Is It Monday Already?

Mon, Mar 5, 2012 - 10:37am

Sheesh! After last week, I was really looking forward to some down time and now, all of a sudden, it's Monday. Oh well, not much we can do except deal with it.

Our precious precious metals traded lower overnight in another London goon mugging that began exactly at 3:00 am EST and had, by 4:30, trimmed another $15 off of price. On the bright side, however, gold once again found solid buying support just below 1700 and has now moved back above the important technical level of 1705. This is very encouraging as the more times gold successfully tests 1680+, the more likely that this storm will pass and gold will resume its upward climb.

Silver, too, was driven lower overnight, the decline beginning precisely at 3:00 a.m. Like gold, it then found strong support right where it should, namely $34. It looks pretty good here but, like gold, I must caution you against getting antsy. Cartel history suggests that they wouldn't go to all the trouble of rigging things lower last week to simply walk away this week. We must be on the lookout for further attacks. Therefore, hold your fire for now. I'd buy gold if it gets back above $1730 OR if it dips toward $1680 and then $1650. Similar thing in silver: Not much reason to buy it right here. Let's see if more pressure comes in and we can get it between 33 and 34.

Another factor that may keep the pressure on the PMs is weakness in crude. Though I'm convinced that crude is heading significantly higher from here, the chart below suggests a downward bias for the next few days. Note the peak to $110. The two-day decline to $106 and then the two-day recovery which was immediately pulled back on Friday. This market looks ripe for a $3 selloff from here, down to $103-104. As you might imagine, declining crude will serve to pressure PM prices, too.

Next, I'd just like to wrap up with a bow the giant sack of manure that was last week. First of all, this quote via KWN of Eric Sprott regarding the rationale behind the ongoing manipulation of precious metals:

James Turk always says, ‘It’s a managed retreat here. The price of gold and silver go up every year, but they don’t want it to get out of hand.’ As everyone is aware, on Wednesday, silver was breaking out, gold was approaching $1,800 and I just think it wasn’t allowed to happen because central banks try to keep control over precious metals so people don’t see them as an alternative to paper currencies.
All of this happens on the same day in which the LTRO lent out another $800 billion, which is just ridiculous. These things always seem to happen, sort of counter-trend, that whenever you think something should go up, pretty well every time the price goes down. Because, the authorities don’t want a linkage between monetary irresponsibility and the price of precious metals going up. So they whack it on a day when it obviously should have gone up.”

This is exactly right and you should recall similar market action back in September when the Swiss National Bank devalued the Swissie by 10% yet gold inexplicably tumbled. Furthermore, the media SPIN on the selling of PMs back on Wednesday was that The Bernank had hinted at tightening. First of all, he did no such thing and any rational, objective person knows that he can't and won't "tighten" ever again. Additionally, if The Bernank had, in fact, indicated a change in monetary policy was coming , we would have seen correlated action in other, "liquidity-sensitive trades" such as copper...

the grains...

and/or stocks.

Then there was this week's CoT report. I summarized my thoughts in the comments section of the previous post but will re-print them here:

"Just looking over the latest CoT. Brutal! Remember, these numbers are basis Tuesday night, right after the big suck-in day but right before the big beat-down day.

Gold large spec long = 231,050 +16,707 on the week or +7.22%

Gold small spec long = 70,372 +3,949 on the week or +5.61%

Gold Cartel net short = 245,351 +16,049 on the week or +6.54%

Silver large spec long = 38,012 +3,193 on the week or+ 8.40%

Silver small spec long = 24,180 +1,696 on the week or +7.01%

Silver Cartel net short = 44,593 +5,405 on the week or+12.12%(!!!)

​It is 100% clear to me that the trap was set on Tuesday. Silver was allowed to escape to the upside in order to entice fresh longs who would be blown out on Wednesday.

I am very much looking forward to next Friday's CoT. If I am correct, then we should expect to see a significant reduction in the Cartel net short position in both silver and gold."

In fact, we already saw a significant reduction in OI on Wednesday and Thursday alone. Gold has already fallen by 22,000 contracts. This trend will no doubt continue today and through tomorrow.

The silver OI merits its own paragraph, though. At the close Monday, total silver OI was 113,306. After price was allowed to rise uncontrollably (up $1.62) on Tuesday in order to suck in a few extra longs before the planned attack on Wednesday, total OI was 115,866. By Thursday night, silver had been forced back down $1.53 and total OI was back to Monday levels at 113,669. As you know, silver was down $1.13 on Friday and we'll get Friday's closing OI numbers at about 2:30 this afternoon. I expect to see a drop in OI back toward 111,000.

Anyway, there is no doubt in my mind that the events of Wednesday were a 100%, coordinated and planned attack on the precious metals, consistent with the U.S. Federal Reserve policy of price suppression through managed ascent. From here, we must be alert for additional, follow-through attacks before we can declare a "bottom" and begin anew to aggressively buy.

Just a couple of housekeeping items before I take my leave. First, our Master of The Photoshop, "Pining", drew up this beauty back on Saturday. I like it so much I thought I should re-print it here. Pretty sure that's me in the middle along with Ned and Andy. Pretty cools stuff.

And our old pal, Jim Comiskey, has landed on his feet and is back up and running at ADM Investor Services in Chicago. He's even restarted his YouTube channel and you can find it here:

Way to go, Jim. Glad to have you back!

OK, that's all for now. Have a great day but stay alert for further Cartel attacks. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Be Prepared
Mar 5, 2012 - 4:21pm

Big Surprise... Greeks don't want their money in Greek Banks..

Summary Box: Greek bank deposits down sharply

BANK FLIGHT: Greece's finance minister said bank deposits in Greece have fallen by €70 billion ($92.5 billion) since the start of the crisis in 2009, a sign of the loss of confidence in the Greek economy.

THE DETAILS: Evangelos Venizelos said only €16 billion of the funds withdrawn was sent abroad. The rest is largely spent as families and businesses reduced their savings, or hoarded by households preparing for a Greek debt default.

THE OUTLOOK: Greece will learn what percentage of its private creditors will participate in a bond swap to reduce Greek debt, an integral part of Greece's second bailout without which the country could default as early as March 20, when it faces a €14.5 billion payment on a maturing bond.

Mar 5, 2012 - 4:21pm


Far be it from me to speak for Mr. Turd but I would guess one of the items in strata's rant that the big man (and I for that matter) had a problem with was the statement that, "Sinclair is a King World News pimp".

That's a pretty simplistic statement. Sinclair may indeed spend his weekend nights pimping out certain factions but I highly doubt that is the only enterprise he is involved in. I've been an avid reader of over the past year and have found a plethora of insight and knowledge not gleaned from anywhere else. Sinclair definitely offers more to the general public than just straight up pimpin' duties. Just because pimping may be more flamboyant is no reason to overlook everything else Sinclair has to offer.

And yes, he and Turk have been wrong. But so have I. So has Mr. Rogers. So have scientists. So has God. Inaccurate predictions are inherent in nature. Can't blame a pimp for that.


Mar 5, 2012 - 4:27pm

Finger in the air lecturing?

You're on my Block list. /Stick a finger in my face & I'll chew your arm off.

lamare TF
Mar 5, 2012 - 4:30pm

Re: boom, boom, boom, boom, boom, boom........

Don't worry about a war with Iran. It ain't gonna happen.

I know you probably consider David Wilcock as a crackpot, but he did publish a very interesting overview of events that happened in late 2010:

Ok, let's just pick a few interesting events:

Brand New UK Nuclear Submarine "HMS Astute" Loses Power, Runs Aground Off Scotland

10/23: 1/9th of US Missile Arsenal Taken Offline for One Hour

10/31: French Nuclear Aircraft Carrier Breaks Down Enroute to Persian Gulf

11/8: “Complete Coincidence” as Two Different Nuclear Plants Shut Down Within One Hour – New York and Vermont

11/9: Massive Missile Launch Occurs Off LA Coast, Still Unexplained 11/9/2007: Chinese Sub Appears in US Navy Exercise -- Huge Shock and Embarassment (Same Day as 2010 Missile)

And then consider this news:

Iran’s Alleged Drone Hack: Tough, but Possible

"On Thursday, the Christian Science Monitor published an interview with an Iranian engineer who claims that Iran managed to jam the drone’s communication links to American operators by forcing it to shift into autopilot mode. With its communications down, the drone allegedly kicked into autopilot mode, relying on GPS to fly back to base in Afghanistan. With the GPS autopilot on, the engineer claims Iran spoofed the drone’s GPS system with false coordinates, fooling it into thinking it was close to home and landing into Iran’s clutches."

What this means, IMHO, is the following:

What this last incident shows is that Iran and it's allies are capable of landing a drone, apparently by hacking the GPS system, which means they can also determine where any GPS guided missile will come down. In other words: firing missiles at Iran is totally useless.

What the other incidences show is that Iran's allies, particularly China and Russia, are capable of undetect launching of missiles from within a mile from the US beaches, probably from submarines. They are capable of positioning their submarines very close to NATO ships unseen and they can remotely power down complete battleships as well as submarines, probably by disabling their computer systems. And last but not least, they are capable of switching down the "US Missile Arsenal" at will.

Ya really think the US military and/or Israeli military come even close to having a chance of actually bombing Iran?

I don't think so....

Mar 5, 2012 - 4:32pm

Debating about

which candidate or party is better than the other...

Is like arguing who is more real - The EasterBunny or SantaClaus.


- Its a no pointer... its all lies and f**kin bulshit.


We are NOT hitting the head on the nail...



Mar 5, 2012 - 4:38pm

Mod Jane

Nicely said

It's hard to understand sometimes what some posters feel they'll gain by questioning and barbing the very person who makes it possible for this site to exist. We have the ability to express ourselves on many, many different subjects other then to critique TF and his guests or the Mods themselves. The sarcasm towards TF and the site is meaningless and actually puts the spotlight on the poster. Attention seeking or no tact?

It's his site and he gave his opinion. When I'm in someone else's 'house' I would never consider giving the host a hard time or call him out with sarcasm. Cyber anonymity allows many things. Tact is not one of them sometimes.

Why are we even having a left/right/wrong debate? They all suck.

Mar 5, 2012 - 4:46pm

Front Page

With Allen Barton

Ron Paul thinks that the Federal Reserve will eventually self-destruct. Is this an actual possibility, or just campaign hyperbole? Find out as Allen Barton, Terry Jones and Yaron Brook discuss QE3 and the Fed, in addition to the Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bailouts.

I Run Bartertown
Mar 5, 2012 - 5:04pm


Kumbaya, or whatever,


When so many here have acknowledged, so many times,

that this nation is facing a high likelihood of civil dischord and significant violence,

if not the collectivist, big .gov power-graspers (creatures of the Left) and their violent, dependent pets,

WHO is it exactly that would need to be fought?

If you have so much love for the other side, who is all the ammo for?

Just askin'.

For clarity, I'm talking ideology, not politicians. They're scum all around, and pretty much just all different shades of Left-wing, with the exception of Ron Paul.

silver foil hat lamare
Mar 5, 2012 - 5:08pm

lamare re: 11/9/2007

I actually put the original pieces together within days of this 'event' with sources I found on the kitco forums (this was before I found the Turd) and from some information I read from Daystar's kitco posts at the time. Never posted my theory on kitco (dang 7 day waiting period... thought someone else could figger it out, but guess not) but I did tell everyone I knew what I discovered at the time... from information found on the net through research.

There was an immediate explanation.... until the LSM repeaters were told to kill the story.

edit: I was debating whether or not to bring this up again as I am probably as healthy as Brietbart was a few weeks ago when he made his speech, and this original post was made well before NDAA. So I will now say the original post was a work of fiction, and any resemblance to actual events is strictly coincidence.

I guess we all need to be more careful.

We've been warned today by the dear leader not to speak about Iran. Just a heads up.

Mar 5, 2012 - 5:11pm


Don't you just love that type of response to a simple, erudite question?

BTW - The up-pointing finger is a device DaVinci used in many subjects. Look it up.

Haole Guy
Mar 5, 2012 - 5:33pm

My 2 Cents

Hi, I've been following this community since 8/11 and this is my first post. I hope I can add something positive to the site.

I have to say that I am enjoying the discussion of stacking vs. trading very much. I am of like mind with some on this site, and do both trading and stacking. I have a core physical position that I add to by scanning craigslist and ebay for deals. I hit up estate auctions and buy from a local dealer. I also go to garage sails and I coin roll hunt. I do this to add to my physical position and I never sell from this hoard. I usually can by at a discount to what the spot is doing these activities. The best is when I can get .900 silver at face value. I've received 2 .900 silver dimes as change already this year. I try to stack as cheaply as possible.

When trading strikes my mood I use my account with bullion direct and keep a decent amount of oz on hand with them. They are a reputable company and have cheap fees. They also have an easy to use exchange that makes your portfolio very liquid. I've been pretty successful trading these last dips. When I really started to understand the deception of the Federal Reserve and the importance of Constitutional money in December of 2010 I did not have an understanding of the how the markets moved. I just practiced a buy and hold strategy. As a result I bought instead of sold @ the peak. I bought 30 Austrian Philharmonics and paid about $50 each. I should have sold the 80 ounces I averaged at $34 at that time and bought back more on the dip. This was a learning experience for me as I suspect this last run was for some of our friends here. The important thing is I've been buying dips ever since and selling the on or near the peaks. The Turd is right this requires patience! In my opinion the third leg of the three tier waterfall is forming here at $34. I'm going to hold off a min or two. I sold 2 10 oz bars last night for 355 - 3.55 commission and I bought 1 back today @ $338.46. It would be nice to buy the other back @ $330 or $325. I originally paid $343 for the bars I sold for $351.45. So I made money on the sale and bought 10 oz back for $5 less than what I originally paid. I wish I new that last year around this time.

I've also opened an account with Bullion Vault on the recommendation of some of the community here. I like the free gram of silver, but I'm not used to trading in grams. It seems like BV will take some getting used to. If anyone has any advice I would appreciate your wisdom.

Turd I have to give you props on some of your stock picks! I'm going to be pulling the trigger on these stocks in the near future.




The only thing I'm holding off on the miners for is I'm really interested in SLV options right now. I have to agree with some in the community that the June 16 calls for $33 strike will be in the money. I just requested the ability to trade options on my etrade account. I'm a little disappointed that I didn't have this capability today because the SLV was below $33. It would be nice if some of the more experienced traders could discuss some of the finer details of trading SLV options. To sum it up, I'm not trying to trade options on leverage I just want to take a percentage of the money I would spend on stacking and risk it to earn a little extra fiat!

Thanks for all you do here Turd! I've learned more from you than I've learned in college! haha

Mar 5, 2012 - 5:37pm

May as well get this off my chest as well

I am a mere “stacker”, not a “trader” (and I’m eternally grateful to the people here who disabused any thoughts I may have had about “getting my feet wet” when I first joined this site). I may someday choose to join the risk takers on this site, as my education continues daily, due to the insights/knowledge of TF and others (after all I do like to “play the ponies”:)

Even though I’m not a “trader”, I look forward to becoming a “subscriber” to TFMR
simply as my way of “feeding the Turd” on a regular schedule.

I try to make a meager contribution to this site through my interests in politics, and the humor necessary to view them, lest I tear out my hair taking them (politics) at “face value”.

If you find my “contributions” or my political leanings not to your liking please IM me and I’ll explain how to “scroll past them”.

Long live TFMR

Mar 5, 2012 - 6:51pm

Jim Sinclair

For those of you who value the insights of a very fine man, listen in to this Q&A. It's well worth the time.

Obviously, I'm in the camp that values what JS has to say. ;)

On currency-induced, cost-push inflation: Sinclair has been warning about this for a while now and sometimes makes it seem a bit mysterious. It's not. It just means that imported factors begin to increase in cost as the dollar loses value, people begin to notice the price increases and in order to stay ahead of this inflation, their inflation expectations begin to rise. Even if inflation is 6%, they believe that to stay ahead prices have to be increased by a higher amount, say 8%. Then the inflation just starts feeding on itself as the price hikes work their way through the economy, which in turn only make expectations go higher and higher and it becomes a vicious cycle. We saw this in the 70s when the US had inflation at over 14% after we went off the gold standard. Nothing mysterious about it. Of course, those who are able to raise their prices first usually end up being winners in this game. Those who can't raise prices early on, or can't raise their income, end up losing big time.

The Vet Haole Guy
Mar 5, 2012 - 7:08pm

Haole Guy - BullionVault

is running a trial to display all metal prices and place orders in ounces. They are converted to grams and kilograms on execution but if you prefer to look at the prices in troy ounces and place orders in ounces it works for me. If you only got a free gram of silver then you got short changed. I got a free gram of gold when I opened my account... That's is $55 at present prices....

Mar 5, 2012 - 9:12pm

Following the hijack of this thread

Left/Right don't mean anything to me. Most people would probably peg me for a leftist until I started talking about economics. Many would peg me as a rightist until I started talking about America's military fetish and the myth of the rule of law.

I am a kindergartenist. I happen to believe the moral code I was taught in kindergarten was pretty good:

  • Don't lie
  • Don't hit people
  • Don't take people's stuff

The problem is after they teach us that as a child the next 12 to 18 years is filled with all the exceptions.

  • Don't lie, unless it is for national security or because the truth is too uncomfortable to face.
  • Don't hit people (or kill them), unless you have a special outfit and they are evildoers.
  • Don't take peoples stuff, unless you are going to use it to buy votes... er, ah, help poor people... or unless you need the money to pay for killing evildoers.

Morality only matters if it applies to everyone. When there is one set of rules for the leaders and another set for the led, that is not morality, it is indoctrination. When the office one holds or the uniform one wears no longer exempts a person from the rules we all must follow we can start talking about ideology. Till then you are either one of those who just want to be left alone or one of those who just won't leave them alone.* If you're in the second group and feel you are entitled to tell me how to live my life you are not my friend.

*nod toward Ernie Hancock

Mar 5, 2012 - 9:36pm

Haole Guy

Congrats on becoming a Turd!


Gold Five
Mar 5, 2012 - 10:55pm

Equal opportunity offender

Even though I'm a libertarian, here's a video poking fun at libertarians to help keep things fair and balanced:

Haole Guy The Vet
Mar 5, 2012 - 11:07pm

yah it was a free gram of gold

Yah my mistake it was a free gram of gold

Mar 6, 2012 - 3:22am

cute 1 gram gold flakes

€ 2.260 50x 1g


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Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

3/26 8:30 ET Housing Starts (Feb)
3/27 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Jan)
3/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP final guess
3/28 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Personal Income (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Consumer Spending and Core Infl. (Jan)
3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
3/29 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Feb)

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