Saturday Gold and Silver Summary

228
107
Sat, Mar 24, 2012 - 12:31pm

I've found a couple of things for your weekend, so I thought it best to start this new thread. Mainly, I had to make sure that everyone saw the latest OI numbers and CoT report.

First of all, you don't have to wait for me. If you want to get this info for yourself, just save these links to your "favorites". The daily OI numbers are usually released by about 2:30 p.m. EDT and the CoTs come out every Friday at around 3:00 p.m. EDT.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_quotes_settlements_futures.html

https://news.goldseek.com/COT/1332531154.php

Both the OI numbers from yesterday and the CoT were exactly what I was hoping for. I posted comments with analysis into the previous thread but I wanted to ensure that as many of you saw it as possible, so I am copy-and-pasting both comments below. It is important to keep in mind the limitations of these reports. They are not necessarily forward-looking in that both are already dated by the time they are released. Therefore, they should be treated more like "forensic evidence" of current and past Cartel activity. For example, it is very difficult to use CoT data exclusively to identify potential tops as the capacity to absorb spec longs is nearly unlimited. The Cartels could go to 4:1 net short or 5:1 net short on the backs of Fed-supplied cash and the established practice of fractional bullion banking. That said for 2012 we will, however, use the net short ratios of late February as benchmarks for possible Cartel limitations. As for calling bottoms, the data is more helpful. Bottoms form over a much longer time period than tops and price declines tend to bottom in the general area where Cartel net short ratios reached 2:1.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on March 23, 2012 - 2:39pm
Perfect, 100%-predictable OI moves yesterday.
Recall that I began feeling yesterday that the decline we saw yesterday morning was "it", the final low, at least for gold. Gold rallied in the late morning yesterday and closed the Comex down $7.70. I expected the OI to decline marginally as this has been the trend in this "correction". The numbers are in and the OI did decline marginally, falling back under 432,000 and a near double-bottom in OI with Tuesday's number, which coincides with a near double-bottom in price. With the rally today that continues this afternoon, chances are very high that I will be proven correct in this latest "Turd's Bottom" for gold.
Silver also acted as expected yesterday. Recall that, on Tuesday, silver declined $1.12 but total OI surged by over 3,000 contracts. I surmised at the time this was indicative of spec shorts being added at the bottom...shorts that will soon be fleeced by the EE with a sharp move to the upside. I was curious to see if OI rose again yesterday because, as you know, silver declined by $0.88 yesterday on the Comex session. Well, whaddayaknow? Total OI rose by 1,400 contracts yesterday during the near $1 selloff. I have deep faith that this was the final suck-in of extra spec shorts before the bottom, just like 2/28 was the final suck-in of the spec longs before the beatdown. For further evidence, as of yesterday the total silver OI is now 5,500 contracts higher than it was on 3/15/12 yet price is $1.38 lower.
Once again, this helps to complete the bottom picture. Spec longs have been wrung out of gold as total OI has now "double-bottomed" below 431,000...an OI level we last saw on Valentine's Day when price was $1718. Spec longs have been driven out of silver, too, and importantly, fresh spec shorts have now been driven in as total silver is already 5,500 contracts off of its "correction lows".

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on March 23, 2012 - 3:21pm.
WOW WOW WOW!!! I LOVE THE CoT REPORT!!!
GOLD
Exactly what I was hoping for! The large specs longs shed 15,468 or another 6% while large spec shorts grew by 3,975 or, roughly 11%. Beautiful! Even the small specs got in on the action by punting 4,500 longs while adding 1,600 shorts. The all-important Cartel did exactly what I'd hoped---They added 15,424 long (10%) while covering 10,126 (3%) shorts. This means the net short position of The Gold Bullion Banking Cartel shrunk by over 25,000 contracts during the week where price fell nearly $50! The net short ratio is now almost exactly 2:1, down from the 2.7:1 that it reached on 2/28 and is actually a shade lower than where it was on 12/27 when price was $1598. A very, very bullish picture!
SILVER
Like gold, almost perfect! First of all, remember that total OI barely budged over the 3/13-3/20 reporting period, only falling by about 300 contracts while price fell by nearly $2. Ideally, in this situation the large spec longs would be resolute while, at the same time, the EE shrunk their net short position. Additionally, I had hoped that the bulk of the downside price pressure had come from new large and small spec shorts. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED! ​While price fell $2, large spec longs actually added 30 contracts. This is what we mean when we say that "silver is in strong hands"! Another good sign is that large spec shorts surged by 17% and small spec longs punted almost 9%. Perfect!! Then...the all-important Evil Empire. The Forces of Darkness added 2,281 longs (+6.45%) while covering 1,224 shorts (1.7%). This is a net change in the overall short position of 3,500 contracts (-9.84%) and brings the net short ratio down to 1.85:1. Again, for reference, the EE net short ratio on 2/28 was 2.32:1 and, on 12/27/11 it was a scant 1.34:1. From a purely CoT perspective, you might conclude that silver still has a little ways to go before reaching the extraordinarily bullish levels of late December. However, you must keep in mind that silver is still $3 higher in price than it was back then, too. Therefore, these silver CoT numbers are perfectly acceptable to those (like me) who are searching for a bottom in the here and now.
In conclusion, I am very, very excited for next week and the weeks ahead. Combining the CoTs with the current OI, then adding in the recent backwardation and and the looks of the charts and other technicals and you get a picture that looks, smells and feels like a significant bottom and "markets" that are poised to rebound very soon.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Next up are two, very interesting weekly charts. As we search for a bottom, note first that gold actually had an UP week last week. Sure didn't feel like it, though. Also, notice that silver has had 4 straight DOWN weeks. While I admit that my eyesight is experiencing some middle-age "issues", I challenge everyone to inspect the weekly silver chart and find a period over the last 5 years where silver has experienced 5, consecutive DOWN weeks. Personally, I don't see one. This makes it seem like history is on our side next week.

Lastly, my friend "Big Red" from Virginia sent me this link earlier this week and I thought I would post it here to begin a discussion. Though, for me, the author lays a bit too much blame at the feet of the O'bottom Regime, he nonetheless does a fine job of detailing the precariousness by which freedom currently hangs. He also correctly identifies the problem as being ultimately caused by all politicians, of both parties. Other than that, it's just some light and happy, weekend reading. <sarc>

OUR COLD CIVIL WAR
By Benjamin Smith
On the heels of NDAA, ObamaCare, Stimulus, Son of Stimulus, Patriot Act, takeover of auto, energy, media and movie industries, and the relentless implementation of Agenda 21... the Obama regime running our country into the ground has issued an updated Executive Order which suggests the probability of impending MARTIAL LAW.
We are left to scratch our heads and ask……… Why now?
The only possible answer is…
America is in fact, right now, in the vicious throes of a Cold Civil War.
Cold as in non-violent and Civil as in nationwide; an attempt to force a new government-controlled ideology upon an unwilling public
.... Read more: https://www.theospark.net/2012/03/our-cold-civil-war.html

That's all for this week. Let's hope and prepare for a turnaround next week, particularly once gold option expiry is behind us. See you Monday. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  228 Comments

Fred Hayek
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:58am

From Denninger's site re Zimmerman and Martin

At the link below, Denninger has apparently copied the police blotter report of the incident. If it's real, then the whole template of innocent kid meets Bull Connor being jumped to by some people doesn't hold water. Zimmerman was bleading from the head and had grass stains all over the back of his shirt. We may never know exactly what happened but if that report is legit then at least some of the stereotypes immediately jumped to don't quite fit the situation. Zimmerman might've been a totally unreasonable asshole, but Martin probably wasn't just standing there if Zimmerman had been knocked on his back and was bleeding from his head.

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=203898

I Run Bartertown
Mar 26, 2012 - 10:05am

Mr. Hayek

Not only that, but the eyewitness that confirms it was interviewed by MSM in late February.

They've known the whole time.

¤
Mar 26, 2012 - 10:18am

TF

Hope your children feel well soon.

Nothing worse then seeing your little ones miserable or hurting.

Dracula S Roche
Mar 26, 2012 - 10:34am

Re: Crowdsource Gold Search

Thanks

March 14, 1968...The day the London Gold Pool collapsed due to the demand for physical delivery.

The crucial decision, as recorded by the State Department... https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v08/d189

where I read this:

(6) This probably would mean a period of chaos in world financial markets, but it may be the only way to push the others into a sensible long-run arrangement which avoids a rise in the official price of gold. We are unanimously agreed that a rise in the price of gold is the worst outcome.

To fight with a chance is necessary to understand your enemy. Therefore, it is necessary to get beyond this and to understand why a rise in price is worst outcome?

ClinkinKY
Mar 26, 2012 - 10:40am

Wow...just, wow.

Obama told Russian President Dmitri medvedev to give him some space on missile defense negotiations until after the election.
“I’ll have more time after the election.”
ABC reported:

At the tail end of his 90 minute meeting with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev Monday, President Obama said that he would have “more flexibility” to deal with controversial issues such as missile defense, but incoming Russian President Vladimir Putin needs to give him “space.”

The exchange was picked up by microphones as reporters were let into the room for remarks by the two leaders.

The exchange:

President Obama: On all these issues, but particularly missile defense, this, this can be solved but it’s important for him to give me space.

President Medvedev: Yeah, I understand. I understand your message about space. Space for you…

President Obama: This is my last election. After my election I have more flexibility.

President Medvedev: I understand. I will transmit this information to Vladimir.

When asked to explain what President Obama meant, deputy national security adviser for strategic communications Ben Rhodes told ABC News that there is room for the U.S. and Russia to reach an accommodation, but “there is a lot of rhetoric around this issue — there always is — in both countries.

ClinkinKY
Mar 26, 2012 - 10:50am

Mar 26, 2012 - 11:04am

This just in...

Good point by Graham Summers about QE

"Bailout Ben Bernanke just hinted at more QE in his speech at the National Association for Business Economics this morning. With gas prices at $4 and food prices not far off from their all time highs, I cannot see how Bernanke can possibly unveil more QE without unleashing major political outrage and destroying Obama's chances at re-election (Obama did re-elect Bernanke as Fed Chairman). So I view this hint as more posturing from Bernanke. He likely is aware that seasonal adjustments have made all economic data from the last three months look better than reality and is simply trying to prep the markets for what's likely going to be a slew of bad data started in 2Q12. "

Urban Roman
Mar 26, 2012 - 11:16am

Silver Slated to Rise

OK, Turd, this better be right or I want my money back!

Oh.

Well, I just bet the farm and a couple ranches that silver would climb this week. If it works I'll hit the 'donate' button, how's that?

GoldMania3000
Mar 26, 2012 - 11:27am

Bernake Posturing?

Don't think so. He was doing that two weeks ago. Rickards has been saying for a long time now QE in the summer. it's about the USD. no one seems to be talking about there here. but he's living bye it. why would he posture, when the economy sucks. QE to infinity...it's baked in the cake. He's preparing everyone for what's coming...he doens't need to do a QE fake, but he would need to do a non-QE fake

TPaine Boswell
Mar 26, 2012 - 11:38am

there's also CTRL + Keypad+/-

there's also (CTRL)+(Keypad Plus/Minus) to zoom in/out. works in firefox, at least...
Argyrocatharsis
Mar 26, 2012 - 11:54am

Solid site/web community

Keep it up , very valuable form of exchange of information,hopefully enough people will open there eyes.

Here is my take ....We owe it to our circles of influence to educate,help de-plug them from the system (I know...I know...most will not listen)....plant the seeds nevertheless, do not give up . As for Silver-Gold , me I am BIG in PSLV, and toying around with AGQ & USLV as well as EXG - GPL -SLW....I see $100 + in Silver within 18 months, huge volatility in price on the way up....remember to share the wealth , be a lamp stand in the darkness.

zman
Mar 26, 2012 - 12:41pm

Ben has no choice, QE 3 is a

Ben has no choice, QE 3 is a must, if oil is too high it does not matter. What is the difference if oil is at 90 or 110? Failure to control interest rates is much more dangerous than Joe 6 Pack spending a few extra bucks at the pump.

Some say Obama can not get reelected if gold is over $2000, give me a break, I only know 3 people that even know what price gold trades at, it makes no difference.

Monedas
Mar 26, 2012 - 12:52pm

Hayek, Zilverreiger and Velocity !

A momment of agreement ! If Zimmerman was attacked and thrown to the ground and injured.....we have to give him a little lattitude if he did over react....the agressor should be responsible for the collateral damage he provokes ! If he felt he was defending his life....he was justified ! Not paying taxes is peaceful protest.....just like a stupid liberal sit in....except it is for less government ! They can't put everyone in jail ! Monedas 2012 Sold my loser Hecla and bought NSU (Nevsun Resources Inc.) and am already ahead !

ivars
Mar 26, 2012 - 12:57pm

Comparison of EUR/USD prediction/reality and small improvement

The October 5th, 2011 prediction chart-almost spot on the trends:

https://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=600#p34394

slightly improved as actual behavior over last 6 months allows to scale time axis a little bit better-looks like that:

So, Euro zone problems will be bigger from May 2012 than any coming USA QE until USA default in end of 2015/early 2016

Also here:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/553934#comment-553934

aether
Mar 26, 2012 - 1:05pm

.

new thread is up

ClinkinKY
Mar 26, 2012 - 1:34pm

Didn't want to "intrude" on new thread...

...so here is another "creative" video by the "other side". What a difference 3+ years makes.

American Crossroads: "Individual Mandate: Obama v. Obama"
Stratajema Velocity
Mar 26, 2012 - 1:40pm

@Velocity

You said: "If you want a vote that works, Stop Paying Your Taxes ...a Tax Revolt hits the suckers where it hurts. Simple and effective"

Wrong, wrong, and more wrong! Why would you set up people to fail or be imprisoned in the Gulag Casino state that America has become?

America is a consumer economy. If one drastically lowers their consumption, then that will accomplish a heck of a lot more than what you are trying to recommend. Lower consumption equals less state and federal sales taxes on the sale transaction and ultimately less taxes paid by the companies manufacturing, distributing and end-selling merchandise. And you don't go to jail for non-consumption, at least for the time being.

Velocity
Mar 26, 2012 - 5:48pm

@ Stratajema

Tax Revolts are quite a common protest through the Centuries

..from the Boston Tea Party to many tax revolts in England as early as 25 years ago with the Poll Tax against Margaret Thatcher... there's currently a tax revolt in Ireland (a Turdite posted couple of links past day or two) being organised and justified by the Irish Socialist Party no less on the grounds of protest is democracy in action (exactly right too)

Regards tax protestors being a "failure" or "imprisoned" the Irish socialist also mentioned it was important they had enough numbers to make it impossible for the (minority) State to convict them all and even protest outside Courts to ramp the public pressure if the State tries to fine citizens with very onerous penalties

You recommend instead reducing consumption which in turn reduces taxes. That's a bit indirect don't you think? Why not cut the suckers off at the jugular, without harming consumer businesses, and refuse the big one, income tax??

Consumption reduction would probably harm as many good sectors as that big bad rotten sector, and the root of all our current economic problems/unemployment, Government

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Recent Comments

by Angry Chef, 8 min 5 sec ago
by goldcom, 1 hour 45 min ago
by Turd Ferguson, 1 hour 59 min ago
by Turd Ferguson, 2 hours 4 min ago