(For newsletter subscribers, this is a free public post.)
We've got a lot to do today so it all begins with an early start. And that's just fine because there's a lot going on.
Let's dive right in as the Comex just opened and already the digital versions of the metals are getting driven back lower after having the audacity to rally in London on a slightly stronger euro--weaker Pig. At one point a few minutes ago, CDG reached all the way back up to $1318. However, that was just before the Comex open and today's enforcement of the NEEEE Rule.
But, whatever. Even at $1316, that's far better than the alternative and still only 1% off the post-Powell highs of two weeks ago. Speaking of CGP, don't forget that he has a public appearance today at a college in Mississippi. As a poor sharecropper's son like Navin Johnson, I'm sure that CGP has all sorts of perspective to share regarding the "economic development in high poverty rural communities". While it's likely to be a non-deal, you never know what might come up in the "discussion" so keep an eye on the headlines and Twitter later this morning.
Let's see, what else is going on? After falling yesterday, palladium is charging right back today in an effort to either make a double top at $1420 or move to new alltime highs. Which will it be? We'll know soon enough.
In political news, it appears that a deal may be in the works to avoid another US .gov shutdown. And it also appears that the "deadline" for some sort of settlement in the trade war is being pushed back, too. It's all good theater, I suppose, if you're into that sort of thing.
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/top-lawmakers-meet-to-re...
- https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-12/china-trade-deal-deadline-will...
Far more important news is this...How many times have you heard me discuss business and consumer confidence and how it will wane due to natural forces and political discord in Washington? Well, here you go: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-12/small-business-optimism-plunge... And this is important because less-confident consumers spend less and less-confident business owners hire less. Understand this dynamic and you begin to understand how/why all of the political gridlock and impeachment stuff eventually begins to drive the economy downward. Combine this with the inverted yield curve, etc, and you get the looming recession.
And this is important news, too. Recall last month when the PBOC suddenly announced a 10 mt addition to their gold reserves after allegedly not adding anything for nearly two years? Well, apparently this is now a new trend as the Chinese added another 12 mts in January. Here's a link and thanks to "Blythesshrink" for finding it: https://www.rt.com/business/451259-china-expands-gold-reserves/
OK, so in the time it took to type this post, we went from looking to have a good day to all the way back to zilch. Mind you, this is while the POSX hasn't moved and bond yields have actually fallen. But, again, whatever. I've got too much to do today to get all worked up and frustrated by it. In the big picture, nothing much has changed from the write-up we gave Sprott yesterday: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-next-goals-for-gold-and-silver-pric...
If you want something to watch, $1318 and then $1320 remain resistance levels in the very short-term and, not surprisingly, $15.80 is the level to watch in CDS. Tomorrow will bring the latest Consumer Price Index and far more interesting action and reaction.
Have a great day but remember that today's podcast will likely be posted a little later than usual as I'm traveling back to MamaFerg's today.
TF
