The setup for the big trade

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Tue, Mar 12, 2019 - 8:25am
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Veeh gets it

Though it is not his main point for his conclusion, he sees it. His comments prior to the conclusion confirm this.

The mouse won. Captain marvel did well at the box office

What is/was/will be the long term cost of the resources expended?

Any who watched this unfold, using the sources I introduced, has seen realtime the process of relentless negative review deletions, positive review bots(activists as well as copy&paste) not being deleted, resulting in the audience voting score for this movie crawing upwards slowly as the days pass.

More people have had their eyes opened as this political mind hypno trick moved into mainstream cinematic sales on the main Street.

And if the cost exceeds the return and gains made, (failing a major gain or donation) the mouse/organization/movement/fad/psyop is past its peak and into decline, just not visibly so as of yet.

It will neither collapse nor disappear, just be counterattacked on more fronts by more middle grounders moving to anti-manipulation "range" edge.

Or ... to put it in trading range terms .... when the cost of selling it down from top of range (price x volume sold) exceeds the gain (width of the range) from buying it back at range lows, then the range(game) must reform at a new price level after a range breakout.

The Mouse will therefore have to lower its cost of production or reduce retail selling price. Inevitably. And with this in mind, take a look at the quality of CGI sequences in that movie. The low cost production rule has already been implemented. This was a rearguard action, the radical feminist StarWars fiasco was not a shot across their bows. It was a direct hit. The damage is carefully concealed for now. Longer term damage not arrived yet - shall we say "Possibly in the pipeline".

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Mar 12, 2019 - 8:40am
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Tony Caldaro RIP

Anthony Caldaro passed away recently.

Elliott Wave people will be familiar with his work, a significant portion of which was generously made freely available at his website: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/

I see that at the moment his site seems to be continuing via family and colleagues efforts. (For the record his count (long term) has the DOW in early wave three up, a sub wave two down to clear the way to higher). He more often than not made a unique count, differing from most other interpreters of EW, and always interesting for scenario weighing.

eg: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/chartbook/601084933

Tony will be missed.

Ar dheis Dé go raibh a anam.

(English: May his soul be seated on God's right hand / God rest his soul )

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Mar 12, 2019 - 11:22pm
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ES daily


This is the bears' best shot. Selling p2 on the MLH after a zoom down at p1.

Wed, Mar 13, 2019 - 4:10pm
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Crickets and tumbleweed, yes

Crickets and tumbleweed, yes indeed. All of a sudden I ended up in this position, being pushed through some sort of a sequence hanging upside down at the moment. It is related to water and to be honest it has been raining in Sweden ever since.

The Hanged Man (XII) is the twelfth trump or Major Arcana card in most traditional Tarot decks. It is used in game playing as well as in divination. ... In other interpretations, The Hanged Man is a depiction of the Norse god Odin, who suspended himself from a tree in order to gain knowledge.

Is it Ok to write about inner gold or is this thread an outer Gold only? Me thinks the price of gold is not only showing the price of the physical metal but also the price of "spiritual" gold or the lack of it.

Thu, Mar 14, 2019 - 10:12am
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NIFTY -1 month plus later

1st rule of golf, Never take your head off the ball.

1st rule of the setup, Never turn down pro bono advice.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/691829#comment-691829

argentus maximus wrote:

As a contribution to the Setup cause, I will post this here, and everybody can sink their teeth into the matter. Being constructed using prop trading methodology I can't release an illustrative chart - but I can still give some pro bono analysis, so read on.

I posted 3/12 as an inflection point. Two days ago. Yes, it's planetary data until I get up to speed on volume analysis. Haven't updated chart.

Turning back up. Rally underway, 17 days in progress w/bullish posture makings higher/highs.

Thu, Mar 14, 2019 - 11:24am (Reply to #11755)
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Solsson wrote:

Solsson wrote:

Is it Ok to write about inner gold or is this thread an outer Gold only? Me thinks the price of gold is not only showing the price of the physical metal but also the price of "spiritual" gold or the lack of it.

You can't separate the two.

This alchemical esoteric process of making lead to gold happens in everyday life, everyday interactions, how clean your house is, your financial blueprint.... The mundane things. Probably even what we post. It's all part of you. Making $ in gold or whatever type of $ you resonate with requires meeting yourself and encountering your limitations. my study of Gann to date tells me that he knew as much about himself as he did financial markets and natural law. Livermore and many others were no slouches either.

He knew what to trade, when to trade (based on inner vibration), where to locate his business, and most likely he knew when he was going to die. And it sounds like greed was never an issue w/hin because I understand he stopped trading in the later years of his life.

I've even witnessed two people with the same information, have completely different results. One successful, one near disastrous. Know thyself relates to every endeavor. Trader know thyself, stacker know thyself etc.... Your inner life is reflected to people on the outer. U must be willing to tackle your demons to be successful. Scary stuff!! It really is, that's why great traders are few and far between but take full responsibility for their gains and losses and NEVER blame outside forces. At least I haven't read anybody that won while cursing outside forces.

Is there a cross and an upside down eye of Horus in that picture?

Thu, Mar 14, 2019 - 12:04pm (Reply to #11755)
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Solsson wrote:

Solsson wrote:

Is it Ok to write about inner gold or is this thread an outer Gold only? Me thinks the price of gold is not only showing the price of the physical metal but also the price of "spiritual" gold or the lack of it.

This is extremely likely true, since gold tracks civilization. Hard currency being a strong sovereign, soft or weak currency being a failing sovereign or a sovereign threatened by another, and gold is the mirror though which currencies are seen for what they are. Despite massive reeducation by central bankers for decades, and yes, they have actually talked about education of nations for their benefit in conversations recorded between each other.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Mar 14, 2019 - 3:08pm
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I don't stop by often enough

I prefer to just let the forums run their course without my interruption.

However, I just wanted to publicly thank AM again for maintaining this forum. He's been at it now FOR OVER SIX YEARS and if anyone knows how difficult that is...it's me.

So thanks again, AM, for all your contributions to TFMR. Let's just hope The Big Trade realizes itself in the not-too-distant future.

Thu, Mar 14, 2019 - 5:08pm (Reply to #11758)
silver66
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since gold tracks civilization

AM,over the years many (including myself) would say gold is for when the population losses confidence in government money.

I take it that with your SJW posts and your nudging the forum to see polarities in society, that gold could also be valuable when civilization loses faith in it self temporarily and payng attention to societial trends is another usefull tool towards the set up for the big trade

Silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Fri, Mar 15, 2019 - 7:45am
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Boardroom coups

There are different forms of corporation, but contests for control self synchronize.

Note this report:

https://www.ktvu.com/facebook-instant/reputed-gambino-boss-francesco-franky-boy-cali-gunned-down

Implication via application of the principle of synchronicity:

Inside the BIS, inside the IMF, World bank et al the same exchanges of power are being currently fought, with varying degrees of violence according to the "players" and "value" involved.

This will be the case even down to political party upper echelon control, leaders of religious groups, and so on all the way down to the local football team coach job.

If an open market for stock exists, allowing possible hostile stock acquisition, then this is a vulnerability. A vulnerability to the public, legislators not under control, or other power entities operating in public.

In which case public profile must be reduced by those who control such a corporation.

So these following type events would be a reaction to perceived ""threats to the status quo" by oligarchs (and the various services supporting them).

And we begin to see this:

Facebook:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613084/zuckerbergs-new-privacy-essay-shows-why-facebook-needs-to-be-broken-up/

And this:

Rothschild Taking Swiss Bank Private! Warns of Uncertain 2019

Remember what they do is telling us plenty about what they perceive. In short, something else has motivated them to make these actions.

Losses have been taken, their organizations damaged, and this type of action is a defensive reaction to what has already occurred, and is perceived to be increasing, by the characters involved.

They move to avoid damage and profit from changing situations. This is evolution of extremely well informed parties towards the next phase.

72 years ago ... currency (triumphant sovereigns dividing up the world and carving up the defeated nations for profit, control, and future asset stripping/exporting to ) negotiations were coming to a conclusion.

IMF, World bank, IBRD were decided upon in 1944-45 and opened for business during 1946-47.

1946-47 + 72 = 2018-19

72 Yrs is a war cycle

(by definition that is also a sovereign cycle, and a bond cycle)

So for control of bond markets, we might look at issuance of bonds, and the source of control over that:

1930 is now 89 years ago. You might have seen that number mentioned once or twice in Setup forum, and be appreciative of its significance.

1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55, ... 89, .... 144,233, etc.

Every footprint in the future depends upon the size of the giant making it, and the distance into the past that particular giant's last footprint can be seen.

Activity is rising, and asset valuations will reflect the changes being implemented as strategic assets are disposed of and new ones acquired.

And ... maybe readers are now beginning to see just how many huge historical events converged (to re-occur in modern context or possibly opposite polarity) during the current several-month period.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Mar 15, 2019 - 8:11am (Reply to #11759)
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Craig, Argentus Maximus, Setup

Turd Ferguson wrote:

I prefer to just let the forums run their course without my interruption.

However, I just wanted to publicly thank AM again for maintaining this forum. He's been at it now FOR OVER SIX YEARS and if anyone knows how difficult that is...it's me.

So thanks again, AM, for all your contributions to TFMR. Let's just hope The Big Trade realizes itself in the not-too-distant future.

Thanks for your kind comments Craig.

It's appreciated.

Back in January 2013, when I contacted you and asked could I make a forum with a different take on things, and you said "Go ahead", I little thought I would be still here now.

I had a vague notion that I would try to manage people's expectations and drop insight (as I do my best to gain such) for an 89 month bear swing, hopefully get good entry points, and then fade away into incognito-dom.

But clarity never arrives - because geopolitcal reality is always moving, always changing, and we never get the memo from the top, only misinformation, misdirection, and control nudging in negative (for us) directions and behaviours.

So its all still just as murky now as it was six years ago. I have merely gotten through the time in between without taking significant damage, while becoming more robust for what comes. And it's a running project still.

I hope all you Setup readers feel the same way.

And thanks Craig, for providing this forum where our discussions, scenario building, and thought experiments can take place.

Back then I looked around for a place to speak from, and yours seemed the best. Today I am happy I made that choice back then, and that you received my email so positively.

Norm

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Mar 18, 2019 - 9:57am (Reply to #11762)
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AM

The socialists are in control of Europe and gold goes nowhere. They probably will be in control of the US and the rest of the world and It will not matter. The young people around the world could care less about gold. Why bother?

kentucky
Mon, Mar 18, 2019 - 3:34pm (Reply to #11763)
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kentucky wrote:

kentucky wrote:

The socialists are in control of Europe and gold goes nowhere. They probably will be in control of the US and the rest of the world and It will not matter. The young people around the world could care less about gold. Why bother?

The group in control will be ousted, removed, or self destruct when the right inflection arrives.

Historically (referring to the 1970-80s here) left wing governments end up in power towards the latter part of a stagflation. Money runs out for the elites and nation states and they start doing things about finding new marks with deep pockets. That's when resource wars get going, to steal other nations' gold, oil, energy, crops, revenues, and also when the forces to destroy the resource nation states' stability increases.

We're there.

After that stage, a winner emerges for the coming period, the money gets reset to favour that new power (or power group !) and the governments swings away from the bankrupt leftwing governments and rightist governments get back in power.

The new powers can control everything with emergency powers, commodities get capped, including gold (unless it is the new currency which I don't expect), new energy gets rolled out and it all starts again.

Using this as a pattern of sorts, a question arises: are the cities bankrupt yet? No. Another is: Have the IMF, World bank, et al bailed out the weak states yet by issuing new credit? Partially but it's not endemic.

The difficulty is, this is a rolling process, not a wave that crashes all in one moment. There is no sign of the new currency yet. The winner has not emerged from the fray. So negotiations continue and jockeying for positional advantage outside the negotiations also continues.

And at this time gold is almost back to it's decade trading mid range against US dollar. But you look at gold against other prime currencies and a different story is visible. This is the principle of breadth.

So as a measure of breadth, and I have not done this at moment of typing, how many currencies is the gold price rising in, and how many currencies is it falling in?

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Mar 19, 2019 - 4:24pm
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Green Lantern

I love that you follow Gann's work. I'd love to keep seeing updates from your analysis.

Tue, Mar 19, 2019 - 7:11pm
silver66
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clarification AM

So negotiations continue and jockeying for positional advantage outside the negotiations also continues.

Can you provide some insight as to what negotiations for a new currency look like. I don't think they are on the front page, they probably are, but I don't know how to read the tea leaves.

a few nudges or historical situtations, so we can see how these negotiations worked in the past or are heppening in the present. this will allow us to have our radar turned on.

Thanks

Silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Wed, Mar 20, 2019 - 7:31am
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follow up to negotiations

AM you have suggested that gold will not be the next currency. The problem right now with the US dollar is it is the medium of exchange and the store of value. So the next currency could split those two functions ? ?

If the next currency is crypto then this article could be "telling " to the negotiations . Crypto needs technology does it not?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-19/trumps-beijing-blockade-backfi...

Is part of the world not ready to give washington a back door pass into all its data that is currently in US produced chips

Silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Thu, Mar 21, 2019 - 6:30am
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Bond yield inversion and FED

Bond yield inversion and FED has put an end to rate hikes, both in favor for gold. Yes I am bullish Gold for the next seven years.

Look at Gold weekly, this golden serpent is a man with a plan!

coiling it's body ready to shoot away and bite a central banksters butt injecting it with golden venom.

Other than that a huge environment debate at work, it's me against 20 other climate change fanatics.
I did some research yesterday and it was quite easy to find some good arguments against the alarmists.

Greta Thunberg a Swedish climate alarmist, the woman of the year in Sweden. She looks like a twelve year old kid. I feel sorry for her, brainwashed by her parents.

It is not like we have not tried this before, look at the climate fascist from 1972:
"We got ten years to stop the catastrophe"

and the 1199 islands of Maldives

30 yrs. later, global warming still hasn't sunk Maldives

Saturday, September 22, 2018

Michael F. Haverluck (OneNewsNow.com

After alerting the world in September 1988 that the Maldive islands of the Indian Ocean would be submerged by rising seas in less than three decades – due to the so-called first effects of man-made global warming – officials of the United Nations and associated climatologists are scratching their heads that the island chain is still there.

A report derived from government officials’ predictions shocked the world 30 years ago, warning that the tropical paradise archipelago would soon suffer the same fate as the lost city of Atlantis.

“A gradual rise in average sea level is threatening to completely cover this Indian Ocean nation of 1196 small islands within the next 30 years,” the Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported in September 1988.

Scare tactics or numbers gone wrong?

Serving alongside the UN at the time, Environmental Affairs Director Hussein Shihab gave precise “calculations” about the extent to which the Maldives would become submerged.

“An estimated rise of 20 to 30 centimeters in the next 20 to 40 years could be ‘catastrophic’ for most of the islands, which were no more than a meter above sea level,” Shihab told AFP at the time.

The alarmism did not stop there, as many islanders were led to believe by affiliated of the global peacekeepers that they had just several years to evacuate the island before it became inhabitable.

“The article went on to suggest the Maldives – along with its 200,000 inhabitants – could ‘end’ sooner than expected if drinking water supplies dry up by 1992 ‘as predicted,’” The Daily Caller News Foundation (DCNF) reported. “Today, more than 417,000 people live in the Maldives.”

Power the Future Executive Director Daniel Turner mocked the alarmists at the UN and their affiliated climatologists.

“Call Noah and have him build another Ark,” the leader of the pro-energy group mused while speaking with DCNF. “Bring out the Coast Guard. Send all the boogie boards and floaties you can find – for the Maldives is going down!”

‘Poster’ islands for global warming

For decades, the UN has claimed that the Maldives would be the first to go under the sea once the “catastrophic” effects of climate change induced by human pollutants began.

“The Maldives are among the island nations often held up by United Nations officials as being on the ‘front-lines’ of man-made global warming,” DCNF Energy Editor Michael Bastasch noted.

In fact, Republic of Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed addressed other world leaders at the UN General Assembly Summit on Climate Change in August 2009 to alarm attendees that entire populations across the world will drown as glaciers melt – and increase the ocean depth by just 4.5 feet – because of manmade airborne pollution.

"You know that with a sea-level rise of over 1.5 meters, hundreds of millions of people would be dead,” Nasheed told the UN Chronicle days after speaking at the summit. “They would simply be wiped out."

Behind the dire warnings of the Green agenda is reportedly the green glow of money, but the alarmism was not enough to quickly secure the exorbitant funds ultra-environmentalists were trying to pander from climate-change believing nations across the globe.

“The island nation was among the first to apply for Green Climate Fund aid, but the funding hasn’t been flowing, according to The New York Times,” Bastach explained.

Just last year, Maldives Energy and Environment Minister Thoriq Ibrahim made it clear that he wanted immediate access to funds … before it was too late.

“That’s too long to wait,” Ibrahim insisted to The New York Times in November. “There’s no use having a fund somewhere if you can’t access it quickly.”

However, 30 years of panic did not usher in the consuming seas or the desired funding for the UN, as the Maldives are still perched right above sea level, with its beautiful sandy beaches still beckoning tourists to lay down their towels and unfold their beach chairs – not to head for high ground … if there were any.

“The Maldives are indeed low-lying islands with its highest point only reaching about eight feet above sea level,” Bastach informed. “But obviously, decades-old warnings [that] the Maldives were on the verge of being swallowed by the seas didn’t pan out.”

Getting bigger, not smaller?

Despite what many climatologists report concerning rising sea levels, research conducted by New Zealand scientists on Tavalu’s nine atolls and 101 reef islands between 1971 and 2014 indicates that the Maldives and other coral islands in the region are actually getting larger – not shrinking and sinking.

Thu, Mar 21, 2019 - 2:32pm
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Climate change: Scare tactics or numbers gone wrong?

Solsson: The fundamental change I like to cite is the Keeling curve. It is well established and incontrovertible.

It predicts that the Earth will undergo warming over the next several centuries, as global systems are buffered and there is considerable lag in moving to a new equilibrium once carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is stabilized.

There are obvious problems in explaining this to the general population, particularly since this experiment has not been run before. Thus some of the predictions have proven to be incorrect due to a lack of understanding of issues beyond increasing temperature. The study that you cite on Tuvalu found that the majority of islands (73.5%) expanded in area while there was erosion on a subset of smaller islands. I wonder if you read the original paper which reported a sea level rise of 3.9+/- 0.4 mm/yr over four decades at the Funafuti tide gauge or whether you read a report that informed you of only part of the data slanted to support a viewpoint?

In retrospect the critical technological change was the invention and development of the Haber process in the second decade of the last century. Fixation of nitrogen into ammonia fertilizer allowed the population to be fed and expand beyond the billion present at the beginning of the 20 th century, thereby increasing beyond the likely 2-3 billion sustainable carrying capacity of Earth for our species. We are now impacting our environment well beyond simple climate change. Basic biology infers that when a species expands way beyond the sustainable limit that the population will collapse. Malthus was, I think, the first to point out that exponential population growth was not sustainable, leading to disease, famine etc.

As AI obviates any need for human work and as our social structure makes it likely that the rentiers will control the means of manufacturing I see the possibility of wage slaves destroying themselves much as many Russians were said to die of vodka poisoning as the USSR collapsed. Isn't that the reason for the fentanyl epidemic anyway and the destruction of national, social cohesion by mass immigration?

So what does any of this have to do with trading? Well a deflation in the population will lead to general deflation while the tsunami of AI may render us as little more than pets. Maybe our role in the Universe is to give rise to the Borg.

“Don't walk behind me; I may not lead. Don't walk in front of me; I may not follow. Just walk beside me and be my friend.” ― Albert Camus
Fri, Mar 22, 2019 - 11:45am
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Looking for all the bond bears!!

Look at this, new recent lows on bond yields!!! What happened, I thought betting that yields were going higher was like shooting fish in a barrel.

This is just the start of deflating the debt away, we're going to see negative to 0% on bond yields. Low rates are good , correct?

Think about it, how do you make negative to 0% bond yields attractive for investors? You kill economic growth and inflation!!!!!

Yes, that's right. We're going into the final economic holes. This is where credit dries up for the peasants and social programs get cut. We're already hearing about Trump's budget to cut spending on social programs and cutting off credit for student loans, this is just the start.

What happened to the US dollar trading lower on the Fed giving up? Nope, the US dollar is trading even higher now.

The Elite have no choice, they must bring the economy into a perpetual economic recession with negative rates of interest. They have their debt slaves and they're not going to be able to refinance at lower rates, only The Elite can take advantage of the lower interest rates.

What about gold? IF gold trades over $1500 oz The Elite will panic and start the massive social cuts on the peasants, that will quickly bring the price lower. I don't think gold will even be given the chance to trade at those levels, deflation will be the new theme.

There is no "socialist" that's going to piss on this new party, the peasants are going to experience life without the government credit card. Will they get upset and angry with this new lifestyle? Yes, but nothing is going to change this new reality. We're going to be in this mess for generations to come, negative rates are never going away.

The best trade? Go long the 30 year bond, it will be trading below 1% in 2 years.

Fri, Mar 22, 2019 - 1:24pm
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Bonds and swing lengths

Speaking for myself, I regard the bond markets as the most chancy highest risk markets. this is because the Central Banks have achieved a state of immunity, and this allows them (in their corporate form) to produce a "tail" event without having to pay a personal or individual price for their crookedness.

As regards the bond highs/interest lows, I called a high a couple of years ago. But, a reversal of a 150-320 years bond bull can not be expected to reverse in one business cycle.

I suggested, then and since, a massive trading range for bonds, the swings of which most people would call bull or bear markets due to their size.

The bond market swings will tend to be 4 and a half or nine years in duration. There are some other cycles which obscure that and make it inadequate for full investment strategizing.

Q3 2019, Q4 2020 and Q2-Q3 2022 are the approximate pivot times, broadly speaking, as of a point of view formed at the present moment.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
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