Ramblings - Let's Talk Dollar, Gold, Silver, Crude and Freedom

Thu, Feb 9, 2012 - 12:40pm

One of the major challenges in compiling and writing this website every day is in keeping it all coherent. Since I am currently only able to offer one or two threads per day, I struggle to include all that I feel is pertinent into one, tidy and neat little package. Today is particularly challenging in this regard. Please bear with me.

So, where do we start? How about this? As you know, my Lind/MF account was transferred to RJObrien back in November and the charts I use every day come from the RJO website. When I open the charts window, the default screen is a chart of the ES, which is the heavily-traded, mini S&P futures contract. Every day, I have to look at this silly chart and, every day, it makes me want to puke. Of course, there's nothing to see here. No. The Fed, through the Primary Dealers, isn't slowly goosing the market higher. Of course not. Rrrright... What kills me is the horseshit nonsense that is constantly peddled be the media and the paid, disinformation agents of the blogosphere. Equities can rally 20% in 10 weeks. No "bubble". Not "overbought". Never. However, you get one little sustained move in the PMs, even against constant Cartel suppression, and every deltabravo shill from Christian to Nadler comes out of the woodwork to defame them.



Next, let's talk about the U.S. dollar index or, as we affectionately call it around here, The POSX (or The Pig or Pigatha). While it's true that The Pig is, roughly, flat year-over-year while gold is up 25%, DO NOT discount the impact that moves in the index have upon the daily fluctuations in PM price. This has always been the case but it is especially pronounced here in 2012. In the post-MFG world we now inhabit, the paper metal trade is dominated by The Cartels on one side and HighFrequencyTrading computer programs (WOPRs) on the other and most WOPRs are programmed to buy or sell precious metals based upon minute movements on the POSX. So, what we have are PM "markets" that are subject to wild gyrations based not upon their own fundamentals but, instead, the fluctuations in the dollar brought about by ever-changing headlines out of Europe and the Middle East.

Below are charts of The Pig. First, there's a refresher on the makeup of the POSX. Remember, the POSX is an index. This means that it is a measurement of dollar strength against a "basket" of other currencies. As you can see below, though, the primary component is the euro so big moves in the EURUSD have a disproportionate impact on the POSX.


The Pig has been desperately trying to stay above 78.50 for the past two days. Will it hold in there again today? Answer that question and you'll go a long ways toward predicting the next move in PM price.


Below are your PM charts. As you can see, gold is still being suppressed below 1750-55. Silver, however, continues to show some real strength and I'm getting increasingly enthusiastic that it is about to break higher and race off toward 35 and 35.50.


As we wrap up the "chart section", here are a couple of looks at crude. Study these for a moment because there are some headlines below that will be affecting the fundamentals of this market soon.


Now, onto those headlines.

It certainly appears that the U.S., NATO, Israel and Iran have all come to the conclusion that conflict, or outright war, is inevitable. Maybe someday soon we can discuss the unpredictable, geo-political, economic and biblical implications of all of this. For now, you should at least be considering how to prepare yourself financially for what seems to be coming over the horizon. Some of you will undoubtedly buy some crude oil futures or options but I know that most of you don't fiddle around with that stuff. My friend Mister Hyde trades the UCO, which is a 2X long crude oil ETF. It's probably not something anyone should sink big bucks into but, if the world is going to end, you might as well go out with a little extra fiat in your pocket.







And Syria is all part of the equation.



I could keep posting headlines but I think you get the point.

The metals have pushed higher today because of dollar weakness brought about by headlines of an impending Greek "deal". If the recent pattern holds, look for these headlines to be refuted by later today.



As expected and right on cue, there's this:


Many have asked what I think will ultimately happen here. (Keep in mind that I'm the guy who thought that S&P would never downgrade U.S. debt.) To me, it's quite clear after Santa filled in the missing pieces last week.


This is all about the word default. On March 20, the Greek government faces a 14.5 billion euro debt payment. Currently, they are unable to make this payment. If they miss this payment, they will be in default. No ifs, ands or buts about it. Regardless of how someone might attempt to spin it, missing your payments is a default. End of story. From Merriam-Webster:

Definition of DEFAULT
1 : failure to do something required by duty or law : neglect
2 : a failure to pay financial debts

If a "deal" is not struck before 3/20/12, Greece will be in default. As Santa has alerted us, a Greek default will trigger a payable event for the Credit Default Swaps issued on Greek debt and 97% of the Greek CDS were sold by the Big 5 U.S. banks. I HIGHLY DOUBT that this triggering event will be allowed to take place. Sometime in the next 5 weeks, A DEAL WILL BE STRUCK which restructures the Greek debt and avoids "default". The impact will be very much precious metal positive long-term. Why?

  • A large proportion of the Greek bondholders are European governments and European banks. The "haircut" that the bondholders will be required to take will stress the already-underfunded balance sheets of many of these entities. So cash must be created to shore up these balance sheets. However, by charter, the ECB cannot simply print money from whole cloth like the U.S. Federal Reserve. Can you say LTRO to infinity?
  • But LTRO will not be enough. The IMF will also be used to funnel dollars to European banks and governments, too, and from where does the IMF get most of its funding? The U.S., of course! Can you say QE to infinity?
  • If, on the off chance, a deal is not struck and the Big 5 TBTF banks get put "on the hook" for billions in CDS, the FED will simply create the funds necessary for the banks to slide to Europe.
  • The final bullet point is EXACTLY what The Fed did in 2008. Recall that, back then, AIG was the issuer of billions of CDS. When the underlying financial instruments (CMOs, CDOs, etc) went into default, AIG was on the hook for billions that they didn't have and the TBTF bank balance sheets were insolvent without the CDS "insurance". What happened? The U.S. government took over AIG and settled the outstanding CDS debt by having the Fed print money to be funneled to the TBTF banks.

    Ultimately, the only question is: Who is going to be stuck with the losses that the Fed will paper over? In the end, it doesn't really matter. The Fed will print dollars to soothe the crisis. These dollars will be sent to Europe either directly, through the IMF and ECB, or indirectly through the CDS payoffs by the TBTF banks. Billions....maybe even trillions...of new greenback is about to be created. The only protection you have against the purchasing power destruction of this event is to buy and hold physical gold and silver.

    I feel I must take a moment to touch upon the "robo-signing" settlement, too.


    Lest you think otherwise, all this "settlement" represents is covert QE for the bankrupt states of the U.S. The banks, which will be forced to shell out the $26B, clearly do not have the funds to do so. From where will the money come? The Fed, of course! As they have for 3+ years now, The Fed will simply journal over $26B in newly-printed dollars for the TBTF banks to distribute to the states. Only a fraction of this money will ever reach the homeowners who were screwed out of there foreclosed homes. The states will simply include these settlement dollars in their "general accounts" and use the proceeds to cover their varying budget shortfalls. It is all just a gigantic scam constructed as a way to covertly give the states the money they so desperately crave.

    Lastly, I find myself spending more and more time considering and discussing the ever-encroaching powers of The State. In ways both large (SOPA and NDAA) and small (The Catholic Church vs Obamacare), American freedoms are being constantly nibbled away by the government piranha. It is also happening at the local level as the story below shows. The American nanny-state is now so expansive and inhibiting that children in California are no longer able to dig holes in the sand at the beach. Sadly, it is likely too late to reverse this tide of government intrusion upon the most basic and miniscule components of your daily life.


    That's all for today. I've been banging away here for almost 3 hours and it's time to get on with my life. As I close, I see that the metals have barely budged while I've been at it so at least I haven't missed much. Watch out for volatility though this afternoon and overnight. Not only will the headlines be moving The Pig around but The Cartels would very much like to see silver under 34 and gold under 1750 at the Comex close tomorrow.

    Keep the faith. TF

    About the Author

    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
    Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
    Total votes: 137


    Mickey · Feb 9, 2012 - 3:44pm

    Just remember

    gold (and silver) is the adversary to government financial control. As we are the drivers in that. Been that way will be that way.

    I'll take the 17% average appreciation every fricking year.

    LOUP-GAROU · Feb 9, 2012 - 3:59pm


    The only bubble that I see popping anytime soon is the bubble between warren obama buffets ears! Our #1 in charge puts him so high on a pedestal that he has to have o2 therapy! sorry for the rant but that man brings out the LOUP- GAROU in me!

    Blue Sky · Feb 9, 2012 - 3:59pm

    What I noticed.

    This morning somebody mentioned that as soon as POSX hit 78.40 it would be a shot in the arm for gold. I think it lasted for one second at 78.39 and immediately shot up to 78.55 with the resulting carnage to gold. I had a nice profit in my Sandstorm Gold commons and warrants and felt unable to combat the terrorists on such an uneven playing field so I sold a portion of each. I still have lots of shares but wasn't about to take any chances. They are still up there but I feel I've bought a little time and need to pay off some bills.

    BTW thanks for the miner survey Turd. The only one I have is Silvercrest which is awesome as is Sandstorm.

    When the waters are this choppy it's time to lighten up a bit. Keep your friends close but above all respect and never underestimate your enemies.

    punchbowl · Feb 9, 2012 - 3:59pm

    Buffett and Cramer and Soros and co.

    Having Buffett, Cramer, Soros and their ilk dissing PM gives me solace and confidence. When these guys start pumping PM's watchout, you have about 72 hours to get out of the way.

    Eric Original · Feb 9, 2012 - 4:02pm


    Pull up a lawn chair and let's crack open a couple of beers....

    lairdwd · Feb 9, 2012 - 4:05pm

    Breakout after equites close?

    Like I said, I doubt it was any coincidence the crimex boys popped it up right before the 9:30 open, set a nice bull trap, and now they cover after the close. Let's see if this holds true. When I say "breakout" , I'm talking 1735 and 34. The had the algos on during the 2PM to 4PM session big time, then they turn them off? WTF?? 

    ¤ · Feb 9, 2012 - 4:08pm


    Thanks...just logged back in and saw your comments. Excellent analysis as usual.

     I've thought for a long time that there's no way they would ban or suspend short selling because so many people, for so many years have made fortunes from shorting the markets. It would probably take a remarkable circumstance for short selling in the US to be banned or severely curtailed. 

    The biggest thing in my mind that big companies and sovereigns do not want is asset deflation because that means less value or possible collateral that's available for them to transact business with. If they gradually or suddenly institute a short selling ban that would enable corporations to achieve higher market caps via higher share prices which would give them more collateral to borrow against or swap etc.

    I'm assuming that a short selling ban would drastically effect the share price of a heavily or medium shorted company to the upside. Am I way off in that basic scenario of what short selling would do to the share price of a company and ultimately it's market cap value?

    The other part I mentioned about market cap/collateral ratio and the increased need for it are a separate thought train altogether but it hinges on short selling as a means of quickly boosting a companies value in a extraordinary market or economic circumstances. I can't help but think it might be possible as I keep reading of many large companies buying back their stock while they have the opportunity of a borrowing lifetime due to ZIRP and the means to do so.

     If we melt-up at some point then the corporate buy backs and holding onto record amounts of cheap cash will make sense as their corporations value's melt up and they hold lots of shares in the balance.

    Just some ideal thoughts.

    FriedEggs · Feb 9, 2012 - 4:10pm

    I'm too busy

    mad and frustrated - to rejoice. 


    This is a bitter/sweet scenario. I have 95% of family/friends completely clued out...even worse - refusing to accept the information presented to them.

    My decision making - my whole life - was based on lies. How can one not be pissed?



    Lumpy · Feb 9, 2012 - 4:12pm

    A few thoughts on the dollar index.

    The pig/dollar/POSX desperately trying to stay above 78.50 for the last two days.

    The dollar was at 78.43 in mid 1992 according to this chart. 9/30/92 U.S. debt was $4,064,620,665,521.66 I looked it up, but you can double check me.

    Today $15.3 Trillion. and the dollar index is around 78.50

    So the dollar index represents WHAT EXACTLY????

    The dollar index is made up of a basket of currencies of ONLY our ALLIES. 

    China/Russia/Iran I like to call them "The other EE" are not invited. Not allowed to be part of our BULLSHIT DELUSIONARY PURE PROPAGANDA WORTHLESS INDEX.

    Can someone explain to me WHY the World gives this Index any consideration at all?

    Don't have to answer that one. I know it's the World Reserve Currency. Plus there is no ALTERNATIVE to it. So we are going to pretend that it actually means something until....... China/Russia decides that Their EE armed with Nukes is ready to challenge our EE armed with Nukes.

    If everybody is dead then nobody wins. So maybe some secret negotiations with CHINA/RUSSIA/Saudi Arabia/Iraq maybe even Japan could prompt a new BRETTON WOODS style "conversation" informing our EE that the game is OVER.

    Okay so maybe I'm living in my own little fantasy world here, but it works for me.

    Why would the "ELITE" want to live in a nuked wasteland to protect their system. Not really worth it.

    Dr Durden · Feb 9, 2012 - 4:14pm

    I like it

    Looks like a nice bull flag in gold. Look at the daily when gold first hit the $1600 area. Very similar chart pattern less the volatility. I'd expect a punch to $1800 pretty quickly unless we get a close below $1712 or so.

    ¤ · Feb 9, 2012 - 4:23pm

    and to continue.....

    I stated the following earlier regarding big bro and the micro-management or surveillance that seems to be in place across societies spectrum.

    "We seem to be on a pre-war footing regarding information surveillance and identification of sources imo."

    I lost sight of the simple fact because it's become part of the new normal. We've been at war ( duh! blush) for about 10 years at this point so it 's almost easy to forget that obvious fact, but I was alluding to any upcoming war that we suspect is coming as far as my pre-war comment goes.

    So, I'll restate it as such......."We are on a war footing regarding information surveillance and identification of sources of potential adversaries"

    They've redefined the word adversary and created law to establish it's new meaning.


    Be Prepared · Feb 9, 2012 - 4:26pm

    The Motion of the Ocean

    As usual, Cali Lawyer has many great things to say with the right perspective and spirit to help guide us on our way....

    I know Smiddy and others believe that there is a more imminent demise of the American system and that we could see this collapse this year.... I believe they, TPTB, have more ammo in their can and will progressively bring it to bear. They can do this because most of our fellow Americans are asleep.... they wouldn't be able to pull off this slow demise if more of us were vigilant and holding their feet to the fire..

    Come on..... $25 billion Settlement for the raping and pillaging of American...... they robbed, stole, lied and committed fraud on an unprecedented level and absolutely no one is going to do a perp walk.... Oh, by the way, here's $2,000 for ya... this is all we going to give ya for lying to the courts to get you out of your house.... what the f%ck? Oh, it will take them 3 years to give this money out... wow, they will have raped the Taxpayer for this amount and more by this time so it will cost them absolutely nothing to settle their criminal acts. This $25 billion is a mere fraction of the money we gave them... to prop them up.... to save their a$$ and this is what comes from all this destruction...

    Eric Folder has done fewer prosecutions in the financial sector than Bush...... There are no screams in the street and, if you were to try, a new file would be added to your national I.D. with a new label.... terrorist!

    The Long view is the important view here.... managing your understanding against a steady timeframe to prepare. This is not a time to be reactionary and run without your head fully intact and squared away. Make your way through all this turmoil riding the Motion of the Ocean and try not letting the Tsunami drown you so that you can make it to dry land.

    The Vet · Feb 9, 2012 - 4:27pm

    On dollar value...

    It is always worth keeping a watch on the Australian dollar vs the USD as a more independent measure of the POSX ratio. While it's a smaller economy its dollar is rarely manipulated in the market by the government or the Australian central bank (The RBA). It is not part of the USD index and so trades somewhat independently of the index (not entirely however some of the mindless bots do play a programmed trade that relies on a simple converse relationship). The Aussie dollar does follow China's economic fortunes and commodity prices, but it does have some independence simply because it is not a part of the POSX, unlike the CAD, YEN, Pound or Euro. Aussie official interest rates are significantly higher than most other developed countries, and the government debt is modest in comparison with most others.

    BagOfGold Eric Original · Feb 9, 2012 - 4:44pm

    Eric O...

    Pull up a lawn chair and let's crack open a couple of beers....

    Should we tell everyone...that the drinks are on you...over at The Speak?!?...

    Bag Of Gold

    BagOfGold FriedEggs · Feb 9, 2012 - 4:46pm


    If you listen to the series of The Greatest Truth NEVER Told...which DPH has posted numerous times...it my offer some solace...& by finding freedom within yourself...then you may truly help others!...

    The Greatest Truth Never Told

    Please don't be so hard on yourself...direct your energy towards positive outcomes!!!...

    Bag Of Gold

    Bungalow_Joe · Feb 9, 2012 - 4:49pm

    @ FriedEggs -- understood

    You wrote: "I have 95% of family/friends completely clued out...even worse - refusing to accept the information presented to them."

    I recently tried to have a conversation with a guy who has been a good friend since middle school -- we're talking "forever". I keep attempting to help him and his wife open their eyes. I email articles pertaining to everything from the Federal Reserve and it's role in our country's fiscal crisis to congressional atrocities like ENDA and SOPA. Then, I get these responses of concern about my mental health -- along with the strongest assurances that we live in the greatest country on earth and that our kids and grandkids will always have a guaranteed future in America. It is very, very frustrating and depressing. There is complete, over the top normalcy bias to the extreme. I know others have written on this blog that they've given up on trying to help others. But, I give it a year tops before a much larger percentage of Americans will start combing the net to find a blog like this one because they just "know" things just don't pass the "sniff test". One can hope...and we can also hope free speech still exists.

    Meanwhile, this is an article to pass on to anyone who might be open to learning more about the Federal Reserve (we're talking friends who don't read this blog).

    Ten Things That Every American Should Know About the Federal Reserve


    BASEBALL 13 · Feb 9, 2012 - 5:03pm

    More Ammunition for Gold Price Increases

    Great story presented on ZH about Iran and it's efforts to short circuit the Fed-induced embargo of its central bank:


    ZH refers to a further story from Casey Research which offers a fascinating story of international financial intrigue:


    Short story version...the unwinding of the US dollar reserve continues...


    FriedEggs · Feb 9, 2012 - 5:06pm

    I agree

    that 'they' can kick the can a lot longer... If the masses are alseep...keep kicking it... keep kicking and kicking and kicking until they snap...why stop? Kick it until they go banana's...


    It reminds me of the one see in the movie Borat...where Borat is asking the Supermarket manager what the items are in the dairy section... its cheese. It is cheese over and over and over again... what's this and this and this and this x 50 times...and the manager...just keeps his patience and takes it, while saying 'cheese' 4 dozen times...Borat just keeps kicking the can and he(mgr) does not snap.

    Think of Borat as the EE and the manager as the masses asleep...At what point does one snap and say - enough? 

    20 trillion $ debt... 50 trillion $ debt... how about - 1 quadzillion dollars - now snap?





    usk · Feb 9, 2012 - 5:07pm

    CME Cuts Gold, Silver, Platinum And Copper Margins

    CME Cuts Gold, Silver, Platinum And Copper Margins


    It has been so long since the CME cut gold and silver margins that frankly we are a little bit stunned... In an extended announcement, which saw outright margins for virtually every commodity get cut, the CME just lowered Initial and Maintenance margins of gold (by 12%) and silver (13%), to $7500 maintenance for GC and $16000 maintenance for SI. Did the bear trap season just open? And how long before these are re-hiked by 15%, 20% or more? For now, however, this is certainly near-term bullish.

    labestiol · Feb 9, 2012 - 5:09pm
    NW VIEW Lumpy · Feb 9, 2012 - 5:16pm


    The elite are playing an international game of musical chairs. It is an old sport and someday the music will stop. They will play and position themselves to control the wealth and power until the end. Like all players of this game, they will look around in the end to see who is left and then notice they are seated between the antichrist and the false prophet.

    I also agree that the dollar index being valued against six foreign currencies is really a Ponzi of its own. It reminds me of when we were kids and would talk someone into trading us a dime for a nickel because the nickel was larger than a dime. It worked then and the POSX still does it today.

    Bohemian TF · Feb 9, 2012 - 5:17pm


    Turd Ferguson

    Prisoner HP4762-2

    High Plains Detention Center ND-2

    What a coincidence, Turd, you've got the same relocation address as me. I've got placement papers today and am leaving tomorrow, so -- if you want, you can stay in my cottage, B-6735A.

    lakemike49 · Feb 9, 2012 - 5:20pm

    response to turds anyone-anyone

    just my 2 cents, because it is manipulated, and not always in the way we can see clearly. haven't you been listening to the news, cnbc, fox, etc. It is all coming together, tough times are behind us, companies are showing record sales and record profits. did not the president just tell us all is well, his plan is coming together, the arab spring is working, green jobs are working etc-etc-etc. just give him a little more time, and we will all reach OZ together. buy equities,buy bonds, buy treasuries, anything but PM's. perception goes a long way, make the people believe in these things enough and it will shake the confidence in those wanting to be long PM's or buy at these levels

    Oh by the way they also have to keep you from popping the hood on that car, or they might notice the moter mounts are shot, and the frame is rusted out, and the engine is about to fall out. when this rubber band snaps, it's going to snap hard.

    keep stacking


    LOUP-GAROU · Feb 9, 2012 - 5:27pm

    margin cuts

    trying to restore some confidence into the markets!

    boatman · Feb 9, 2012 - 5:28pm

    its manipulation on a daily

    or weekly basis.........but look at the monthly gold chart since '01

    believe me u do not want it to rise any faster than it did.

    straight up is deathly

    patience, young skywalker, we win in the end.

    any downward pressure exerted is just pushing ON A SPRING!

    u ever hit a tire with a hammmer? 

    The Vet · Feb 9, 2012 - 5:41pm

    margin cuts.....

    Shorts need somebody to take the other side of their position... Buyers of long positions pay cash; short sellers take that cash and keep most of it... One sided markets with sellers but no buyers may be easy to manipulate, but hard to profit from because the new money only comes from the buyers not the sellers.

    Also lack of buyers makes rolling the short positions out to later months impossible. This is the bread and butter of the big short sellers and it relies on the normal market contango. Without buyers the further out months languish and the market drifts into backwardation. Rolling short positions out then becomes a losing proposition and instead of rolling the shorts are forced into closing the positions.

    Of course the interesting development will be if the buyers don't come back even despite the margin cuts. The cuts show that somebody in these markets is hurting, and it's not the guys who walked away in disgust last time they were robbed blind, first by the piling on of margin increases in a free falling market and then by theft of their funds by MFing Global.

    Much as I would like to believe that they will just walk away, it seems that most are like Charlie Brown and they will always want another kick at that football; this time it might be different!

    thesandbox · Feb 9, 2012 - 5:50pm

    Margin Cuts....

    the comex players were starting to feel a little lonely now were they? No one wants to play in their game any more?

    Silver2500 LOUP-GAROU · Feb 9, 2012 - 5:57pm

    Margin cuts to lure in some paper players.

    And they will fail miserably. Who would want to play in CRIMEX using the leverage anymore??? Especially after what happened in May, 2011. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.

    To anyone out there playing in this criminal paper house, please stop doing it or you'll get burned again.

    LOUP-GAROU · Feb 9, 2012 - 6:06pm

    margin cuts

     well I'm one that walked away and don't plan on getting back in. there is no telling who the next mf ing global will be. it's such a shame that you can't trust any of them! when the trust leaves the system, money follows. that is whats happening now.........

    The Green Manalishi · Feb 9, 2012 - 6:14pm
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