This Is Only Step One

This is a free public post. Given the circumstances, you should take time to read it.

Thu, Jan 31, 2019 - 11:54am

If you've been following along since late last year, then you know there is nothing about the current action, economic climate or Fed policy that is unexpected. Therefore, it's very important to note that this is still just the initial rally of 2019. There will always be pullbacks and mini-corrections but this is going to be a very good year for us so you must remain patient and engaged.

I suppose that I don't have to post this link again but I will just in case there are a few of you who missed it. This post was written on Thursday the 10th and posted on Monday the 14th. Like the "GAN2017" and the "Three Themes of 2018", this was meant to serve as your roadmap for the months ahead.

So here we are. As discussed in yesterday's podcast, Fed policy is changing precisely as we expected it to and now we are on course for future rate cuts and even a resumption of QE. Your key money shot from Powell's press conference? See below:

Anyway, there's no sense in rehashing the events of yesterday when there's so much going on today. Thus, let's dig in...

Today's economic data was poor again. Jobless claims soared but that was due to the US government shutdown. More important was the steep drop in the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. And don't be fooled by new home sales. This number only rose because prices fell dramatically.

The WGC is out with their annual gold demand report. You can read it here:

The key takeaway? Global central banks added the more gold to their reserves in 2018 than they had in over 50 years! See this: Again and as we repeatedly state, if sovereign nations are actively converting dollar reserves into physical gold, shouldn't YOU be doing the same?!?

As far as prices go, everything is following through nicely today...BUT...we are getting very near our initial rally price goals first laid out for you back in November. We expected a run in CDG to $1310-1330 and I have a high today of $1330.15. We expected CDS to move through $15, head toward the 200-day, move next to $16 and then finally to $16.40. I have a high today of $16.20 so we're getting close there, too.

Nothing would make me happier than to simply continue higher day after day but we all know that that's NOT how the Comex gold and silver markets operate. Additionally, if you're attempting to trade, NEVER forget this tried and true TFMR adage: "Always be prepared to sell some when things looks rosiest and but some when things look dismal". Tomorrow brings the BLSBS and it would be terrific if we could continue along and close the week above these levels. HOWEVER, if the BLSBS exceeds expectations by even a little, it will serve as an excuse for some Spec washing and a drop back to at least $1320. So, don't get complacent. (Of course, if you're simply stacking and holding as I am, mini-corrections in 2019 will simply serve as a prime opportunity to buy the dip.)

As mentioned above, Comex Digital Gold is now right at the top of the price target range that we first laid out over two months ago. As we discussed in yesterday's podcast, though an extra extension to $1337 would seem to make sense, this may be as far as we go for a little while.

As for Comex Digital Silver, I still think we get all the way to the 200-week and the 2016 downtrend line before The Banks attempt to slam the door. It will likely need the momentum of the coming mid-February bullish cross to break through in a few weeks.

It has gotten really late as I've been dealing with a bunch of MamaFerg details before and during the construction of this post. I'd better cut this short and stop here so that we can get this posted asap. However, be sure to check back later for your daily podcast summary and review as there are many more details we need to discuss regarding the metals and the shares.

More later,


p.s. Due to the circumstances, I thought we'd make this a public post as an example of what we do here every day. Membership at TFMR is just $12/month or 40¢/day and a subscription in 2019 has never been more valuable. Therefore and for a limited time, all new subscribers have an opportunity to receive half off their first month subscription. Simply visit this page: and then enter the coupon code MAXOUT2019 at checkout. Now's the time to join us at TFMR. 2019 and 2020 are going to be terrific years for precious metal investors. Don't miss out on the fun!

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 31, 2019 - 3:17pm


2nd phase drill results which focussed on the Western end of the trend did not prove up previous results to market expectations.

Phase 3 drilling has started and will continue through the remainder of the winter, which will be focussing on the eastern trend, where previous ultra high grades have been documented.

Essentially, if you're standing on the vein, phase 2 drilling looked left and pretty much saw, time to drill and look back right again with Phase 3

Its all part of delineating the resource, learning where to focus as you go. Would have been nice if there were huge results today....but no. They know there's gold there, the game is delineating it, and determining the feasability of the deposit. At a market cap of 16M (13M now roughly), It wont take much to send this the right direction.

Short selling in like fashion to stock pumping is rampant on Vancouver exchange. You have to have nerves of steel and do your research if you're going to play this game. Sprott throwing $3M at this tells you something.

Even on these "disappointing" results there was 9 meters yielding 70.29g/t

As always, do your own research.

Jan 31, 2019 - 3:47pm

Maestro Poor Timing

Just looking at buying in and then the price crash. I think I might defer my purchase.

Jan 31, 2019 - 3:51pm


40% drop is similar to GT Gold and a few others I can't remember. Makes me think there is a band of criminals running rampant on the Juniors.

In appreciation of the over reaction price, I added to Sokoman

Jan 31, 2019 - 4:10pm

Kirkland Lake . . .

closes again at an all-time high! I don't fault Turd for taking profits, but it's hard to sell against [strong upward] momentum. I'm looking like a freakin' genius for buying 2020 and 2021 Jan calls at strike prices of $30 and $35. If gold does anything close to what it should do this year, we're looking at a $50 price by Christmas -- wouldn't that be sweet! (Oh yeah, and I bought them on Dec 19, 2018, so it will be long term capital gains!) Ho ho ho . . .

Jan 31, 2019 - 4:24pm

already on the list for today's podcast

Will be a major topic of discussion.
Jan 31, 2019 - 4:24pm

On Sokoman...

daily volume average on the "Other OTC" is 28,000 shares. At about 15 cents a share, $4000 a day determines the price of this share. Today's volume is 581,000 shares on the sell side, and stock is down 36%. I assume there were similar losses on whatever other exchanges it traded on.

Common sense says that this stock is easily manipulated.

Jan 31, 2019 - 4:25pm



bp9291 TF
Jan 31, 2019 - 4:27pm



Jan 31, 2019 - 4:34pm


Sokoman traded 12 million on the Venture. US trading means nothing. buy the rumour sell the news. okay you have been educated.

Thomas More
Jan 31, 2019 - 4:50pm
Maestro mike97
Jan 31, 2019 - 4:56pm

Thank you for your valuable input

as stated, and as always,

do your own research.

Jan 31, 2019 - 5:18pm


Turd --

Looks like you made a good call on AU. It ripped through $14 easily today . . .

Jan 31, 2019 - 6:19pm


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

3/26 8:30 ET Housing Starts (Feb)
3/27 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Jan)
3/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP final guess
3/28 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Personal Income (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Consumer Spending and Core Infl. (Jan)
3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
3/29 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Feb)