Saturday Gold and Silver Summary

Sat, Mar 24, 2012 - 12:31pm

I've found a couple of things for your weekend, so I thought it best to start this new thread. Mainly, I had to make sure that everyone saw the latest OI numbers and CoT report.

First of all, you don't have to wait for me. If you want to get this info for yourself, just save these links to your "favorites". The daily OI numbers are usually released by about 2:30 p.m. EDT and the CoTs come out every Friday at around 3:00 p.m. EDT.

Both the OI numbers from yesterday and the CoT were exactly what I was hoping for. I posted comments with analysis into the previous thread but I wanted to ensure that as many of you saw it as possible, so I am copy-and-pasting both comments below. It is important to keep in mind the limitations of these reports. They are not necessarily forward-looking in that both are already dated by the time they are released. Therefore, they should be treated more like "forensic evidence" of current and past Cartel activity. For example, it is very difficult to use CoT data exclusively to identify potential tops as the capacity to absorb spec longs is nearly unlimited. The Cartels could go to 4:1 net short or 5:1 net short on the backs of Fed-supplied cash and the established practice of fractional bullion banking. That said for 2012 we will, however, use the net short ratios of late February as benchmarks for possible Cartel limitations. As for calling bottoms, the data is more helpful. Bottoms form over a much longer time period than tops and price declines tend to bottom in the general area where Cartel net short ratios reached 2:1.


Submitted by Turd Ferguson on March 23, 2012 - 2:39pm
Perfect, 100%-predictable OI moves yesterday.
Recall that I began feeling yesterday that the decline we saw yesterday morning was "it", the final low, at least for gold. Gold rallied in the late morning yesterday and closed the Comex down $7.70. I expected the OI to decline marginally as this has been the trend in this "correction". The numbers are in and the OI did decline marginally, falling back under 432,000 and a near double-bottom in OI with Tuesday's number, which coincides with a near double-bottom in price. With the rally today that continues this afternoon, chances are very high that I will be proven correct in this latest "Turd's Bottom" for gold.
Silver also acted as expected yesterday. Recall that, on Tuesday, silver declined $1.12 but total OI surged by over 3,000 contracts. I surmised at the time this was indicative of spec shorts being added at the bottom...shorts that will soon be fleeced by the EE with a sharp move to the upside. I was curious to see if OI rose again yesterday because, as you know, silver declined by $0.88 yesterday on the Comex session. Well, whaddayaknow? Total OI rose by 1,400 contracts yesterday during the near $1 selloff. I have deep faith that this was the final suck-in of extra spec shorts before the bottom, just like 2/28 was the final suck-in of the spec longs before the beatdown. For further evidence, as of yesterday the total silver OI is now 5,500 contracts higher than it was on 3/15/12 yet price is $1.38 lower.
Once again, this helps to complete the bottom picture. Spec longs have been wrung out of gold as total OI has now "double-bottomed" below 431, OI level we last saw on Valentine's Day when price was $1718. Spec longs have been driven out of silver, too, and importantly, fresh spec shorts have now been driven in as total silver is already 5,500 contracts off of its "correction lows".

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on March 23, 2012 - 3:21pm.
Exactly what I was hoping for! The large specs longs shed 15,468 or another 6% while large spec shorts grew by 3,975 or, roughly 11%. Beautiful! Even the small specs got in on the action by punting 4,500 longs while adding 1,600 shorts. The all-important Cartel did exactly what I'd hoped---They added 15,424 long (10%) while covering 10,126 (3%) shorts. This means the net short position of The Gold Bullion Banking Cartel shrunk by over 25,000 contracts during the week where price fell nearly $50! The net short ratio is now almost exactly 2:1, down from the 2.7:1 that it reached on 2/28 and is actually a shade lower than where it was on 12/27 when price was $1598. A very, very bullish picture!
Like gold, almost perfect! First of all, remember that total OI barely budged over the 3/13-3/20 reporting period, only falling by about 300 contracts while price fell by nearly $2. Ideally, in this situation the large spec longs would be resolute while, at the same time, the EE shrunk their net short position. Additionally, I had hoped that the bulk of the downside price pressure had come from new large and small spec shorts. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED! ​While price fell $2, large spec longs actually added 30 contracts. This is what we mean when we say that "silver is in strong hands"! Another good sign is that large spec shorts surged by 17% and small spec longs punted almost 9%. Perfect!! Then...the all-important Evil Empire. The Forces of Darkness added 2,281 longs (+6.45%) while covering 1,224 shorts (1.7%). This is a net change in the overall short position of 3,500 contracts (-9.84%) and brings the net short ratio down to 1.85:1. Again, for reference, the EE net short ratio on 2/28 was 2.32:1 and, on 12/27/11 it was a scant 1.34:1. From a purely CoT perspective, you might conclude that silver still has a little ways to go before reaching the extraordinarily bullish levels of late December. However, you must keep in mind that silver is still $3 higher in price than it was back then, too. Therefore, these silver CoT numbers are perfectly acceptable to those (like me) who are searching for a bottom in the here and now.
In conclusion, I am very, very excited for next week and the weeks ahead. Combining the CoTs with the current OI, then adding in the recent backwardation and and the looks of the charts and other technicals and you get a picture that looks, smells and feels like a significant bottom and "markets" that are poised to rebound very soon.


Next up are two, very interesting weekly charts. As we search for a bottom, note first that gold actually had an UP week last week. Sure didn't feel like it, though. Also, notice that silver has had 4 straight DOWN weeks. While I admit that my eyesight is experiencing some middle-age "issues", I challenge everyone to inspect the weekly silver chart and find a period over the last 5 years where silver has experienced 5, consecutive DOWN weeks. Personally, I don't see one. This makes it seem like history is on our side next week.

Lastly, my friend "Big Red" from Virginia sent me this link earlier this week and I thought I would post it here to begin a discussion. Though, for me, the author lays a bit too much blame at the feet of the O'bottom Regime, he nonetheless does a fine job of detailing the precariousness by which freedom currently hangs. He also correctly identifies the problem as being ultimately caused by all politicians, of both parties. Other than that, it's just some light and happy, weekend reading. <sarc>

By Benjamin Smith
On the heels of NDAA, ObamaCare, Stimulus, Son of Stimulus, Patriot Act, takeover of auto, energy, media and movie industries, and the relentless implementation of Agenda 21... the Obama regime running our country into the ground has issued an updated Executive Order which suggests the probability of impending MARTIAL LAW.
We are left to scratch our heads and ask……… Why now?
The only possible answer is…
America is in fact, right now, in the vicious throes of a Cold Civil War.
Cold as in non-violent and Civil as in nationwide; an attempt to force a new government-controlled ideology upon an unwilling public
.... Read more:

That's all for this week. Let's hope and prepare for a turnaround next week, particularly once gold option expiry is behind us. See you Monday. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 24, 2012 - 4:36pm

You know I was talking to my

You know I was talking to my neighbor about some of this stuff. I don't know if he believes me. I don't know if my other neighbors believe me. I'm not sure if it is ok to be the neighborhood whack job. Even my own Mom said I was an alarmist. I have one friend who thinks I want all of this to happen. He thinks I want to be right. I just don't think people know how to connect the dots. Either that or their head is in *ahem* the sand.

But that Executive Order on 3/17/12 was really a crystallizing moment for me. I really don't know what to think or what will be coming any more. All I know is that the power grab for the Executive branch is getting seriously out of control. It was out of control under Bush Jr. as well - don't get me wrong. And now not being able to protest the government unless it is in a Secret Service approved "zone" with the possibility of being hauled off to a FEMA camp never to be seen again or to be told why you are being held or even allowed to stand trial - is very unnerving.

And I will have you know this was in the last six months that these new laws occurred!!! Six months! Are you outraged! I sure as hell am! What is happening to our civil liberties? Why are not more people standing up? Is it fear? Is it stupidity? Is it apathy? Is it the warm coziness of the Status Quo? This is all very frustrating to watch in slow motion though it seems it is picking up speed. The sad part is I still can't find a job. 2 years 5 months on now. I can't even do what I want to prepare.

We have to prevent the left and the right from dividing us. All the hot button issues have been making everyone crazy. And most of it is about our creator given rights anyway. If more people lived by the Golden Rule we wouldn't have a lot of problems. But it is the race card, the reverse race card, the war on women, gay marriage, the wars abroad, the war on drugs etc. etc. etc.

Well, let's have a war on stupidity, lets end the war on civil liberties, how about a war for truth, a war on lies, a war on the Fed, a war against depreciating fiat currency, a war against crony capitalism, a war against unjust wars, a war on undeclared wars, a war against unemployment, a war for freedom, a war for a balanced budget, a war on the carbon tax.

I'm so sick of inflammatory language used to try and dictate propaganda to the masses. It hurts my brain when I see it on TV. Even Lou Dobbs has gotten so full of himself that I don't even want to watch him hardly anymore. He talks as if he called the economy bouncing back. He even plays a clip from the night he called it. He talks the economy up every god damned night and now he is so smug and arrogant of a bastard he is writing on a black board ala Glenn Beck now. Like we need to be force fed some lesson in a class. Funny thing, is you can't talk up the economy to people who are living it. Its much harder to do when someone can go to the Oracle we call the Internet and find out the truth. "Well, that's a bunch of bullshit." Indeed. Indeed.

Big Rocks
Mar 24, 2012 - 5:58pm


Another option for Thailand is if you can or want to teach English. It's low pay up country but depends on you personal lifestyle. There's a good website you can check out Expats, lots of Aussies. Also consider Bali, easier and cheaper to stay there. Good luck

Mar 24, 2012 - 6:07pm

Inflation-Dr G-my poor "kids"

Here is my contribution. Yes, it's about cat food. Don't laugh. I used to buy the "cheapy" friskies and/or store brand for my cats. Not even a year ago, I could get it for 25cents a can. When on sale, sometimes, up to 6 for a buck. That was before they shrunk the cans from 6oz to 5.5 oz. But then, something happened. My cats started refusing to eat the food they had been eating for years. Too many cheap fillers? Canned food is a treat for them, I usually feed them just dry food.

So, being the indulgent mama I am, started buying the foo foo Fancy Feast. They would still eat that. When I started buying the foo foo food it was 40cents/can. This year, has had 3 increases to 50 then 60 cents a can. Yesterday, went to get some more -73cents per can!!! So my canned cat food costs have gone up almost 300% in the last year. I think I posted earlier this year about my poor doggies' "milk bone" treats. Cheapy brand went up from $2.79 a bag to 4.79 a bag. I used to be able to get the dog treats on sale 2/$5.

It has gotten to the point it is actually cheaper for me to feed my cats/dogs people food. At least I know what they are really getting by doing that. Unfortunately, my dogs are big dogs, so I still need to buy dry bulk food for them. But the cats are loving eating what I eat, especially the fish! A lot of which I catch myself, being an avid angler.

maravich44 TheGoodDoctor
Mar 24, 2012 - 6:41pm

@TheGoodDoctor..ahhhh Help on the Way..

..I was hopeful for you on the recent job that you mentioned, had you in my thoughts. Great post, could not have expressed it any better, hang on brother, we are on the right side of this.,/

Mar 24, 2012 - 6:42pm

my brand of beer

up 38% in 4 years.

Mar 24, 2012 - 6:46pm
Mar 24, 2012 - 6:48pm

The CME's Daily Delivery Report

The CME's Daily Delivery Report for Friday showed that 29 gold and 113 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday and, as has been the case all year, it was Jefferies as the short/issuer on all 113 contracts...and the Bank of Nova Scotia and JPMorgan were the long/stoppers...with 75 and 31 contracts respectively. The Issuers and Stoppers Report is worth a look...and the link is here.

There were no reported changes in GLD yesterday...but an authorized participant withdrew a rather smallish 339,921 troy ounces of silver out of SLV.

And, for the first time in a while, the U.S. Mint had a sales report worthy of the name. They sold 8,500 troy ounces of gold eagles...4,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 275,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has sold 43,500 ounce of gold eagles...23,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 2,137,000 silver eagles.

So far this month, silver eagles are up about 33% over February's sales month...and gold eagle/buffalo sales are up 120% over the same period. I would agree with what Ted Butler had to say in one of his recent commentaries, that once this market turns to the upside with some real force behind it, we'll see some daily sales that will make your eyes water, because the mint has probably been building up inventory over the last six weeks or so...and will be able to fill all orders regardless of size, as they won't be constrained by current production levels.

Mar 24, 2012 - 6:50pm

It took a little coercing but I'm sure glad they posted it

Turd Ferguson
2:35 PM (3 hours ago)
Hi, Tylers.
Please consider looking into this SilverDoctors story. I don't personally know "The Docs" but they've always seemed to be legitimate and this story certainly appears so, too. Broadcast on ZH could really draw some attention that might prove or disprove this "conspiracy theory" once and for all. TF

Mar 24, 2012 - 6:50pm

MF’s Corzine Ordered Funds Moved to JP Morgan, Memo Says

MF’s Corzine Ordered Funds Moved to JP Morgan, Memo Says

Jon S. Corzine, MF Global Holding Ltd. chief executive officer, gave “direct instructions” to transfer $200 million from a customer fund account to meet an overdraft in a brokerage account with JPMorgan Chase & Co., according to a memo written by congressional investigators.

Edith O’Brien, a treasurer for the firm, said in an e-mail quoted in the memo that the transfer was “Per JC’s direct instructions,” according to a copy of the memo obtained by Bloomberg News. The e-mail, dated Oct. 28, was sent three days before the company collapsed, the memo says. The memo does not indicate whether that phrase was the full text of the e-mail or an excerpt.

O’Brien’s internal e-mail was sent as the New York-based broker found intraday credit lines limited by JPMorgan, the firm’s clearing bank as well as one of its custodian banks for segregated customer funds, according to the memo, which was prepared for a March 28 House Financial Services subcommittee hearing on the firm’s collapse. O’Brien is scheduled to testify at the hearing after being subpoenaed this week.

Posted on Bloomberg. com ....and the link is here.

Mar 24, 2012 - 6:52pm

Bernanke: Economy Lacks Strength to Sustain Gains

There is still not enough spending and investment to sustain the economic recovery, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday.

Bernanke said consumer demand remains weak relative to its level before the Great Recession. He noted that other contributors to economic growth — including borrowing and trade — have declined.

"Consumer spending has not ... recovered. It's still quite weak relative to where it was before the crisis," Bernanke said in the second of four lectures he is giving to George Washington University students this month. "We lack a source of demand to keep the economy growing."

Posted on ...and the link is here.

Mar 24, 2012 - 6:55pm

Havana Gets a Taste of the Free Market

Cuba's Pioneering Days

Inhabitants of the communist bastion of Cuba have been getting a taste of the free market lately with the introduction of market reforms by President Raúl Castro. The Catholic Church is supporting his endeavor, and Pope Benedict's visit could boost efforts to open up the country.

In the economic sphere, however, things that were once unthinkable are suddenly possible. To reduce expenses, the government recently laid off 500,000 employees. They are now permitted to open shops and handicraft businesses, sell real estate, cars and home-grown vegetables, or -- as in the case of Perez -- drive their own rickshaws. Within a year, the number of very small businesses has doubled to almost 350,000. Nevertheless, these ventures are still a far cry from being genuine small businesses or even privately owned companies.

Posted on the link is here.

Mar 24, 2012 - 6:59pm

Tibetan Self-Immolations Rise as China Tightens Grip

MAQU, China — Like many children of Tibetan nomads, Tsering Kyi started school relatively late, at age 10, but by all accounts she made up for lost time by studying with zeal.

“Even when she was out at pasture with her parents’ flock, there was always a book in her hand,” a cousin said.

In a flash she was a heap of flames, her fist raised defiantly, before falling to the ground, residents said. She died at the scene.

That passion for learning apparently turned to despair this month when the Maqu County Tibetan Middle School, in Gansu Province near Tibet, switched to Chinese from Tibetan as the language of instruction. The policy shift has incited protests across the high-altitude steppe that is home to five million Tibetans and a far greater number of ethnic Han Chinese.

Over the past year 29 Tibetans, seven of them in the last three weeks, have chosen a similarly agonizing, self-annihilating protest against Chinese policies. Of those, 22 have died.

Beijing, alarmed about the threat to stability in a region seething with discontent over religious and cultural controls, has responded with an assortment of heavy-handed measures. Officials have described the self-immolators as outcasts and terrorists, blamed the pernicious influence of Tibetan exiles and flooded the region with checkpoints and paramilitary police officers in flak jackets.

Posted at The New York Times...and the link is here.

Dr G
Mar 24, 2012 - 7:04pm

Turd, glad ZH posted the

Turd, glad ZH posted the article. Good call.

Dyna mo hum TheGoodDoctor
Mar 24, 2012 - 7:12pm

Good Doctor

I tried to give you 2 hat tips but that will not work for me. That was a good piece so keepem coming. I really hope you score a job soon. I know its hard. I was bitching to my dad many years ago (1984 or 5) about how bad things were trying to raise 2 children on a meager income. To things he told me I will never forget one was "son this is not paradise" and later in that same conversation he said " son I hate to tell you this but you have already lived through the best times this country will see for a long long time? Dad is gone now and I could tell you more but you get the picture. You hang in there brother you are not alone by any means.

Mar 24, 2012 - 7:14pm

"Management of Perception Economy"

All the talk of recovery in the US economy is MOPE. The debt crisis in Europe easing is MOPE. Stories of tungsten inside metal is to scare people away from purchasing bullion, MOPE. Slamming the price down at important technical moments in the chart. MOPE.

There are two powers available to the FED, one is devaluing currency the other is MOPE. They are using both constantly. The mainstream media is controlled. The lie is told again and again and again and again. The lies are told so often that they become accepted as truth by the people.

Everything that is happening in the world, the wars in the middle east the fraud and manipulation in all the markets is to stop precious metals being our money. Its all about keeping the fiat as the currency. They are determined to make a global fiat currency rise out of the ashes of the previous global fiat currency, the US dollar. This is only possible while the people remain brainwashed by the lies in the media.

When I read the article that Turd shared about the loss of liberty in the US I just thought its not a civil war. Its global. This is happening everywhere. Once you accept the premise that there are a group of people trying to take global control of the money and the economy the MOPE becomes transparent.

There is no example ever in history of fiat currency beating gold and silver. Don't succumb to the MOPE

maravich44 TF
Mar 24, 2012 - 7:23pm

@Turd. 007....Goldfinger.

..always been a James Bond(Ian Fleming) fan and am also sure that Ft Knox has No Gold nor does the the U.S.. The Royal Scam. comes to mind ....good Steely Dan tune btw..

Stratajema Mariposa de Oro
Mar 24, 2012 - 7:34pm

@Mariposa de Oro

Thai people are way ahead of Americans in understanding money versus currency. After the last financial collapse in Asia, Thai people learned to periodically exchange the Thai baht (currency) for gold (money). And the Thai baht has been slowly appreciating against the USD over the past 7+ years, to the point where Thailand is trying to control foreign capital inflows into its country.

Regarding your question: "Are single women considered 'prey'?" The answer is that you are the prey. Never forget that as a premise for navigating yourself through their culture, despite what your emotions may be. Good reading material about understanding the culture can be found by Googling "Stickman Bangkok".

Silver Spurs
Mar 24, 2012 - 7:43pm

To the Good Doctor:

Well said, sir. Hope things work out for you soon. My brother was out of a decent job for 2 years, doing some part-time work to make it thru. It's not easy in the real world. (I'm with you, I'm sick of the polititian's "sound bites made for TV") Only one that addresses the tough issues seems to be Ron Paul, but that's just JMO. Take care, bro.

Mar 24, 2012 - 7:46pm

B.O.'s B*tch (Yeah, I know it's been posted before but...

...thought it should be pointed out how the MSM reports it)

Bloomberg: Dem Corzine Ordered $200 Million Customer Funds Move; AP, UPI, Others Fail to Name His Party; All Omit Obama Bundling

An item filed at the Hill on Friday afternoon by Peter Schroeder tells us that Bloomberg News was the first organization to report the latest development relating to former New Jersey Democratic Governor and Senator Jon Corzine. Bloomberg's report, via Phil Mattingly and Silla Brush, reveals that Corzine, who was CEO at the now-bankrupt MF Global Holdings until November, "gave 'direct instructions' to transfer $200 million from a customer fund account to meet an overdraft in a brokerage account with JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), according to a memo written by congressional investigators." That would be an MF brokerage account, meaning that customer money was used to cover company losses. If the memo reflects what really happened, Corzine committed a crime -- either by committing perjury in his congressional testimony several months, in ordering the transfer itself, or both.

Bloomberg's report identifies Corzine as a Democrat in its fourteenth paragraph. But at least Bloomberg did so. That did not occur in reports at the Associated Press, United Press International,, CNBC. The Hill's Schroeder did tag Corzine as a Dem. Here are several paragraphs from Bloomberg's report (bolds are mine):

Jon S. Corzine, MF Global Holding Ltd. (MFGLQ)’s chief executive officer, gave “direct instructions” to transfer $200 million from a customer fund account to meet an overdraft in a brokerage account with JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), according to a memo written by congressional investigators.

Edith O’Brien, a treasurer for the firm, said in an e-mail quoted in the memo that the transfer was “Per JC’s direct instructions,” according to a copy of the memo obtained by Bloomberg News. The e-mail, dated Oct. 28, was sent three days before the company collapsed, the memo says. The memo does not indicate whether that phrase was the full text of the e-mail or an excerpt.

O’Brien’s internal e-mail was sent as the New York-based broker found intraday credit lines limited by JPMorgan, the firm’s clearing bank as well as one of its custodian banks for segregated customer funds, according to the memo, which was prepared for a March 28 House Financial Services subcommittee hearing on the firm’s collapse.

... Vinay Mahajan, global treasurer of MF Global Holdings, wrote an e-mail on Oct. 28 that said JPMorgan was “holding up vital business in the U.S. as a result” of the overdrawn account, which had to be “fully funded ASAP,” according to the memo.

Barry Zubrow, JPMorgan’s chief risk officer, called Corzine to seek assurances that the funds belonged to MF Global and not customers. JPMorgan drafted a letter to be signed by O’Brien to ensure that MF Global was complying with rules requiring customers’ collateral to be segregated. The letter was not returned to JPMorgan, the memo said.

The money transferred came from a segregated customer account, according to congressional investigators.

... Corzine, 65, in testimony in front of the House panel in December, said he did not order any improper transfer of customer funds.

It's quite likely that those who did note Corzine's party affiliation relied on either Bloomberg's original or Schroeder's short item at the Hill for their initial facts, and that they therefore consciously chose to remove his party affiliation from their items.

And of course, there's no mention anywhere of Corzine's involvement as a major bundler for Barack Obama's 2012 reelection campaign.

Read more:

Mar 24, 2012 - 7:51pm

Jesus Just Left Chicago

Video unavailable
ClinkinKY ¤
Mar 24, 2012 - 8:04pm

@ IndigoStar7 (The artist formerly known as Prince...

...I mean DPH, wow, is this video "topical":)

Mar 24, 2012 - 8:50pm

Mark Steyn (One of the most astute columnists writing today)

The Sun Also Sets

By Mark Steyn March 24, 2012 4:00 A.M.

I was in Australia earlier this month and there, as elsewhere on my recent travels, the consensus among the politicians I met (at least in private) was that Washington lacked the will for meaningful course correction, and that, therefore, the trick was to ensure that, when the behemoth goes over the cliff, you’re not dragged down with it. It is faintly surreal to be sitting in paneled offices lined by formal portraits listening to eminent persons who assume the collapse of the dominant global power is a fait accompli. “I don’t feel America is quite a First World country anymore,” a robustly pro-American Aussie told me, with a sigh of regret.

Well, what does some rinky-dink ’roo-infested didgeridoo mill on the other side of the planet know about anything? Fair enough. But Australia was the only major Western nation not to go into recession after 2008. And in the last decade the U.S. dollar has fallen by half against the Oz buck: That’s to say, in 2002, one greenback bought you a buck-ninety Down Under; now it buys you 95 cents. More of that a bit later.

I have now returned from Oz to the Emerald City, where everything is built with borrowed green. President Obama has run up more debt in three years than President Bush did in eight, and he plans to run up more still — from ten trillion in 2008 to fifteen and a half trillion now to 20 trillion and beyond. Onward and upward! The president doesn’t see this as a problem, nor do his party, and nor do at least fortysomething percent of the American people. The Democrats’ plan is to have no plan, and their budget is not to budget at all. “We don’t need to bring a budget,” said Harry Reid. Why tie yourself down? “We’re not coming before you to say we have a definitive solution,” the treasury secretary told House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan. “What we do know is we don’t like yours.”

Nor do some of Ryan’s fellow conservatives. Texas congressman Louie Gohmert, for whom I have a high regard, was among those representatives who appeared at the Heritage Foundation to express misgivings regarding the Ryan plan’s timidity. They’re not wrong on that: The alleged terrorizer of widows and orphans does not propose to balance the budget of the government of the United States until the year 2040. That would be 27 years after Congressman Ryan’s current term of office expires. Who knows what could throw a wrench in those numbers? Suppose Beijing decides to seize Taiwan. The U.S. is obligated to defend it militarily. But U.S. taxpayers would be funding both sides of the war — the home team, via the Pentagon budget, and the Chinese military, through the interest payments on the debt. (We’ll be bankrolling the entire People’s Liberation Army by some point this decade.) A Beijing–Taipei conflict would be, in budget terms, a U.S. civil war relocated to the Straits of Taiwan. Which is why plans for mid-century are of limited value. When the most notorious extreme callous budget-slasher of the age cannot foresee the government living within its means within the next three decades, you begin to appreciate why foreign observers doubt whether there’ll be a 2040, not for anything recognizable as “the United States.”

Yet it’s widely agreed that Ryan’s plan is about as far as you can push it while retaining minimal political viability. A second-term Obama would roar full throttle to the cliff edge, while a President Romney would be unlikely to do much more than ease off to third gear. At this point, it’s traditional for pundits to warn that if we don’t change course we’re going to wind up like Greece. Presumably they mean that, right now, our national debt, which crossed the Rubicon of 100 percent of GDP just before Christmas, is not as bad as that of Athens, although it’s worse than Britain, Canada, Australia, Sweden, Denmark, and every other European nation except Portugal, Ireland, and Italy. Or perhaps they mean that America’s current deficit-to-GDP ratio is not quite as bad as Greece’s, although it’s worse than that of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Belgium, and every other European nation except Ireland.

Read more:

Mar 24, 2012 - 9:15pm

Saturday - Weekend Report

Just catching up on Turd's new post. This Tungsten filled bar story is huge, if true. Glad to see it is now on ZH, too. Kudos to SilverDoctors for breaking this story.

Here's a new version of RNN's Weekend Report - this one focuses on the story that Jon Corzine may have personally instructed that client funds from MF Global be used to pay JP Morgan.

MF Global's Jon Corzine May Have Given Instructions to Pillage Client Funds
Mariposa de Oro
Mar 24, 2012 - 9:57pm

Thanks Big Rocks , and all

Thanks Big Rocks , and all who have been so kind as to respond. Ya'll have given me some good research material. There are some Thai ladies here that are married to American men that I can speak with, as well as some filipinas. There's even an American woman who travels to Bali frequently and has a small business here called The Bali Lady. She sells some beautiful stuff! Its good to know that there are plenty of other expats and Aussie there though I have some concerns about that if we should find ourselves in a SHTF type of scenario. Thanks again to all who responded.

Mar 24, 2012 - 10:10pm


Technician Alan Newman joins Jim this week and discusses the corruption involved in naked short-selling. He also explains why he likes gold. Ryan Puplava updates this week in the markets, and Rob Bernard joins Jim with his Fixed Income Report. Jim also takes Q-Calls this segment.

Mar 24, 2012 - 10:59pm

Inflating the fish away?

Just a little more follow up on the insidious inflation befalling us citizens. Take fresh fish, like Ahi, which used to be a real treat for me. A year ago it was $8.99 a pound. Then it went up to $12.99 a pound last September, then $16.99 around the beginning of February. I went shopping a few days ago, and they didn't have any at all. The fish guy said that there was a worldwide shortage. I also noticed that about 1/2 of the fish under the counter were farm raised. Wild salmon like Chinook (king salmon) from Oregon or Alaska waters, were well north of $16.00 lb. Halibut was now around $22. Lb. These prices are about twice what they were 3 years ago. The price for almost any wild caught fish is now beyond the reach of most working people. Even the farm raised stuff is expensive. Wild caught Oregon bay shrimp, (the tiny pink ones) however, are still a relative bargain at $5-7 lb.

I told the fish guy that I wouldn't be surprised if all the wild fish were gone in 10 years? "Yeah,” he said, "probably sooner."

Peak fish bitchz!

(As they say over at the 'fight club')

ps: Waiting for delivery of 6 - 10 oz. Heraeus bars from Bullion Direct. Sold some miners last week and bought some silver. Didn't want to do it, but I'm scaling out of paper altogether.

Mar 24, 2012 - 11:49pm

400 Chernobyls: Solar Flares, Electromagnetic Pulses and Nuclear


Saturday, 24 March 2012 00:00 By Matthew Stein, Truthout | News Analysis

There are nearly 450 nuclear reactors in the world, with hundreds more being planned or under construction. There are 104 of these reactors in the United States and 195 in Europe. Imagine what havoc it would wreak on our civilization and the planet's ecosystems if we were to suddenly witness not just one or two nuclear meltdowns, but 400 or more! How likely is it that our world might experience an event that could ultimately cause hundreds of reactors to fail and melt down at approximately the same time? I venture to say that, unless we take significant protective measures, this apocalyptic scenario is not only possible, but probable.

Read the entire article here:

Truly scary, especially the part: "I venture to say that, unless we take significant protective measures, this apocalyptic scenario is not only possible, but probable."

Maybe this is why the government is so crazy. They know this is going to happen, or will likely happen.

El Gordo
Mar 24, 2012 - 11:59pm

Give me a break

Please give me a break from all this carnage BS. Whether it be nuclear, biological, climate, disease and pestilance, etc., the fact is that when your number is up, it's up. Anyone who thinks we can either destroy the world or save the world need to deflate their ego a bit.

Mar 25, 2012 - 12:13am


If Corzine personally stole $200 million of a client's money, and gave it to JP Morgan, shouldn't he be charged with a crime?

Mar 25, 2012 - 12:21am

TF, Pegasus, and El Gordo

Since I'm relatively new to all this analysis by TF I'd like to ask a short-term question. Is there a price move that usually coincides with the expiration of options such as the coming Tuesday? And what would be the reason (manipulative or not) for it?

@Pegasus regarding peak fish I believe the global catch of wild fish already peaked out in the 1990s. Since then the price of fish has only gone up, closing off the fruits of the sea for most people. Ironically, this premium has made seafood a near-status symbol in rich society, increasing demand by the rich and furthering increasing the price of fish well out of reach for ordinary citizens. Not a good thing to be observing, IMO.

@El Gordo absolutely we cannot destroy the world, nukes or otherwise. No matter what we do to the biosphere it will recover in a geologically rapid timeframe. However, we are well within our abilities to make life hard for ourselves by perturbing ecological systems and tipping natural feedback loops in the wrong direction, or creating fragile political and financial systems that reward short-term thinking and discourage reasonable decision making. These disruptions have toppled many previous societies, to the ruin and suffering of many. This is what we are experiencing now. So, in a sense we are capable of saving and destroying our world, if not the world. I think we are in some control of timing when our numbers are up, and that's why I'm here. To learn how to protect the wealth and resources of my friends, my family and myself.


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TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
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