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Thursday Conversation - Steve St. Angelo

A discussion of energy, production costs and precious metal prices.

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Longtime friend of TFMR, Steve St. Angelo of the SRSrocco Report, joins us today for an insightful and informative Thursday Conversation.

As is the usual format, I primarily asked Steve to address three specific concerns:

  1. The crude oil market and how this current price plunge may impact not only inflation expectations but the entire US economy.
  2. The input costs of the average gold and silver miner and how falling energy prices can impact production costs and quarterly earnings.
  3. Global retail precious metal demand trends and how prices impact physical demand.

I think you'll find this podcast to be quite interesting and I encourage you to give it a thorough listen. When you're finished, you should be sure to check out the SRSrocco Report including this great new article with embedded video that Steve just posted yesterday: https://srsroccoreport.com/gold-silver-the-markets-whats-next-for-2019/

TF

  28 Comments

sengfarmer · Dec 6, 2018 - 4:36pm

Gold?

1st

NW VIEW · Dec 6, 2018 - 4:45pm

Calling Al Gore!

   Global warming is not working in my neck of the woods.  Winters seem to be getting colder and not warmer.  I walked out into 18 degree air this morning and my old bones are starting to ache a bit.   My sister lives on the sound and she thinks the tides are a little bit higher than 30 years ago but it looks the same to me.   

When will Al push for funds because of 'global cooling'?     I think I would like the temp to be 2 degrees higher than 2 more degrees colder. Many snow birds go south for this time of the year and that is looking better every winter.   Air quality is an issue and if you have been to China or Russia or the Ukraine, we would know where the air is not healthy, and much of the world would be cleaner "if" they would just clean up their industries.   All of the American funds, that Al wants, will not reduce foreign pollution. jmo     Jim

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

D'Souza Stumps Student On Climate Change
Mr. Fix · Dec 6, 2018 - 5:08pm

LOL NW VIEW

The global warming scam is only designed to steal your money, just like everything else the parasitical megalomaniacal psychopaths who  rule this world can think of.

They're not going to fix anything, and they'll shoot anyone who tries, until the people rise up with tar, feathers, ropes, and pitchforks.

Marchas45 · Dec 6, 2018 - 5:19pm

4th

KEEP STACKING

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/AgonizingWhirlwindIaerismetalmark-max-1mb.gif

4 Investigations Share a Common Thread
NW VIEW Mr. Fix · Dec 6, 2018 - 5:25pm

Mr. Fix, getting ahead of the curve!

It may be that we should join forces, one on the west coast and one on the east coast.  We will set up a new gofundme account, using bitcoin only, and seeking big bitcoin bucks for our "global cooling" business.  Y ou know "FIX&JIM's Global Solutions".   We could even set up a 501c3 system, and encourage the wealthy to seek a tax deduction.  When the public finally sees that the whole global warming is a scam, we will already be set up for a windfall.   We will show continual videos of kids and their mothers, freezing from the cold summers, around the globe and will even get the data from the experts.  

Oh well, even in joking, that still is an evil new company and I will just keep wearing my winter coat and my gloves.    Jim

AGXIIK · Dec 6, 2018 - 6:04pm

GLOBAL MINIMUM, MAUNDER MINIMUM, DALTON MINIMUM EDDY MINIMUM

The historical facts of these solar sunspot energy output cycles,  also known as the Minimum,  because of the effect on the mean global temperature indicates we are about 4 years into the Eddy Minimum.  The global cooling cycle has started, creating some very substantial cycles in weather, heat, cold, droughts and floods. 

These Minimums also coincide with the rise in seismic activity, volacanism and earth quakes.  These result from the ebb and flow of the energies that surround us, emanating from the sun as well as cosmic rays and other energetic sources that cause a great amount of seismic action.

The Eddy Minimum could last 11, 22 or 44 years.  If it's as bad as the Maunder Minimum we will see another mini-ice age. If it's less severe the effects will still produce massive negative changes in weather than impact critical agricultural production, leading to mal nutrition and starvation.  

A little study of these cycles leaves me concerned about the cost of  energy to heat homes, run transportation and industries and provide feedstocks.  A shortage in petroleum production due to low prices as well as the difficulty of pulling tight oil from fracking and tar sands, these problems discussed by Steve coincide with the drop in overall global temperatures. 

If  the decline is only 2-3 degrees we will suffer tremendous hardships,  If it's more than 3-4 degrees we will see a crises that causes war, the fall of entire civilizations and destruction on a scale not seen in 500 years or more. 

Frankly, our whole world depends cheap oil and a benign environment with stable or slightly rising temperatures, just the right conditions that produced the greatest growth in population, global warmth, agriculture and technological revolutions.   Cold kills  and destroys food crops.   The death toll of a serious global minimum would defy description, something only found in books and research papers devoted to the study of archeological meteorology  Even today 2,000,000,000 people are utterly dependent on regular growing cycles, knowing they live on the ragged edge of famine if they have a failure of one growing cycle can leave an entire country without adequate nutrition  Food  survival support from more productive and wealthier countries is only a recent event, made available by industrial farming, cheap oil and the generosity of nations who grow more than they consume.  If the Minimum creates a global drought/cooling/excess rain cycle lasting even 5 years in countries where agriculture was easy pickings, the effect will be nothing short of stories in the history books.

lakedweller2 · Dec 6, 2018 - 6:48pm

AGX...

Sounds like you are describing a change in the climate

waxybilldupp AGXIIK · Dec 6, 2018 - 8:09pm

Eddy Minimum ...

Apparently, my local gas company is anticipating some serious cooling here in northern flyover land.

I'm on a "budget" payment system that charges me a fixed rate for 11 months and then bills a leftover amount to clean-up the total for the year.  Could be more or less depending on how well they guessed.  For the last 2 years, I have been billed $66.00 per month.  December amount to clean-up this year was $26 and change.  Pretty good estimating on their part.

Today, they notified me that my new budget payment will be ........ $105!  A mere 60% increase!

Santa better bring me some long underwear.  I'll be giving them a call tomorrow, to ask for a friend, WTF is going on.  Perhaps natural gas prices doubled recently and I missed it.

Biscuit waxybilldupp · Dec 6, 2018 - 9:32pm

Waxy, natural gas prices ARE

Waxy, natural gas prices ARE up considerably since this time last year.  Under $3.00 last year.  It's bouncing around $4.50 now.  Underground storage, built up in warm months, is below normal.  And, cold weather is forecast.

boomer sooner · Dec 6, 2018 - 10:18pm

Economic fraud hiding somewhere

Yesterday I was picking up parts at the supply house and noticed a flyer from Dewalt and Milwaukee tools, "buy any tool, get a 5 amp 20v battery free".  I bought a $90 drill, it comes with 2-2 amp 20 v batteries and charger, and received an $80 battery free.  Might pick up another tomorrow since I burn 4-6 batteries per year, along with a couple Sawzalls and impacts, the drill is throw away since it doesn't hammer.

Today I'm sitting at the shop making a list and noticed a label on the back of the box, date code 2016-04.  How the heck do I purchase the most popular drill, made 2.5 years ago, in a booming economy?

Wait, there's more.  Today, I'm laying pipe in a ditch.  I measure the space, grab the pipe, mark my cut, and notice a date next to the pressure rating and type of pipe, 07/2017.  The pipe is 3" schedule 40 cellcore.  Probably the most popular size and type used in residential and light commercial drain piping.  WTF?  Over one year old, delivered from distribution center 2 weeks ago to local supply house (yes, I do pay attention to inventory due to some places running out just when I need stuff).

I don't know what is going on, but something is not right.  This type of stuff doesn't sit on a rack for the time it has without some bs.

AngryCitizen Biscuit · Dec 6, 2018 - 11:46pm

Nat Gas $

Is pretty low in the Permian Basin. I'm waiting for my bill to come, as the kids keep bumping the heat up every time I turn around. Last I heard, gas companies just to the south were PAYING buyers to take the stuff off their hands.... 

NW VIEW boomer sooner · Dec 7, 2018 - 12:04am

@ boomer sooner

Add this to your list.  A few months ago, we were paying $18/sheet of OSB and now you may buy as much as you want for just over $8.

cashonly · Dec 7, 2018 - 5:40am

Truth or Propaganda?

I don't know if this is the truth or propaganda but either way it is unsettling:

https://www.rt.com/news/445731-new-pax-americana-pompeo/

Angry Chef · Dec 7, 2018 - 7:58am
Angry Chef · Dec 7, 2018 - 8:00am

Thought of the Day

"I set to work to read the Act of Parliament by which the Bank of England was created. The investors knew what they were about. Their design was to mortgage by degrees the whole of the country...lands...houses...property...labour. The scheme has produced what the world never saw before -- starvation in the midst of abundance." -- William Cobbett, "The Political Register", XVIII, July 14 th, 1810.
· Dec 7, 2018 - 8:36am

BLSBS

Comes in at 155,000 vs exp of 198,000

Average hourly earnings up 0.2% vs exp of +0.3%

Feb19 gold now taps $1251. Now $1249 +$5.50

Mickey · Dec 7, 2018 - 9:43am

JOBS

average weekly hours down 0.1 hours-sounds like nothing, huh?

with 156 million said to be working, that's a lot of hours lost-15.6 million per week-with average workweek at 34.5 hours----that's the equivalent of ~450,000 workers -

my guess is that a lot of xmas jobs added at 8 hours a week. those hours can go up or down depending on how busy the business is.

also just wondering why if retailers need staff just in case, why not offer OT hours???

will be interesting to see CBO report today or early next week on payroll tax receipts for Oct and Nov-with all the jobs added and roughly a 3% wage inflation, the payroll taxes should be solidly up.

Payroll taxes we all remember are based on amounts paid to employees, the 7.65% tax withheld for Soc Sec and Medicare, matched by employer. Separate from income taxes withheld.

· Dec 7, 2018 - 9:53am

prices popping

Note, too, that palladium has regained all of yesterday's losses.

Angry Chef · Dec 7, 2018 - 9:58am

"I Know Where All The Bodies Are Buried": Clinton Foundation...

...CFO Spills Beans To Investigators

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-06/i-know-where-all-bodies-are-bu...

Oh my...this guy needs to listen to this. Otherwise he may have one of those unfortunate accidental suicides.

CLINTON BODY COUNT
Biscuit AngryCitizen · Dec 7, 2018 - 10:12am

Not just that

I've read those stories of being paid to take gas, too.  And, across the line in New Mexico, where regulations are less cumbersome, huge amounts of gas is going to the flare.  It's too bad that there aren't storage facilities or liquefaction plants available (or adequate pipelines to get the oil out of there).

pabste · Dec 7, 2018 - 11:07am

A little "Christmas Cheer" for Turdistan?

Hilarious Trump Christmas Parody “It’s The Most Wonderful Time in 8 Years” - Dana Kamide
mgilbert · Dec 7, 2018 - 12:56pm

KL Jan 18 / 2019 22.50 strike

Im still holding these and they are now profitable.  I am tempted to hold these until Jan in hope for start of end year / Jan rally.  Any Thoughts?  The Sprott interview and consensus about the end of year rally is leaning me to hold.  My weakness is knowing when to sell.  Im the type of guy to just loose everything from holding and wishing for the best.   The Sprott interview and consensus about the end of year rally and upcoming KL news release is leaning me to hold.  Wish you all the best!

garth mgilbert · Dec 7, 2018 - 1:57pm

@mgilbert

What i see is that tax-loss selling is well under way and there are buyers jumping in (like myself) whenever a really good deal pops up.  The great deals will happen throughout the month.

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