If you've been following along since late last year, then you know there is nothing about the current action, economic climate or Fed policy that is unexpected. Therefore, it's very important to note that this is still just the initial rally of 2019. There will always be pullbacks and mini-corrections but this is going to be a very good year for us so you must remain patient and engaged.
I suppose that I don't have to post this link again but I will just in case there are a few of you who missed it. This post was written on Thursday the 10th and posted on Monday the 14th. Like the "GAN2017" and the "Three Themes of 2018", this was meant to serve as your roadmap for the months ahead.
So here we are. As discussed in yesterday's podcast, Fed policy is changing precisely as we expected it to and now we are on course for future rate cuts and even a resumption of QE. Your key money shot from Powell's press conference? See below:
POWELL: (when) "the need for balance sheet growth comes again, there's room to do substantially more".
— TF Metals Report (@TFMetals) January 30, 2019
That's QE4 he's talking about.
Anyway, there's no sense in rehashing the events of yesterday when there's so much going on today. Thus, let's dig in...
Today's economic data was poor again. Jobless claims soared but that was due to the US government shutdown. More important was the steep drop in the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. And don't be fooled by new home sales. This number only rose because prices fell dramatically. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-31/chicago-pmi-plunges-2-year-lows
The WGC is out with their annual gold demand report. You can read it here:
@TFMetals you might be interested in the findings of our latest #GoldDemandTrends report, which saw annual gold demand gain 4% on the back of the highest central bank buying in 50 years. Download here: https://t.co/fFn0UrQCzD pic.twitter.com/7uEItLghL6
— World Gold Council (@GOLDCOUNCIL) January 31, 2019
The key takeaway? Global central banks added the more gold to their reserves in 2018 than they had in over 50 years! See this: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gold-wgc/central-banks-bought-more-go... Again and as we repeatedly state, if sovereign nations are actively converting dollar reserves into physical gold, shouldn't YOU be doing the same?!?
As far as prices go, everything is following through nicely today...BUT...we are getting very near our initial rally price goals first laid out for you back in November. We expected a run in CDG to $1310-1330 and I have a high today of $1330.15. We expected CDS to move through $15, head toward the 200-day, move next to $16 and then finally to $16.40. I have a high today of $16.20 so we're getting close there, too.
Nothing would make me happier than to simply continue higher day after day but we all know that that's NOT how the Comex gold and silver markets operate. Additionally, if you're attempting to trade, NEVER forget this tried and true TFMR adage: "Always be prepared to sell some when things looks rosiest and but some when things look dismal". Tomorrow brings the BLSBS and it would be terrific if we could continue along and close the week above these levels. HOWEVER, if the BLSBS exceeds expectations by even a little, it will serve as an excuse for some Spec washing and a drop back to at least $1320. So, don't get complacent. (Of course, if you're simply stacking and holding as I am, mini-corrections in 2019 will simply serve as a prime opportunity to buy the dip.)
As mentioned above, Comex Digital Gold is now right at the top of the price target range that we first laid out over two months ago. As we discussed in yesterday's podcast, though an extra extension to $1337 would seem to make sense, this may be as far as we go for a little while.
As for Comex Digital Silver, I still think we get all the way to the 200-week and the 2016 downtrend line before The Banks attempt to slam the door. It will likely need the momentum of the coming mid-February bullish cross to break through in a few weeks.
It has gotten really late as I've been dealing with a bunch of MamaFerg details before and during the construction of this post. I'd better cut this short and stop here so that we can get this posted asap. However, be sure to check back later for your daily podcast summary and review as there are many more details we need to discuss regarding the metals and the shares.
More later,
TF
p.s. Due to the circumstances, I thought we'd make this a public post as an example of what we do here every day. Membership at TFMR is just $12/month or 40¢/day and a subscription in 2019 has never been more valuable. Therefore and for a limited time, all new subscribers have an opportunity to receive half off their first month subscription. Simply visit this page: www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe and then enter the coupon code MAXOUT2019 at checkout. Now's the time to join us at TFMR. 2019 and 2020 are going to be terrific years for precious metal investors. Don't miss out on the fun!
