No Raid Today?

Tue, Jul 26, 2011 - 2:56pm

Ole Pigatha Christie looks so awful right now that The Forces of Darkness have seemingly decided to stay away from the PMs today. Don't get too comfortable, though, because they are definitely lurking in the shadows.

Longtome traders know that the Forex markets are where the real action is. Individual equities, bonds and commodities can always be searched for clues but, if you really want to judge global opinion and trend, you look to the currency trade. With that in mind, I think I can now predict when the U.S. debt ceiling "crisis" will end. Take a look at this chart of the POSX:


We've seen this movie so many times before that we know the ending. The POSX is now just a scant 50 basis points above the low/bottom made in early May and, below there, all that remains is hoped-for support near the lows of early 2008. I fully expect a "deal" will be reached and a "grand compromise" will be accepted at about the same time the POSX reaches or moves just below 73.30. Watch that level very closely in the coming days. As it effects PMs, you've already seen a couple of steep selloffs due to rumors. News of an actual "deal" will almost certainly be met with a similar reaction. The Cartel will pounce and we'll all get another opportunity to buy the dip.

Frankly, I'm ready for all of this crap to be over with anyway. Let's get a deal done simply so that we can get the obligatory dollar rally and commodity selloff over with. With that behind us, the markets can begin to focus on:

1) From where will the next $2T in debt come? More QE, anyone?

2) The terrible U.S. economy and employment numbers. More QE, anyone?

3) Possible downgrade of U.S. credit rating. More QE, anyone?

These charts all look terrific. I'd really like to buy some crude but I'm having "liquidity issues", myself. The fact that I want to but can't virtually assures that crude is finally headed back through 100 very soon. Copper is very strong and portends higher PM prices in the coming weeks. Silver, once it gets through 41 should move quickly to 42-42.50. Gold just keeps heading higher.



So, anyway, here we sit. I'm still long my spreads in Dec gold and silver. If we can get the spike to 42 and 1650, I might take them off and hope to reposition. Until then, I'm just stuck watching and waiting for something to happen in DC.

More later if necessary. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 27, 2011 - 9:58am

Keep dat powda dry !!! Not just yet !!!

Jon Nadler's famous last words as he hands over his keys to his Moderator cubicle ! Monedas 2011 Impertinent Hoarders Have More Fun ! Working on my defense briefs for Tim and Anders !

Jul 27, 2011 - 10:00am

SLW Chart

Go check out the SLW chart and you'll see the usual games (theivery) that goes on right at the market open .

Does that look like a "normal" chart or natural action? They are stealing from us everyday by steering the PM's right before the market opens either in one or two big steps or a series of 4-5 smaller consistent one's.

Who the hell is watching to see in the SEC or CFTC that the markets are not being obviously manipulated?

Stevie Wonder?

Jul 27, 2011 - 10:06am


"Nobody ever lost a dollar by underestimating the taste of the American public."
— P.T. Barnum

BofA Donates Then Demolishes Houses to Cut Glut

Jul 27, 2011 - 10:12am

Mining Stocks Disaster

Looking at a 10 minute chart of the XAU index (auto-refreshed every few seconds) it's crystal clear that mining stocks are going to fail to take out 220.87 on their 6th attempt today... Nobody is even talking about it not even KWN. There clearly is a vicious algorithm out-there preventing any progress in the mining shares as a way to tame investor-sentiment. I believe, more and more, that once we have a short term top in gold (perhaps around 1650) the XAU will probably get sold out ferociously (after all the algos need to dispose of all those shorts that they've accumulated) probably all the way downto the bottom of its trading range around 187. I don't see a way out of this thing until we get some public companies going private. Who knows how long this will take?

Jul 27, 2011 - 10:12am

Silver Gold ratio is dropping

Over the last few days, the Silver to gold ratio fell below 40.

Now, it's looking like it may fall below 39.

That's significant. The last time the silver/gold ratio fell below 39, it was very short lived around 5/10/11 (someone may want to double check this).

The time before it was around March 31 (Futures ?)

murphy Shill
Jul 27, 2011 - 10:18am

@ Shill

How the EE manipulates the miners

1) Chief Investment Officers at US commercial firms project end of the year future prices of AG and Au at ridiculously low prices. Forcing the lousy analysts to be able to come up with inaccurate future estimates using low PM prices. Keeping investors away with low projections.

2) Market cap of the miners is a fraction of all other markets. Apple has a market cap of $325B compared to SLW of $14B. The whole HUI index is less than Apple. You think JPM and Goldman have the ability to keep prices down?

Possibilities to end the manipulation

1) SLV and GLD don't have the metal they say they have and there is a run on their stocks. Either the money goes to other miners or into bullion, in either case the other miners go up.

2) With the miners being such a small portion of the total investment dollars, when, not if there is a move into them by the big and small investment community, their market caps could double in a couple of months.

3) If the miners continue to be so undervalued big money will just come in and buy out the whole company and take them private.

just my .02 cents

Jul 27, 2011 - 10:18am

In case anyone is in Beantown area... "Joint federal military training exercises will take place within and around the Boston area between July 26th and August 5th. Military personnel will conduct training exercises to ensure the military's ability to operate in urban environments, prepare forces for upcoming overseas deployments, and meet mandatory training certification requirements. Helicopters will be used in some exercises. The Boston Police Department is working with military personnel to coordinate training sites that will minimize negative impacts on our Boston citizens and their daily routines. Safety precautions have been taken to prevent risk to the general public and the military personnel involved. With that, training site locations are not open to the public and will be guarded by uniformed personnel to provide additional safety." (via ZH, as usual) Is it just me, or is this a bit chilling? I for one am glad I happen to be out of the area, though in retrospect wish I'd brought a lot more metal with me...

crg Shill
Jul 27, 2011 - 10:19am


Problem is when? This is a joke!! No damn reason that miners and GDX and GDXJ dont follow gold except f'in manipulation...Damn!!! Off to work. God I'm pissed...

Jul 27, 2011 - 10:19am

Metal versus mining share ratio trade

is not for profit but for suppression!

Jul 27, 2011 - 10:19am

Keep Stacking

Or they just got smart and see the writing on the walls. Let the darn thing default. Watch the shorts disappear. Got Phys?


Fine handmade bullioln:

Jul 27, 2011 - 10:30am

Thanks Tesla

That Oil price drop was just what I need to get back in on the dip - I hope, of course.

Jul 27, 2011 - 10:41am

Golden Predator up 17% today

GPRXF put out a news release yesterday about drilling at their Harlan property. They had something up the sleeve, reports today indicate they've found a second major find.

These guys are a core holding of mine. Chairman and CEO Bill Sheriff is one of the thought leaders in the business and has staked some awesome claims in the Yukon. Not too late to get onboard, this trip has miles and miles to go. But give the algos some time to chop it back down before you buy :-)

Bay of Pigs
Jul 27, 2011 - 10:41am

RE: Miners

GOLD/XAU @ 7.47.

Maybe we can take out 8 or 9 on that? How about the old high of 11 during the 2008 meltdown? <heavy sarc>

Used to be when anything around 5 was a signal to buy them on weakness and then switch to metal when the miners were strong (2000-2008).

We haven't seen below 5 on that ratio for over three years now....and barely even below 6 and only for a very short time.

Hard to believe or understand, as it makes zero sense. This chart is useless today by the looks of it.

Tom L Dave
Jul 27, 2011 - 10:41am

Agreed on 220.87

@Dave: I watched this level this morning (thanks to your previous posts) and sure enough, as the XAU approached this level the selling started. I have an intraday high of 220.74 and the selling started the millisecond the price got above 220.50. 

It's retarded and now they have it below 217. 

Waching the 15 minute chart on AUY is like watching a train-wreck on Groundhog Day. They have that stock so completely bottled up, even after breaking above the capping line at $13.40 that it's sickening.

I hope you're wrong but fear you are right that this is going to end in an August Wash-out of the XAU and HUI before finally being allowed to lift off.


Jul 27, 2011 - 10:49am

Based on what I see

I think there's a good chance the attack is on it's way, if not already begun.

I just pulled up my big miner watchlist, 2/3rds are red. The metals are now off their highs. Often a miner stomp is the EE's signal to the paper shorts to pile in.

We may be watching this unfold now. Heads up.

Jul 27, 2011 - 10:51am

Raid starting?

Did the raid just start?

Somebody wake me up when it's over.


(one eye open)

Blight Master
Jul 27, 2011 - 10:52am

Looks like the MSM has done

Looks like the MSM has done well in funneling everyone into paper gold and diverting them from silver. Plenty of weak hands in now primed and ready to get shaken out. They need to do something big to scare the herd off if they're ever gonna get gold under control. I think a raid on gold would have a much better impact on both gold and silver then their usual silver takedown to control gold.

Eric Original
Jul 27, 2011 - 10:53am

Golden Predator

I believe this is the one that is moving Golden Predator today. Don't know why it's not on the company site yet.

Jul 27, 2011 - 10:54am

Is that the dip?

WTF kinda dip is that EE?

You call that a dip?


That was very disappointing!

I was looking for at least a sub 1610 AU and sub 40.20 AG!

WTF kinda dip is that Blythe?

Jul 27, 2011 - 11:00am

Thanks Eric

Their webmaster must've had a late night :-)

Jul 27, 2011 - 11:05am

Raid started

The raid, she has started.

Jul 27, 2011 - 11:06am

Some Golden Predator highlights

From the "About" section of the press release Eric posted, you can see why I like them so much. We're talking about a 10 bagger here...

"About Golden Predator Corp. Golden Predator Corp., a well-funded exploration and development company, has a mandate to be the leading gold property explorer and developer in Yukon, Canada.

Golden Predator has a vast Yukon property position with three advanced gold projects, six pipeline projects and exploration landholdings comprising over 4,000 km2. Drilling continues at the Company's flagship Brewery Creek project as well as at its Grew Creek and Clear Creek Projects.

In 2011, Golden Predator will work towards completing initial resource estimates for Grew Creek and Clear Creek and updating the existing resource estimate for Brewery Creek, in addition to conducting initial drilling at the recently acquired Harlan project."

Eric Original
Jul 27, 2011 - 11:10am

My core oils are getting

My core oils are getting creamed. Think I'll stop watching for a while.

Jul 27, 2011 - 11:12am

Wow... LOTS of Volume !!! (Ag)

FUBM Please!!!

Don't try and tell me the seller had ANY interest in protecting profit there. Dumped it all in two short bursts about 5 min apart... Maybe a third burst coming right now??

Jul 27, 2011 - 12:54pm

Interesting charts from this morning...

Thanks Turd for your website, content, and well informed members.

I am a first time poster. I have been reading your stuff since it was at the old website. Today I was motivated by a buy that I made based on a chart prediction. It paid off thanks to you and your charting tutelage. I hope this combo view of the event is readable by the group. 

Line 1 start of NY. In between Line 1 and Line 2, the sudden spike upward and then the scheduled fall range for the last 3 days. I bought on the dip today after seeing this trend. Line 3 shows that 2 days ago this took longer to occur. What is being televised at this time on Fox News? Answer, the reports on the budget meetings.


Clinkers will be king.

Eric Original
Jul 27, 2011 - 12:58pm


Nice first post, but you might want to put it on the newest current thread.

Jexy Eric Original
Jul 27, 2011 - 1:13pm

Corrected thread

Thanks Eric. It is done.

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