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TFMR Podcast - Thursday, January 31

This is a free public podcast. Given the circumstances, you should take time to listen.


It was a decent day as a follow-up to the fireworks of yesterday. And now we await the BLSBS tomorrow, aware of the fact that we've had a pretty nice 5-day run and we may be due for a brief pullback.

But for today, we simply assess where we've been, where we are and where we're heading. As to the latter, the biggest signal of future Fed policy is coming from the bond market, so that's where we begin the discussion today.

Though we don't want to overlook the importance of the POSX:

We check the updated charts of both CDG and CDS:

And we close with another check on the mining shares.

Thanks for listening and be ready for a very interesting end to the week tomorrow.


p.s. Due to the circumstances, I thought we'd make this a public podcast as an example of what we do here every day. Membership at TFMR is just $12/month or 40¢/day and a subscription in 2019 has never been more valuable. Therefore and for a limited time, all new subscribers have an opportunity to receive half off their first month subscription. Simply visit this page: www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe and then enter the coupon code MAXOUT2019 at checkout. Now's the time to join us at TFMR. 2019 and 2020 are going to be terrific years for precious metal investors. Don't miss out on the fun!


Jan 31, 2019 - 5:47pm


Yes! Top of the podium! I can see Russia's gold stack from here . . .

Jan 31, 2019 - 6:25pm


Back before 2008 I felt something was wrong in our country but there was no ‘connect’ for me on the internet to help realize what is was. Then the collapse of 2008 occurred and the internet lit up. I would eventually find a spot called Zerohedge that was filled with articles that kept me very busy and fed my craving for understanding what was going on; I felt I was getting the truth or rather the real news. I also read the comments section as a bonus and there were some great postings/comments. One particular poster in the ZH comment section called himself Turd Ferguson commented on gold. Why gold?, I began gravitating toward his posts as I just didn’t understand the gist of gold. I then began researching gold and not skipping over gold related articles as I did before. The more I read the more I became educated of not just gold but also the monetary system, it was then TF’s posts made sense to me.

TF’s posts began to slow down at ZH. I would eventually find TFM and became a member before I purchased any PMs. The reason I purchased the PMs was based on my own education/beliefs and not TF’s opinion. Never, not even one time, do I remember TF ever telling me to buy PMs. The decision was mine and mine alone and it was a decision that I am still very glad I made. My investment into PMs is not a about a quick profit but an insurance policy against a very abused, very long in the tooth, fiat currency system loaded with debt. Being a member at TFM has given me an amazing education but also affirmed a crazy belief that crossed my mind a long time ago: is it controlled? I have no problem believing the control/manipulation is real but also the reason as to why – Gresham’s law. Real money will destroy the banker’s free lunch. In fact years back my belief was “is everything controlled?”. Just watching the FED, the stock market, the MSM, etc. as well as reading some great posts by all here gave me my answer.

Years back men paid to subscribe to Playboy as they like to read the articles. Me? I never subscribed but I did like to just look at the pictures, I skipped the articles. As of today I am much older and subscribe to TFM. For me it is mentally gratifying to be around like minded folks. We are all on the same level, connected and in tune (most of the time). My subscription allows TF to work full time toward doing what he does best and that enriches me. TFM brings me sanity from what seems to be an insane world. Therefore I am not leaving. The new website is great and Ron is to be commended for not only doing a great job in general but also his amazing attentiveness and quick rectification of the problems we encountered as the new site progressed.

I appreciate this site and your hard work, effort and dedication Mr. Hemke. Things are starting to get exciting and someday we will all be taking a victory lap together!

Jan 31, 2019 - 6:39pm

Thanks Turd.

Taking Charlie's spot.


Jan 31, 2019 - 6:46pm


okay I admit I am a single white hetero male. Is it just me or are you using software to track my preferences?

Today I am seeing an advert for beautiful polish women that want to date me. Yesterday it was Russian girls.\

WTF is going on here. Is it that the only way a guy can run an online business is to get into the rabbits hole

of suckering hot blooded males with bait?

Jan 31, 2019 - 6:59pm

everything is proceeding as i have foreseen:)

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LAf0QnLFS7Q" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Jan 31, 2019 - 7:19pm


Those google ads are personally predicated by the existing cookies on your computer.

For example, you'd get fishing ads if you visited fishing sites all the time.

In this case, you get "date hot polish women" ads because....

cashonly brolgaboy
Jan 31, 2019 - 7:26pm

I'm the one who likes the pictures.......

where are mine? I don't see them?

SilverX3 TF
Jan 31, 2019 - 7:50pm


Don't blame that on Turd's ads. Brolgaboy you're a bad boy 😂

Jan 31, 2019 - 8:08pm
Jan 31, 2019 - 8:37pm


simply not the case. Not a big deal but really what the heck?

Jan 31, 2019 - 8:57pm
Jan 31, 2019 - 9:06pm

How About That USD/CNY

You just never know when the dollar gets strong. And... gold goes down.

indiana rod
Jan 31, 2019 - 9:13pm


It appeared that something changed last Friday. Could one of the reasons be the news that, according to Goldseek, Central Banks bought more gold in 2018 than any year since 1967, 651.5 tonnes, 74 % more than 2017.

Jan 31, 2019 - 9:18pm

Sokoman Iron?

Does anyone know what happened with Sokoman Iron today? Looks like panic selling on a press release that raises some concern but not worthy of a full on panic. I'm beginning to think that maybe I missed something important and am now holding shares of hope after a 38% drop today? Sprott owns part of the company, did anyone hear anything from him?

Craig, would you be willing/able to ask his views in the Sprott Weekly Wrap-up tomorrow?


Jan 31, 2019 - 9:21pm
Jan 31, 2019 - 9:41pm

Pharmacy Math??????

I have worked hard to avoid any pills from my local doctor. He said, a few years ago: "Your to fat, lose some weight". So I did. He said: "Your a1c is too high, lose weight and watch the carbs ", and I did. He said :Your blood pressure is too high and I want to put you on some pills", and they almost killed me.

So, it took some time, off of all pills, except I keep a supply of blood pressure medication in case of an emergency. I needed a refill today for my old medication had expired last year. They are expensive, 30 little pills for $95, but worth having "if" I eat 3 pizzas, a large bowl of chili, and a full rack of BBQ ribs. Ha! So, I told the Dr., "I would like a pill cutter, only taking half of a pill if I need one". He said that sounded good.

I headed to the pharmacy, they gave me only 15 pills instead of 30 for the same $95. They said it was still a 30 day supply even though I was only using half a pill that I would need to cut. Now that is how the system works.

silver66 Harley
Jan 31, 2019 - 9:55pm

sokomon iron

I apologize to the board

I bought 20,000 shares this morning at 9:45

my streak in jr's continues

I guess capital losses can offset those future gains

oy vey


Jan 31, 2019 - 10:03pm

Google ads are definitely

Google ads are definitely based on other sites you have visited. It may be an indirect connection, but Google is certainly analyzing your site visits and making assumptions about other things you might like to see.

For example, I recently looked for a pair of shoes online. What am I seeing now? Ads for boots, jeans, sweaters, etc. They are making a guess that because I looked for shoes, I might be looking for other clothes.

Jan 31, 2019 - 10:04pm

Ah, but Google has already

Ah, but Google has already said the next major version of Chrome will block ad blockers. And I'm sure the others will follow suit.

Jan 31, 2019 - 10:21pm


Jan 31, 2019 - 10:32pm
Jan 31, 2019 - 10:42pm

Google ads

I bought 2 suitcases online recently. Now I keep seeing ads for suitcases. When will the go$%^&ed AI realize I've already made the purchase?

Jan 31, 2019 - 10:46pm

TFMR admin

Just now I am seeing “find your ebony beauty here” I shit you not I am not into those kind of “girls “ nor have I ever searched for this. Really!! No biggy, except that I brought it up, partly in jest, now I am the villain!! Member since Day 1.

Grey Mare
Jan 31, 2019 - 10:54pm

polish and russian beauties

I simply must enter the fray to save Brolga's reputation - I agree with Scoremore that the choice of ads depicted on Turd's site is influenced by the ads on other sites you visit, not the sites themselves. Like Scoremore, I now use an adblocker but prior to that, ZeroHedge was always displaying ads for international beauties and, after visiting ZH, similar ads showed up on TMFR for me. I once teased Craig about it before I realized that the ads were following me around.


Jan 31, 2019 - 11:08pm

Gray mare

I’m not sure my reputation is worth saving, but thanks! I am still gonna say as far as google searches go, no way. Craig you have sold your soul!
Jan 31, 2019 - 11:29pm

All for a lousy couple hundred bucks a month

I guess my soul isn't worth much...

Jan 31, 2019 - 11:37pm

Oh for goodness sake Craig

Go to bed, it is late. I promise not to complain anymore. In return I will settle for a polish princesses. Please dm me for my address
Jan 31, 2019 - 11:48pm

Talking about pop up ads

Why do I keep getting these pics of Ocasio-Cortez, Erin Burnett, and Dana Perino popping up all the time?

Feb 1, 2019 - 12:27am

How to block the blocking of ad-blockers

I'm taking the ad war up to the next level with this:


It takes some tech savvy to set up, which is part of the reason it isn't (yet) being targeted by Google and others for blocking.

Google is evil and so are all of their "free" things like Chrome, Gmail, and Youtube. No offense to Turd, but I already paid for a subscription here, so I don't want to see ads. I also pay for my email service (fastmail.com). I pay for a server running owncloud to store and sync files instead of using Google drive or Dropbox. I also pay (through donations) to some podcasts and open source software that is otherwise free.

When you purchase a service, you are the customer. When you get a service for free, you are the product that is sold.

Feb 1, 2019 - 12:36am


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Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS