If Congress can't reach a deal on a long-term debt limit increase by August 2, Obama should "sign an executive order invoking the 14th Amendment," said Assistant Minority Leader James Cyburn (D-S.C.).

"I am convinced that whatever discussions about the legality of that can continue," Clyburn said. "But I believe that something like this will bring calm to the American people and will bring needed stability to our financial markets."

House Democratic Caucus Chairman John Larson (D-Conn.) acknowledged that Obama has previously expressed doubts about his legal authority to unilaterally raise the debt limit. But circumstances have changed, Larson said, and "we just want to let him know that his Caucus is prepared to stand behind him" if Congress fails to pass a long-term deal.

"We have to have a fail-safe mechanism," Larson said. "We believe that fail-safe mechanism is the 14th Amendment and the president of the United States."

Section 4 of the 14th Amendment states: “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payments of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.” Essentially, Democrats are arguing that since the "public debt" cannot be questioned, then the debt ceiling itself is unconstitutional.

Democratic Senators have been eying this option since late June. Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), an attorney, predicted at that time the the constitutional option may get "a pretty strong second look as a way of saying, 'Is there some way to save us from ourselves?'"

duckwomanloulou Shill · Jul 28, 2011 - 8:19am

Jeez my miners are haemorrhaging :(

It's red - total red & am going to have not visit my trading account for a few days in the hope that this will reverse. Days like these make the going tough angry

For all you insomniacs out there:

Wide awake here but wishing I was just having a nightmare!


¤ · Jul 28, 2011 - 8:36am
¤ · Jul 28, 2011 - 8:59am

Currency quotes as of 9:00 a.m.

Key Currencies

Symbol Bid Ask High Low Time(GMT)
USDJPY/quotes/zigman/4868099/sampled 77.8200 77.8400 78.0300 77.6400 12:58:04
USDCHF/quotes/zigman/4868123/sampled 0.8020 0.8022 0.8025 0.7991 12:58:17
GBPUSD/quotes/zigman/4867886/sampled 1.6326 1.6330 1.6363 1.6296 12:58:17
EURUSD/quotes/zigman/4867933/sampled 1.4276 1.4278 1.4400 1.4256 12:58:17
AUDUSD/quotes/zigman/4867876/sampled 1.1026 1.1030 1.1074 1.1014 12:58:15
USDCAD/quotes/zigman/4867882/sampled 0.9473 0.9478 0.9501 0.9460 12:58:17
EURCHF/quotes/zigman/4868091/sampled 1.1449 1.1454 1.1535 1.1424 12:58:09
EURJPY/quotes/zigman/4868097/sampled 111.1100 111.1200 112.0800 110.8400 12:58:17
NZDJPY/quotes/zigman/5237591/sampled 67.7890 67.8453 68.0644 67.6167 12:58:17
AUDCHF/quotes/zigman/4867892/sampled 0.8842 0.8848 0.8875 0.8824 12:58:17
AUDNZD/quotes/zigman/4867904/sampled 1.2652 1.2662 1.2687 1.2636 12:58:17
CADJPY/quotes/zigman/5237593/sampled 82.1059 82.1704 82.2595 81.8585 12:58:17
EUR= European Euro CHF= Swiss Franc NZD= New Zealand Dollar
USD= United States Dollar JPY= Japanese Yen GBP= United Kingdom Pound
AUD= Australian Dollar    
SilverTree · Jul 28, 2011 - 9:04am
MetalMike ¤ · Jul 28, 2011 - 9:06am

The only problem with the

The only problem with the chart DPH is that the components of the DOW have not remained static while the content of .999 gold has (unless you are the lucky holder of some gold plated tungsten). It does, however, highlight a general trend but that must be viewed in the context of global and US market/political conditions. Is the US pro business or pro government/bankers? In a business unfriendly environment we are currently in I expect we will push down to the all time low at some point. There will be another liquidity crisis that will just reinforce the current general risk-off attitude in the business market.

666 · Jul 28, 2011 - 9:07am

Click click click

The least I can do

crg · Jul 28, 2011 - 9:30am


Done. These pigs are lagging big time. Haven't followed the price of gold since June. What's the catalyst for these to move? Gold $2000? That's not gonna happen overnight so GDX and GDXJ could float back down to the mid-June levels.

¤ · Jul 28, 2011 - 9:38am

The Phases of Secret Gold Policy>link

The existence of gold market intervention is known widely among experts. However there is very little awareness that there are actually distinct phases of intervention. But these phases in particular are essential when considering the current state of the gold market.

Intervention aimed at countering rising gold prices has occurred for many years. One of the reasons is efforts by central banks to quell doubts about monetary stability. Despite such primary objectives – leading characters, motives and times do not form a coherent unit. In particular there are clearly distinguishable phases.......con't

debtless · Jul 28, 2011 - 9:52am



boil_in_the_bag_rice debtless · Jul 28, 2011 - 9:54am

.... and there we go

.... and there we go again!

How miserably predictable.

survivalwstyle · Jul 28, 2011 - 10:04am

am dip

$39.6o was that it???

and quick ~~ hope the rest of the west coast was up for that ;o)

Irene · Jul 28, 2011 - 10:20am



I also don't see how civil authorities will be able to keep any semblance of control when the SHTF. The people in charge are just clueless. Here's a real life example. I live by a park in NYC with two huge children's playgrounds. There is also a red-tailed hawk who "moved" into the park a few years back and has been the subject of 100s of newspaper articles, television news specials, and other forms of media attention. Well, TPTB decided that the hawk could die eating rats that had been fed rat poison so they just stopped using any rat poison. The outcome, easily foreseeable, is that the park is overrun by rats, parents holding onto children are terrified to even walk through the park, the rats are getting more and more emboldened and are happy to brazenly walk the park even during daylight hours. I bring this up as an everyday example of civil authority stupidity. These same people will be making decisions when things go south, as they surely will in a place like NYC. Not good. Not good.

P.S. EV=East Village, NYC

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Key Economic Events week of 12/17

12/17 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Manu.
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Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
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