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The setup for the big trade

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Tue, Oct 30, 2018 - 12:49pm
zman
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EU GDP

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-30/eurozone-gdp-hits-4-year-low-i... "only 0.2% in Q3" Yeah, this roaring EU economy is going to get that Euro trading higher right after the election, isn't that correct Jim?? Those European stock markets will really enable them to hike rates and cut off QE, right Jim? The EU is in big trouble, they're going to start losing tax revenue (from declining stock markets) and since they MUST have almost no government deficits, all the countries are going to have to CUT spending which is going to throw all of the EU into recession. This is where the US is also headed, declining asset prices will = less tax revenue= spending cuts for the peasants. The ultimate result will be 0% GDP and 0% interest rates- just like the EU today.
Tue, Oct 30, 2018 - 9:06pm (Reply to #11529)
Solsson
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Solsson wrote:

Solsson wrote:
Israelites Exodus from Egypt in 1446 BC:

either I'm in sync with a new number or I got OCD cheeky

Wed, Oct 31, 2018 - 11:38am
zman
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Dow/Gold Ratio

Well, the Dow/Gold ratio touched the 200 DMA intraday a few days ago and then bounced upward very strongly, what does that tell us?

I believe it tells us that the Dow/Gold ratio is ready to make new all-time highs like it has every time it has bounced off the 200 DMA.  So yes, it means new highs for stocks and lower prices for gold.   

If the ratio broke through the 200 DMA, it would have been a whole different story, but obviously it didn't.    It appears to be just another correction in a long term bull market for stocks and most likely new lows for gold.  

Wed, Oct 31, 2018 - 3:25pm
Pete
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Some Action/Reaction charts on financial markets

Here are some recent Andrews/Babson charts on financial markets

USDX    2yr Note    30yr Bonds    30yr Bonds
 

Wed, Oct 31, 2018 - 7:19pm
Pete
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Dec gold Weds

A very near-term a/r look at Dec Gold

Wed, Oct 31, 2018 - 8:40pm
Solsson
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I am using a slightly

I am using a slightly different method to detect turn points than others. We bounced off 144 twice yes

Wed, Oct 31, 2018 - 9:18pm
Solsson
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and this is exactly how it

and this is exactly how it works. Just wait for a slap in the face.

The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy - No Ideas Imagination Theories

I like the number of 1446 "... your prosperity is guaranteed" lol

https://youtu.be/4906UMoP1lc?t=100

starting to be-lie-ve this stuff too, but what if the vibrant angles are not very good traders? We just entered the month of 911 Novem-ber the 11th month reboot, death and resurrection. This reminds me of a death/resurrection chart from the past ...

Tue, Nov 6, 2018 - 1:04am
Pete
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Dec Gold

The latest price action fits the classic Andrews pattern/concept of a Major pivot high followed by a power zoom down at a p1 followed by a p2 at/near the new possible upper MLH (UH).  The zoom rule suggests the z! low will be exceeded--if pivot 2 is indeed in place (it would be only a m0 pivot). 

Price must close above the recent high M to change the near-term trend back up.  

Tue, Nov 6, 2018 - 7:56am
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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Finally an end to the cricket

Finally an end to the cricket and tumbleweed song cheeky

Interesting day today and also week and weekend ...

Deflationary crash, Inflationary boost or a Stagflationary standstill? This is not my area of expertise.
Gold&Silver related stuff looks cheap to me. I try not to care too much about other things out there.

Tue, Nov 6, 2018 - 12:06pm
zman
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Oil DOWN

Check out WTI oil, now down to $61.50 and down -17% in the past 4 weeks.   Key support lies around $54,  if that breaks watch out.  

Can someone please explain how investors should be afraid of inflation and higher rates when commodities are tanking?   

This is all part of the deflating process,  we're going to have low "growth" and low "inflation" to keep interest rates lower from here, there's no other choice. 

Can the stock market deal with this potential economic weakness?  Well, lower costs and lower interest rates just might hold the stock market up.  

In other news, the Dow/Gold ratio continues to move HIGHER.  I expect this ratio to capture new highs before year end, most likely even this month. 

Tue, Nov 6, 2018 - 1:02pm (Reply to #11541)
ancientmoney
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Lower interest rates?

If we do have lower interest rates, it should help prop up stocks.  But check this out:

https://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty110618.html

MA is saying November 22, 2018 is the day the bond market collapses.  This means higher interest rates, not lower.  I didn't buy the $8.99 video, but I'll trust Moriarty got the date right since he did watch it.

I wonder how Norm feels about this...

Tue, Nov 6, 2018 - 3:35pm
zman
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Interest rates

Here's something to take into consideration, the Fed started hiking rates in Dec. of 2015.  One would THINK that after 8 rate hikes over almost 3 years, that the 30 year bond would be substantially HIGHER in yield, but it's NOT, it's slightly LOWER.

What does this tell us?   It tell us that after all of the stock market going higher, the Trump Booming Economy and the fear of inflation are all false narratives.   

It's very simple, we can NOT live with interest rates higher than today, it's mathematically impossible.  They're purposely draining the system of US dollars and deflating the whole global economy.   This will result in huge deficits and then ultimately massive spending cuts to the peasants.   This will kill demand and bring interest rates where they want it, basically 0% or negative- just like the EU today.  

Bond bears are the big fools here,  once they are forced to cover, rates are going to make all-time lows.   It doesn't matter how much debt the US and others are forced to issue, the buyers will be plentiful at silly low rates.   It's Joe Six-Pack that will pay the economic price in this likely scenario. 

Wed, Nov 7, 2018 - 4:23am
Solsson
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New moon today and that means

New moon today and that means a new cycle ...

Wed, Nov 7, 2018 - 5:33am
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Yes indeed

 ... and I for one will be paying very close attention to short term inflections (which have enhanced potential to cascade up the scales for a period) during this and next cycle.

Translated: breaks and turns are not to be diminished in perceived importance until clarity returns. Stops !!

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Nov 7, 2018 - 4:50pm
zman
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Mr. Troll

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-united-states-is-going-broke/

Oh, another masterpiece from Rickards here.  

"For elites, there is really only one way out at this point is,  and that's inflation"

Seriously Jim, the elite are going to destroy the debt they own by inflating gold to $5000 oz?     Not gonna happen.    They own the debt and they have the debt slaves paying for it, why in the world would they want to destroy that scenario?     It took 40 years to get almost every citizen into a debt slave, they're not going to piss it away.

Jim knows this as well, this is pure propaganda and nothing else.   Why haven't they done it with fiscal policy yet?    Because it's too profitable to keep the status quo. 

We're going to see more deflation and lower interest rates, we're going to see the velocity of money in the dumps. we're going to see lower commodity prices.    And the real fun will start when the peasants are going to experience "spending cuts".  

There are no inflationary policies either, NO reduction in trade deficits, NO infrastructure spending, NO limits on immigration.   Deflation will remain the theme for many years and decades to come, the elite have NO choice. 

Fri, Nov 9, 2018 - 4:51am (Reply to #11546)
fahrenheit451
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Great Zmam, thanks

maybe you should repeat the same thing another 400 times in this thread.  Then everyone will agree with you because you’ll be the only voice left. 

You guys will see. That’s why he been eventually booted from every forum he participates in. This thread will become the “zman” thread where he repeats the same thing a million times browbeating any contrary opinion with the same post  again and again and again 

poor argentus. Started this awesome thread. It’s over now. The infidels have discovered paradise. 

Fri, Nov 9, 2018 - 12:20pm (Reply to #11547)
my mothers keeper
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This thread is far from over.

Zman doth protest too much, but it strikes me that he is trying to convince himself!  That's fine.  He probably has a lot on the line. 

I am here to hear what Argentus has to say, so I just read other's posts and wait to hear from Argentus.

Fri, Nov 9, 2018 - 1:07pm (Reply to #11547)
zman
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fahrenheit451 wrote:

fahrenheit451 wrote:

maybe you should repeat the same thing another 400 times in this thread.  Then everyone will agree with you because you’ll be the only voice left. 

You guys will see. That’s why he been eventually booted from every forum he participates in. This thread will become the “zman” thread where he repeats the same thing a million times browbeating any contrary opinion with the same post  again and again and again 

poor argentus. Started this awesome thread. It’s over now. The infidels have discovered paradise. 

That's wonderful,  now tell us your market and economic view points and we can have a civil discussion about it.  I'm very open minded, make a decent case and change my outlook.  Or just make insults and run away, it's your choice. 

Fri, Nov 9, 2018 - 7:56pm
fahrenheit451
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Fortunately....

I don’t live in a binary world so I’ll offer another choice. How about I read your opinion, digest it, even accept much of it, appreciate your opinions, and STILL want you to shut the fuck up and stop bludgeoning the board with essentially the same point again and again to anyone that offers anything resembling a contrary outlook. I don’t need to disagree and on many points do not. But I’m still sick of this turning into your thread. You have a popular following, why not go start your own? It will be active and lively and I may even participate. But you’re messing this thread up with massive repition and overparticipation. Dig?
Sat, Nov 10, 2018 - 2:20am
Pete
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Action/reaction drama in Comex Silver

Will silver turn higher from the latest r1 line?  We will need to see a higher close and subsequent continuation above r1 for confirmation.  (We did get an hourly reversal signal higher on Friday from the r1 line, but without a volume reversal.)

Some thoughts about the chart patterns:

Is the 0-1-2-3-4-5 sequence from the Sep low a possible Elliott leading diagonal (a w1)?

Do the many pivots between p5 and Friday's low, along with the expanded pivot formation and the advance warning indicator (zoom up at px), improve the odds of a major pivot P2 low here, near the latest r1 line?

Price made a  major pivot high on Oct 2 very close to the r1 line of the major decline, after 5 pivots.  That high has not been exceeded intraday (nor on a close, obviously), so the probability of an equal or lower low than Sep 11 remains on the table.

Maybe we get such a low.  But if we also get a close equal to or higher than Friday's, a strong buy signal would be triggered on any continuation higher.  On the other hand, a potential collapse in the price comes with a breakdown (early?) next week with no recovery above r1 on a close.

Will the shorts cover or not?  

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