Quick Update

136
Fri, Jul 22, 2011 - 10:41am

 With the metals moving so nicely this morning, I figured I'd better give you some levels to watch.

First up, gold looks stronger than mustard gas again as it looks to be ready to tackle the highs from overnight Tuesday. Needless to say, a close through and above 1610 would be a very positive development for next week. Silver is similar. I have a last of 40.17 and, though it may run into some selling between 40.30 and 40.40, looks poised to tackle 41. Keep in mind, Fridays on the Globex have been very good to us lately. The metals have consistently added gains after the close, primarily in response to the release of the weekly CoT numbers. Why should today be any different? Though silver may only creep higher during the Comex hours, do not be surprised if it adds to its gains this afternoon and finishes the week somewhere near the highs of Tuesday. (Disclaimer: Of course, if the Republocrats and O'bottom announce some BS debt ceiling deal, all bets are off for today. As we've seen twice this week, once WOPR takes over, you can throw the fundos and TA out the window.)

paper_7-22amgold.jpgpaper_7-22amsilv.jpg

Lastly, here's an updated chart of Pigatha. Yesterday's action did some serious damage to the short-term bull position. Again, a declining dollar will almost always help support the PMs.

paper_7-22ampig.jpg

That's it for now. I hope to have more for you this afternoon. TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  136 Comments

Exergy
Jul 22, 2011 - 2:36pm

A summary of the case for PHYSICAL

@ ggnewmex bingo!!

here is what I see as the reasons for owning silver and gold... in physical form

Now just picture what happens FROM INDUSTRIAL demand alone if/when the comex is dry and "defaults on delivery in some way"... and all the REAL silver users futures contracts disappear (they buy to lock in supply costs)..... and their firms NEED metal to stay open and MUST find a guaranteed supply (cell phone makers, solar panel's, film, medical etc etc)...can you say panic and rising prices...remember they MUST have physical silver to stay in business and will only try to hoard more of it in a quickly rising market....driving prices up even faster.

AND

What happens when physical demand outstrips supply (forecast within 24 months)...with real mine production falling

Then

Add in all the new investment demand from the financial foolishness we see globally (debt, CDS, derivatives, insolvency, sovereign default, economic fear in all forms)

Then

Add in the NEW demand from Central banks...then commercial banks...then investment funds as they wake up to face inflation and weakening currencies and real debt risk in their sovereign treasury bonds.

Then

Add in a falling POSX

Then

Add in the new demand that will come when gold is recognized shortly as a TIER 1 asset (the safest asset possible on a banks balance sheet) 

Then

Add in the NEW demand from the new Asian exchanges and billions of Chinese who don't trust their government and will buy fully backed bullion mini contracts of gold and silver instead of leaving their Yuan in a government bank

Then

add in the reaction from anyone who finally discovers they are one of the 99 out of 100 silver "owners" who really has paper silver or unbacked silver (remember..bullion banks leverage bullion 100:1)

Finally

Factor in the traditional 15:1 gold silver ratio with gold currently at 1600 and forecast to go to 3000 to 12500

Lastly....

anything else like a natural disaster, major event, assassination etc etc... that increases FEAR in the markets and/or currencies

On the flip side...PM's will crash if

1-politicians balance budgets and tell voters they can't have all the programs they have grown to love and depend upon.

2-Banks stop leveraging things and dreaming up new products to further scam folks and stop exposing their assets to undue risk and go back to 'conservative" and responsible practices.

3-a new technology makes silver and gold easy to produce cheaply and the are no longer rare

...and of course if my aunt had a penis.... she'd be my uncle

Got physical?

ewc58
Jul 22, 2011 - 2:42pm

Yooper

Thanks mate. I'll be back soon but think I'm feeling a bit too fired up & ornery for The Good Book today. Today is a day for swordplay. Parry and thrust!

Save me a good seat in case I calm down :-0)

DeltaCharlie
Jul 22, 2011 - 2:42pm

Lindsey Williams Prediction - The US will default?

When I first heard this Lindsay William talk, I didn't take what he said too seriously.... but I'm taking notice after some of things he's said about oil prices has been remarkably prescient.

In this clip on Alex Jones, Lindsay mentioned that his sources told him that Washington will default on its debt. As get closer to the deadline of Aug 2, and really, it's earlier if it is to be drafted and signed (which is today July 22), then Lindsay may yet be once again correct.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5hKd4-Rl2Q&feature=player_embedded&list=PL9596AFEE95024AF7

Washington is really cutting it fine... We'll know in the next hour! If there's no decision before the trading days ends, I can see gold/silver pop up. 

Terabyte
Jul 22, 2011 - 2:46pm

Gold Certificates

Newbe here... you can tell from the question. Can someone tell me where one would go to redeem a gold certificate? A reliable place. Thanks

Turd, you old hide..... thanks a lot for what you do here. And the site you furnish. I've learned a lot here in the past three or four months and still feel like a first grader. But at least, it's been enough for me to start stacking. Thanks again.


Jul 22, 2011 - 2:49pm

@ Fried E... Coinage, dude!

Ha! I do the same thing and always get excited, then bummed out, when I get the old 1965's- and there seems to be a ton of those out there. They look just old enough to get you hoping. It is really quite bizarre if you think about it- we are checking to see see if we accidentally recieved ACTUAL money rather than the normal, fake money. Strange times...

Yooper Rick
Jul 22, 2011 - 2:49pm

ewc...saving you a seat for

ewc...saving you a seat for sure mate. Later.

recaptureamerica
Jul 22, 2011 - 2:51pm

KStwister, as far as i know,

KStwister, as far as i know, a gold certificate is not exchangeable for gold anymore. it might be worth alot more than face value as a relic, but since we no longer are on a gold standard, i dont think its exchangeable. i might be wrong

Shill
Jul 22, 2011 - 2:57pm

Tell me folks

Now tell me folks, where does it state the president has a right to raise the debt ceiling in this section? It doesn't! And if he chooses to do so HE SHALL AND SHOULD BE IMPEACHED AS PER THE LAW OF THIS LAND.

Section 4. The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.

Just clearing this noise up once and for all!

Terabyte
Jul 22, 2011 - 3:01pm

@ recaptureamerica

Thanks. Had a suspicion. Checking for a friend.

Violent Rhetoric Shill
Jul 22, 2011 - 3:03pm

Now tell me folks, where does

Now tell me folks, where does it state the president has a right to raise the debt ceiling in this section?

I'm pretty sure this is covered in the "living/breathing" document section.

Tesla
Jul 22, 2011 - 3:07pm
TexAsh DeltaCharlie
Jul 22, 2011 - 3:10pm

PMs to go up no matter what

to: DeltaCharlie:

PM's will go up whether or not they raise the debt ceiling.

  • If they don't, default fear will drive prices up.
  • If they do, inflation fear will drive prices up.

Now some smarty-boots on this Web space will say that the hint of a possible agreement on Tuesday brought prices down. I disagree. I think the EE timed their raid to coincide with a faux announcement as a convenient excuse.

Economical Disaster Shill
Jul 22, 2011 - 3:16pm

where does it state the

where does it state the president has a right to raise the debt ceiling in this section?

Didn't Bush state that the constitution is not worth the paper its written on, or something to that effect? All laws have changed to "NO LAWS", its every man for himself these days.

Teach
Jul 22, 2011 - 3:21pm

Oslo

Please take the time to say a prayer (in whichever tongue or faith works best for you) for the people in Norway.

SilverWealth
Jul 22, 2011 - 3:23pm

Al Quaeda has infiltrated the Eskimo colonies

No doubt that a 6'2" blonde Eskimo Al Qaeda Jihadist is responsible for the shootings in Norway. And witnesses say they saw at least 1 dozen penguins working in the underground sewage beneath the Norwegian government building planting plastic explosive. Danny De Vito was spotted amongst them.

DeltaCharlie TexAsh
Jul 22, 2011 - 3:24pm

PMs to go up no matter what

I wholeheartedly agree with that rationale -- it's plain to see for those who understand gold and silver, but the markets are NOT rationale. 

It's interesting to observe that almost everyone thinks Washington will raise the debt ceiling... it'll be a surprise to all if it doesn't. This will drive up gold/silver much quicker and in a much shorter timeframe. If they cut a deal at the final hour - I anticipate a quick (and maybe a steep) drop in gold/silver prices, only to go up just as quick over days (but I view this as the longer route). 

This market is just crazy, difficult to trade... I'm glued to my monitor tick by tick. :)

Shill
Jul 22, 2011 - 3:29pm

Ladies and Gents

Osama Bin Penguin is dead! I repeat Osama Bin Penguin is dead.

......................................

DeltaCharlie
Jul 22, 2011 - 3:31pm
Baxter Bentley
Jul 22, 2011 - 3:38pm

*yawn* Can we hurry this U.S.

*yawn*

Can we hurry this U.S. default/dollar collapse along a bit? I've got apartments, farms, commercial real estate, cheap oil futures, and a house in Marin county I'm waiting to purchase...

Rui
Jul 22, 2011 - 3:42pm

COT for the week is out

EE was still piling on the shorts in both gold and silver. Not a good sign in the short run.

COT Jul 22

Boswell
Jul 22, 2011 - 3:46pm

Lindsey Williams...

Doesn't "predict" anything, he is merely relaying what he is told by the "elites" he is friends with.

uptofreedom
Jul 22, 2011 - 3:51pm

Oanda's spread on silver

Oanda's spread on silver jumped to 15 cents. Not sure when exactly but it wasn't that high earlier today... anyone know what's up with that?

Baxter Bentley
Jul 22, 2011 - 3:51pm

With all this talk about

With all this talk about raising the debt ceiling, I think we've forgotten how important is it to... RAISE THE ROOF!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sT_78skgs9k

ewc58
Jul 22, 2011 - 4:12pm
Shill
Jul 22, 2011 - 4:17pm
TheGoodDoctor Shill
Jul 22, 2011 - 4:21pm

Wow that was fast. Bob must

Wow that was fast. Bob must be doing radio shows all day. Right from AJ to this! Love me some Bob Chapman!

TheGoodDoctor
Jul 22, 2011 - 4:23pm

Bob Chapman calling for a big

Bob Chapman calling for a big move up in silver on Monday.

Shill
Jul 22, 2011 - 4:32pm

Smart man

That Bob Chapman is. Many would be wise to listen to him.

I thanked this man personally for giving me my eyes back in the day. I stumbled upon him in a botched Google search if you can believe. :)

+1 Google for Bob Chapman

ewc58
Jul 22, 2011 - 4:35pm

What I do realize

is blatant Islamophobia when it rears its ugly head. And it has no place here Vypuero. Shame on you.

Vypuero
Jul 22, 2011 - 4:44pm

Bullshit

Reality is Reality. Believe what they say and what they do. Read up on what is happening in Europe. That is not phobia any more than there was Nazi phobia in the 1930s. Read Mark Steyn.

P.S. - I don't want to argue this here so please do the same, you can go to the current events threads but I don't feel like arguing these subjects on this board.

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