April Gold Option Expiration Day

Tue, Mar 27, 2012 - 10:58am

Just a brief update this morning as I have a very full schedule today. Additionally, The Wicked Witch has a few things that she'd like to share with you and I know she'd like to get that done today, too.

So let's get right to it. Today, of course, is March 27 which is the expiration day for the April12 gold options. This expiration occurs at the Comex close of 1:30 EDT. To understand the significance of this, you must think like The Cartel and the last thing they need right now are inspired longs taking delivery through the Comex. Therefore, The Cartel "checks the books" and determines the price at which the minimum number of option holders will stand "in the money" and, potentially, convert to an April futures contract and take delivery. Sometimes (most of the time), The Cartel is able to manage this effort quite successfully. For this month, I defer to our new friend, "Winston" as he's been right on the money (no pun intended) this past week.

First, price was gunned down last week. Winston told me that the primary reason for this was to squeeze the folks who had sold April puts, a few weeks back, thinking that this was easy money. As price dropped, these option "shorts" were forced to hedge by shorting an actual futures contract. Once these "weak hands" were sucked in and short futures, gold reversed last Thursday and is up nearly $60 since. Mission accomplished for phase #1. Phase #2 is intended to minimize the potential damage described in the paragraph above. In this regard, we also heard last week that The Cartel would attempt to pin gold below $1700 at the close today. So far, mission #2 is looking good, also.

As you can see on the charts below, gold is showing fine strength here and not giving back any of the gains from yesterday. However, you can also see that The Cartel has instituted, at least for today, a hard cap just below $1700. Can this change? Of course it can. There are always headline events that can sway momentum intraday. For now, however, let's just be content today to consolidate yesterday's gains and get ready to fight the remainder of this week. Once gold option expiry is behind us, I expect gold to be cleared to move through $1700 and it will likely drag silver along with it, through $33.


Again, The Wicked Witch has a few things on her mind so please check back later today for a possible visit from The Wicked One and her trusted sidekick, Ruprecht. In the meantime, please click the link below and read the latest missive from Bill Gross. Though I think he's a weasly, little political insider who uses his connections for the profit of his company, this report is helpful simply because he's a weasly, little political insider who uses his connections for the profit of his company. The guy is chairman of the "Good Old Boy Club". If anyone has the ear of The Bernank, it's Billy. Therefore, heed what he says. It cuts through some of the SPIN and the MOPE.


Have a great day! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


abreik Gold Five · Mar 27, 2012 - 12:33pm

Online Carts

Provident, like other online PM dealers do not automatically empty your cart. The price of items in the cart continues to update until you make the purchase and lock in. I think APMEX gives you like 5 or 10 minutes of a locked in price before actually making the purchase but prices in their cart will start updating too if you don't make the purchase within that time.

I've had items in my cart at Provident for weeks just waiting for a price that I'm comfortable with (so that I don't have to spend time filling my cart once my magic buy price is met). If you refresh the cart page, you'll see the prices update every minute or so.

If you aren't comfortable having the prices change after adding them to your cart, make purchases on the weekend (or the one hour each day) when there aren't any markets open.

BagOfGold Nick Elway · Mar 27, 2012 - 12:40pm

Nick Elway...

Any water filtration system requiring me to buy additional filters...would be absolutely useless for me...as it wouldn't serve my long term needs...& may not be available anyways!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Patrancus · Mar 27, 2012 - 12:45pm

Mercury Dimes

Mercury Dimes won't run bartertown, though they will be widely circulated throughout its underground economies. 

who run barter town
Dr G · Mar 27, 2012 - 12:46pm

Agreed with the above posters

Agreed with the above posters regarding Provident, who I really like purchasing from. The items will sit in your cart for a LONG amount of time (months even?), but when you go to checkout the prices will update to what the current prices are.

I believe the price when you put them in the cart doesn't change for 10 minutes or so, though, so you can add some, shop some more, and still purchase at your initial quoted prices.

Dr G · Mar 27, 2012 - 12:50pm

About that lull...I think

About that lull...I think they hit us once again here shortly into close. I mean, they can, so why wouldn't they?

Dr G · Mar 27, 2012 - 12:58pm

Turns out that Trayvon

Turns out that Trayvon fashioned himself a gangster. Doesn't mean he was, but as I said in a previous thread, avoiding the appearance of evil is a good habit to acquire. Don't pretend to be something if you can't stomach the consequences that go hand-in-hand with that action.

His twitter handle was "NO_LIMIT_NIGGA". His tweets match his gold toothed smile and certainly don't match the portrait of him that the MSM is painting. https://dailycaller.com/2012/03/26/the-daily-caller-obtains-trayvon-mart...

He was also suspended from school 3 times for drugs, and was also found with a bag full of women's jewelry. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2120504/Trayvon-Martin-case-He-...

Sounds like an upstanding citizen in the making.

Oh, and Zimmerman, who shot Trayvon, is a registered Democrat. That certainly throws a wrench in the arguments that certain circles are making.

This incident is rapidly becoming one that is defining this election (at least for the moment). It is certainly taking the spotlight off rising fuel and commodity prices. Typical slight of hand movement from TPTB.

Marblesonac · Mar 27, 2012 - 12:59pm


Check local laws, any still with a pot larger than 1 gallon is illegal in the USA.

Now if you wanted to keep the plumbing parts (distributed not near any other part) for a cappuccino machine wink

that might be OK.

FriedEggs · Mar 27, 2012 - 1:02pm

Trayvon tradgey

helps Obama's campaign.



· Mar 27, 2012 - 1:05pm

Mercury dimes, bartering and counterfeiters

I am tending to favor the Mercury dimes and Franklin halves because they will be highly recognizable and trusted in a bartering economy. No need to check dates. Very little chance of a counterfeit coin.

Standing liberty quarters have too much wear and would need to be weighed. I have a roll of 40 that is a full 1/2 inch shorter than a roll of 40 washington quarters. Nobody cares now, but later, when silver is at its true price? I think we will be weighing the smoothies.

Now that we are seeing tungsten filled gold in the personal sized bar, I am not sure I fully trust the coins that may appear as metals spike up, especially presuming that gold will be hard to find. Counterfeiters with money can do amazing things with metals... Fake Morgans are already a problem. Anybody find one yet?

Ferd Torgerson · Mar 27, 2012 - 1:11pm

Won’t There Always be Smackdowns?

I wanted to say thanks to Ned Naylor-Leland for the interview on the new gold exchange of three weeks ago and to Turd for making it happen. I’m always encouraged that new developments might finally allow investors in precious metals to have an even chance in the market and admire Ned’s and Andy Maguire’s efforts in that direction. Wanted to think on the matter for a while before posting. Hope I’m wrong but I’m not all that convinced that we won’t be in the same position this time next year.

For starters, let’s look at how easily the kibosh was put on PAGE. A member entity supposedly increased its holdings from 10% to 25%, enabling it to increase its board representation and gum up the works in a dispute over the trading platform. Wonder how much that little coup would have cost the “bad guys”? A few million, in relative terms, would have been latte money compared to the stakes involved. 

Now, we have a new effort under way. Sounds like it’s “game over” for the guys and gals in the cartel:

“Well, Ruprecht, I see no way that we can stop them this time. This secret new Chinese exchange is going to spell the end for us”.

 “But, Master, couldn’t we use some parabolic mikes and wiretaps to listen in on what they’re planning? How about hiring one of those Anonymous chappies to hack into their computers so we can read their emails? Hell, let’s just buy off a director or two.”

“Ruprecht!! We could do any one or all of those things but you know that would be wrong!”

“I see what you mean, Master. We just fold up our tents from here and go home. A cashier position at Walgreen’s looks mighty tempting all of a sudden. And, I’ll get an employee discount on canned hams.”

“Yes, Ruprecht, looks like we’re both going to have to find honest work.”

“But, what do we tell the monkeys, Master?”

“I suppose, Ruprecht, that with all the new McMansions that will be built in Turdtown owing to true price discovery, the monkeys can all buy trimmers and leaf blowers and find work as yardmen.”

“Not exactly the type of ‘hedging’ they’ve become accustomed to, Master, but it will be a living.”

I just don’t see the above type of scenario playing out. Whether it’s on the Comex, Globex, the new Chinese exchange or the TURDEX (that would be the Trans-United Receipt Depository EXchange should our leader ever wish to establish such a mechanism), the cartel will find a means to smash down prices on occasion. Whether gold and silver are at past or present levels or priced at ten times the current prices in the future, the lure of easy money through their usual shenanigans will be too great to pass up.

Which brings me to the reason for this post. I’m still frosted at myself for, once again, failing to do with my miners what I should have done almost a month ago. I do hold some metals but don’t trade futures or options. I buy mining shares without using leverage. On a couple of past occasions, I’ve been able to sell off my shares at a good price and buy back on the dips. On too many occasions, however, I’ve sat still and watched the miners hit a top and then plunge by a dollar or two per share, leaving thousands on the table. Taking Yamana (AUY) as an example, on February 29 AUY was sitting at its 52 week high. The smart, conservative Ferd on my left shoulder angel was saying, “Sell. You can buy back in a week or so for much less as you have in the past”. Dumb, greedy Ferd on my right shoulder devil was yelling, “No, dammit!! Looks like this time is the breakout in metals you’ve been hoping for. Sell now and you may never be able to buy Yamana again for under $20.” So, I sat still and have watched AUY and my other miners drop and roil around at lower levels since then. 

No doubt they’ll get back to or exceed their former highs and then plunge as metals get smacked down again. And, Ferd will not make the same mistake again. I won’t be so trusting as to believe another smackdown isn’t on the way. Whether you trade options and futures, stack metals or hold miners, I hope all of you make money. A dollar in your pockets is one less dollar in the pockets of the cartel. 

For my part, I’m not going to be a greedy individual. I’ll be happy to one day sell AUY at $100 and buy back at $80 two weeks later and be satisfied with a $100,000 gain on 5000 shares. yesyes

As I haven't said so in a while, let me just close by saying, "Thanks, Turd, for all that you do". Waiting for the new setup so I can subscribe.

Patrancus · Mar 27, 2012 - 1:20pm

Mercury Dimes

Mercury Dimes stack very well and have exceptional portability for a short notice bug out, I like having plenty of them in hand. 

junoroland · Mar 27, 2012 - 1:34pm

copy and paste teleprompter

This clip has been played across Europe today.

Obama tells every country "that they punch above their weight" and are closest allies. 

Video unavailable
Patrancus · Mar 27, 2012 - 1:42pm

As long as the paper

As long as the paper is perceived to have value, smack-downs are here to stay. The answer lies in wholesale tax revolt, it is the only way to send the message to the government military complex and a freeloading populice that enough is enough, we are not going to take this sh-t anymore. Guys like John Corzine should be in prison, though he continues to operate outside the vale of the legal system, the only way this corrupted system can be restored is for the economy to collapse completely upon itself. Wars to kingdom come for control of oil, drugs, territories, currently 5 million guns per month are being procured by the people of America, Why? not too hard to figure this out, we have tyrants operating in government at all levels of government, who believe they are better than those who just want to be left alone to live their lives as free men and woman. Life is dangerous enough without the governments adding to the mix, the solution is simple, every generation must discover it's own democracy. 

achmachat · Mar 27, 2012 - 1:49pm


@ copy and paste teleprompter

Somewhere on these threads I read that somebody was asking why there's so much hate for Obama on these Forums.

As an outsider I can guess the reason: A deep feeling of betrayal! yep... that should be it. Listen to all the things Obama was telling you guys to be voted into the White House. And then he went ahead and did either the exact opposite of just ignored it.

If I had been suckered into voting for Obama after all those wonderful campaign speeches, I'd be angry as well.

lone · Mar 27, 2012 - 1:54pm

word games

bb-good morning mr pres. good morning ben we have a problem sir we need a new law that says no one can use the words death/taxes anymore sir that will be tough to do bb not so sir.our directors have been studying this for months and have come up with the perfect solution sir. well give it to me bb. yes sir,instead of death/taxes sir we will call it revenue enhancement/negative rehabilitation. bb once again that is brilliant.i think that is better even than QE thank you mr president keep up the good work bb

The8thHabit · Mar 27, 2012 - 2:17pm

On Gold, Value and Zombies

Interesting article: https://seekingalpha.com/article/460251-death-of-the-gold-bull-market

Lots to learn. Main points I have "educated" myself from it are:

  • There are three reasons to buy gold: fear, greed and speculation.
  • Gold has no real value as a currency. Note: this concept is actually not new to me since I've figured out myself that fiat has value as a currency but gold has value as money. However, I don't think the author would agree with me and he probably meant that gold has no value as money.
  • Gold unlike the economy is in a long-term secular bull market and temporary overbought, therefore, it is a great time to invest in BUT we must be savvy enough to invest in highly liquid forms of gold like GLD and not a physical gold which "... will be nearly impossible to liquidate when the panic sets in. Of course if zombies do show up, none of this really matters".

Just please take a minute, re-read the quotation above and think!

It is time to invest in gold but not a physical gold because when the panic sets in it will be impossible to sell unless zombies show up.


Purchaser · Mar 27, 2012 - 2:27pm

@junoroland - What a puppet Obama really is or...

is it just manipulation of recordings? No, fantasy left...

Be Prepared · Mar 27, 2012 - 2:27pm

GLD - Today's Paper is Tomorrow's Trash

I can just see everyone rushing to buy GLD when a panic sets in because everyone will be looking to have fractional nothingness that they can't redeem for anything. GLD may be a trader's play today... but it certainly won't be anything of "value" for the future.

I agree... wow!

Dr G · Mar 27, 2012 - 2:32pm

Ugh. This is the state of our

Ugh. This is the state of our sorry society. Chicago--80 year old man and his wife are asleep at 6:30 in the morning when they hear an intruder in their home. The 80-year old man shoots at the 19 year old intruder and hits him the leg. The 19 year old was trying to steal alcohol from the 80-year old, who has run a neighborhood bar for a long time.

19 year old is arrested, but so is the 80 year old man. Link: https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-elderly-man-shoot...

But that isn't even the part that gets me red in the face. The neighbors are saying the charges should be dropped. Great, I fully agree. You have to be able to protect yourself in your own home. Thankfully I live in a state where I can protect myself anywhere and at any time, but that's another story.

What gets me angry is that the story says the state should have found a way to avoid charging the elderly man, and that they should simply just "take his gun". Really? Why should they take his gun? Is that a punishment? Why should the gun be taken at all?

This is typical MSM/liberal BS. In my opinion they should give him ANOTHER gun so his wife can also defend their property in a civilized manner.

Purchaser Ferd Torgerson · Mar 27, 2012 - 2:38pm

@ Feed Torgerson - Great Post

I could not have expressed my personal dilemma in a better way myself. Hang in there and keep stacking

Bobbejaan Doctor J · Mar 27, 2012 - 2:39pm

Quote:Fake Morgans are

Fake Morgans are already a problem. Anybody find one yet?

Can't speak about USA coinage as I'm in the UK .... but I have noticed over the last couple of months that there seems to be an increasing number of what appear to me to be Fake UK Crown-coins (circa 1880-1900) being offered via eBay-UK.

These should be Sterling (92.5%) Silver and weighing 28.276g, and MOST of the genuine currently existing ones tend to be fairly worn/smoothish as (unlike many US coins) they were well-used in day-to-day life & tended to have a fairly hard life .... whereas many of the ones I am now seeing seem "in way too good a condition" & overly-detailed compared to those I have bought over past decades. .... I couldn't be sure unless I actually bought a few & tested them, but I have a pretty good gut-instinct for UK Junk-Silver coins, and every time I've considered buying one recently, my gut has Gibbs-Slapped me into not buying, so nowadays I prefer to acquire them ONLY when they come mixed-in with my regular "JS Pile/Hoard" purchases.


Just something readers might care to bear in mind when looking at UK Crowns for purchase ... and if they are around here in the UK, no doubt they will start (or perhaps already are) appearing in the USA as well.

· Mar 27, 2012 - 2:55pm

Trayvon incident, self-defense, and guns

If this subject gets too heated, let's move it to the forums, OK? But hopefully no-one will be offended by my following comments:

I think the whole Zimmerman/Trayvon issue will backfire on the Democrats if they try to use it for the election. Already, as more facts are coming out, the initial media hooplah and subsequent hysteria over Zimmerman is proving to be based on misinformation:

  • Zimmerman was first made out to be a white guy, then he was made into a "white Hispanic," but still characterized as a vigilante (and possibly a gun-totin' hick of sorts), when it turns out he is a registered Democrat who considers himself to be Latino.
  • Zimmerman has black friends and had mentored and helped a single black woman and raised funds for her black church.
  • Travyon, who was initially portrayed as this angelic child with an old picture being posted by the media, was actually a druggie, into "gangsta" culture, suspended from school numerous times, and possibly made extra money selling drugs.
  • Trayvon was supposedly was beating up Zimmerman when Zimmerman shot him.

Now...are people saying Zimmerman's gun should be taken from him? No, they are calling for his head. If Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson continue with their inflammatory comments, and start inciting riots over this issue, this isn't going to help Obama in November. It will hurt him. I'm betting a lot of moderate people are going to react against this sort of thing, possibly in a very strong way, at the polls.

In regards to the story of the old man who is being asked to have his gun taken from him, you might find this blog post interesting:

Progressives, it’s time to go buy your guns.


The guy is SUPER naive and totally misinformed about preppers and Tea Party types. He actually thinks people are buying guns so they can go out and hunt down and kill socialists. Ridiculous. But interesting nonetheless.

junoroland · Mar 27, 2012 - 2:59pm

@purchaser on prompter

as a national of ireland it just gauled me to see my loser prime minister enda kenny lap up the usual lines, as it seems a lot of other leaders did. my favorite one was the fawning gilliard from Oz getting ready to swoon for the kindly words. that piece posted by me might have some nice editing but our national news show on RTE 1 had their version aswell.

Im not after obama if we had better communications like youtube and the net for longer we would have seen kennedy, regan, bush etc all touting the same foreign relations clap trap. i feel the same way about blair, cameron etc in fact cut and paste that to every country's leader thats promoting the current economic global program.

arcticfox · Mar 27, 2012 - 3:08pm

It finally happened

Bill Gross is on CNBC right now saying that it is a good time right now to buy gold..

I Run Bartertown · Mar 27, 2012 - 3:09pm

They know nothing

"He actually thinks people are buying guns so they can go out and hunt down and kill socialists"

Assclowns. Guns are for defense and fun.

Everybody knows that you hunt socialists with dogs.

(Which, of course, answers the age-old question of why a dog would lick his own ass...it's to get rid of the taste of commie...)

dziprick · Mar 27, 2012 - 3:14pm

thought I would share this from the 5 Minute Forcast,

Then there’s the peculiar action on Friday in SLV, the big silver ETF — as revealed by the real-time data feed company Nanex.

At 1:22 p.m. SLV was forced down by rapid-fire machine-generated quotes — more than 75,000 per second. “Before you start to think that this was merely a bunch of people hitting the sell button all at once,” writes Cris Sheridan at Financial Sense, “consider this: They were all launched within the space of 25 milliseconds — 10 times faster than you and I can blink!”

Here’s a chart of the action, from 1:14 through 1:31 p.m. The volume spike at 1:22:33 is highlighted and enlarged...

 And in less than 1/100th of a second, the price slipped from $31.18 to $30.91. “While that may not seem like much,” writes Chuck Gibson of the money-management firm Financial Perspectives, “if you were short tens of millions of shares (there were over 200 million shares that traded hands this day) or, in fact, wanted to buy SLV, either way, a drop in price of 27 cents could make you millions of dollars.”

If you were on the inside, that is. Outrages abound...Tjho

acer rubrum ¤ · Mar 27, 2012 - 3:26pm

@IndigoStar7 fresh water

My Dad told me when I was young, that water would one day be worth its weight in gold. How appropriate!

There is not enough profit in building desalinization plants... yet. Supply of water down, profit from water up. TPTB are very shrewd and don't give a damn if some go thirsty.

PS I'm a member of the "First Firsters" and proud of it! Detractors, get your own first!

· Mar 27, 2012 - 3:34pm

Classic pic!

Oh, isn't this pic from ZH just fabulous!

I wonder what those two just finished eating!

Maybe PM bugs?

Dr G · Mar 27, 2012 - 3:43pm

What in the Globex selling?

What in the Globex selling? Seriously, it just gets old. Gold clipped for another $8 on this leg down. On what news? That's right, the world is coming to an end so sell your gold.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales