Thinking About Tomorrow

74
Wed, Apr 10, 2019 - 11:20am

In Craig’s absence I thought I’d provide something we can chat about, or at least you can call me names and explain how wrong I am.

I’ve been watching the metals lately and they just seem impeded. I wonder who it is that holds price down? It’s clear that Craig’s thesis of a move to 1360 & higher is pushing them upward, but the resistance from bankers just seems to have precious metals shackled. Even Palladium is feeling the drag. After the big smash back on March 27, metals have simply been flat, until last Friday when the bidders began pushing price higher. This morning looks a bit stronger than yesterday and provides some optimism. I have been trading JNUG a bit, but frankly, the action has not tempted me to jump in, until this morning. I am just keeping an eye on it at this point.

Gold Chart April 9 2019

We gotta have at least one chart today. A continued bid up through $1315 would catch my interest.

I went for a long walk with my dog in the forest yesterday morning and began pondering the future. Though I don't have a crystal ball, and I won’t claim to be a prophet, and fortune-telling is right out, I did have a few ideas about how the next decade may unfold for us.

First of all, most of us are convinced that a group of elites have been pulling all the strings they can in this world, politically & economically, tirelessly working towards a one world government for the past hundred years or so. And they’re certainly not about to give up just because an outsider won the US election, nor are they going to relinquish power to anybody else.

So here are my predictions

  • Our current POTUS will win reelection two years. Not because he is a great candidate, but because the Democrats will have a hard time settling on an acceptable candidate who might beat him, and in the meantime he will co-opt one or more of their ideas, like universal healthcare, or even free college for whoever wants it. He is also far more skilled at campaigning & debate… and especially gifted at trolling. He will make his opponent look foolish.
  • The Democratic field is so crowded that the eventual candidate will have to really distinguish themselves AND be approved by the party power brokers. If not approved, a popular candidate will get “Bernied,” as they hand the nomination to their favorite HRC replacement.
  • Many forms of international and domestic activism will continue to grow. Most groups will become more violent as the years pass, as we have seen with Antifa. The days of peaceful demonstrations are gone. Violent activism during the election season will cause many Dems to walk away, supporting a 3rd candidate, which will only help POTUS.
  • Liberals will be doubly upset when POTUS wins, and renew their efforts to have him impeached, probably on more trumped up charges.
  • The economy will continue to stagger around with little direction. If the wall and the rebuilding of infrastructure gets going in earnest, employment will be solid for those willing to work in construction or supply industries. But robotics and automation will continue displacing workers from many other sectors.
  • The media will continue bashing gold and silver, keeping masses of people away from it, steering them toward crypto currencies. Meanwhile, metals will be restrained as we’ve seen the past 10 years. We might have a spike now and then, but I won’t be surprised to see gold under 2000 and silver under 20 in 2024.
  • The world will not end. But it will become tougher than ever to make a decent living, especially for the younger generations.
  • The neocons will probably get a war, but not necessarily the one they want. We will maintain strained relationships with China and Russia, but will not threaten them militarily. Another Venezuela, or Libya is likely. It wouldn’t surprise me if Trump cuts a deal with the neocons to give them a war, and keep himself in power.
  • The move toward socialism is serious. Young people are for not learning how to think and analyze in college anymore, confusing their feelings for rational thought. And there economic frustration will compel them to support socialism and eventually a worldwide, centrally planned economy.

  • Finally, as Trump leaves office in six years, the youth will finally get there liberal president who will promptly move us toward socialism founded on this modern monetary theory. We will try it and it will fail, but it won’t happen fast.

So I’m not holding my breath for my modest stack of gold to increase in value anytime soon. But I will not be without it as my insurance policy. I plan to roll with the punches, live frugally, diversifying my earnings into metals, property, and needed commodities. As I turn 60 this summer, I may start a business that actually produces something of value that people will need and be willing to pay or trade to get it. Perhaps I’ll become a solar electric contractor.

We should all be thinking about some sort of business that produces something for this changing economy. If I can get my kids involved, that may be their best shot at having a career that works. Unless, of course, they get into artificial intelligence, writing algorithms for robotics or surveillance, or some other such technical industry that will help whoever is in power maintain it. The return of our old friend and his story of cultivating cannabis products should be instructive for all who think there aren’t any good small business opportunities out there

I plan to keep a low profile politically. I’d love to be a political activist working hard to restore an ethical version of capitalism, drain the swamp, and root the neocons and deep state out of our government. I’m also a realist. If a viable movement arises, I’m in.

I had quite a shock last April 1 to read a couple of stories on ZH. The first was Caitlin Johnstone’s apology to the liberals that Mueller was right about the collusion. I went for it hook, line, and sinker, not noticing the date. Next I read the article about all the tools the FED has to keep real estate and the stockmarket moving upwards for another decade. I bit on that one too. In fairness, I was out of town at a conference and not paying attention to the date.

After figuring out the joke was on me, I started thinking about the FED article. While clearly an April fool’s essay, as identified in the final line, there might be some ironic truth there about their “tools.” This beloved central bank of ours has the power to print money. And these elitists also have the media in their pocket. We should not underestimate their power to create money to save stocks, combined with their monopoly on public discourse. Perhaps this tool consists of a willingness to lie, bullshit, persuade and propagandize how good things are. I am convinced they can keep an economic panic at bay longer than we think. Perhaps that April fool’s article is closer to the truth than we want to believe.

Finally, on my trip to California last week, we stayed in the hotel in Fresno where we could see the towers for the high-speed rail being constructed. The walls of our flea-bag motel between room were paper thin and one evening we heard a group of people talking very excitedly in the next room. My wife and I finished our glasses of wine and then put the cups to the wall and listened in on a very interesting conversation.

Apparently, at least four Snowflake, Misogynist, Uber-Right, Feminist, activists (a cell known as SMURF) were plotting to disrupt the high speed rail from central CA down to the LA basin.

They discussed plans to blow it up on opening day and cause as much mayhem as possible.

One male voice said, “So I figure that we hit the Blue line from Sacramento to LA and set the charges right after leaving the station, and film that train flying off the tracks and put it on Instagram before 911 even gets the call."

The others all replied heartily, “Yeah, yeah, yeah.” Except for one guy, girl, dude.

Heshe said, “We can do even better than that!” The rest quieted down and listened closely. “Since the Red line is coming back to Sacramento from LA later that day, we can get two lines with the same charge at the point where they pass one another. All we gotta figure out is where and when to strike."

The others all shouted even more heartily, “YEAH, YEAH, YEAH.”

Shehe continued, with hint of superiority in her voice, “It's 393 miles between stations. So if the Red line leaves Sacramento at 6:15 am, going south at 220 mph, and the Blue line leaves LA at 7:00 am going north at 200 mph, we should be able to set our charges at … uh … Hmmm…"

A long silence followed … very long…

The first person spoke up again, “I know… Let’s just blow up the Blue line!"

Yeah, yeah, yeah.” *

They really ought to study math in college and drop the gender activist classes. Too bad Trump cut the funding. I wonder if it will ever be finished, or just stand in sections over the orchards and fields as it is now.

high speed rail line
Image: IMAGE CREDITS: YOUTUBE, CALIFORNIA HIGH-SPEED RAIL AUTHORITY

* I must attribute this joke, for better or worse, to my muse who dropped it in my head as we drove into Fresno past sections of the ill-fated high speed rail project.

Almost time to walk the dog again. Have a great day and keep prepping.

About the Author

  74 Comments

canary
Apr 10, 2019 - 11:50am

Thanks Dr J for the post

I'm glad to see gold above $1300 and silver north of $15.20...If only my miners cooperated.

Reading ZH article about the black hole...all my gold, silver and miners (KL and Novo included)...and all my particles, will eventually end up in one of them...with no escape.

Taking my wee doggies (future black hole residents...unfortunately) for a long walk today.

imfd
Apr 10, 2019 - 12:59pm

Thanks Dr J

My belief is that between now and the next election, we see some high profile names up on a charge of treason, this will change things in ways we can`t see but if the rule of law is restored in America, it will have far reaching consequences.

On a happier note, I made it to a Zero Hedge headline...coool !

IMF'd: Stocks Skid, Bonds & Bullion Bid As Lagarde Guts Global Growth Guesses.

That is the original spelling of my name that they used.

TF Metals fan
Apr 10, 2019 - 12:59pm

Thanks DR.J

For making this thread. Frankly gold $100 higher and silver maybe a dollar each year would make me happy. At least much happier than last year when I had a decline of 7 months in a row. This year feels different and Craig could be right. Time will tell.


Apr 10, 2019 - 2:32pm

Hello, everyone

Just thought I'd stop by for a moment as I'm home for a few hours to unpack and repack before heading back to Nebraska. MamaFerg's wake/rosary service is tomorrow evening and the funeral mass is scheduled for Friday morning. Thus, this may be my only post until Saturday or Sunday.

First of all, thanks to Dr Jerome for this excellent post in my absence. Very much appreciated.

I hadn't even looked at price until this morning and I was pleasantly surprised to see the small rallies of early week. However, in the run-up to the just-released FOMC minutes, it's clear that The Banks deliberately slammed on the brakes.

On the updated chart below, note that the 50-day MA for the Jun19 CDG is $1314.80. The peak earlier today was $1314.65. Do you think that happens by coincidence? Of course not. And now I have a post-FOMC last of $1312. The 50-day and the trendline from the February peak are THE TWO KEY ITEMS TO WATCH through the close on Friday.

And CDS has experienced similar Bank interference at its 200-day... BIG shock there, huh? After a nice rally on Monday, price has gone sideways. Why? Check the updated chart below. As with CDG, watch the trendline and the 200-day closely through the close on Friday.

Thanks to everyone for the well wishes posted to the podcast thread, which has been stickied at the top of the homepage. The family is working through the process and the next two days will be difficult so any additional thoughts and prayers you can send our way will be greatly appreciated.

I hope your week ends well and I look forward to returning back to "normal" by next week.

lakedweller2
Apr 10, 2019 - 2:48pm

Dr J

Thanks for the new thread and stirring up the "natives". TF asked that we hold things together until his return so I will limit my comments to POTUS and his inability to debate issues. His skill is in "character assassination" while seriously lacking in substance concerning most every subject and therefore must resort to false claim, inaccuracy, habitually lying, and in defense of his lack of knowledge...character assasination.

That should get it rolling while we watch the banks manipulate all facets of the markets, against the law and corruptly, while Potus spews false information about issues that divide the country further, while the swamp expands.

edit: Almost forgot ...where are you guys finding a copy of the Mueller report. It hasn't been released and even Barr hasn't said anything other than he is going to redact as much as he can so we don't know what is in it. There has been no information about the substance of the report released so the Public can draw conclusions. Only speculation, which never is evidence in Court.

mistymorning
Apr 10, 2019 - 3:09pm

Dr. J

Many years ago I used to find inspiration walking in the NA forests where you are now. Probably some of the same places. Looks like it still works. Thanks for sharing.


Apr 10, 2019 - 3:12pm

Thanks for the charts Turd,

Link to FOMC minutes via ZH

LA times says the Mueller Report has not been released yet.

Lakedweller, I fear that very few politicians are able to actually debate. Nearly all resort to character assassinations to "win" a debate. Argument fallacies, excluded facts, diversions, chuckling at one's opponent while they speak, name-calling, are the tactics that dominate the time. I hated seeing Ron Paul trying to make a point while others ridiculed him instead of addressing his perspective.

Those are not the tactics we teach the debate team at our college or anywhere in this country, but those dirty tactics win televised debates in this society.

TF Metals fan
Apr 10, 2019 - 3:16pm

Talking about supression

Look to copper for a change. Since end of Feb prices have been kept below 2.96-ies. Bottom is slowly creeping up though.

goldcom
Apr 10, 2019 - 3:40pm

Thanks Craig for the update and thanks Doc

Doc I thank you for your thoughts on PM's, Potus and the room next door.

Be careful walking your dog in the woods and carry one of those big walking sticks. A person was walking their dog along a beach area 10 miles or so from my home and was attacked by a cougar which knocked them both over, grabbed the dog and took it under a porch of a house nearby. The dog did not survive as authorities were brought in to destroy the cougar.

CC Horses
Apr 10, 2019 - 3:47pm

Rob Kirby

What You're Not Being Told About Gold, the USD & the Euro | Rob Kirby

45 minute video

Thanks Dr J. Always enjoy your thoughts.

lakedweller2
Apr 10, 2019 - 4:30pm

Dr J

Agree with your assessment concerning the status of debate and the unfairness shown to Ron Paul (which should have been easily assessed by the voters), which participants resort to rather than discuss issues. The avoidance which results in attacks on candidates like RP, is a result of politicians not willing to show their true platforms, where if known would lose them votes... such as opposing prosecution of Wall Street so as not to cut off financial support for their next election.

The Voters must become attuned to those that are the swamp vs those that oppose the Swamp. That seems to be beyond expectations and as a result we get massive support to the "Better Bully" whether words coming from a candidates mouth or the receipt of media support from the Swamp.

AGAU
Apr 10, 2019 - 5:48pm

Potus, debates elections

I fart in their general direction!

America does NOT have elections - we have Auctions!,

matt_
Apr 10, 2019 - 6:50pm

Thinking about tomorrow....

I am going home to work on tuning up my bicycle. Hopefully I will be riding it to work in the morning. Nothing beats bicycling 23 miles round trip to clear my mind.

Here is my 1983 Schwinn Le Tour:

It is a non-collectible bike that I spent an imprudent amount of time and money on rebuilding from the bare frame.

lakedweller2
Apr 10, 2019 - 8:19pm

Matt

That is tremendous!

mike97
Apr 10, 2019 - 10:01pm

Dr. J - Thank you for the article

The only part that I agree with unfortunately is that Donald Trump will be reelected because the Democrats are too disorganized and will probably nominate a left leaning socialist. However the start of a recession should help the Democrats and make it a close race.

I expect a 50% increase in gold, 100% increase in silver and a 150% in the miners by year end. The economy will head into a recession, the dollar will fall below 90 and QE will start up again resulting in significant inflation.

However this is what I have been expecting for the past several years and it hasn't materialized yet.

NW VIEW
Apr 10, 2019 - 10:49pm

@ Dr. J.

I do not expect any huge change in PM's until that huge fan is finally hit. When gold is going up $100/day, reaching $10,000 and silver is at the moon, what will have happened to our culture, our nation, our government, our finances, our military, and even our planet? The way things are progressing, it will be illegal to fall on our knees and even pray.

My view of timing, charting, and the events to come will send me to the forums. We feel like we have found our bug out location, settled in, red necks everywhere, ready for the coming recession, real estate falling like a rock and rentals being in high demand. When the light finally comes on, 90% will finally see that they are actually in darkness, not prepared, and have been played like a puppet. jmo Jim

langron
Apr 11, 2019 - 8:44am

Doctor J

I agree only with the Trump predictions. Doctor J's premise is that the currently out of control spending and printing of money is able to maintain the economic status quo and prices of PMs, indefinitely. It simply won't happen. The economy is already slipping fast as clearly seen by slumping real estate and car sales, not to mention the untenable student loan fiasco. And the quality of corporate bonds are falling at a dangerous pace toward junk ratings because of the rising 'zombie' status of corporations. The markets and corporations have become the largest ponzi schemes in history - the need to borrow more to service existing debt.


Apr 11, 2019 - 9:09am

Langron

Not indefinitely, just longer than we think possible. I base this belief (and it is a belief I'll quickly release when evidence warrants) on my surprise in how long they have suppressed price already, as well as the ability of rhetoric to shape the minds of the uneducated. But I agree with you that fiat money will fail one day. Fiat relies on public trust in its value. Propaganda can keep that trust falsely placed in the fiat, as long as inflation remains hidden...

matt_
Apr 11, 2019 - 9:32am

Assange arrested

This is disgusting:

https://twitter.com/MashiRafael/status/1116289091061075968

The United States government is completely out of control. I was snookered by Trump. Donald Trump is a buffoon who will never change a damn thing.

I would love to be on the jury for Assange's trial.

lakedweller2
Apr 11, 2019 - 9:44am

Fed Bullard

Speech: " Fed faces challenges from low inflation."

Obviously he is over paid.

canary
Apr 11, 2019 - 9:45am

It's difficult for me to imagine...

Gold breaking out above $1400 this year...There is still hope for the second half...yet fading.

I still expect to see $1260 gold before summer. Not buying anything ....Trying to keep my distance from that black hole.

lakedweller2
Apr 11, 2019 - 9:52am

Wall Street CEO Message To Congress

(See PMs Today). We appreciate all the bailouts and under-the-table support, and will continue transferring wealth and raising our salaries. Please know that we do not possess a sense of guilt or a sense of fiduciary responsibility.
eastofwest
Apr 11, 2019 - 10:45am

GDX ...

... Seems the Miners got most of the sell off yesterday ... Acting better than I expected in the early going ...

langron Doctor J
Apr 11, 2019 - 11:10am

Doctor J

Ok, understood. I should not have used the word 'indefinitely'. I respect your opinion. But I think there's just too many economic and financial explosions occurring now to think the PM suppression can go on until 2024.

Croaker
Apr 11, 2019 - 11:18am

De Grey

Any holders out there know what's up with it being up 100%+ today?

CC Horses
Apr 11, 2019 - 11:43am

Treasure Hunter Found Bronze Roman Coins

There have been discoveries of Roman coins in Japan as well as in North America. There has even been the discovery of a Roman sword in Newfoundland. Now, a treasure hunter with a metal detector uncovered seven Roman coins that washed up on a beach here in the Tampa region. This is strong evidence that there must have been a Roman shipwreck off the coast of Tampa or in nearby proximity.

These coins are of the 4th century from the era of Constantine. They are bronze and of no particular rarity. In such a condition, they are really worthless. Nevertheless, there certainly seems to have been Roman ships that crossed the Atlantic long before even the Vikings, no less Columbus.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/history/ancient-history/roman-coins-w...

Orange
Apr 11, 2019 - 11:51am

Chinese Guy

Never heard about this guy, however interesting to hear a Chinese, assume, analyst talking about gold. Difficult to understand until you tune into his accent. (edit, he is talking about what Jim Willie is saying, so you can skip it as we all know Willie.)

Confirm 100% April 2019 🚨 Global Economic Reset Has Begun & The Gold Price 3-Times Higher
lakedweller2 Croaker
Apr 11, 2019 - 11:54am

DeGrey

Hot Copper is showing a Trading Halt pending news. Trading Halt will last until Monday Australian unless news released sooner. Speculation is drilling results.

Google Hot Copper with symbol DEG and can read discussions.

cashonly
Apr 11, 2019 - 11:58am

Just an opinion

The last 10 years have seen the central banks, lead by the FED, reduce interest rates to the lowest levels in 500 years of recorded banking history. Obviously this was the reaction to avoiding the big bottom that would have occurred otherwise in response to the great credit bubble crash of 2008. If they can keep the credit/debt growing forever, as they have, I'll die a crazy man - but with a nice stack. My humblest belief is that when they see the end of the road for this 'cycle' the only solution will be helicopter money to the masses to keep the ship afloat (universal basic income), as the credit/debt economic driver will have reached its limitation. I believe the cracks are starting to appear and it is global. If you have followed Mike Maloney you know his: Deflation, Inflation, Real Deflation, Real Inflation/Hyperinflation theory. I think we are entering the Real Deflation phase. Shouldn't be long before the FED/CB's take us into the final phase. Good day!

Maestro
Apr 11, 2019 - 12:14pm

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