Thinking About Tomorrow

74
Wed, Apr 10, 2019 - 11:20am

In Craig’s absence I thought I’d provide something we can chat about, or at least you can call me names and explain how wrong I am.

I’ve been watching the metals lately and they just seem impeded. I wonder who it is that holds price down? It’s clear that Craig’s thesis of a move to 1360 & higher is pushing them upward, but the resistance from bankers just seems to have precious metals shackled. Even Palladium is feeling the drag. After the big smash back on March 27, metals have simply been flat, until last Friday when the bidders began pushing price higher. This morning looks a bit stronger than yesterday and provides some optimism. I have been trading JNUG a bit, but frankly, the action has not tempted me to jump in, until this morning. I am just keeping an eye on it at this point.

Gold Chart April 9 2019

We gotta have at least one chart today. A continued bid up through $1315 would catch my interest.

I went for a long walk with my dog in the forest yesterday morning and began pondering the future. Though I don't have a crystal ball, and I won’t claim to be a prophet, and fortune-telling is right out, I did have a few ideas about how the next decade may unfold for us.

First of all, most of us are convinced that a group of elites have been pulling all the strings they can in this world, politically & economically, tirelessly working towards a one world government for the past hundred years or so. And they’re certainly not about to give up just because an outsider won the US election, nor are they going to relinquish power to anybody else.

So here are my predictions

  • Our current POTUS will win reelection two years. Not because he is a great candidate, but because the Democrats will have a hard time settling on an acceptable candidate who might beat him, and in the meantime he will co-opt one or more of their ideas, like universal healthcare, or even free college for whoever wants it. He is also far more skilled at campaigning & debate… and especially gifted at trolling. He will make his opponent look foolish.
  • The Democratic field is so crowded that the eventual candidate will have to really distinguish themselves AND be approved by the party power brokers. If not approved, a popular candidate will get “Bernied,” as they hand the nomination to their favorite HRC replacement.
  • Many forms of international and domestic activism will continue to grow. Most groups will become more violent as the years pass, as we have seen with Antifa. The days of peaceful demonstrations are gone. Violent activism during the election season will cause many Dems to walk away, supporting a 3rd candidate, which will only help POTUS.
  • Liberals will be doubly upset when POTUS wins, and renew their efforts to have him impeached, probably on more trumped up charges.
  • The economy will continue to stagger around with little direction. If the wall and the rebuilding of infrastructure gets going in earnest, employment will be solid for those willing to work in construction or supply industries. But robotics and automation will continue displacing workers from many other sectors.
  • The media will continue bashing gold and silver, keeping masses of people away from it, steering them toward crypto currencies. Meanwhile, metals will be restrained as we’ve seen the past 10 years. We might have a spike now and then, but I won’t be surprised to see gold under 2000 and silver under 20 in 2024.
  • The world will not end. But it will become tougher than ever to make a decent living, especially for the younger generations.
  • The neocons will probably get a war, but not necessarily the one they want. We will maintain strained relationships with China and Russia, but will not threaten them militarily. Another Venezuela, or Libya is likely. It wouldn’t surprise me if Trump cuts a deal with the neocons to give them a war, and keep himself in power.
  • The move toward socialism is serious. Young people are for not learning how to think and analyze in college anymore, confusing their feelings for rational thought. And there economic frustration will compel them to support socialism and eventually a worldwide, centrally planned economy.

  • Finally, as Trump leaves office in six years, the youth will finally get there liberal president who will promptly move us toward socialism founded on this modern monetary theory. We will try it and it will fail, but it won’t happen fast.

So I’m not holding my breath for my modest stack of gold to increase in value anytime soon. But I will not be without it as my insurance policy. I plan to roll with the punches, live frugally, diversifying my earnings into metals, property, and needed commodities. As I turn 60 this summer, I may start a business that actually produces something of value that people will need and be willing to pay or trade to get it. Perhaps I’ll become a solar electric contractor.

We should all be thinking about some sort of business that produces something for this changing economy. If I can get my kids involved, that may be their best shot at having a career that works. Unless, of course, they get into artificial intelligence, writing algorithms for robotics or surveillance, or some other such technical industry that will help whoever is in power maintain it. The return of our old friend and his story of cultivating cannabis products should be instructive for all who think there aren’t any good small business opportunities out there

I plan to keep a low profile politically. I’d love to be a political activist working hard to restore an ethical version of capitalism, drain the swamp, and root the neocons and deep state out of our government. I’m also a realist. If a viable movement arises, I’m in.

I had quite a shock last April 1 to read a couple of stories on ZH. The first was Caitlin Johnstone’s apology to the liberals that Mueller was right about the collusion. I went for it hook, line, and sinker, not noticing the date. Next I read the article about all the tools the FED has to keep real estate and the stockmarket moving upwards for another decade. I bit on that one too. In fairness, I was out of town at a conference and not paying attention to the date.

After figuring out the joke was on me, I started thinking about the FED article. While clearly an April fool’s essay, as identified in the final line, there might be some ironic truth there about their “tools.” This beloved central bank of ours has the power to print money. And these elitists also have the media in their pocket. We should not underestimate their power to create money to save stocks, combined with their monopoly on public discourse. Perhaps this tool consists of a willingness to lie, bullshit, persuade and propagandize how good things are. I am convinced they can keep an economic panic at bay longer than we think. Perhaps that April fool’s article is closer to the truth than we want to believe.

Finally, on my trip to California last week, we stayed in the hotel in Fresno where we could see the towers for the high-speed rail being constructed. The walls of our flea-bag motel between room were paper thin and one evening we heard a group of people talking very excitedly in the next room. My wife and I finished our glasses of wine and then put the cups to the wall and listened in on a very interesting conversation.

Apparently, at least four Snowflake, Misogynist, Uber-Right, Feminist, activists (a cell known as SMURF) were plotting to disrupt the high speed rail from central CA down to the LA basin.

They discussed plans to blow it up on opening day and cause as much mayhem as possible.

One male voice said, “So I figure that we hit the Blue line from Sacramento to LA and set the charges right after leaving the station, and film that train flying off the tracks and put it on Instagram before 911 even gets the call."

The others all replied heartily, “Yeah, yeah, yeah.” Except for one guy, girl, dude.

Heshe said, “We can do even better than that!” The rest quieted down and listened closely. “Since the Red line is coming back to Sacramento from LA later that day, we can get two lines with the same charge at the point where they pass one another. All we gotta figure out is where and when to strike."

The others all shouted even more heartily, “YEAH, YEAH, YEAH.”

Shehe continued, with hint of superiority in her voice, “It's 393 miles between stations. So if the Red line leaves Sacramento at 6:15 am, going south at 220 mph, and the Blue line leaves LA at 7:00 am going north at 200 mph, we should be able to set our charges at … uh … Hmmm…"

A long silence followed … very long…

The first person spoke up again, “I know… Let’s just blow up the Blue line!"

Yeah, yeah, yeah.” *

They really ought to study math in college and drop the gender activist classes. Too bad Trump cut the funding. I wonder if it will ever be finished, or just stand in sections over the orchards and fields as it is now.

high speed rail line
Image: IMAGE CREDITS: YOUTUBE, CALIFORNIA HIGH-SPEED RAIL AUTHORITY

* I must attribute this joke, for better or worse, to my muse who dropped it in my head as we drove into Fresno past sections of the ill-fated high speed rail project.

Almost time to walk the dog again. Have a great day and keep prepping.

About the Author

  74 Comments

Winder
Apr 13, 2019 - 9:44pm

Karat

Don’t remember the specifics, but pretty sure it’s a scam.

AngryCitizen
Apr 13, 2019 - 10:02pm

Interesting Thoughts Y'all Have

But I wonder what can be done on the "local" level to turn the hearts and minds of people in this country back to basic principles that have made this country stand out in the world (before the psychopaths took near-total control). Religious freedom, (not to be confused with the more modern caging of religious freedom), private property rights, human rights, intellectual/copywrite law, etc. have been instrumental in the development of our social fabric, not just industrial/tech stuff. I see clearly how we, the "older" generations, have abandoned our responsibilities to make sure our future generations see and understand the importance of these rights and freedoms. We trusted the edahmahcasion system to do that for us, and instead focused on what we though more important. The result was that the ed system in this country was stolen from right under our noses by the enemy, our enemy. In short, education is key, but not just transfer of knowledge only. The transfer of common value system is what made us great because it was needed to incubate all the good that came after. We still had enough of that when I was a kid. E Pluribus Unum.

NW VIEW AngryCitizen
Apr 13, 2019 - 10:26pm

@ AngryCitizen

I typed a long view, answering your post, a view of what must be done, and then, I canceled it. Just my outlier view of our mess, but needing to be on a forum. Jim

AngryCitizen -SilverIsMoney-
Apr 13, 2019 - 10:41pm

True Dat.

"The thing to remember is eventually it will die but you have to remain solvent longer than the monetary system stays insane."

This will get harder and harder to do, won't it?

Some German guy in the 20's barrowed a lot of currency to grow his successful businesses and paid them back with cheaper currency as inflation took off...Is this a viable plan today? Real estate that could cash flow in the rental market? Business that ppl will need as Dr J and NW have said here? Other ideas?

AngryCitizen NW VIEW
Apr 13, 2019 - 10:48pm

NW

Where's the forum? Bring it.

canary
Apr 14, 2019 - 1:49am

Super, super interesting (to me)

Two very smart cookies talking ....with my comprehension ability on the octopus level.

I listened twice...each time understanding only quarter what they said....wish I paid more attention to English and economics in school (rather than vodka and soccer...though it was fun then).

Danielle DiMartino Booth: "This Bear Market Rally Will Not Last" (Hedgeye Investing Summit)
Chic72 Winder
Apr 14, 2019 - 3:18am

Thanks

Thanks for your opinion it's appreciated
canary
Apr 14, 2019 - 3:20am

Danielle DiMartino Booth...video

Not a single direct question about Fed manipulating markets....How convenient.

AGXIIK
Apr 14, 2019 - 9:47am

For mini-me data wonks, put on your Rain Man hat

and Grok this DiMartino video in context to the ZH article about Neil Kearns, the most powerful man you never heard of on Wall Street

There is some very interesting information about credit market lock ups, trucking volume and liquidity flows to corporate stock buy backs

That the HY bond market shut down for 44 days speaks volumes as to why the markets dropped $4 trillion. That is the total Fed garbage pile asset base. I pity the Fed fools being prisoners of the prisoners they've taken.

QT cannot exist in a world hell bent on drinking from the deluge of money flows. The Fed is out of touch with reality in a world where Average Joes and Janes are dependent on consumption, their low level jobs and a huge debt overhang that always threatens to crush them.

Charging your kiddies market rent because they decide to move back in, pray to AOC and won't find a job might pay the bills doesn't change the fact that it's your kids and they are dead beats. That income stream won't pay the bills. Call it home based Quantitive Tightening at the belt loop level.

Low to non-existent tax refunds are hitting the GDP and Q1-Q2 economic activity. Sending excess taxes to the whores at the IRS is like telling Knuckles McGurk that you are happy to pay the 'vig and want a refund. Knuckle sandwiches are not a food group

Joe and Jane know More Cowbells does not work as instrument accompaniment even as the Fed dances to music totally dependent on more cow bells

If Congress bans or restricts corporate buy backs the stock market will drop by 70-80% no matter how low the rate

When Joe and Jane stop dancing, the world is fooked

Please sir----Can I have more whisky and a side tranche of special dividend BBB-Q convertible HY warrants says the shit eating private equity vulture investor, down 23% year to date.

A side note

I had to send $5000 to the IRS in large part due to the new tax law.

I hate sending money to a gummint that's at war with me.

Fuck everything that has government attached to it

On a happy note, just yesterday I saw the results of my work as a tax protestor anarchist result in saving two friends low 4 figure tax payments using my classified and patented L.C.S. tax avoidance scheme. They made way more in 2018 and paid way less taxes than 2017.

Works like a charm

Fuck the IRS

NW VIEW and Angry Citizen. Here is your forum, Dive in, the water is fine

One last thought

If the government declares a war on cash then don't commit your FIAT troops to the front line.

That's just stupid.

Keep them in reserve and buy gold and silver with your cash.

Conversion to PMs takes liquidity out of a system that uses your liquidity to make war against you on four fronts. This allows your FIAT to bivvy in the rear with the gear, with 3 hots and a cot, safe from hostile enemy fire

Otherwise you are on your own.

The sooner you figure it out the soon you stop relying on tax refunds as a pay raise to bring your mortgage current

-SilverIsMoney- AngryCitizen
Apr 14, 2019 - 1:34pm

Angry Citizen...

I would tell you that my investment advice is worth what you pay for it - nothing.

But the point im trying to make is everyone here still makes the same mistake they did 7 years ago - they focus in on the American fundamentals and see how terrible the data is and figure that it guarantees an economic collapse here.

But, they're wrong, and they've been wrong for going on almost a decade as stocks have basically quarupled over the same time period.

But, were they really wrong? Did the real economy get better at any point in that decade? Has anything fundamentally changed at all? Is the zombie economy that's been created post 2008 still kicking? Should this economy really have generated a 400% growth in the stock market over the last 10 years? Of course not.

I can understand why people still think it's going to crash but, to me, the last decade has proven that FUNDAMENTALS DONT MATTER and to sit here and suggest they do only sets you up for more disappointment. The ENTIRE system is manipulated, not just gold, so the fact everything economically seems so terrible in America is irrelevant and has been for the last 10 years.

I'm not saying it shouldn't crash, I'm not saying it wont eventually. I'm not saying this is right, I'm saying this is what it is. TPTB are still in total control.

Why?

Well, let's start with I believe Gold will rise with rates and the fact Gold is up almost 25% since rates started to rise is not a coincidence imo. In a world where we couldnt export our inflation then it would make sense that more currency printing = higher prices. But that's not the reality we live in, the reality we live in is that currency chases yield and if yields don't rise then the currency sits at the Fed window with no motivation to move or generate inflation. This, imo, is why commodities have gone up with rates. Rising rates is now the only thing that generates real inflation and if you don't believe me just look at Europe. They drove rates negative to generate inflation and they still haven't gotten it.

Rates going back down in the US is only going to restart the entire fraud - low rates = weaker dollar = cheaper money = more buy backs = higher stock prices = lower commodity prices.

Why would anything about that change?

So, then, let's just assume for a second that rates don't change and the Fed at the very least stands pat and doesn't do anything. Our rates are still much higher here in the US than they are across Europe and our bond markets are considered more stable. If the Fed doesnt lower rates they're going to drive more and more money out of the Eurozone and make everything about the United States more attractive to Europeans.

The reason fundamentals havent mattered is because the US equity market has turned into a safe haven for the Chinese, Japanese, and Europeans and this, imo, is why there's such a disconnect between the reality we see every day as Americans and the unreality of our stock market continuing to explode to the upside.

Case in point. The market crashed 6 months ago down to the 21000 level and now we're already back up near all time highs - what the hell changed in 5 months in the US economy to justify that? Nothing. Every time our market crashes there's foreign investors that come rushing in.

Because of this it's damn near impossible for the average American to understand how most people they know don't have $500 in their bank account but that stock prices could be so absurdly high at the same time. There's a serious disconnect here that, imo, has been caused by the fact our market has become the safe haven trade for the world.

Compared to Europe we have a stronger currency, a stronger market, higher rates of interest, a more secure bond market, and believe it or not less civil unrest to deal with at this time.

This, to me, is setting up for us to see one of the worst hyperDEFLATIONS in history. If the EU collapses potentially trillions of euros worth of capital is going to come FLOODING into our markets and currency at the exact same time.

^This, imo, is how the entire collapse process starts.

For example, I own a house in Denver. I recently had it reapparaised at 300k - I bought it for 250k and owe the bank back 235k atm. My plan is to sell the house next summer. My realtor told me if I update the basement bathroom, replace the carpet, and paint he can get me 330k for the house. MY HOPE is that by next summer i'll have the principle down to 230k and i'll sell for 330k - netting 100k before fees, taxes, etc.

But, assume for a second the EU does collapse and OVERNIGHT we see the dollar actually STRENGTHEN 50%.

I will wake up to a house that's now worth 150k and the additional 85k I owe the bank just to get back to even is now about 170k in terms of purchasing power. In order to pay off the house ill basically owe 470k in purchasing power for a house now worth 150k.

I'll basically be ruined. Employers will not be able to pay employees the same rate, minimum wage laws alone would wreak havoc. It would be a complete an utter clusterf***.

MILLIONS of other homeowners in the United States will be ruined at the same time. Not to mention how pissed off everyone would be with the value of their 401ks and retirement funds.

My dad is constantly on my ass about the fact I own 0 stock in my portfolio and the entire argument I get back is, "The market always rises in the long run." But when I argue with him this absurd notion ASSUMES NEVER ENDING INFLATION he can't even comprehend what i'm trying to say. My dad was an executive at a fortune 300 company and even he can't even comprehend a world where we have strength in the dollar.

If the EU were to collapse into the dollar and we experience a hyperdeflation, at that point, what will the Fed do? There's no doubt they'll have to fire up the printing presses, drive rates negative, and buy practically the entire bond market.

THIS IS THE POINT WHEN GOLD WILL BLOW TO THE MOON.

Why?

Because at that point there's NO currency left for people to run to. Once everything collapses into the dollar, and we get this hyperdeflation, there's literally no where else for trillions of dollars of capital to go except for private assets - this is when the hyperINFLATION would start to begin.

Once the entire world is into the dollar and the hyperinflation begins then everyone in the dollar will have no choice but to buy EVERYTHING that isn't a currency or a gov't bond. This is when everything - stocks, gold, oil, corporate bonds, ALL private assets not owned or managed by the governments of the world finally starts to blow sky high.

This is when the governments try to backdoor us into the SDR/One world currency and it is my belief that even the dumbest of people will lose confidence and realize that's a terrible idea. The only play at that point would be to pour into private assets that will be revalued later by whatever new monetary system is implemented to save the country.

This is when we finally get the absurd price growth in the metals that we've been waiting for. $100 days in gold, Silver into the triple digits, etc.

The people like Maloney and Willie who argued we need hyperdeflation first are right. Look around, do you really think were there? I don't.

It's possible when the flight from the EU comes pouring in that a lot of it goes into gold, real estate, and the stock market but a lot of it will pour into the dollar as well. It will be an absolute mess.

This is why I think Willie is going to be right - we're going to end up with a two tiered monetary system. The Fed's biggest problem is their trying to manage a currency domestically but at the same time their currency is the world's currency. It's impossible to manage both.

The US needs higher rates to save people on fixed income and more importantly to save all the pension funds that are overweight bonds.

However, the world cannot take higher rates from the US because it only accelerates the collapse into the dollar.

They are boxed in. Something is guaranteed to break and I think it'll be Europe before it's the pension funds.

Either scenario guarantees massive hyperdeflation and the set up into hyperinflation.

This is why I'm terrified of the debts I have. This is why I think it's crazy to load up on any debt at this time assuming you'll get to pay it back cheaper. The better hedge to your gold, imo, is a giant pile of physical cash.

AngryCitizen -SilverIsMoney-
Apr 14, 2019 - 3:35pm

Couple of questions...

First, TY for sharing your opinion. It's very valuable to me in my education.

1) I don't understand why hyper deflation is going to drop your house market value. Do you mean like the housing crash of '08 where r.e. lost market value because no one could buy on credit and didn't have income to afford payment? (I'm a little slow in the uptake. Sorry 'bout that.) If my assumption above is right, why does that change what you owe on the house? ID follow that.

2) If hyper inflation follows the hyper deflation, why wouldn't you hang onto the house in the market downturn, (assuming you can afford to), and pay it off with cheaper inflated dollars? Then sell at a later date bagging the entire thing as profit? People are going to have to live somewhere, so renting it out is a good possibility, if you pick your tenant well and get a good deposit. Also, assuming you have good credit, why not refi at a much lower rate as rates drop? Couldn't you theoretically cut your rate in half in such a situation?

I'd really like to learn, as I have rentals in desirable but affordable areas that I'd prefer not to liquidate, as they have NO history of vacancy in the last 20 years that I've had them, but they are mortgaged. (We do manage them well and cashflow is decent.)

SteveW -SilverIsMoney-
Apr 14, 2019 - 4:26pm

SIM: Regarding the real estate

Thanks for your lengthy and well reasoned post. Maloney has said for years that a hyper deflation and then hyperinflation will precede collapse.

Regarding your real estate I wonder if you truly have time until next year to sell or whether it would be prudent to take a smaller gain now, while it is available.

I know Vancouver is not Denver but we've had the most outrageous real estate inflation on the N. American continent. We receive annual assessments (of property value) conducted by an independent, quasi government, agency in June and released on January 1 of the following year. Our house assessment increased 42% from Jan 2016 to Jan 2017, which worked well for us since we moved to an apartment that year, when apartment prices were up around 25%. In essence family houses caught up with apartment valuations that year which had been really booming. Like many at our age (now 73/75) we were downsizing and there was high demand for apartments, including offshore money buying and leaving vacant units.

The March real estate data has just been released and YOY sales are down 30% and prices down 10%. We know this from our own observation. There are 3 units for sale in our 91 unit building that have been on the market since September and that all have reduced price substantially.

Whether this portends a more serious decline or is merely a blip one cannot know. It doesn't effect me since we have no mortgage having bought outright with proceeds and the value of our unit will not change what ever the price may become in those largely inflated, irrelevant, dollars. We bought our house in 1973. The apartment in 2017 was priced at 10 X of the original price of our house.

Good luck and nice to see you back and actively posting.

SteveW AngryCitizen
Apr 14, 2019 - 4:34pm

AC; SIM One more comment

In a hyper deflation or just deflation the price of an asset, including real estate, falls; just like the 10% drop I mention above.

There is no point in awaiting hyper inflation and selling real estate for 18 wheeler loads of worthless Fed Reserve notes. Hyper inflation starts as a loss of confidence in the simple green pieces of paper that have no intrinsic value. Once this happens the whole world fiat regime will be like Argentina, Turkey and Venezuela are today.

-SilverIsMoney- AngryCitizen
Apr 14, 2019 - 8:37pm

AC

1) I'm not suggesting the value of my house is actually going to fall 50% overnight. What i'm suggesting is that the dollar could strengthen that much in the event of a currency crisis in the Euro.

In my scenario my house ends up being worth 150k ONLY because the dollar ends up being worth 2x what it is today. So the house is worth 150k, but the dollar is so strong 150k is now worth what 300k is today. The problem is the debt levels don't change in that situation - now I still owe the bank back 235k and with the purchasing power of the dollar now 2x what it was - I actually owe the bank back even more money in terms of purchasing power.

Basically what i'm describing is the exact opposite situation you're laying out by paying back the bank in devalued dollars. Instead, in my scenario, were the ones that get boned paying the bank back dollars that are far more valuable than when we started.

My point is this could work both ways - You're at just as much risk paying back in stronger dollars than the bank is at taking back your devalued dollars. That's why I consider it risky.

2) I think hanging onto the house, or any property, would be a fine idea because of the exact situation you're laying out - IF the hyperdeflation happened, and the value of real estate cratered simply because the dollar rose in value, you'd probably only have to go through about 2years of hell before everything flipped back and THEN you'd be paying back the bank in massively devalued dollars as you laid out.

My personal issue with that is I think i'll get a greater rate of return during that hyperinflation from gold, miners, and even blue chip stocks than I will in my real estate. That's why I want out. I think even real estate should do well in a hyperinflation but I do not believe it will do as well as everything else.

But, i'm willing to take the chance to hold out another year because I know even if the hyperdeflation scenario plays out, youre right, eventually it will flip back. I'd be willing to wait through that but i'd also be very disappointed that I'd miss out on better gains in the markets.

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