No Raid Today?

207
Tue, Jul 26, 2011 - 2:56pm

Ole Pigatha Christie looks so awful right now that The Forces of Darkness have seemingly decided to stay away from the PMs today. Don't get too comfortable, though, because they are definitely lurking in the shadows.

Longtome traders know that the Forex markets are where the real action is. Individual equities, bonds and commodities can always be searched for clues but, if you really want to judge global opinion and trend, you look to the currency trade. With that in mind, I think I can now predict when the U.S. debt ceiling "crisis" will end. Take a look at this chart of the POSX:

paper_7-26pmpig.jpg

We've seen this movie so many times before that we know the ending. The POSX is now just a scant 50 basis points above the low/bottom made in early May and, below there, all that remains is hoped-for support near the lows of early 2008. I fully expect a "deal" will be reached and a "grand compromise" will be accepted at about the same time the POSX reaches or moves just below 73.30. Watch that level very closely in the coming days. As it effects PMs, you've already seen a couple of steep selloffs due to rumors. News of an actual "deal" will almost certainly be met with a similar reaction. The Cartel will pounce and we'll all get another opportunity to buy the dip.

Frankly, I'm ready for all of this crap to be over with anyway. Let's get a deal done simply so that we can get the obligatory dollar rally and commodity selloff over with. With that behind us, the markets can begin to focus on:

1) From where will the next $2T in debt come? More QE, anyone?

2) The terrible U.S. economy and employment numbers. More QE, anyone?

3) Possible downgrade of U.S. credit rating. More QE, anyone?

These charts all look terrific. I'd really like to buy some crude but I'm having "liquidity issues", myself. The fact that I want to but can't virtually assures that crude is finally headed back through 100 very soon. Copper is very strong and portends higher PM prices in the coming weeks. Silver, once it gets through 41 should move quickly to 42-42.50. Gold just keeps heading higher.

paper_7-26pmgold.jpgpaper_7-26pmsilv.jpg

paper_7-26pmcop.jpgpaper_7-26pmcrude.jpg

So, anyway, here we sit. I'm still long my spreads in Dec gold and silver. If we can get the spike to 42 and 1650, I might take them off and hope to reposition. Until then, I'm just stuck watching and waiting for something to happen in DC.

More later if necessary. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  207 Comments

TheGoodDoctor
Jul 26, 2011 - 11:25pm

New bombshell Ted Butler

New bombshell Ted Butler article indirectly calls for large silver value.

https://www.investmentrarities.com/ted_butler_comentary07-25-11.shtml

Says silver inventory is 1/3 of the inventory of gold. Says there is 40 times more money in gold. Does anyone want to run those numbers?

Just seeing if anyone is awake. If so this number will astound you. smiley

I'd like for Ted one time to write an article like he is stark raving mad on a mountain telling everyone to buy silver - just once. He is way to mellow.

Shill
Jul 26, 2011 - 11:45pm

Obama Nominates Anti-gun Activist

https://gunowners.org/a07252011.htm

Retiring for the evening sleep well, for those that sleep :)

USGrant
Jul 26, 2011 - 11:56pm

Growth in Money Supply (TMS2)

Note the exponential growth in USD money supply using TMS2. The data is available from Mises.org and recent updates from M. Pollaro. The fitting line is an exponential (giving a straight line plotted in log space) which shows an average growth of 6.2% per year compounded since 1959. Before 1959 which is the first year the data is available, I approximated by its general relation to M1 and M2. In simple terms, if you are not making 6.2% a year compounded after taxes on an investment you are losing money. Also plotted on a log scale are the highs and lows of the yearly silver spot price. Note the recent high compares to the high in 1980 in nominal terms but the money supply was 1/8 of the current money supply so to be comparable the price would have to be about $320/oz in current dollars. Last years growth in TMS2 was about 10% and this year's so far is about 12% annualized.

The graph doesn't seem to post. I will have to work on that.

USGrant
Jul 26, 2011 - 11:57pm
murphy TheGoodDoctor
Jul 26, 2011 - 11:57pm

@ Doc

I totally agree. My hairs on the back of my neck raised up when I read that.

It's like porn- but in this case I know a sack of crap when I read it.

Night.

ginger
Jul 26, 2011 - 11:59pm

Irene, I find it hilarious

Irene, I find it hilarious that on the Walgreens website 14 people actually took the time to write reviews about the Celebrity ham. :D lol.

https://www.walgreens.com/store/c/celebrity-boneless-cook-ham-with-natural-juices/ID=prod2065446-product#BVRRWidgetID

This is an excerpt from my favorite ham review: "...It is from Denmark, and in Europe Denmark was rated with the highest quality of life. Furthermore, Denmark is to hams in Europe the way Virginia is to hams in America..." ...Seems our very own EricO really knows his hams. :D

treefrog
Jul 27, 2011 - 12:03am

senator bill nelson (d

senator bill nelson (d florida) sent me an email asking for my comments on the debt limit hoorah. here is my reply:

dear senator nelson.,

in my opinion raising the debt limit at all, for any reason is all too akin to letting a drug addict have "just one more hit... then i'll quit... i promise..." if all the options are on the table, how about the one that reads "raise the debt limit? hell no! lower it!" the only way to recovery for an addict is cut off the supply and go cold turkey. and yes, i'm talking about you, bill nelson. you and all the other debt addicted members of our political class. DID IT EVER OCCUR TO YOU THAT BORROWING MONEY THAT YOU KNOW, AND EVERYONE ELSE KNOWS WILL NEVER BE PAID BACK IS NO DIFFERENT FROM STEALING? shame on you, bill nelson. shame. xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxx, florida
The Doc
Jul 27, 2011 - 12:22am

The HKMEx Was Founded By Nathaniel ROTHSCHILD!

A look at the board of directors of the En+ Group who founded the HKMEx reveals that none other than NATHANIEL ROTHSCHILD founded the HKMEX!

The Doc
Jul 27, 2011 - 12:22am

The HKMEx Was Founded By Nathaniel ROTHSCHILD!

A look at the board of directors of the En+ Group who founded the HKMEx reveals that none other than NATHANIEL ROTHSCHILD founded the HKMEX!

dgoad treefrog
Jul 27, 2011 - 12:44am

senator bill nelson

Nelson is a waste of dna.

IIRC, congressman Nelson lost his seat and had to try to earn a living as a 1 man legal firm in Melbourne, FL and failed miserably. He ran for every office he could think of and lost every time. His political career was salvaged when he was appointed FL SoS to fill a vacancy, which he parlayed into name recognition victory of his current Senate seat.

This guy can't survive in the real world and yet has no problem telling everyone else how to live their lives.

TheGoodDoctor
Jul 27, 2011 - 1:07am

Effing good ham!

Effing good ham!

Kids In The Hall - Ham of Truth
donnojackshit
Jul 27, 2011 - 1:39am

Perth Mint keeping up with demand?

@TurdleGG Is the Perth Mint completed its gearing up in order to satisfy demand? I think it was you who a few months ago mentioned that they had no problem sourcing raw silver, but rather bottlenecks in production. July was supposed to be a commencement of increased manufacture? Apologies if it wasn't u.

Turdle GG
Jul 27, 2011 - 1:44am

@donno

Silver Bullion Bar Production – Update

Two out of four silver bar production lines are now up and running under our Refinery expansion project.

As a result, we now have plentiful supplies of 1 kilo silver bars, as well as 100oz silver bars.

We are currently focussed on shipping these two bars sizes for clients who placed ‘back orders’ during May and June. 

We are filling the oldest orders first (although some mixed size orders may still be held up).

If you have a back order for silver bars, you will receive an email advising the delivery details on the day we dispatch your order - with expected delivery the following day in capital cities in most cases.

https://www.perthmintbullion.com/Blog/Blog.aspx

Turdle GG
Jul 27, 2011 - 1:54am

Here we go

Breaking through $41. Gold is so strong they can't keep the lid on silver.

Update: well, looks like they can keep the lid on after all. Let's see if we can survive the next few days post options expiration

donnojackshit
Jul 27, 2011 - 1:56am

Thanks @TurdleGG

What are your thoughts about Australia ever outlawing silver ownership or nationalising silver mines? Jeff Nielsen (Gonzola Lira) amongst others seem to suggest this will happen very soon in the USA. Since our butt licking lap dog polititians emulate and follow USA mandates, wondering how they will justify this action? With gold they can crush ownership through hefty capital gains tax, but silver is vital for industry, so Govts will need to confiscate or nationalise.

Turdle GG donnojackshit
Jul 27, 2011 - 2:06am

@donno

Bad news (at least in relation to gold):

"Australian law already has a mechanism in place to require delivery of gold to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) - Part IV of the Banking Act 1959. There is no need for the Government of the day to have to rush new legislation through that may attract public comment or opposition. All that is required is the Governor General to proclaim that Part IV shall come into operation. The ease with which this can occur is a negative mark for Australia. A small consolation is that we have certainty as to the legal form this confiscation will take."

https://goldchat.blogspot.com/2008/11/australian-gold-confiscation.html

In relation to silver, my view is that it would be very easy for any politician to point to "industrial need" as a reason to outlaw private ownership of silver. Just like when gun ownership laws were overhauled here, I guess there'd be an amnesty period for us to hand in our silver and get paid a government-mandated price.

Turdle GG
Jul 27, 2011 - 2:08am

@donno

And extending the mining super profits tax from iron ore to gold would be easy for them to do, politically.

Turdle GG
Jul 27, 2011 - 2:13am

@donno - here is Part IV of the Banking Act

Part IV—Gold

40 Operation of Part

(1) This Part shall not be in operation except as provided by this section.

(2) Where the Governor‑General is satisfied that it is expedient so to do, for the protection of the currency or of the public credit of the Commonwealth, the Governor‑General may, by Proclamation, declare that this Part, or such of the provisions of this Part as are specified in the Proclamation, shall come into operation, and this Part, or the provisions so specified, shall thereupon come into operation.

(3) Where the Governor‑General is satisfied that it is no longer expedient, for the protection of the currency or of the public credit of the Commonwealth, that this Part, or any of the provisions of this Part, should remain in operation, the Governor‑General may, by Proclamation, declare that this Part, or such of the provisions of this Part as are specified in the Proclamation, shall cease to be in operation, and thereupon this Part, or the provisions so specified, shall cease to be in operation.

41 Transfer of gold out of Australia

(1) A person shall not, except with the consent in writing of the Reserve Bank, take or send any gold out of Australia.

(2) A person is guilty of an offence if:

(a) the person contravenes subsection (1); and

(c) there is no instrument in force under section 48 exempting the person from the application of this subsection.

Penalty: 200 penalty units.

Note 1: Chapter 2 of the Criminal Code sets out the general principles of criminal responsibility.

Note 2: If a body corporate is convicted of an offence against this subsection, subsection 4B(3) of the Crimes Act 1914allows a court to impose a fine of up to 5 times the penalty stated above.

(3) An offence against subsection (2) is an indictable offence.

42 Delivery of gold

(1) Subject to this Part, a person who has any gold in the person’s possession or under the person’s control, not being:

(a) gold coins the total value of the gold content of which does not exceed the prescribed amount; or

(b) gold lawfully in the possession of that person for the purpose of being worked or used by that person in connexion with the person’s profession or trade;

shall deliver the gold to the Reserve Bank, or as prescribed, within one month after the gold comes into the person’s possession or under the person’s control or, if the gold is in the person’s possession or under the person’s control on any date on which this Part comes into operation, within one month after that date.

(1A) A person is guilty of an offence if:

(a) the person fails to comply with subsection (1); and

(c) there is no instrument in force under section 48 exempting the person from the application of this subsection.

Penalty: 50 penalty units.

Note 1: Chapter 2 of the Criminal Code sets out the general principles of criminal responsibility.

Note 2: If a body corporate is convicted of an offence against this subsection, subsection 4B(3) of the Crimes Act 1914allows a court to impose a fine of up to 5 times the penalty stated above.

(2) Where a person who has gold lawfully in the person’s possession for the purpose of being worked or used by the person in connexion with the person’s profession or trade ceases to have that purpose in respect of that gold, the person shall deliver the gold to the Reserve Bank, or as prescribed, within one month after the person has ceased to have that purpose in respect of that gold.

(3) A person is guilty of an offence if:

(a) the person fails to comply with subsection (2); and

(c) there is no instrument in force under section 48 exempting the person from the application of this subsection.

Penalty: 50 penalty units.

Note 1: Chapter 2 of the Criminal Code sets out the general principles of criminal responsibility.

Note 2: If a body corporate is convicted of an offence against this subsection, subsection 4B(3) of the Crimes Act 1914allows a court to impose a fine of up to 5 times the penalty stated above.

43 Vesting of gold delivered

All gold delivered in pursuance of section 42 shall thereupon vest in the Reserve Bank absolutely, free from any mortgage, charge, lien, trust or other interest in or affecting the gold, and the Reserve Bank shall pay for the gold, to the person delivering the gold, on behalf of all persons having any interest in the gold, an amount determined in accordance with section 44 and the Reserve Bank shall not be under any liability to any other person claiming any interest in the gold.

44 Payment for gold

The amount to be paid for any gold delivered in pursuance of section 42 shall be an amount determined in accordance with such price as is fixed and published by the Reserve Bank or, at the option of the person delivering the gold, such amount as is determined in an action for compensation against the Reserve Bank.

45 Limitation of sale and purchase of gold

(1) Subject to this Part:

(a) a person shall not sell or otherwise dispose of gold to a person other than the Reserve Bank or a person authorized in writing by the Reserve Bank to purchase gold; and

(b) a person, other than the Reserve Bank or a person so authorized, shall not buy or otherwise obtain gold from any person.

(1A) A person is guilty of an offence if:

(a) the person fails to comply with subsection (1); and

(c) there is no instrument in force under section 48 exempting the person from the application of this subsection.

Penalty: 200 penalty units.

Note 1: Chapter 2 of the Criminal Code sets out the general principles of criminal responsibility.

Note 2: If a body corporate is convicted of an offence against this subsection, subsection 4B(3) of the Crimes Act 1914allows a court to impose a fine of up to 5 times the penalty stated above.

(1B) An offence against subsection (1A) is an indictable offence.

(2) A person may buy gold from the Reserve Bank or from a person authorized in writing by the Reserve Bank to sell gold, and the Reserve Bank or a person so authorized may sell gold to a person, for the purpose of its being worked or used by the purchaser in connexion with the person’s profession or trade.

(3) A person authorized by the Reserve Bank under this section shall comply with such directions relating to gold as are given to the person by the Reserve Bank.

(4) A person is guilty of an offence if:

(a) the person fails to comply with subsection (3); and

(c) there is no instrument in force under section 48 exempting the person from the application of this subsection.

Penalty: 200 penalty units.

Note 1: Chapter 2 of the Criminal Code sets out the general principles of criminal responsibility.

Note 2: If a body corporate is convicted of an offence against this subsection, subsection 4B(3) of the Crimes Act 1914allows a court to impose a fine of up to 5 times the penalty stated above.

(5) An offence against subsection (4) is an indictable offence.

46 Limitation on working of gold

(1) A person shall not work or use in manufacture any gold, not being gold lawfully in the person’s possession for the purpose of being worked or used by the person in connexion with the person’s profession or trade.

(2) A person is guilty of an offence if:

(a) the person fails to comply with subsection (1); and

(c) there is no instrument in force under section 48 exempting the person from the application of subsection (1).

Penalty: 200 penalty units.

Note 1: Chapter 2 of the Criminal Code sets out the general principles of criminal responsibility.

Note 2: If a body corporate is convicted of an offence against this subsection, subsection 4B(3) of the Crimes Act 1914allows a court to impose a fine of up to 5 times the penalty stated above.

(3) An offence against subsection (2) is an indictable offence.

47 Application of Part

(1) This Part does not apply to wrought gold, not being wrought gold worked or manufactured in contravention of this Part.

(2) In this section, wrought gold means gold and gold alloys which on view have apparently been worked or manufactured for professional or trade purposes and includes the waste products arising from the working or manufacturing of gold and gold alloys for professional or trade purposes.

48 Exemptions

The Reserve Bank may, by instrument in writing, and either wholly or to the extent specified in the instrument, exempt a person from the application of the whole or any of the provisions of this Part and, so long as the exemption continues, that person is exempt accordingly.

illyasviel
Jul 27, 2011 - 2:46am

Raid

I don't understand how they could fail to raid during these hours. The current volume is 1500 / 10 minutes...

donnojackshit Turdle GG
Jul 27, 2011 - 2:57am

WOW! Thanks @Turdle GG

This is all extremely revealing and very disturbing. How can we be truly free with such questionable property rights? Not much difference to Stalin's Russia or Mao's China! When the Govt wants your property they just take it 'for the greater good'. Well they have taken our guns away so unlike the USA, citizens have no vhance at providing a disencentive to the Govt thugs kicking your door down at 4am in the morning.

Rui
Jul 27, 2011 - 3:12am

Is EE unable to rig it or waiting for a trigger?

It could be the latter because we'd otherwise see lots of FUBMs on the chart if it's the former

Titus Andronicus
Jul 27, 2011 - 4:01am

Marc Faber interview posted on KWN

If any of you late night traders get lonely, here's the lastest KWN interview. (Just posted, I think):

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/7/26_Dr._...

I'm off to bed.

boil_in_the_bag_rice
Jul 27, 2011 - 4:24am

$41

Silver has been bouncing off $41 for the last hour.

Titus Andronicus
Jul 27, 2011 - 5:22am

Monkey's definitely flying around and breaking sh#t.

My chart is showing akmost 700 contracts in a minute on that last 15c drop in silver on the Globex. Sometimes my crappy charting service has glitched data, but if it's correct that a pretty strong smack. We'll see. I really need to sleep.

Fulgurite
Jul 27, 2011 - 6:20am

No Raid Today?

Is the EE saving their firepower for when an debt ceiling agreement is reached?

stoneeh
Jul 27, 2011 - 7:08am

Let's see where this goes.

Let's see where this goes. Trying to time the market of course will result in failure most of the time, but just being curious here. Bought just a little more at 40,5$ yesterday after not having touched my position (long via CFDs & FX) since 35$. Let's see.

What's very interesting is that this high open interest & concentrated short position for gold and low open interest & concentrated short position for silver simultaneously. So, speaking only about the futures market, gold is basically still overbought while silver is still oversold. This has not happened during the last 10 years.

- Markus

JoeKa stoneeh
Jul 27, 2011 - 7:16am

double post

deleted double post

JoeKa stoneeh
Jul 27, 2011 - 7:17am

GSR magnet

...and not forgetting the magnet on the GSR at 40

oh the confusion!

JoeKa ¤
Jul 27, 2011 - 7:29am

@DPH

tks for that video DPH. 

Arrr...The Joshua Tree. back then, when this stuff used to be called music and songs meant something.

not the lady gaga and bieber throwaway shit on the radio now.

Violent Rhetoric
Jul 27, 2011 - 7:29am

Nice to wake up to a chart @

Nice to wake up to a chart @ 1619.00 and 40.79

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