By All Means, Sell Your PMs!

228
154
Thu, Jul 21, 2011 - 3:04pm

 Word of a pending "deal" between The Regime and The House sent the metals reeling this morning. This once again proves that WOPR does not have actual, human intelligence...at least, not yet.

Of course the debt ceiling is going to be raised in a package with some phased-in spending cuts and tax increases. That was never in question. The only question has been whether there would be a "plan" such as this or whether O'bottom would simply raise the ceiling by executive order. It's quite clear now what will happen. As partially discussed back on Monday, here's how this will play out:

1) The House cast a vote last night on a "Tea Party" package. It passes overwhelmingly but has zero chance of passing the Senate or receiving O'bottom's signature. No matter. It's all about "political cover". More on that later in point #4.

2) A "plan" emerges, brokered by The Regime and the Republican "leadership". 50 or so "safe seat" Repubs will vote for the plan in the House. Those 40-50 votes plus all of the Dem votes will be enough to pass the plan. All of the Senate Dems plus one or two Repubs will approve the plan in the Senate and O'bottom will sign it.

3) Problem solved. smiley

4) "Tea Party" Repubs are able to claim that they did their best. They'll be "on the record" as having voted against O'bottom but voting for their own plan. This is known as "having your cake and eating it, too". On balance, they will be safely re-elected next year and Boehner will keep his job as SOTH.

5) Every politician wins! You lose. Again. angry

So with that behind us, let's cut to the chase. The debt ceiling is going to be raised again by another $2T or so... (Don't forget about this chart!)

large_gc_1_0_0.jpg

...And it will only take about a year and a half to hit the ceiling again. With the passage of this "deal", all that will have happened is a kicking of the can down the road until early 2013. Hmmm. Early 2013. Why would that be significant?? Let's see, what happens in late 2012? I know it's something but I can't put my finger on it. Let me get back to you on that.

At any rate, the question you need to ask yourself right now is: "From where will this $2T be coming?".

I know! China! (Nope.)

Russia? (Nope.)

Japan? (Sorry.)

The EU and ECB! That's it! The owe us a few favors! (Negative.)

We'll raid pension plans and IRAs! (Someday soon but not yet.)

QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3QE3!!!!!!!

So, by all means, today's news means you should sell your gold and sell your silver. NOT! I sincerely hope all of you are wise enough now to not continue falling for the manufactured SPIN and MOPE of Washington politics.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  228 Comments

FriedEggs
Jul 21, 2011 - 3:48pm

lol...'Up in Smoke'...Don't

lol...'Up in Smoke'...Don't Bogart that jointttt...my friend...lalala

Our friend Chuck Butler re Debt Ceiling...

Jim Sinclair had a great line about raising the debt ceiling…

“The idea that an increase in the debt ceiling is a solution to anything is nonsense. Calling increasing the debt ceiling a solution to a debt problem is too stupid to be stupid.” 

lol

Fried(e)

Shill
Jul 21, 2011 - 3:49pm

You know

You know what is even funnier than our so called Debt Ceiling raise..... The ECB accepting defaulted bonds.

Ya the world has gone full Charlie Sheen. The best part of this entire mess for me personally is knowing how fake it all really is.

bullwhip29
Jul 21, 2011 - 3:56pm

Raid today was less intense

Maybe the EE is indeed becoming more and more inept? Mild (but encouraging) rally into the close, which we didn't see following the shake down on Tuesday. In light of this, perhaps we can start the day off tomorrow guns blazing, chew through resistance at $1600 and close above that level going into the weekend (which would also give us a positive close for the week).

metcoalfan
Jul 21, 2011 - 3:57pm

With options expirations next week...

and a plan in hand....that lowers tax rates to raise taxes (you know you are about to get screwed when they start out with 'lower marginal rates') and doesn't cut anything but future profligation to reduce spending, the PMs are going to have a rough week ahead. Woo Hoo, what to buy, what to buy next week

Goofy
Jul 21, 2011 - 3:58pm

With headlines like

With headlines like this:

Wall Street climbs on financials, debt progress

(Reuters) - Stocks advanced on Thursday, powered by financials after Morgan Stanley reported better-than-expected results and on apparent progress on debt deals in Europe and the United States.

You want to buy more silver fast lol..

metcoalfan
Jul 21, 2011 - 3:59pm

EE may be pacing themselves....

They know they'll have cover next week, no need to blow their last supplies of powder all at once. 

Shill
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:01pm

Yawn

Press conference has started. And now finished

We saved the world

Video unavailable
unky
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:04pm

sell PMs for the short term

so i guess we will see a huge drop tomorrow (and short term)? then we should all position with buying put options ? can make quite some money then i guess.

Larry
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:11pm

@WYO Silver

Thanks for the reply and opinion on Edelson's new vid/outlook. I'm in complete agreement with your opinion but wanted to get feedback in case I was just missing something. I've been following (not closely and not buying his reccos) for several years now - not nearly as long as you have.

He seems like a good chap, has a deep knowledge of the markets, spot on with political rants, correct on the major trends and such, but for the last year or so he seems to have gotten himself out of kilter with his short and mid-term timing, interpretation of the charts or something. Maybe softened up living the good life in Thailand? 

It was downright painful to watch him over the few months of the big run up last summer/fall into April. He seemed shell shocked. I also thought that he should've been more upfront and timely with admitting a missed call, or just admit confusion with his TA or whatever. It happens to the best, so IMO it's best to admit mistakes quickly, reset the course and move on. If one has to eat a turd, best not to nibble. Anyway, that would've been appreciated by all except for those that want crystal ball analysis and zero tolerance for mistakes.

Hopefully he'll sort it out, tighten it up, shake it off and get back on top of the bull that threw him.

bullwhip29
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:12pm

@ metcoalfan

Re: EE may be pacing themselves...

This wouldn't surprise me the least bit. For all we know, they could be gearing up for Sunday night once again. Whether by design or not, the EE does appear to have lost its grip somewhat (well, at least for the time being). Anyway, it's pretty much crunch time now...should be fun over the next several days.

Kuchek
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:15pm

PMs

Gold is not money - The Bernanke

OC15 Kuchek
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:20pm

Gold is Money - The

Gold is Money - The Dictionary

John Law
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:20pm

Yes, yes everyone please get

Yes, yes everyone please get rid of your precious metals. And to make it so convenient for everyone to do, just PM me and I'll send you my mailing address and you can send them to me and I'll make sure they get sent to the recycling facility. You have my promise! It's time we break tradition and worship the Bernank buck like good little serfs.

Violent Rhetoric
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:21pm

Gold is not money - The

Gold is not money - The Bernanke

Gold is money - the guy laying my bathroom tile.

Hickerydooo
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:21pm
Dr Bob
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:23pm

Going out to buy

some more Eagles. i try to buy a little every week. im gonna double what i normally buy today. 


Jul 21, 2011 - 4:27pm

@ Bullwhip, metcoalfan

Count me as completely on-board with this thesis- with Options Expiry on Tuesday, a faux debt deal to "strengthen" the USD, and looming treasury auctions next week demanding TPTB prop up the dollar, I am on record here as saying I think we have a nearly perfect storm of a buying opportunity presenting itself to us on Monday or Tuesday next week. The fly in that ointment would be if the 2 yr treasury auction fails and they start to panic about the longer auctions to follow and do something completely nuts later in the week, but either way I think next week is going to be a truly epic buying opportunity- the kind that could make your entire year.

Just stalking through the weeds, patiently waiting to strike.... I'm gonna totally devour that wildebeast.

thecoloredsky unky
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:35pm

RE: sell PMs short term

If everyone thought that, wouldn't it be a good time for the shorts to cover? My mind is playing tricks on me...

robov
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:35pm

Need Expert Advice?

robov's picture

Need Advice?

Submitted by robov on July 21, 2011 - 4:26pm. Hat Tip!

It' seriously time to consider getting into physical. I currently have 1 - 5 oz bar of Silver that was given to us as a gift way back in the 80's when Silver was around $8 oz, a 1985 22 kt Canadian Mint Coin with a face value of $100.00 and a good size bag full of various other miscellaneous coins (Canadian, US, UK, AU etc.). Not even sure if they are worth anything as I have never even thought about bringing them to a coin dealer. Anyway I just thought I'd check my investments that I through my financial advisor and Manulife Investments. They've been in conservative investments since sometime in 2010 while we wait for a "correction" in the market according to my FA. BTW they predicted that correction sometime towards the end of last year and still I wait. The return on those this year to date....all less than 1%. I am trying to convince my wife to cash some or all of them in (they are all leveraged against the equity in our home) FA's idea, it will bring the balance on the mortgage down and then take some of that and buy physical Gold & Silver. The only advantage, which I am seriously having to reconsider, to keeping the investments now is I can write off the interest income 100%. But paying 3+ % on the interest charges vs >1 % return makes no sense to me. I am not a numbers person hence why I have a FA that I want to believe has my best interests at heart and why I spend so much of my spare time reading blogs and such to try and educate myself as much as possible. All that said is there any advantage to buying coins vs bars and vice versa? What is the best thing for me to start with?

Thanks in advance, Rob.

thecoloredsky robov
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:40pm

RE: Rob

I have a few bars, but the buyer might want assay or at least get them tested. Name brands like J&M seem to be common as are others. Coins are legit and easier to get rid of from a technical standpoint. Though, you'll pay a little more premium when buying. I personally like the coins because I don't want to hassle with anyone.

edit: check out https://www.coinflation.com

you might be able to identify and gauge values for the old coins you have.

metcoalfan
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:41pm

@bullwhip29

Without a doubt they have much lost of their grip. Impossible to believe they contemplated current conditions when they committed to their short positions. They can't possibly hope to come out of this in one piece....the best the can do is try to pace the ascent....so have they struck a deal with the Bernanke - attempt to manage a more orderly rise in exchange for being bailed out once again at some point in the not too distant future? Or maybe just using what will become taxpayer money to fill their personal vaults as cheaply as possible, with Bernanke turning a blind eye because it works for him? Who knows. They certainly like to time their attacks to coincide with big headline news - they know it will be coming fast and furious next week.

Larry
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:41pm

@Bay of Pigs

I also read Ted's latest a little while ago. He's a sharp, good dude, but man... he's got to be drinking Pollyanna juice to keep hoping against hope that Gensler or the CFTC is going to do anything that helps investors and hurts their bosses' boss. Maybe he's just playing the "attract more with honey than vinegar" approach... but I really don't think that approach works with liars, scoundrels and crooks who couldn't care less what the public thinks. 

One of Ted's lines you quoted, "I sense that the CFTC is starting to see the light...". 

They may very well "see" the light. But they remain in the shadows.

Eric Original
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:42pm

Oops, robov!!

I answered you on the prior thread!

Eric Original
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:43pm

Time for me to fess up

I don't even watch the price of silver anymore. All I watch is the price of gold. Does that make me a bad person?

bern
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:48pm

QE3 bitchez

QE3 bitchez

Rui
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:54pm
murphy
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:55pm

@Eric

If I had your gold I wouldn't watch silver either

kliguy38
Jul 21, 2011 - 4:55pm

SELL SELL SELL!

AAAAOOOOOGA ......AAAAOOOOOGA.....dive dive dive.....yeh turd thats the spirit....lets shake the trees for the EE......unfortunately I think retail is getting too savvy......oh well my hoped for buy under 30 may never materialize but I can dream

Gadsd N. Flagg SilverFocker
Jul 21, 2011 - 5:08pm

Nice choice of year range

Don't you just love it when "historical" PM charts end in 1999 or 2001 or sometime similar? Very helpful for certain viewpoints when you pick a multi-decade low for gold as your endpoint.

beinki
Jul 21, 2011 - 5:09pm
Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 1/21

1/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
1/24 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMI
1/24 10:00 ET Leading Econ Indicators
1/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 1/14

1/15 8:30 am ET Producer Price Index
1/15 8:30 am ET Empire State Mfg. Index
1/16 8:30 am ET Retail Sales
1/16 8:30 am ET Import Price Index
1/17 8:30 am ET Housing Starts
1/17 8:30 am ET Philly Fed
1/18 9:15 am ET Capacity Utilization and Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 1/7

1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services Index
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/9 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes 
1/10 Speeches from CGP, Goons Bullard and Evans
1/11 8:30 ET CPI

Recent Comments

randomness