This Is Only Step One

This is a free public post. Given the circumstances, you should take time to read it.

Thu, Jan 31, 2019 - 11:54am

If you've been following along since late last year, then you know there is nothing about the current action, economic climate or Fed policy that is unexpected. Therefore, it's very important to note that this is still just the initial rally of 2019. There will always be pullbacks and mini-corrections but this is going to be a very good year for us so you must remain patient and engaged.

I suppose that I don't have to post this link again but I will just in case there are a few of you who missed it. This post was written on Thursday the 10th and posted on Monday the 14th. Like the "GAN2017" and the "Three Themes of 2018", this was meant to serve as your roadmap for the months ahead.

So here we are. As discussed in yesterday's podcast, Fed policy is changing precisely as we expected it to and now we are on course for future rate cuts and even a resumption of QE. Your key money shot from Powell's press conference? See below:

Anyway, there's no sense in rehashing the events of yesterday when there's so much going on today. Thus, let's dig in...

Today's economic data was poor again. Jobless claims soared but that was due to the US government shutdown. More important was the steep drop in the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. And don't be fooled by new home sales. This number only rose because prices fell dramatically.

The WGC is out with their annual gold demand report. You can read it here:

The key takeaway? Global central banks added the more gold to their reserves in 2018 than they had in over 50 years! See this: Again and as we repeatedly state, if sovereign nations are actively converting dollar reserves into physical gold, shouldn't YOU be doing the same?!?

As far as prices go, everything is following through nicely today...BUT...we are getting very near our initial rally price goals first laid out for you back in November. We expected a run in CDG to $1310-1330 and I have a high today of $1330.15. We expected CDS to move through $15, head toward the 200-day, move next to $16 and then finally to $16.40. I have a high today of $16.20 so we're getting close there, too.

Nothing would make me happier than to simply continue higher day after day but we all know that that's NOT how the Comex gold and silver markets operate. Additionally, if you're attempting to trade, NEVER forget this tried and true TFMR adage: "Always be prepared to sell some when things looks rosiest and but some when things look dismal". Tomorrow brings the BLSBS and it would be terrific if we could continue along and close the week above these levels. HOWEVER, if the BLSBS exceeds expectations by even a little, it will serve as an excuse for some Spec washing and a drop back to at least $1320. So, don't get complacent. (Of course, if you're simply stacking and holding as I am, mini-corrections in 2019 will simply serve as a prime opportunity to buy the dip.)

As mentioned above, Comex Digital Gold is now right at the top of the price target range that we first laid out over two months ago. As we discussed in yesterday's podcast, though an extra extension to $1337 would seem to make sense, this may be as far as we go for a little while.

As for Comex Digital Silver, I still think we get all the way to the 200-week and the 2016 downtrend line before The Banks attempt to slam the door. It will likely need the momentum of the coming mid-February bullish cross to break through in a few weeks.

It has gotten really late as I've been dealing with a bunch of MamaFerg details before and during the construction of this post. I'd better cut this short and stop here so that we can get this posted asap. However, be sure to check back later for your daily podcast summary and review as there are many more details we need to discuss regarding the metals and the shares.

More later,


p.s. Due to the circumstances, I thought we'd make this a public post as an example of what we do here every day. Membership at TFMR is just $12/month or 40¢/day and a subscription in 2019 has never been more valuable. Therefore and for a limited time, all new subscribers have an opportunity to receive half off their first month subscription. Simply visit this page: and then enter the coupon code MAXOUT2019 at checkout. Now's the time to join us at TFMR. 2019 and 2020 are going to be terrific years for precious metal investors. Don't miss out on the fun!

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 31, 2019 - 11:56am


Podium gold on the final day of January!

It looks like silver got monkey-hammered when it approached $16.20 -- it got to $16.198 and then got taken back of the 'ol woodshed . . . Down $0.13 in 25 minutes! Big Red Candles.

Jan 31, 2019 - 12:02pm


Go go go

Angry Chef
Jan 31, 2019 - 12:10pm

Trump won’t accept trade deal unless China opens market to....

Trump won’t accept trade deal unless China opens market to manufacturers, bankers and farmers

Hmmmm...Let me understand this. Manufacturers make stuff. Farmers grow stuff. Bankers pull fairy dust out of their behind and charge us for it...." No deal for you round-eye " ! Reminds me China prior to the Opium Wars. The British didn't want to pay for goods coming from the East in Gold & Silver. So they offered the Asians pretty paper notes with a picture of Queen Victoria on them. And the British said: " You don't want Gold & Silver for your tea, ivory, silk, herbs etc....You want these beautiful paper notes instead "...." No deal for you round-eye ! You want tea, ivory, silk, herbs etc....You pay Gold & Silver " ! So the British did what the British do. Forced the Opium Wars on Asia. Invaded and stole as much Gold & Silver and replaced them with paper notes.

The more things change the more things stay the same. And here's a story of their Cousin...

silverflower RickshawETF
Jan 31, 2019 - 12:13pm


as usual.

Jan 31, 2019 - 12:17pm


On your TFMR homepage, the silver chart on the top right seems to be frozen at $15.75 All the others seem to be current . . .

Edit: OK, it's moving, but it's at $15.84 -- when you click on the link, it brings up the silver chart, which is at $16.08

Jan 31, 2019 - 12:18pm

Sokomon V.SIC

For those that are interested in more detail:


Newfoundland/Labrador based (secure operating region)

Sprott did a private placement of $3,000,000.00 for 20,000,000 units at $.15

Market Cap of only 16.3M (micro-cap play) Cash on hand is now $3.2 Million

From latest Press Release: Drill hole MH-18-39 returned a 5.10 m (core thickness) intercept averaging 124.20 g/t Au, including a 1.10 m* visible gold bearing quartz vein averaging 550.30 g/t Au. This intercept lies 35 m up-dip (above) drill hole MH-18-01 that returned 11.90 m averaging 44.96 g/t Au, including a high- grade vein that averaged 385.85 g/t Au over 1.35 m (true thickness of vein is believed to be 90% of core length). The 5.10 m interval, beginning at a down-hole depth of 79.40 m (50 m vertically), includes two 1.0 m samples above the high-grade vein that averaged 2.89 g/t Au, as well as two 1.0 m samples below the vein which averaged 11.15 g/t Au. Assays are pending for 12.80 metres of core up- hole and 4.50 metres of core down-hole from the reported 5.10 m interval. The high-grade vein included a 0.60 m core length sample that assayed 199.99 g/t Au and a lower, 0.50 m core length sample that assayed 970.69 g/t Au. (*Note: vein true thickness estimated to be 95% of reported thickness).

Microcap with a strong land position in the Moosehead Gold Project. Close proximity to the Trans Canada Highway / Services.

If you're looking for leverage and an exciting play, I would encourage everyone to research/do their own due research. This is of course, highly speculative.

Note: I hold a relatively large position. I have lived in Nfld. I know the region.

Jan 31, 2019 - 12:18pm

Inowars next in Mueller investigation?

I listened to this last night:

Apparently Roger Stone posted an internal letter from infowars that shows they were paying Jerome Corsi $15,000 per month, even though he wasn't working for them. Roger Stone claims it was "hush money", probably referencing Wikileaks.

They also said Infowars is involved in 5 different lawsuits. A judge allowed the plaintiffs access to years of financial records, emails, and text messages from Infowars. Trunews is speculating that the Feds may want to look at those records as well.

It seems Infowars has a target on their back. Alex Jones claimed in the Austin American Stateman that Infowars pulls in $45 million per year, and Alex Jones has a $2 million annual salary. All of the financial details will probably be made public, but it will be interesting to see if all that income is from selling food supplements and water filters.

Turd, maybe you should consider selling Super Male Vitality pills. It seems like there is a lot of money in that business.

RickshawETF silverflower
Jan 31, 2019 - 12:19pm


Who could have seen this coming ??? ROTFL

Jan 31, 2019 - 12:34pm

to close the week

Maybe my sample size of mkt people I follow on twitter is too low, but literally every single one of them who have any comments on the metals is calling for an immediate and deep pullback, for various reasons. Or they're completely skeptical about this runup into the 1360 resistance.

Could the contrarian position be to just to hold on and expect a further breakout tomorrow and into next week?

Good to see the open interest winding down and not as many calls being bought vs. puts. In fact, with yesterday's move, it was pretty much one to one call vs. put action.

Jan 31, 2019 - 12:42pm

Strong Sentiment

JNUG traders ain't following the $5 pullback in gold, supporting price within 2% of today's highs--evidence of strong sentiment among traders. Half way down to support at 1320.

indiana rod
Jan 31, 2019 - 12:43pm


With us today are those three formidable candidates for President, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown.

Kamala Harris--"Education is a fundamental right and we will guarantee that right with universal pre-K and debt free college."

Elizabeth Warren--"I thought of that first."

Kamala Harris--"Health care is a fundamental right and we will deliver that with medicare for all."

Elizabeth Warren--"I thought of that first."

Sherrod Brown-- "Could I say something..."

Kamala Harris --"I'm not done talking. We need to get rid of I . C. E. and make America like California, a sanctuary country."

Elizabeth Warren-- "I'm for that too."

Sherrod Brown--"Could I..."

Kamala Harris --"I'm not done talking. And every American should have a minimum income of at least $500.00 a month. We need to rebuild the middle class."

Elizabeth Warren--" I said that first. Didn't you see me drink beer like an ordinary person."

Sherrod Brown--"I..."

Kamala Harris --" I'm not done talking. Did you see the 20,000 people at my meeting when I announced I was running for President? Obama only had 18,000 at his announcement."

Elizabeth Warren --"Well, did you see my husband and dog following me in Iowa like I was an ordinary person?"

Sherrod Brown--"Listen! Ohio will vote for me instead of Trump. No Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio. And I'll beat him in his home state of New York too."

Kamala Harris--Any Democrat will beat him in New York. I'll win California and New York and that accounts for almost 100 electoral votes.

Sherrod Brown--"Well.... I would win California too."

Kamala Harris--"Give it up Sherrod. No one with bad hair has ever been elected President."

Jan 31, 2019 - 12:47pm

Next stop for the stock market

It now looks like all systems go for a test of the 200 day moving average.

Thomas More
Jan 31, 2019 - 12:49pm

re:posting what I just said on the previous thread


everything you said in the above post is absolutely right. Sit back cool your heels guys - we are going to have a great year - yes.

But until Gold can out-muscle what the Boys are doing to stocks - we aren't going to get the rally we're hoping for.

All those money managers who make their living from being in the right quartile - this has always been about relative performance - they don't buy gold because for six years it has been dead money - and it has been planned that way by our friends in the Central Banks. Every once in a while I dream of a white knight - someone who will allow price discovery - encourage the same laws for everyone - just a dream. Martin Luther King had a dream - very dangerous for your health.

We are still backing and filling but as good as CGP was to us - it is not playing out correctly for us yet.

Jan 31, 2019 - 12:56pm

Chug Chug

JNUG Got a 29% increase in that position. I'll take it

Fucking Kitco prices SDB is a better test of PM prices Not a big spread between Kitco but SDB is selling PMs. So is Kitco WTF!

Good to see some life in PMs

Jan 31, 2019 - 12:57pm

palladium today

Moved higher in London on renewed physical concerns but is now getting the Comex paper treatment. Look familiar?

Jan 31, 2019 - 1:05pm


When QE1 started at the end of 2008 I expected that the economy would head into inflation and maybe hyperinflation due to the increase in the quantity of currency. I understood that hyperinflation was due to an excessive printing of currency (from the Weimar experience, inter alia) and only subsequently learned that this was a facet of the Austrian school of economists who claimed that "inflation is always a monetary phenomenon".

So thereafter I started to purchase gold and silver as insurance.

However subsequent inflation was modest and not hyper-inflation and I learned that the Fed had "sterilized" this increase in the quantity of currency. They did this by paying interest on the "excess reserves" that banks held at the Fed, in excess of the statutory reserve requirement. The banks also assisted somewhat by making only a limited increase in their loan portfolio. Yet the tinder has been accumulated should the Fed ever lose control of their sterilization programme.

So we have seen an increase of asset prices and a 10 year bull stock market whose maintenance is now essential to keep hedge funds and pension funds somewhat viable. The world having reached peak debt over the past 48 years of unrestrained debt expansion (since the 1971 Nixon shock) has resulted in ZIRP (zero interest) and even negative interest policies. This has promoted cannibalization in the corporate sphere where companies have borrowed cheap money to buyback stock, increase the stock price and richly reward the corporate officers. Talk about perverse collateral damage.

So what will happen with QE4 and can hyperinflation which is being increasingly fueled be staved off forever globally? Damned if I know, it's above my pay grade, but there are folks here who have better insight.

Thomas More
Jan 31, 2019 - 1:18pm

Up front

As you know each Saturday there is a manifestation in Paris by the Gilets Jaunes. This Saturday - they have programmed all of the defigured persons to lead the parade. I feel outraged by the ZH post stating that wearing masks will be forbidden now. This site has made a collage of photos to represent a face (warning not pretty)

Jan 31, 2019 - 1:39pm

prices easing back over the past couple of hours

Blame it on the 25¢ rally in the POSX and some short-term profit taking.

Jan 31, 2019 - 1:46pm

For you non subscribers....reading this free post

Don't be a cheapo!

Sign up for this website. It will save you money. Plus Turd F is a good guy and goes out of his way to tell it like it is.

Sign up now!

YOU WILL NOT REGRET IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jan 31, 2019 - 1:49pm

oops Sokoman!

down 45% now that's a serious haircut

Jan 31, 2019 - 1:50pm

Classic miner bullshit

Sokomon just got smashed for 30% when an order to sell 100,000 shares suddenly appeared.

Hilarious. What a unregulated freaking joke this stuff is.

Jan 31, 2019 - 1:51pm

I hope you don't mind, stevediva

I'm going to screenshot that and tweet it.

Jan 31, 2019 - 1:55pm

Turd, millions trading

you know it trades on the Venture right? not sure where you are getting the idea that 100k has caused this drop. Anyway I am happy to try a punt here at 13 cents CDN
Jan 31, 2019 - 1:59pm
Jan 31, 2019 - 2:26pm

John Batchelor needs to try

Colloidal Silver. Whatever he is doing now is obviously not working because his voice gets worse every week. I really learn a lot from his talks with Cohen but at the rate he is going he is going to be speechless soon. Don't want that to happen.

Just Keep Stacking. We know we are right!

Angry Chef
Jan 31, 2019 - 2:30pm

Thomas More...Wow...

...quite the collage. Would France be in this position if Le Pen had won the election and not that Globalist pool boy Macron ?

I still think they rigged that election. Le Pen's per-election polling #'s were 14% higher. After the election she finished over 20% down overall. Then they arrested her on bogus charges and bombed here office headquarters. Just an FYI.

Angry Chef
Jan 31, 2019 - 2:32pm
Jan 31, 2019 - 2:35pm


time to add to the position - down 40%. Perhaps Craig can ask Sprott about this big drop.

Angry Chef
Jan 31, 2019 - 2:35pm

RickshawETF...Silver Chart

I noticed that as well. Turds Silver chart has been running .25-.30 behind the spot price for a couple of day's now. Gold seems to be within a few cents. The Silver Chart seems to be in " backwardization".

Jan 31, 2019 - 3:07pm

Treasury yields, question?

I am sure this has been discussed but anyway, all the treasury yields are falling like a rock, they say there is a real flight to safety, quality (pardon me for a second, that was hard to type), maybe some but that would be more a reflection on how bad everything else is. Is the Fed influencing these down? Certainly in their best interest to do so, huge market but printing money is no problem and I just have to believe they are being massaged down. Big moves too. thanks Joe


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Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
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4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

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